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WEEKEND FOCUS

Vehicle: CRUDE WEAKENESS

SII OIL Weekly Dec 23, 2014 by TRIGGERS.ca on TradingView.com

 
     

 

Is Energy's Dead Cat Bounce Over?

On an equal-weighted basis, the energy sector has still been the best performing sector in February. It is nearly 7% higher this month, however, it has been the worst performing sector so far this week (-1.5%).

MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

Only 14% of energy stocks are positive this year but shorter term momentum has improved. Unfortunately, it has improved to the point where momentum tends to stall out. 75% of energy stocks are now trading above its 50-day moving average. 80% tends to be an unsustainable level for very long. 


image


image


Longer term momentum still looks pretty weak. Only 19% of energy stocks are trading above its 100-day moving average and only 9% of stocks are trading above its 200-day moving average.


image


image


Lastly, only 6% of stocks have a 50-day moving average trading above its 200-day moving average. This series needs to turn higher before we would feel confident that the bearish trend in energy stocks has turned. In the chart below we chart this series against the six month returns of the MSCI Energy sector.


image

02-14-15 SII

 

Big Cyclical Bounce Last Week (Week of Feb 02) Led By Energy

We had a big bounce in cyclical sectors last week in the MSCI World Index. On an equal-weighted basis, the energy sector outperformed the MSCI World Index by over 6% last week. The second best performing sector was financials (+3.12%) and the the third best performing sector was materials (+2.78%). The bottom of the leader board is made up of counter-cyclical sectors. Utilities was the only sector that finished the week in the red (-1.96%), while consumer staples (+0.59%) and health care (+0.70%) rounded out the laggards. Year-to-date, health care remains the best performing sector (+4.08%) and energy (+0.36) has finally moved out of last place and into positive territory for the year. Utilities (-0.57%) has been the worst performing sector so far in 2015. 


MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

MSCI World Index Performance By Sector

image

The performance story in the emerging markets last week was similar, it just wasn't as extreme. Energy (+3.16%) was the best performing sector followed closely by materials (+3.14%). However, the third best performing sector was a counter-cyclical sector. Consumer staples ended the week 1.83% higher. The average stock in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index ended the week 1.02% higher. The worst performing sector last week was health care (-2.40%) followed by utilities (-2.15%). Year-to-date, information technology (+5.23%) is the best performing sector followed by energy (+4.18%) and consumer staples (+3.5%). Utilities is by far the worst performing sector in the emerging markets. It is down 5.27% so far this year while the second worst performing sector, financials, is only down 0.75%. 


MSCI Emerging Markets Index Performance By Sector

image

MSCI Emerging Markets Index Performance By Sector

image

 

02-14-15 SII  
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Feb. 8th, 2015 - Feb. 14th, 2015      
RISK REVERSAL     1
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     2
BOND BUBBLE     3
02-12-15   3- Bond Bubble
02-12-15   3- Bond Bubble

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

4

SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS [Euope Crisis Tracker]     5
CHINA BUBBLE
    6
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market
TECHNICALS & MARKET

 

   
STUDIES - MACRO pdf      
02-11-15 EARNINGS
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

02-10-15 THESIS

 

STATISM

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

02-09-15

THESIS

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS   THEME
02-13-15 THEMES

FLOWS

SHADOW BANKING -LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE   THEME  
CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM   THEME  
PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX -NATURE OF WORK   THEME  
STANDARD OF LIVING -EMPLOYMENT CRISIS   THEME  
CORPORATOCRACY -CRONY CAPITALSIM   THEME

CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE -MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
SOCIAL UNREST -INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT   THEME  
SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX -STATISM   THEME  
GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY   THEME  
CENTRAL PLANINNG -SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER   THEME  
CATALYSTS -FEAR & GREED   THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

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US DOLLAR

 

 

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Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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