WHAT ARE TIPPING POINTS?
They are worldwide events and trends that are of global economic importance - specifically to investors.
Six days a week, Gordon's proprietary search engine scours worldwide news and commentary bringing you the most important news intelligence you should be reading to be a knowledgable and well-informed investor.
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ABSTRACTION & SYNTHESIS
It is here where the real elbow grease is applied. Through the processes of ABSTRACTION and SYNTHESIS Gordon delivers numerous series of commentary which pull Tipping Points together into logical, macro-economic trends and themes which are or will be effecting his readers.
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Here are keys to the steps Gordon takes, from beginning to end -- identifying tipping points, then abstracting and synthesesizing themes into commentary.
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KEY: The Research Process
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MACRO ECONOMIC & RISK ANALYSIS
MARCH 2014: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)
THE TAPER TANTRUM TEN - The Fragile Five and Forgotten Ten
This month our cycle called for updating all the year beginning Global Risk Monitors (WEF, IMF, World Bank, OECD) and it was telling to observe that "Inequality" has risen to a major levels of globa concern. It was a dominant theme of world leaders at Davos. This is a theme which our abstraction process has been highlighting for 3 years and our work suggestions will lead to increasing levels of global social unrest and conflict. There are serious economic and financial market impacts of this turmoil.
The Geo-Political problems most evident in the emerging markets (the Fragile 5 and Forgotten 5) are clear evidence of this economic and social turmoil as the world now enters an era of sub 3% growth. This growth level has traditionally reflected a US recession but since the US now is a less dominant trading nation it is suggestive that in fact the slowing global economies may drag the US into a recession (unless US Taper policy is soon altered). We expect the EU to soon adopt an EU version of Quantitative Easing (QE), likely similar to the UK's.
The Geo-Economic issues are highlighted this month by the Ukraine. This area is strategic to the Pertrodollar strategy and needs to be watched carefully. The natural gas and oil flows from Russia all transit the Ukraine and potential disruptions in the region will destabilize EU energy flows and escalate pressures on a "Tran-Syria" pipeline alternative.
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FEBRUARY 2014: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)
The $72 Trillion Global Shadow Banking System is now larger than the global regulated banking system according to the latest study by the Financial Stability Board (FSB). How could an unregulated and opaque industry, which is larger than the entire world’s GDP operate with such little attention? Even the FSB is not a government entity and operates under the auspices of an entity with a highly checkered and mysterious background - The Bank of International Settlements in Basel Switzerland. The FSB has had only two Chairmen since its inception who were able to see the full extent of the operations of this global industry: Mario Draghi who is now head of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Mark Carney who is now the Governor of the Bank of England (BOE). Even Ben Bernanke’s has written on the subject before being quickly catapulted to the Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve.
For those who recall the details of the 2008 Financial Crisis then the fact that it was short term lending problems associated with Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) liquidity used to fund the Structures Investment Vehicles (SIV) that was the catalyst. It was this short term funding that was used to buy what is now euphemistically referred to as toxic waste (CDOs et al).
Dodd-Frank has done absolutely nothing to change any of this despite the CCP (Central Counter Party) exchange, if it is ever implemented. What has changed is that the Shadow Banking System by necessity and with policy makers turning a blind eyed, morphed into something far more dangerous.
MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
FEBRUARY 2014: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)
Expect an Intermediate-Term Top in Early Q2 2014
& A Long-Term Top in Early 2015
(ONLY IF Yellen & the Global Central Banks act in the coordinated "Liquidity Pumping" fashion we anticpate.)
January witnessed the markets begin correcting after the forecasted Santa Claus Rally, precisely inline with out post January 14th, 2014 Macro Trigger$ Zone expectations.
There is mounting evidence that the financial markets are in the early stages of a von Misess "Crackup Boom" in global equity asset prices. Though we expect to see new market highs by Q2 2014, based on a Globally Coordinated Central Bank Monetary intervention, the Crackup Boom will not continue until a Mid Term Election Year Real Defaltion scare pushes markets lower. We expect a final new equity market high in early 2015.
To-date global central banks have not been officially coordinating their monetary actions. However, the global economy is rapidly slowing and the US is likely in or very near a recession (using real economic numbers). China and the Emerging Markets now accounjt for over 50% of global GDP and the realization of the seriousness of their slowdown will soon force central bank action when this eventuality begins to scare the markets and collateral vlaues become impaired.
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