Let’s start by making it clear that the Ukraine problem, which has created the Crimean conflict, is about the ongoing Petrodollar battle within the US$ Reserve Currency War. The War has been underway since Saddam Hussein threatened to sell Iraq oil in Euros. It was thrust again at us when Muammar al-Gaddafi was planning to sell Libyan gas and oil denominated in gold.
The Ukraine situation is a geo-political battle which bridges battles over multiple issues that could be best considered as “choke points”
The strategic choke points are:
GAS: Pipelines versus LNG,
They all tie together when considered in the bigger context of the Petrodollar battle and Reserve Currency war.
Even a cursory examination of the situation will show how militarily strategic the Crimea is to Russia and NATO. To both sides it is a strategic imperative.
To Russia its survival rests on it. To NATO it is the final step in gaining a First Strike advantage. Something that has not been possible since the cold war began and Détente dominated the strategic game board.
(NOTE: Only if Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticipate.)
Our research indicates that liquidity flows turn negative in the Q3 2014 but are still positive in Q2.
Though Risk and Fundamentals signal a major market correction, we anticpate marginally more strength in Q2 before experiencing a turbulent consolidation period in global markets in Q3 and early Q4 2014.
We continue to expect markets to rally after the fall elections into first half 2015 before putting in a Long Term Top. This outlook is premised on continued liquidity expansion through central bank balance sheet expansion and easy credit.
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