Falling Energy prices are not getting the visibility they should. This is a major Geo-Economic development on a number of fronts:
The global slowdown is now so evident that OPEC feels it can't reduce supply for fear of further stalling the global economy with their economies highly dependent on energy prices remaining above $80-$100/bl,
The drop in WTI crude prices now makes the majority of US Shale oil wells un-profitable which will impact US energy supply,
The rise in the US dollar has clearly impacted energy bought and sold in only US$ due to the Petro$$ agreements. The emerging economies which are dependent on energy exports are now caught with loan payments in a rising US$ and energy receipts in falling US$ value,
Energy Corporations are a major component of equity markets and now have serious profit and capital exposures,
Russia will be driven into a steepening recession and will be forced to escalate tensions with the west, in some fashion.
These and other associated developments have the potential of destabilizing an already tenuous global im-balance.
Global monetary direction has now reversed and easing has become the dominate theme with shocking central bank announcements in Japan, China and the EU. The US$ as a consequence has become the recipient of the expectations of loosening credit standards while the US stands pat (or at least is perceived to be holding the line on further Fed balance sheet expansion). A further strengthening US$ will add additional destabilizing pressures.
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Macro Watch is a video newsletter published quarterly by Richard Duncan. It analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on economic activity and asset prices.
In this new age of fiat money, credit growth drives economic growth, liquidity determines the direction of asset prices and the government controls both through aggressive policy intervention.
Macro Watch analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy with the goal of anticipating economic developments and their impact on the financial markets.
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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