Geo-Political Event Risk is beginning to dominate the Short to Intermediate Global Risk Assessment. Risks are associated with:
The ISIS State,
An escalating Ukraine-Russia, East-West Conflict,
Growing intractable deflation issues in Europe and Japan,
A Strengthening US$ based on an increasing global flight to perceived safety,
Volatility in the Credit markets with Collateral and Liquidity once again showing worrying signs as the US TAPER programs comes to and end,
The continuing threat of a hard landing in China and ASEAN based on slowing global growth,
The destabilizing impact of falling oil and energy costs to energy exporters such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico
A quickly weakening US economy as the only beacon of global strength..
Our proprietary Aggregated Risk Levels increased for the first time in two years, primarily due to increasing Credit Default Spreads (CDS), weakening US Housing and reversing Leading Economic Indicators.
The EBOLA pandemic threat and economic warnings from the IMF, World Bank, BIS and OECD all suggest the world is increasingly becoming more complex, interconnected and unstable. With 100M Unemployed, 300M young people neither working nor studying, 447M working poor and 600M new jobs required for population growth alone the recent G20 summit faced daunting problems with no solutions.
MORE>> EXPANDED COVERAGE INCLUDING AUDIO & MONTHLY UPDATE SUMMARY
Are these bigger and more serious problems than we were seeing while the market was going up?
Is it actually a matter that we are reacting differently because our mood / sentiment have changed for some reason?
Are we unknowingly over focusing on these problems only as a result of the market going down (maybe for other reasons like reduced liquidity flows that no one is talking about - yet)? CONFUSION IS DUE TO DEGREE OF MANIPULATION
The most fundamental problem is that we have:
No Price Effective Market Discovery,
Mispricing of Risk
Malinvestment being hidden by being rolled over. When was the last time we had a bankruptcy? Have they been forbidden or papered over?
There is simply too much middle class turmoil not to be seeing more business failures!
Intermediate-Term Top is likely to be put in within the next 30 days
Expect the Long-Term Top by Late Q3 2015
Last month we thought the Intermediate Top was in and were waiting on confirmation. It turns out it wasn't in the S&P 500 and DJIA. We advised to wait for confirmation and watch the following signals (though clearly Intermedaite tops are confimred in most global markets).
The signals to watch CONTINUE TO BE:
A "Death" Crosses in the 50, 100 and 200 Daily Moving Averages (DMAs),
A curl in our Monthly S&P 500 Primary Trend Chart,
Deteriorating Credit Markets outside of the already failing HY,
Increasing event & headline risk events.
We achieved a 9% correction on our 8% projection. We now expect markets to generally hold there highs until the new year. We expect Q1 TAX DEFERRAL SELLING BEFORE the rise continues. We expect the outside long term strength of our "M" top to complete in late Q3 2015.
BUYBACKS ARE STALLING,
FED IS NOW PLAYING AN OPTIONS GAME (To Control Market Volatility),
GLOBAL ECONOMY & MARKETS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE,
EVERYONE IS ON THE SAME SIDE OF THE BOAT WITH EXCESS CONFIDENCE AND COMPLACENCY
MORE>> EXPANDED COVERAGE INCLUDING AUDIO & EXECUTIVE BRIEF
TRIGGER$ SUBSCRIBER publications combine both Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis together offering unique perspectives on the Global Markets. Every month “Gordon T Long Market Research & Analytics” publishes three reports totalling more then 380 pages of detailed Technical Analysis and in depth Fundamentals. If you find our publications TOO detailed, we recommend you consider TRIGGER$ which edited by GoldenPhi offers a ‘distilled’ version in a readable format for use in your daily due diligence. Read and understand what the professionals are reading without having to be a Professional Analyst or Technician.
TRIGGER$ ALERTS (SPECIAL 2 WEEK TRIAL AVAILABLE - TRIAL - 2 UPDATES PER WEEK)
2 WEEK FREE TRIAL Our Inter-Issue Updates and Alerts are Included with a Monthly Subscription to Triggers. Between issue publication receive updates on Technical Analysis, Economic Analysis and anything note worthy for your trading and investing.
Technical Analysis Alerts would include hitting potential Trigger Points, Pivots orsome progression that requires you immediate attention.
Economic Analysis Updates alert of any fundamental economic events that may have impact on the markets and what to expect.
Inter-Issue Updates and Alerts allow us to keep current with the markets and provide a more fluid and stable ongoing market evaluation.
Technical Updates occur twice a week, Alerts as the markets dictate. Sign-up now
"The Best Value on the Web"
SUBSCRIPTION PLAN 1: MONTHLY MARKET UPDATE ("MMU")
The complete set of Monthly Market Reports.
Includes Plan 2, 3 and 4
12 Monthly Releases: 11 publications per year PLUS Annual Thesis.
We offer a variety of options for your subscription. Although the 'all inclusive' plan is very reasonable, and recommended to see the complete market profile, we recognise everyone has different needs and offer a variety of solutions to choose from.
Plan 1 $19.95/month
TRIGGER$ monthly publication in PDF format
Each month TRIGGER$ publishes Economic & Technical Analysis for traders of all levels and all markets. Whatever your involvement in the markets, our Monthly Publication will bring you up to speed on what you need to know. Global-Macro Analysis, Market Drivers & Triggers aid in your own due diligence. Our unique and proprietary methodologies and analysis offer perspectives and insight far beyond what the main-stream provides. Combining both Global Economics and Technical Analysis for an insight in to the markets not found anywhere else.
Plan 2 $29.95/month
TRIGGER$ monthly publication in PDF format
Access to TRIGGER$ Website
Inter-Issue Updates - S&P 500
Our Website continues on where the monthly publication leaves off. Additional Economic & Technical Analysis, Education, Feature Articles and more market specific areas. Share and learn with other serious traders in the BoardRoom (forums).
Twice weekly receive inter-issue updates on the S&P 500 on a daily and hourly level. Included with updates are the Market Driver, Triggers, and High Probability Target Zones (HPTZ$).
Ongoing technical updates can be found for major world markets, currencies and commodities. Weekly & Long-Term perspective TA includes several methodologies and we identify the Market Driver, Triggers and High Probability Target Zones.
Plan 3: Plan 2 + $18.00/month = $47.95/month
Inter-Issue Updates for US$, EUR/JPY, EUR/US$
Additional Inter-Issue Updates for Currencies and FOREX markets. As with the S&P updates received with Plan 2, Plan3 identifies the Market Driver, Triggers and High Probability Target Zones on Daily and Hourly time scales for the additional markets listed.
These three instruments play an important role across all markets. Following their movement gives additional insight regardless of the market you trade / invest with.
Includes all the services & updates offered in Plans 2 – 4. We recommend this solution regardless of the markets you trade. All markets are connected and their drivers change - knowing how they will influence your own market can make or break you. Having a complete market profile will only aid in your understanding of the markets.
To compliment our Market Analytics & Technical Analysis (MATA) Plan 2 Research Service, we additionally offer TRIGGER$. A Joint Alliance with trading specialists, GoldenPhi.
A Monthly Online Webzine for Traders -- Typically 35 - 38 pages
Twice Weekly Market Updates - Typically 1-2 Pages
Focus for Day and Swing Traders or Position traders looking to improve Entry / Exit timing.
SUBSCRIPTION PLAN 6:
MACRO WATCH with RICHARD DUNCAN
The ONLY Effective Tool Available for Investors in our new world of Central Bank Liquidity to fully Understand FLOWS: Liquidity,Credit & Debt
HOME of the "LIQUIDITY GAUGE"
The definitive source for:
MACRO FLOWS: Liquidity, Credit & Debt
Macro Watch is a video newsletter published quarterly by Richard Duncan. It analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on economic activity and asset prices.
In this new age of fiat money, credit growth drives economic growth, liquidity determines the direction of asset prices and the government controls both through aggressive policy intervention.
Macro Watch analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy with the goal of anticipating economic developments and their impact on the financial markets.
Macro Watch is a video newsletter published four times a year by Richard Duncan. Each issue contains original analysis pertaining to economic and financial developments as they unfold.
MACRO WATCH SUBSCRIPTION: US$500 per year
Subscribers to Macro Watch will receive:
Four issues of Macro Watch a year (one per quarter)
Richard Duncan’s two video courses:
Capitalism In Crisis: The Global Economic Crisis Explained
How The Economy Really Works
Access to all past issues of Macro Watch*
*Please note: the first issue of Macro Watch was for the Fourth Quarter of 2013.
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS: SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.
FAIR USE NOTICEThis site contains
copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically
authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in
our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human
rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We
believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as
provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed
without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the
included information for research and educational purposes.
If you wish to use
copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond
'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.