Our Aggregated Risk Index has confirmed it has reversed and is now increasing. It is additionally above the "5" threshold which is considered elevated. The Leading Economic Indicators (ECRI's LEI) and US Macro have deteriorated noticeably. We also note worsening activity in the Credit Markets and a TED spread increase. Caution is advised.
Our Tipping Point Assessment specifically shows an increase in the risk areas of the Bond Bubble, Risk Reversal and China's Hard Landing.
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a clear blow to US foreign policy leadership. It must be seen as an major "Anit-US Movement" and the first clear signal of strong and growing global desire for "De-Dollarization". The US is seen to have abused its special privilege as the world's Reserve Currency for too long and other powers are unwilling to go along with US leadership much longer. As a direct result the US was forced to capitulate and apply for membership after being deserted by 33 global powers, including almost all G20 members.
The situations in Yemen, the Ukraine, Syria (ISIS) and the Iranian nuclear talks are all capable of de-stabilizing an already 'fragile'& tenuous financial markets condition. We are on the verge of potentially igniting a new "Colder War" through inept US Foreign Policy.
MORE>> EXPANDED COVERAGE INCLUDING AUDIO & MONTHLY UPDATE SUMMARY
QE: A FAILED EXPERIMENT - A Macro Experiment De-Stabilizng the Micro
The CEO of the global shipping giant Maersk, which handles nearly a fifth of all global seaborne freight, was recently cited:
“Global growth is rather abysmal and will likely continue to depress demand the world over”.
A disheartened CEO Skou went so far as to say that “the days of 10% container growth for his industry are probably gone forever!”
What was very telling was that despite this, he is planning on buying more ships in what the London Financial Times tries to explain, as his effort to “help the company maintain its market leadership position.” What CEO Skou was really announcing was an all out war to eliminate the competition.
He who has access to cheap money will win this war of shrinking growth and margins by increasing market share. Eventually, market share traditionally translates to higher margins for the victors, once the losers are vanquished.
We can draw two conclusions from his comments:
Global Demand is slowing dramatically,
Corporations can be expected to look for competitive advantage via cheap financing.
During 2013, the Fed printed $1 trillion and the S&P 500 Index rose 30%. During 2014, the Fed printed $450 billion and the S&P rose 11%. Monetary tightening began with the end of QE 3. Since 31 October 2014, when QE 3 ended, the S&P is flat.
What all of this has done is left us in suspended animation! The market is now vulnerable to a sharp correction given stretched valuations, the weak economy and contracting corporate earnings.
2015 will actually be the first year since 2007 without some form of quantitative easing! During this six year period the Fed’s Balance Sheet has exploded by over $4 trillion and the US Government has spent another $11+ trillion. Between October and November of last year, the Federal Government issued $1 trillion in new debt in one month.
The bond bubble was $80 trillion going into 2008. Today it’s over $100 trillion. The US had $5 trillion in public debt going into 2008. Today it has over $18 trillion.
Despite all of this the US has experienced the weakest recovery in 80+ years! That is assuming it's really a recovery? Every other recession going back to 1954 saw rates begin to rise a few years into the recovery.
It makes me pause and think that a year without monetizing bonds is going to be a big shock to the financial markets and stock traders.
MORE>> EXPANDED COVERAGE INCLUDING AUDIO & EXECUTIVE BRIEF
TRIGGER$ SUBSCRIBER publications combine both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis together offering unique perspectives on the Global Markets. Every month “Gordon T Long Market Research & Analytics” publishes three reports totalling more then 380 pages of detailed Technical Analysis and in depth Fundamentals. If you find our publications TOO detailed, we recommend you consider TRIGGER$ which edited by GoldenPhi offers a ‘distilled’ version in a readable format for use in your daily due diligence. Read and understand what the professionals are reading without having to be a Professional Analyst or Technician.
TRIGGER$ ALERTS (SPECIAL 2 WEEK TRIAL AVAILABLE - TRIAL - 2 UPDATES PER WEEK)
2 WEEK FREE TRIAL Our Inter-Issue Updates and Alerts are Included with a Monthly Subscription to Triggers. Between issue publication receive updates on Technical Analysis, Economic Analysis and anything note worthy for your trading and investing.
Technical Analysis Alerts would include hitting potential Trigger Points, Pivots orsome progression that requires you immediate attention.
Economic Analysis Updates alert of any fundamental economic events that may have impact on the markets and what to expect.
Inter-Issue Updates and Alerts allow us to keep current with the markets and provide a more fluid and stable ongoing market evaluation.
Technical Updates occur twice a week, Alerts as the markets dictate. Sign-up now
"The Best Value on the Web"
SUBSCRIPTION PLAN 1: MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE ("MMU")
The complete set of Monthly Market Reports.
Includes Plan 2, 3 and 4
12 Monthly Releases: 11 publications per year PLUS Annual Thesis.
We offer a variety of options for your subscription. Although the 'all inclusive' plan is very reasonable, and recommended to see the complete market profile, we recognise everyone has different needs and offer a variety of solutions to choose from.
Plan 1 $19.95/month
TRIGGER$ monthly publication in PDF format
Each month TRIGGER$ publishes Economic & Technical Analysis for traders of all levels and all markets. Whatever your involvement in the markets, our Monthly Publication will bring you up to speed on what you need to know. Global-Macro Analysis, Market Drivers & Triggers aid in your own due diligence. Our unique and proprietary methodologies and analysis offer perspectives and insight far beyond what the main-stream provides. Combining both Global Economics and Technical Analysis for an insight in to the markets not found anywhere else.
Plan 2 $29.95/month
TRIGGER$ monthly publication in PDF format
Access to TRIGGER$ Website
Inter-Issue Updates - S&P 500
Our Website continues on where the monthly publication leaves off. Additional Economic & Technical Analysis, Education, Feature Articles and more market specific areas. Share and learn with other serious traders in the BoardRoom (forums).
Twice weekly receive inter-issue updates on the S&P 500 on a daily and hourly level. Included with updates are the Market Driver, Triggers, and High Probability Target Zones (HPTZ$).
Ongoing technical updates can be found for major world markets, currencies and commodities. Weekly & Long-Term perspective TA includes several methodologies and we identify the Market Driver, Triggers and High Probability Target Zones.
Plan 3: Plan 2 + $18.00/month = $47.95/month
Inter-Issue Updates for US$, EUR/JPY, EUR/US$
Additional Inter-Issue Updates for Currencies and FOREX markets. As with the S&P updates received with Plan 2, Plan3 identifies the Market Driver, Triggers and High Probability Target Zones on Daily and Hourly time scales for the additional markets listed.
These three instruments play an important role across all markets. Following their movement gives additional insight regardless of the market you trade / invest with.
Includes all the services & updates offered in Plans 2 – 4. We recommend this solution regardless of the markets you trade. All markets are connected and their drivers change - knowing how they will influence your own market can make or break you. Having a complete market profile will only aid in your understanding of the markets.
To compliment our Market Analytics & Technical Analysis (MATA) Plan 2 Research Service, we additionally offer TRIGGER$. A Joint Alliance with trading specialists, GoldenPhi.
A Monthly Online Webzine for Traders -- Typically 35 - 38 pages
Twice Weekly Market Updates - Typically 1-2 Pages
Focus for Day and Swing Traders or Position traders looking to improve Entry / Exit timing.
SUBSCRIPTION PLAN 6:
MACRO WATCH with RICHARD DUNCAN
The ONLY Effective Tool Available for Investors in our new world of Central Bank Liquidity to fully Understand FLOWS: Liquidity,Credit & Debt
HOME of the "LIQUIDITY GAUGE"
The definitive source for:
MACRO FLOWS: Liquidity, Credit & Debt
Macro Watch is a video newsletter published quarterly by Richard Duncan. It analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on economic activity and asset prices.
In this new age of fiat money, credit growth drives economic growth, liquidity determines the direction of asset prices and the government controls both through aggressive policy intervention.
Macro Watch analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy with the goal of anticipating economic developments and their impact on the financial markets.
Macro Watch is a video newsletter published four times a year by Richard Duncan. Each issue contains original analysis pertaining to economic and financial developments as they unfold.
MACRO WATCH SUBSCRIPTION: US$500 per year
Subscribers to Macro Watch will receive:
Four issues of Macro Watch a year (one per quarter)
Richard Duncan’s two video courses:
Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained
How The Economy Really Works
Access to all past issues of Macro Watch*
*Please note: the first issue of Macro Watch was for the Fourth Quarter of 2013.
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS: SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.
FAIR USE NOTICEThis site contains
copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically
authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in
our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human
rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We
believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed
without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the
included information for research and educational purposes.
If you wish to use
copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond
'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.