WHAT ARE TIPPING POINTS?
They are worldwide events and trends that are of global economic importance - specifically to investors.
Six days a week, Gordon's proprietary search engine scours worldwide news and commentary bringing you the most important news intelligence you should be reading to be a knowledgable and well-informed investor.
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ABSTRACTION & SYNTHESIS
It is here where the real elbow grease is applied. Through the processes of ABSTRACTION and SYNTHESIS Gordon delivers numerous series of commentary which pull Tipping Points together into logical, macro-economic trends and themes which are or will be effecting his readers.
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Preserve & Protect
Extend & Pretend
Sultans of Swap
You have more data analysis than anyone else writing.
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KEY: What are Tipping Points?
KEY: Abstraction & Synthesis
KEY: The Research Process
KEY: Understanding The Conclusions - Global-Macro in Pictures
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MACRO ECONOMIC & RISK ANALYSIS
MAY 2013: GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINT - (Subscription Plan III)
PEAK CONSUMPTION : The Era of a 70% US Consumption Economy Are Over
A Global Governance failure is now evident through failing Monetary, Fiscal and Public Policy. The era of 'Extend and Pretend", "Kick-the Can-Down-the-Raod" and "Fake it Until You make It" is coming home to roost. Prior bad policy decisons are now being complicated by further flawed decisons.
The US Recovery has ended and the Economy is rolling over. US Macro Indicators and the Citi Surprise Index are confirming the significance and speed of the rollover. Confidence and Sentiment though already at historic low levels once again plummeted further in the most recent Consumer Confidence and Michigan Sentiment surveys. Retail Sales, Durable Orders and Capital Expenditures are all trending lower matched by slowing rail and shipping port traffic. The impact of not extending the Payroll Tax Holiday is now clearly being seen. Though the market continues to move higher, earnings are deteriorating due to slowing top line growth and the resulting margin pressure. Economic and Market divergences are seen almost everywhere, which must eventually be reconciled.
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APRIL 2013: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY (Subscription Plan II)
A GLOBAL GOVERNANCE FAILURE :The relentless Failure of Monetary, Fiscal And Public Policy
I put the graphic to the right together in early 2010. We were still in a state of shock at the time with the financial crisis. I was writing a series of articles then entitled "Extend & Pretend". They are all up on my site in the commentary section. What was very clear and extremely worrying to me at the time was that we were not addressing the problems. We were avoiding the hard decisions.
We were confusing major structural issues with short cyclical issues. We were married to Keynesian dogma that failed to understand the extent to which credit creation through the shadow banking system had distorted sound money. We failed to fully understand the issues associated with global trade imbalances, an eroding US dollar reserve position, out of control fiscal accountability & budgeting, a complete breakdown in regulatory supervision and the list goes on.
I concluded that if this persisted the above roadmap was likely to unfold. The Financial Crisis would turn into a regional then global Economic Crisis and then into a Political Crisis.
I believe that in fact is where we are now.MORE>>
MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNO-FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
APRIL 2012: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - (Subscription Plan IV)
UNPRECEDENTED MARKET DISTORTIONS
Since the dotcom bubble era we cannot recall the market being 53.4% overvalued by our methodology. We have witnessed over-bought euphoric markets before but never when: volumes were exploding, not falling; sentiment was euphoric not at the historic low levels we are presently experiencing; businesses were expanding not freezing capital expenditures; profit margins were rising, not falling; corporate cash flow and EBITDA was increasing, not decreasing and central bankers were talking about reducing liquidity not further expanding it. Something is seriously wrong with all the normal measures of the securities industry and we all know it has to do with the endless expansion of central bank balance sheets. The question is when will the Monetary Madness and Malpractice end and some sort of normality resume?In reality this is the new 'normal' because the unfortunate truth is, any attempt to slow or reduce liquidity from this addicted market will be catastrophic.
Instead we wait until something breaks, and you can assured this will happen. The global markets are too fragile and insufficiently robust with too many untested systems, unregulated counterparties and off balance sheet liabilities lurking in the darkness. We have a classic, decade long, megaphone (wolf wave) top pattern now being out in place. We are likely to have a major scare soon; then an overreaction by the financial authorities; followed by a reactive rebound; then the realization by the public that the central bankers are in fact not omnipotent and the global financial system is flawed.
That time is near!
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.