Geo-Political Event Risk is beginning to dominate the Short to Intermediate Global Risk Assessment. Risks are associated with:
The ISIS State,
An escalating Ukraine-Russia, East-West Conflict,
Growing intractable deflation issues in Europe and Japan,
A Strengthening US$ based on an increasing global flight to perceived safety,
Volatility in the Credit markets with Collateral and Liquidity once again showing worrying signs as the US TAPER programs comes to and end,
The continuing threat of a hard landing in China and ASEAN based on slowing global growth,
The destabilizing impact of falling oil and energy costs to energy exporters such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico
A quickly weakening US economy as the only beacon of global strength..
Our proprietary Aggregated Risk Levels increased for the first time in two years, primarily due to increasing Credit Default Spreads (CDS), weakening US Housing and reversing Leading Economic Indicators.
The EBOLA pandemic threat and economic warnings from the IMF, World Bank, BIS and OECD all suggest the world is increasingly becoming more complex, interconnected and unstable. With 100M Unemployed, 300M young people neither working nor studying, 447M working poor and 600M new jobs required for population growth alone the recent G20 summit faced daunting problems with no solutions.
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It isn’t so much that they have stopped because in fact they have increased signifcantly. However, they have dmininshed in relative importance. Why? Because of the size of money now involved.
As one blatant example, the total settlements on mortgage penalties (at the root of the 2008 Financial Crisis) paid by the banks adds up to about $106 Billion. About $32 Billion of that may go to actually help borrowers. However, foreclosure actions totaled $2.8 TRILLION! Bank penalties were less than 4% of the foreclosure actions. Bank profits on what has been found in court to have been a crime are miniscule in comparison to the size of profits earned!
Maybe even worse, no one went to jail, executive bonuses paid out for these activities were not “clawed back” and no one was even fired! This is because of the new Crony Tribute System.
To understand how the new Crony Tribute System works we need to understand its roots and evolution.
Intermediate-Term Top is likely now in (though not confirmed)
Expect the Long-Term Top by Mid 2015
We believe the Intermediate Top is now in and our long discussed "M" Top is now underway. We have already seen a 4.8% correction but expect to see 8% before this corrective / consolidation is over in late OCtober early November. The signals to watch CONTINUE TO BE:
A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
Increasing event & headline risk events.
BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTION GAME (To Control MArket Volatility),
GLOBAL ECONOMY CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE,
EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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