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Wednesday
December 17th
2014

DAVID STOCKMAN on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

DAVID STOCKMAN

 

SPECIAL GUEST: DAVID STOCKMAN , David Stockman is the ultimate Washington insider turned iconoclast. He began his career in Washington as a young man and quickly rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to become the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan. After leaving the White House, Stockman had a 20-year career on Wall Street.

OPEN ACCESS

Published 12-17-14

PODCAST - 38 Minutes

CROMNIBUS

We interrupted David Stockman in Aspen where he was just finishing an article concerning the Cromnibus Bill which the Senate having passed was forwarding to the White House. You can easily sense the annoyance in David's tone about yet another "abomination" out of Washington of a $1.1T, 1600 page Bill and no one given the time to even read it. "Pork and earmarks" were blatantly evident and tacked all over it. As a former Washington insider he is very clear on what is wrong in Washington.

It seemed very appropriate to ask David on this day to talk with us about Financial Repression!

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Honest interest rates and financial asset prices come about from price discovery in the free market owing to the interplay of supply and demand for savings, borrowing and other forms of investment in the marketplace. The opposite of that is the regime we have today which I call the regime of financial repression.

It is characterized by Dishonest or false prices that are not set by the market but are administered by the central bank under the doctrine of ZIRP, QE, wealth effect and all of the other artifices they have invented to justify intervention in the heart of the financial market day-in and day-out! Capitalism cannot function efficiently nor can the economy grow at a healthy sustainable, balanced rate if you do not have a free market within the capital markets or money markets. It is at the very heart of the capitalist enterprise. Today we do not have that! We have absolute Financial Repression!

BANKS HAVE BECOME WARDS OF THE STATE

"We have a problem with the banking system in this country today and that is because banks as they now exist and function are not free market institutions by any shape, form, function or form of imagination! They are essentially wards of the state"

Stockman believes they would not exist in their current form nor would they take the kinds of risk they take if it were not for:

  • The $9T of government deposit insurance,
  • Access to the Fed's discount window,
  • Banking licenses from the state which therefore shield them from the claims they would be exposed to otherwise.

The resulting level of malinvestment and market distortions will soon come to an end when we again have realistic price discovery. He believes it is "only a matter of time before we have another more cataclysmic financial meltdown" due to the sheer weight of speculation in this central bank, bubble driven era which is now occurring.

This is an unusually insightful discussion with someone that understands how tenuous the capitalist system is when mis-pricing of risk occurs through policies of Financial Repression and 78 continuous months of free money.

 

 

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Tuesday
December 16th
2014

Egon von Greyerz on THE SWISS GOLD REFERENDUM

 

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: EGON von GREYERZ , Founder & Managing Partner, Matterhorn Asset Management AG and GOLDSwitzerland.

OPEN ACCESS

 

Published 12-16-14

29 Minutes

Lesson Learned:

"You can't fight the Elite! When they decide they will beat you, they will beat you -- eventually however they will fail!"

Interview with Egon von Greyerz of Matterhorn Asset Management .. on the recent Swiss Gold Initiative vote:

"The whole of the elite were against us. Now, we thought the people, the Swiss people, would be on our side because the Swiss people understand the importance of gold. They were clearly influenced by the massive campaign of the government and of the central bank. The losses for the Swiss National Bank could have been very serious, and that’s why they were quite desperate to stop this initiative."

What are the ramifications now?

"Switzerland now has to print money. The currency is only backed by 7% gold, and now they have a free-for-all to print more money .. this, of course, will be very bullish for gold because it won’t be just Switzerland. Virtually, every country in the world will start printing money." 

Internal Memo from Jomas Thordan, President of the National Bank

Written December 1st, 2014 by 
Categories: All publicationsEgon's Publications
Tags: 

The below memo could have been written by Thomas Jordan, president of the SNB.

Internal Memo National Bank

From: Jomas Thordan, President

To: The Board of Directors

Date: December 1, 2014

I have been quite concerned about the outcome of the Gold Initiative referendum. That is why I have been in the media virtually every day for the last few weeks. I know that the National Bank should not conduct a campaign during a referendum of this kind but since it was a matter of national importance I had no other choice.

As you know, until 1999 we had over 40% gold backing in our balance sheet. At the time it was thought that this amount of gold was critical for the stability of the National Bank and our national currency. But fortunately we managed to change the constitution which allowed us to sell more than half of the nation’s gold at the bottom of the market. We have been bloody lucky fortunate that the Bank’s reputation was intact after this decision which cost our nation 30 Billion. It was clearly incompetent unlucky to sell the gold at the lows but market timing has never been our strong point.

I am extremely pleased that 77% of the voters agreed with my propaganda statements that gold plays no role in modern banking. Gold is a relic of the past. We can’t print gold and that is a major disadvantage when we want to manipulate manage our currency and financial markets. Our principles for managing the National Bank are now laid down by the Federal Reserve and ultimately Goldman Sachs. Here at the Bank we fully subscribe to the statement of the wise Mayer Amshel Rotschild: “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who make its laws.”

So fortunately we don’t have to buy any more gold and we should probably consider selling the 1,000 tons we may still own since it serves no purpose and has no yield. That would also give us ammunition to buy more euros.

The one concern that I would like to share with the board is our currency position. As you are well aware, we have printed over 400 billion and bought mainly assets in euros but also in other currencies in order to hold the peg above 1.20. We are all aware that printed pieces of paper are not really worth anything but since we are a national bank, we can just tell the people that it is real money. Fortunately they are foolish wise enough to believe us.

The reason I have been so nervous about the referendum is that the Bank is now sitting on the biggest speculative currency position of any major central bank in the world. Our balance sheet of 522 Billion is over 80% of GDP which is an extremely dangerous position for our country. It is virtually impossible to get out of this massive position without a loss of 10s of Billions or even as much as 100 Billion. Obviously the people would ultimately pay for this loss.

The 1.20 peg is artificial and throughout history no currency peg has ever held in the longer term. Over time currency rates always reflect economic and monetary differences between countries. Since our economy, for a while at least, is likely to continue to be stronger than the weak eurozone, our home currency will naturally outperform the euro. We are of course extremely grateful that the voters listened to our propaganda information during the campaign and rejected the Gold Initiative. But sadly the Bank’s problems are not over.

This peg was critical to save the bankers banks that had lent massive amounts of our national currency to mainly Eastern European banks. So now we are totally linked with the eurozone and at some point we should perhaps discuss to make this permanent. There are of course disadvantages to be tied to a very weak currency. Everything we buy in the shops is now more expensive. Also, we could be dragged down by euroland and end up with the same economic disaster they are in. But fortunately the people don’t understand these major drawbacks.

But the biggest problem with taking the euro as our currency is that the Bank would lose its ability to beirresponsible independent. The ECB would take over and we would lose all our power to print money.

Therefore I recommend to the Board that we stay as we are. But that still gives us the headache of our 470 billion speculative currency position. This is a timebomb and we know we will never be able to extract from it without very major losses. Hopefully the current board will have retired from the National Bank before this happens so a new board can be blamed for it.

Finally I would like to thank the Board for their support of my actions. The Bank now retains total “control of the Nation’s money” which is comforting.

Jomas Thordan

President

P.S. The above is a fictional account of events and any connection to a real situation is purely coincidental.

 

On November 30th the Swiss voted on:

  1. Returning their national gold which is held abroad back to Switzerland
  2. Requiring the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of their assets in physical gold
  3. Prohibiting further gold sales

Money printing SNBSo why was this referendum so important?  Because Switzerland has, for hundreds of years,  been a bastion of sound monetary policy and low inflation. But this has gradually changed in the last 100 years since the creation of the Fed in the US and especially during the past 15 years when the Swiss government quietly removed the 40% gold backing from the revised Federal Constitution which was adopted by popular vote in 1999.

No paper currency has ever survived throughout history in its original form. And the Swiss Franc from having been a strong currency is now in the process of being slowly destroyed by the recent policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Since 2008 the SNB’s balance sheet has expanded 5 times from CHF 100 Billion to CHF 500 Billion. So Switzerland has printed around 400 Billion Swiss Francs in the last 6 years in order to hold its currency down against the Euro and other currencies. CHF 400 Billion is around 2/3 of GDP.

This means that Switzerland has printed more money, relatively, than any major country in the world in the last 6 years.

Why this change of policy?

For a very long time, the Swiss Franc appreciated against most currencies and Switzerland prospered with a strong economy, strong currency and lower inflation than most major countries. It is of course a fallacy to believe that a weak currency benefits a country when Switzerland has proved that the opposite is the case.

Between 1970 and 2008 the Swiss Franc appreciated by 330% to the dollar and 57% to the DM/Euro. So for almost 40 years a very strong Swiss currency went hand in hand with a strong economy. In spite of this proven success, the new guard in the SNB decided to abandon proven successful policies and print money like most other countries.

To tie the Swiss Franc to a weak currency like the Euro and a very weak economic area like the Eurozone is a recipe for disaster.  To align your country to a failed political and economic experiment can only lead to failure.

Swiss Banks – Highly leveraged

But it is not only the SNB that is now following unsound policies but so are the big Swiss banks. From an equity ratio of 15-20% 100 years ago, the big Swiss banks are now down to 2-3.5% (note: because the basis of calculation changed after 2007 it is difficult to make an exact comparison).  This means that the big Swiss banks have a leverage ratio of 30-50. Thus a loss in their loan book of 2-3% would be enough to wipe out the entire bank. It is virtually certain that when interest rates go up, the Swiss banks will have losses on the balance sheet or on derivatives that are considerably higher than 2-3%.

The SNB and the Swiss banks are already too big to save in relation to the size of the Swiss economy. Continued expansion of the balance sheets of the SNB and the Swiss banks is likely to lead to a very vulnerable positon for the Swiss economy and currency. With another crisis like in 2007-9, the SNB would have to print unlimited amounts of money which would destroy the value of the Swiss Franc, leading to high inflation or even hyperinflation. With both the SNB and the Swiss banks on a dangerous path, Switzerland now has the unique opportunity to return to a sound financial system that has been their trademark for centuries.

 

 

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Thurssday
December 11th
2014

ANDREW SHENG on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

ANDREW SHENG

 

SPECIAL GUEST: ANDREW SHENG , Distinguished Fellow of the Fung Global Institute and a member of the UNEP Advisory Council on Sustainable Finance, is a former chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, and is currently an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His latest book is From Asian to Global Financial Crisis.

OPEN ACCESS

Published 12-11-14

29 Minutes

Andrew Sheng has spent his career in Asia as a central banker and regulator. He summarizes the current global situation as developed economies simply "kicking the can down the road" to avoid the painful and inevitable structural changes that must lie ahead. "There are no free lunches. Avoidance will only make it more expenses and painful later on!" He quotes former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on this subject; "do you want your teeth pulled out slowly or very quickly?" Sheng concludes "we are going to have a long tooth ache for a very long time to come!"

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Sheng describes what he refers to as the "Financial Repression Tax":

"Governments (via regulated banks) will pay depositors very low rates, sometimes below inflation rates in order to fund the budget. The result is what is known as a Financial Repression Tax. This represses the financial system. The biggest payers of the Financial Repression Tax become the pension funds, insurance companies and long term savers."

"Besides the government tax, this effectively also allows the rich & privileged to borrow from the poor! Rich countries are borrowing from the poorer countries"

AVOIDING DAY OF INEVITABILITY OF STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT

"As long as central bankers are printing we have a 'paper economy' not a real economy. That is where Financial Repression really harms the system"

SOURCE OF GROWING GLOBAL INEQUALITY

Sheng feels strongly that the inevitable outcome of broad based Financial Repression is and has become global inequality. "Quantitative Easing and the 'leveraged play' around the world is worsening inequality".

THE MARKET IS NOW POLICY DRIVEN

Sheng also believes the free market is presently not allowed to operate. Markets are highly distorted from trillions of dollars of 'pumping'.

"People equate finance with debt. Debt is about risk shifting and not about risk sharing! We presently have things backward. If you think of the real economy as the horse, and finance as the cart; what we have today is the cart in front of the horse!"

CONSEQUENCES OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION POLICIES

Andrew Sheng believes we are headed for another crisis. Common sense could help fix the problems but he feels common sense appears not to be so common, especially when politics in involved.

This interview touches a broad range of the fallout from Financial Repression; from how the US Fed is now locked into low interest rates, the 'hot money' US Dollar Carry Trade and why lenders are more concerned about balance sheet repair than investment.

 

 

 

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Saturday
December 13th
2014

GORDON T LONG on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

GORDON T LONG

 

Wall St For Main St Interview: GORDON T LONG .

OPEN ACCESS

Governments & Central Banks 
Are 'All In' on Financial Repression

Published 12-13-14

PODCAST - 65 Minutes

Wall St For Main St interviews Gordon T Long on:

  • Financial Repression,
    • Why the U.S., Japan, UK & the EU all want it,
    • Why it's about to go global for every country as many developing countries are looking to create their own version of capital controls similar to FACTA for U.S. citizens.
  • Discussion on oil prices,
    • oil price manipulation & OPEC,
  • Swiss Gold Referendum Failure,
  • Where the new investment opportunities are.

A broad discussion of the current state of affairs in Macro conomics, Political Economics and Geo-Economics.

 

 

 

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Wednesday
December 10th
2014

SIMON BLACK on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

SIMON BLACK

 

SPECIAL GUEST: SIMON BLACK , is the publisher of SovereignMan.com and “Sovereign Man: Confidential” - An International Investment Intelligence Service. A graduate of West Point he served tours of duty in the middle east as an intelligence officer before beginning SovereignMan.com. He has visited over 116 countries and visits 40-50 countries annually looking for investment solutions to suit the realities of today's increasing government regulations and restrictions.

OPEN ACCESS

Published 12-10-14

PODCAST - 29 Minutes

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Financial Repression is Theft. It is a very clever, cunning deceitful form of theft. Governments are stealing purchasing power and essentially defaulting on their obligation to maintain a sound currency."

"Presently in many cases you have to pay a bankrupt government for the privilege of loaning them money! Negative real interest rates is covert theft"

Simon believes that the mentality of many governments has shifted from an 'abundance mentality' to a negative 'scarcity mentality' that has left them chasing innocent, harmless people around the world (ie witness FATCA and the avalanche of renouncing citizenship) versus trying to attract productive people, being more competitive and "making the pie bigger". This is no longer the thinking that the US was founded on.

THE SOVEREIGN MAN APPROACH

The problem we’re facing is the fragility and danger that comes from massive centralization of economic and political power. The solution then, is to decentralize.

This strategy of diversifying aspects of your life across the globe is called Internationalization, and that’s what Sovereign Man's Six Pillars of Self Reliance are about.

The SIX PILLARS OF SELF RELIANCE - Financial sovereignty in the 21st century

    1. Move your money to safety - Foreign banking
    2. Establish new roots abroad - Second residence and second passport
    3. Don’t bet your life on a single currency - Alternative stores of value
    4. Rely on yourself - Personal resilience in a fragile world
    5. Grow your wealth - Entrepreneurship and private investments
    6. Protect what you hold dear - Asset protection and privacy

INTELLIGENCE SERVICE

Sovereign Man: Confidential is an intelligence service, which provides people with the resources and contacts they need to be able to make the right decisions regarding their life and their assets. The only intelligence service that works with the sole goal of increasing freedom. Rational solutions that make sense no matter what around the globe for securing your life, liberty and pursuit of happiness.

Agricultural Land Corporation (ALC)- A   substantial agricultural business in Chile which acquires, develops, and operates very high quality and productive agricultural property. It’s a tremendously exciting project, because as Simon himself has written, agriculture might very well be the smartest investment of the decade.

Sovereign Valley Organic wine and produce in Chile - Sovereign Man’s private farm in central Chile produces vast quantities of agricultural produce, including fruits, vegetables, nuts, eggs, meat, and wine.

 

 

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Monday
December 8th,
2014

THE OIL-DRENCHED BLACK SWAN

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

OPEN ACCESS

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

28 Minutes

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the dramatic impacts the recent fall in energy prices is having and will have on global financial markets.

 

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

The impact of lower oil is financial, political and geopolitical. 

Lower oil revenues will impact:

      • Oil-exporters’ revenues,
      • Monetary policy of central banks,
      • Trade flows and
      • Global financial markets.

Lower state revenues will pressure:

      • Oil-dependent governments such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran, and
      • Destabilize the geopolitical order as weakened oil exporters sink into recession or political turmoil.

REDUCED GLOBAL LIQUIDITY FLOWS

FOUR LIKELY CAUSES

    1. Shale Oil,
    2. Weak Global Demand,
    3. A Geo-Political Clash,
    4. Financialization of Oil

 

CONSEQUENCES OF $68/BL OIL (Richard Duncan's "Liqudity Gauge" Watch)

  1. CONSUMER "TAX CUT": Consumers will be better off. Lower gasoline prices will be like a tax cut for the middle class, who will be able to spend more on other goods.
  2. SMALLER US TRADE DEFICIT: The US trade deficit will become smaller as the cost of oil imports falls (although this will be partially offset since Americans are likely to use their savings from a lower gasoline bill to buy more consumer goods made overseas). A lower trade deficit will boost GDP.
  3. SHIFT IN CENTRAL BANK STANCES: Lower oil prices will mean more downward pressure on consumer prices and a greater risk of deflation. The fear of deflation is likely to cause the Fed and the Bank of England to delay their plans to increase interest rates, while it may force the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to accelerate their asset purchases.
  4. LOWER SOVEREIGN BOND YIELDS: In most countries, government bond yields have already fallen in response to the increasing disinflationary/deflationary pressures that will result from lower oil prices. Government bond yields in a number of European countries fell to record lows last week.
  5. SOVEREIGN FISCAL PRESSURES: The finances of the oil exporting countries will suffer. The currencies of Russia, Norway, Venezuela and Nigeria have already fallen significantly, reflecting the deterioration in those countries’ economic prospects.
  6. PRODUCTION BREAKEVEN COSTS: Lower oil prices are likely to put some high cost producers out of business. Canadian oil sands look particularly vulnerable. Some of the marginal shale oil producers in the US may also go to the wall. As bankruptcies occur, defaults on energy junk bonds are likely to rise significantly. At this stage, I don’t believe that the losses in the junk bond market will be significant enough to cause a new financial sector crisis. Nor do I believe that so many wells will shut down in the United States that US oil production will begin to fall. Production costs have been falling rapidly and are likely to continue falling. Oil prices will have to fall considerably further before most of the new shale oil production becomes unprofitable. Of course, the possibility that oil will fall much further can’t be ruled out. It was $20 per barrel not all that long ago.
  7. REDUCED CAPITAL FLOWS: Finally, the reduction in the US trade deficit will mean a reduction in capital inflows into the US. (Capital inflows are the mirror image of the Current Account Deficit, since every country’s balance of payments must balance.) The reduction in capital inflows will reduce the upward pressure on US asset prices that has come from this source in the past.

 

 

 

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Saturday
December 6th
2014

NICK GIAMBRUNO on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

NICK GIAMBRUNO

 

SPECIAL GUEST: NICK GIAMBRUNO , Nick is senior editor at InternationalMan.com (Casey Research), where he writes about offshore banking, second passports, surviving an economic collapse, offshore trusts and companies, geopolitics and crisis investing, among other topics.

OPEN ACCESS

 

Nick Giambruno has a long-held passion for internationalization. He has lived in Europe and worked in the Middle East, most recently in Beirut and Dubai, where he covered regional banks and other companies for an investment bank. He is a published author focusing on international diversification strategies that help people reduce their dependence on any one country. This is a strategy that Doug Casey helped pioneer and makes it very difficult for any government to control one's destiny. In short, Nick's objective is to help people make the most of their personal freedom and financial opportunity around the world. Nick is a CFA charterholder and holds a bachelor's degree in finance, summa cum laude. He is senior editor at InternationalMan.com, where he writes about offshore banking, second passports, surviving an economic collapse, offshore trusts and companies, geopolitics and crisis investing, among other topics.

Published 12-06-14

25 Minutes

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Financial Repression is Financial Authoritarianism.

It is not only repressing financial aspects of people's lives but all aspects of life and when you consider the amount of power that is wielded through Financial Repression, it is more accurate to call it Financial Authoritarianism!"

SOURCE OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Financial Repression is needed to help governments finance their debt, where the impedence comes from the level of government spending. Since almost all countries use a central banking model and fiat currencies this allows Financial Repression to exist. It gives the government the tools to implement Financial Repression which it wouldn't otherwise have in a SOUND MONEY System.

"The lynchpin of how Financial Repression is implemented is the Central Banking Model "

"What is fundamentally wrong with this is that it allows the government to take something (that something being Purchasing Power) that is not theirs, without people knowing. You learn in kindergarden that you don't take something that is not yours but that is exactly what they are doing!"

FATCA - FOREIGN ACCOUNTS TAX COMPLIANCE ACT

One of the most egregious examples of Financial Repression in the international arena is FATCA and the soon to be unleashed GATCA. The Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) effectively begins the process of ring fencing investors options through nothing more than a stealth form of capital controls.

The real issue to banks around the world is:

  1. Cost of Compliance
  2. Draconian penalties if even an honest mistake is made.

Therefore they don't want American accounts which is making it horrendously difficult for Americans to now live and operate abroad. FATCA has laid the foundation for GATCA in 2018 which is part of the end game for global taxation.

Like Financial Repression FATCA (and GATCA) is devious and not upfront with the American people. FATCA is a blatant example of "government for the government by the government" versus a constitution based upon "a government for the people by the people"!

Learn more about FATCA / GATCA and more as Casey Research's "International Man" talks what Financial Repression means around the world.

 

 

 

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Friday
November 28th
2014

AUDIO PODCAST

DAN AMERMAN on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Dan Amerman

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Daniel R. Amerman is a financial futurist, author, speaker, and consultant with over 20 years of financial industry experience. He is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), and holds MBA and BSBA degrees in Finance from the University of Missouri. He has spent seven years developing a large, unique and intertwined body of work, that is devoted to using the foundation principles of economics and finance to try to understand the retirement of the Baby Boom from the perspective of the people who will be paying for it.

OPEN ACCESS

Published 11-28-14

42 Minutes

Is there a "Back Door" method for the government to pay down the federal debt using private savings?

Daniel Amerman says emphatically, YES! It is called FINANCIAL REPRESSION, though as a former banker Amerman likes to think of it in more accounting terms like liabilities and assets.

In practice there are four primary methods which a nation can use to pay down excessive debts incurred to support spendthrift habits and political obligations.

  1. AUSTERITY: Decades of Austerity,
  2. DEFAULT: Defaulting on government debts,
  3. DEBASEMENT: Inflating away the value of the debt though slashing the value of the currency,
  4. POLICY: Process of Financial Repression

Financial Repression is a subtle method of taking vast sums of private wealth with no political consequences. It has strong advantages for the government:

  1. It works in practice and has been used successfully before ( 1945 - 1970),
  2. Almost No Political Damage,

Financial Repression uses a combination of INFLATION and government control of INTEREST RATES in an environment of CAPITAL CONTROLS to CONFISCATE much of the PURCHASING POWER of the nation's private savings.

The government methodically uses regulations over a period of many years to force a negative rate of return onto investors (in inflation adjusted terms) so that the real wealth of savers shrinks by an average of 3-4% per year.

A SHEEP SHEERING STRUCTURE

 

The characteristics of postwar era "Sheep Sheering" are:

  1. Inflation,
  2. Government control of Interest Rates to guarantee Negative Real Rates of Return,
  3. The Funding of government debt by financial institutions,
  4. Capital controls,
  5. Discouragement of Precious Metals investment.

If you real want to understand FINANCIAL REPRESSION, this is where you start.

 

 

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Tuesday
November 25th
2014

WHAT ARE THE RICH DOING WITH THEIR MONEY?

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

OPEN ACCESS

 

WHAT ARE THE RICH DOING WITH THEIR MONEY?

Published 11-25-14

30 Minutes

John feels the global economy is slowing down dramatically.

THE PREDICAMENT

The rich see this and fully expect sovereign nations to attempt to "print their way out" by debasement and policies of Financial Repression.

As a consequence the "Rich" are taking knowing actions to protect their wealth.

 

“The rich have way more money than they know what to do with even in a deflationary world and are buying shiny baubles at any price just to get out of their financial assets.”

They are getting out of paper and moving to hard assets that have an intrinsic store of wealth.

A world with both inflation and deflation at the same time, seems to violate most economic theories and probably can't be sustained.

How does it resolve? 

Join John and Gord in this 30 minute discussion on what this means going forward.

 

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Monday
November 24th
2014

AXEL MERK on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Axel Merk

 

SPECIAL GUEST: AXEL MERK , is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Merk Investments, manager of the Merk Funds. He is a recognized expert on the global economy, monetary policy and international investing.

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Axel Merk is a recognized authority on currencies and is a pioneer in the use of strategic currency investing to seek diversification. He has been named a “Currency Guru” by Morningstar. Axel Merk is a regular guest on CNBC, FoxBusiness and Bloomberg. His columns and interviews frequently appear in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and other financial media around the world. Merk is a sought after expert speaker at industry conferences, including the annual conferences of the CFA, FPA and AAII, as well as at universities, government organizations and think tanks. Merk's expertise encompasses topics ranging from the global economy, gold and currencies to sustainable wealth and personal finance. Axel Merk’s Book “Sustainable Wealth” was published by Wiley in 2009 and his newsletter Merk Insights reaches a wide audience of investors, analysts and media following global macroeconomic issues and implications to investing.

Published 11-24-14

PODCAST - 25 Minutes

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"In a nutshell, it is ways governments are trying to deprive you of purchasing power because the government has too much debt and must debase the value of the debt."

"Through the backdoor the government is trying to take some of your net worth .... It is a wealth TRANSFER from savers to those who have piled up a excess debt" "It is most commonly done through negative real interest rates!"

CENTRAL BANK INFLATION GOALS

"You often don't have enough inflation in the world when you have too much debt".

This is why the US, the EU and Japan are trying frantically get inflation up, despite it being bad for the average citizen or saver.

Axel Merk believes that if in 10 years we were to get back to historic bond level,s then there would be an addition $1 trillion in government interest rates. The fed is simply not going to allow that and therefore interest rates are realistically not going up.

NEGATIVE REAL INTEREST RATES

Even a Fed Funds Rate of 1.75 next year would likely still mean we would have negative real interest rates.

SOCIAL UNREST & POLITICAL INSTABILITY

"Policy makes never blame themselves for the problems they have. They always blame a minority, the wealthy or foreigners"

When you have too much debt political stability declines. In parts of the world where food and energy are bigger part of their disposable income you can expect social unrest as these inflation policies take on greater roles.

It is a fact that austerity policies fail at the polls as we have seen in Europe. In the US we are electing increasingly more populist politicians which means entitlement reforms have a slim chance of happening. Therefore "Kicking-the-Can-Down-the-Road" and reliance on the central bank to keep rates low.

We have former super powers on the decline and emerging super powers on the rise. We can only hope that this transition will be peaceful. A central banker told Axel prior to his starting his funds that "We can only hope the adjustment process will be slow and gradual"

JAPAN IS AHEAD OF US IN THIS EVOLUTION

"Liquidity has dried up in the JGB market which means that at some point it is easier to have some sort of crisis"

REGULATION

Regulations in general are about barriers to entry. Therefore it limits risk taking which inevitably leads to less economic growth. By simply keeping interest rates low it doesn't put sufficient pressures on the system for structural reforms. As low interest rate policies continue to fail the political bias will be to "double down" which means the problems get even worse. Eventually the structural changes required becomes too great to be politically possible without hiding behind a major crisis.

SWISS NATIONAL GOLD REFERENDUM

The Swiss are fiercely independent and don't like the dependencies which the Euro peg to the Swiss Franc are creating. They don't like the debt an unelected central bank is piling onto the nation. What is important is that the referendum is trying to force more discipline into monetary policy.

WHAT INVESTORS MUST REALIZE

Cash is no longer safe anymore! The purchasing power of cash is at risk. Once investors realize this the investment world is open! They then need to invest based on the risk spectrum.

  • EQUITIES - Prices are elevated because of the actions of central banks ,
  • BONDS - "I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole in the current environment.
  • DIVERSIFICATION suggests adding Currencies and Precious Metals.
  • BE ALERT - Have your own opinion after building your own framework

 

 

 

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Saturday
November 22nd
2014

FINANCIAL REPRESSION for DUMMIES

 

Gordon T Long

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Financial Survival Network Radio

OPEN ACCESS

FINANCIAL REPRESSION FOR DUMMIES

with Kerry Lutz & Gordon T Long

AUDO ONLY: 24 Minutes

From the Financial Survival Network:

Gordon T. Long has been sounding the alarm on Financial Repression for quite some time. Unfortunately most people have been unaware that their wealth is being stripped away before their very eyes. But Gordon and his associates have devised a number of strategies that can be exercised to avoid this fate. Before you can solve a problem, you’ve got to admit that it exits.

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Wednesday
November 19th
2014

AUDIO PODCAST

DOUG CASEY on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Doug Casey

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Doug Casey is the founder and chairman of Casey Research. He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post; and is a regular keynote speaker at FreedomFest, the world's largest gathering of free minds.

OPEN ACCESS

A WORLD TOUR OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

with

 

Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on “rational speculation,” especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug literally wrote the book on profiting from periods of economic turmoil: his book Crisis Investing spent multiple weeks as #1 on the New York Times bestseller list and became the best-selling financial book of 1980 with 438,640 copies sold; surpassing big-caliber names, like Free to Choose by Milton Friedman, The Real War by Richard Nixon, and Cosmos by Carl Sagan. Then Doug broke the record with his next book, Strategic Investing, by receiving the largest advance ever paid for a financial book at the time. Interestingly enough, Doug’s book The International Man was the most sold book in the history of Rhodesia. and his most recent releases Totally Incorrect (2012) and Right on the Money (2013) continue the tradition of challenging statism and advocating liberty and free markets.

Published 11-19-14

PODCAST - AUDIO ONLY - 31 Minutes

Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. He doesn't hold back as he speaks from his ranch in the back provinces of Argentina.

Doug sees the world in the "eye of a gigantic financial hurricane". It entered the hurricane in 2007-2008 and will likely see the next stage in 2015. Here are just some of Doug's views and statements from this fascinating and exclusive interview with Gordon T Long.

REALISTICALLY SEES WAR AHEAD

"The US is being provocative with its military bases in 125 countries around the world and is provoking the Russians in the Ukraine." The US is now a country in a continuous state of war. "The US military is out of control."

"AMERICA DOESN'T EXIST ANYMORE!"

"America has turned into a police state". It is the most dangerous entity in the world today and has become hated globally because of its militarism.

"THE REAL RISK TO INVESTORS IS 'POLITICAL'"

US Investors must urgently diversify their assets abroad while it is still possible. More restrictive regulatory policies lie ahead.

US STANDARD OF LIVING & RESPECT IN THE WORLD HAS FALLEN

Today the US is more taxed and regulated than ever before, which limits its abilities to solve its problems.

"MODERN CURRENCIES ARE FLOATING ABSTRACTIONS"

Developed economies' currencies "are turning into toilet paper".

"JAPAN IS A GIANT ACCIDENT WAITING TO HAPPEN!"

"If you are looking for a one way street, perhaps the best speculation in the world today would to be short Japanese government bonds denominated in Yen". The demographics in Japan are the worst in the world.

"THE EU WILL CEASE TO EXIST"

Its really a horrible conglomeration of countries which should be simply a free trade area with the government in Brussels making it impossible. It is totally dysfunctional and will breakup.

RECOMMENDATIONS

  • "Hold onto your hat" - Things are going to get real interesting starting in 2015,
  • Doug sees turmoil coming which we haven't seen since the start of the Industrial Revolution or the French Revolution,
  • Hold gold and silver. Some should be in coins in your possession.

 

 

 

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Monday
November 10th
2014

AUDIO PODCAST

MICHAEL PENTO on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Michael Pento

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Mr. Michael Pento is the President of Pento Portfolio Strategies and serves as Senior Market Analyst for Baltimore-based research firm Agora Financial. Pento Portfolio Strategies provides strategic advice and research for institutional clients. Agora Financial publishes award-winning newsletters, critically acclaimed feature documentaries and international best-selling books.

OPEN ACCESS

 

Mr. Pento is a well-established specialist in the Austrian School of economics and a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, FOX Business News and other national media outlets. His market analysis can also be read in most major financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal. He also acts as a Financial Columnist for Forbes, Contributor to thestreet.com and is a blogger at the Huffington Post. Prior to starting Pento Portfolio Strategies and joining Agora Financial, Mr. Pento served as a senior economist and vice president of the managed products division of another financial firm. There, he also led an external sales division that marketed their managed products to outside broker-dealers and registered investment advisors. Additionally, Mr. Pento has worked for an investment advisory firm where he helped create ETFs and UITs that were sold throughout Wall Street. Earlier in his career Mr. Pento spent two years on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. He has carried series 7, 63, 65, 55 and Life and Health Insurance Licenses. Mr. Pento graduated from Rowan University in 1991.

Published 11-17-14

PODCAST - 19 Minutes

Michael Pento speaks out strongly by saying: "We cannot allow the whims of a small group of unelected people to depreciate the value of currencies without any accountability whatsoever. Who gave Mr Bernanke and Ms Yellen the authority to do all these QEs? Who voted them into power? Why do we believe deflation is a bane on the American populous? Why do we want real incomes to fall and prices to go up? We cannot allow these people to to destroy the American middle class and American consumer!"

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Any attempt by government to make sure debt service payments remain serviceable."

That is the key. "Whether it is to force people into the bond market, whether it is to keep interest rates artificially low - whatever they need to do to make sure they don't have to use the tax base to pay their debt and deficits. They utilize artificial methods to make sure they can make debt service payments."

JAPAN IS MICHAEL PENTO'S FAVORITE EXAMPLE

"In Japan they have been able to take the entire JGB market and monopolize the whole entire thing! There is nothing that occurs there unless the government is a buyer. There are days on end where there is no trading because their 10 year note is .005%."

"Japan is an insolvent nation that has taken its interest rates down to levels where there is no private market for their debt - it is a ticking time bomb ..... The danger here is the Yen can unravel here and become intractable."

"If interest rates go up just 1% the nation is completely insolvent. The Yen could unravel very quickly and cause the economy of Japan to collapse, which would be massively disruptive to all economies and markets across the globe."

FREE MARKET SYSTEM HAS BEEN COMPLETELY VANQUISHED

"No one knows what the prices are of anything any longer! Capitalism has been annulled, cancelled and abrogated by government and central banks (which are one and same thing)".

WHERE WE ARE HEADED

  1. A complete breakdown in central bank credibility lies ahead,
  2. A complete collapse of the financial system will occur when interest raters normalize. The Fed won't initiate this normalization but rather the free market will,
  3. A resulting global economic collapse will wipe out tax bases and therefore debts and deficits will skyrocket
  4. Because of this threat, more QE, more financial repression and further market intrusions lie ahead.
 

 

 

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Friday
November 14th
2014

AUDIO PODCAST

TIM PRICE on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Tim Price

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Tim Price is Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK, an independent asset management and financial planning practice. He was formerly Chief Investment Officer – Global Strategies at Union Bancaire Privée in London, and previously Chief Investment Officer at private bank Ansbacher & Co.

OPEN ACCESS

Tim has 18 years’ experience of both institutional and private client wealth management. A graduate of Oxford University, his focus is absolute return investing using multiple asset classes, including so-called alternative investments. Working with his prior employers he has been shortlisted for five successive years in the Private Asset Managers Awards program and is a previous winner in the category of Defensive Investment Performance. He was also shortlisted in the inaugural Spear’s Wealth Management Awards 2007 in the category of Asset Manager of the Year. An outspoken and sometimes irreverent commentator on financial markets and the asset management industry, Tim is also a regular columnist for Money Week magazine and maintains a weblog, The Price of Everything (http://thepriceofeverything.typepad.com/) and edits Price Value International.

Published 11-14-14

PODCAST - 26 Minutes

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Financial Repression is government stealing from savers and the future!"

"The single biggest problem of our times economically, is that for the last 40 years there has been an unsustainable buildup of credit expansion throughout the developed world ... and we have reached the end of the road new. Every policy by governments and their agents (the central banks) is too a) Kick the Can Down the Road and B) to steal from savers to keep this bandwagon rolling!"

THREE ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES TO ATTEMPT A RESOLUTION:

  1. Generate Sufficient Economic Growth to Keep Servicing the Debt,
  2. Repudiation or Debt Default,
  3. An Explicit Policy of State Sanctioned Inflationism.

Approach #1 and #2 or no longer realistically viable, leaving governments with only option #3. The last options has historically always been the option governments of fiat based systems have resorted to throughout the ages because of a lack of "political will and discipline".

Tim believes Japan is presently the 'dress rehearsal' and the rest of the world will be the main event.

A "FOUR LEGGED" INVESTMENT APPROACH

The pragmatic response - Ignore indices and concentrate on value.

“Investors do not make mistakes, or bad mistakes, in buying good stocks at fair prices. They make their serious mistakes by buying poor stocks, particularly the ones that are pushed for various reasons. And sometimes – in fact very frequently – they make mistakes by buying good stocks in the upper reaches of bull markets.”

  -Benjamin Graham

  1. High Quality Debt,
  2. Deep Value Listed Equity,
  3. Uncorrelated Assets and Systematic Trend Following (CTA),
  4. Diversified Real Assets

Tim recalls the words we last heard in the dark days of 2008:

"When you’re a distressed seller of an illiquid asset in a market panic, it’s not even like being in a crowded theater that’s on fire. It’s like being in a crowded theater that’s on fire and the only way you can get out is by persuading somebody outside to swap places with you .”

This is precisely what occurs when the regulatory pressures and un-natural forces of FINANCIAL REPRESSION finally ends

 

 

 

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Monday
November 10th
2014

Dr. THORSTEN POLLEIT on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Dr Thorsten Polleit

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Thorsten Polleit, PhD is chief economist of the precious-metals firm Degussa and co-founder of the investment boutique Polleit & Riechert Investment Management LLP. He is honorary professor at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and associated scholar of the Mises Institute.

OPEN ACCESS

Thorsten Polleit, 47, is Chief Economist of Degussa Goldhandel GmbH (www.degussa-goldhandel.de). From 1998 to 2012, he worked as an economist for ANB AMRO and Barclays Capital in Amsterdam, London and Frankfurt. Thorsten holds a diploma in economics and was awarded a doctorate in economics from the University of Münster in 1996. In September 2014 he was appointed Honorary Professor for economics at the University of Bayreuth (uni-bayreuth.de). Thorsten Polleit is an Adjunct Scholar of the Ludwig von Mises Institute, Auburn, US Alabama (www.mises.org), President of the Ludwig von Mises Institut Deutschland (www.misesde.org) and a founding member of the research network on The Role of Money in the Economy (ROME). Together with Matthias Riechert he founded the investment firm Polleit & Riechert Investment Management LLP (www.polleit-riechert.com). Thorsten Polleit writes frequently for various newspapers magazines and journals. His publication list can be found here.

Published 11-10-14

21 Minutes

When you are as well grounded in the Austrian School of Economics as Prof Dr. Thorsten Polleit, then understanding inflation is only a matter of understanding the countries changing "money stock" and the "quantity of money". As Ludwig von Mises taught - inflation always comes to an end! At some point you cannot inflate any further.

"We live in a world where the quantity of money can be increased at any point in time, in any amount politically desired. It is only a matter of political willingness to increase the stock of money ... the real risk in an unbacked money system is therefore inflation"

Prof Polleit believes there is a "lot of trickery"still to be done to avoid the ultimate catastrophe which he sees coming because of the lack of politically will to address the present economic problems and the government's fear of deflation. As a result, "it can be anticipated that future government policies will take away a large amount of private wealth".

"COLLECTIVE CORRUPTION"

"Presently there is great support to keep alive a failing unbacked "paper money" system ... Many people have become dependent on the unbacked "paper money" system, for example people holding bonds. They have a great interest that the whole monetary architecture does not collapse. So, if the choice is to bring to a halt the printing press and accept the consequences; or to be in favor of the policies to create new money, the majority of the people would opt for the former. This is why you can (and will) impose all these drastic Financial Repression measures."

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"Financial Repression are policies that try to erode outstanding wealth. For instance governments have bonds outstanding. Through Financial Repression they try to reduce the amount of real debt of these instruments. ... They do this by controlling the interest rate and ramping up inflation so the real return on investor assets declines and inflation 'eats away' investor wealth"

NEGATIVE REAL RATES

"Negative Real Interest Rates is an instrument of the government for eroding real wealth of savers to the benefit of the government and other highly indebted interest rate groups - like the banking industry because their outstanding liabilities are getting reduced in real terms. This is the redistribution of income and wealth on the grandest scale imaginable!"

"The losers are the innocent savers with expectations of inflation being lower than it actually is or will become."

"It must be understood that wealth is being transferred!".

 

 

 

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Monday
Nov 10th,
2014

FOLLOWING JAPAN'S FAILED ECONOMIC MODEL

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

OPEN ACCESS

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

25 Minutes

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the failed Japanese Economic Model and what it means for those nations following the Japanese path of QE and then QQE.

It’s not just about Japan as a nation failing— but that it’s critically important to understand that the model Japan followed in the postwar era is failing.  

Japan reached preeminence via an Asian-specific form of Capitalism with these four characteristics:

FOUR FAILED PILLARS – Lessons Learned

1.    Integration of government ministries and private-sector cartels,

2.    Heavy reliance on export sectors for growth and profits,

3.    Domestic savers provide the capital for export expansion,

4.    Defaults and write-offs of bad debt cause loss of face and are thus hidden from public view

 Charles Hugh Smith spells out why all four have failed.

This model will fail in every nation that relies on it.

Japan’s response to the failure of its growth model is not a solution but an additional problem:

-- Expanding fiscal deficits to enable more government spending,

-- Monetizing government debt (Bank of Japan creates money and uses it to buy government bonds)

Is Japan’s economy unique in the world? Yes and No.

YES: It is an island state with a homogeneous populace that is culturally attuned to producing high quality goods, saving money and sacrificing individual interests in favor of the greater good.  That is unique.

NO: But the mercantilism, state-capitalist, debt-dependent model is not unique—it has been copied by other developing nations as the gold standard for rapid development.”

Japan marched down the road that all the other developed economies are presently marching down.

 

 

 

 

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Saturday
November 8th
2014

Dr. CHRIS MARTENSON on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Dr Chris Martenson

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Chris Martenson, PhD (Duke), MBA (Cornell) is an economic researcher and futurist specializing in energy and resource depletion, and co-founder of PeakProsperity.com

OPEN ACCESS

As one of the early econobloggers who forecasted the housing market collapse and stock market correction years in advance, Chris rose to prominence with the launch of his seminal video seminar: The Crash Course which has also been published in book form (Wiley, March 2011). It's a popular and extremely well-regarded distillation of the interconnected forces in the Economy, Energy and the Environment (the "Three Es" as Chris calls them) that are shaping the future, one that will be defined by increasing challenges to growth as we have known it. In addition to the analysis and commentary he writes for his site PeakProsperity.com, Chris' insights are in high demand by the media as well as academic, civic and private organizations around the world, including institutions such as the UN, the UK House of Commons and US State Legislatures.

Published 11-08-14

31 Minutes

Dr. Chris Martenson Talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION in clear and simple language that we can all follow. A professional educator, he makes the complex easy to grasp. Elements of Financial Repression require this skill to make clear the stealth game governments are taking against its citizens in the name of preserving the financial stability of the state.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"When governments get into too much debt there are only so many ways to get themselves out from under the debt." There is:

  1. Austerity,
  2. Default on the Debt or
  3. Financial Repression

In reality, the third is the only politically viable solution. Financial Repression " the cornerstone involves taking a little from everybody and giving it to a couple of favored parties". To do this involves three basic elements:

  1. Negative Real Interest Rates,
  2. Ring Fencing via Regulatory Controls,
  3. Elimination of warning signals such as gold appreciation.

JAPAN AS AS AN EXAMPLE

Let's consider Japan as an example. The Yen is down 33% over the last year as a stated policy direction of the government's Financial Repression implementation. As a direct consequence, imports are higher therefore making consumption items like energy more expensive for the average person in Japan.

Real wages and savings for the middle class in Japan are falling. However, if you are a corporation like Toyota it is better for business. Chris argues that Financial Repression is nothing more than a transfer from the people to companies such as Toyota . The government effectively believes it knows better through central control and planning where the public's money will be most effectively utilized.

Central planning never worked in Russia and after more than 20 years the proof can once again be confirmed in Japan. This is the stealth game being played against the public, not only in Japan but by countries practicing policies of Financial Repression around the world.

THE COMING CRISIS

True wealth NEVER gets destroyed, it only gets transferred!"

Chris points out that wealth is never destroyed. but rather it is the claims on wealth which are destroyed during a crisis. "A profound currency accident is coming" according to Chris where he "would not be surprised to see the Yen be completely obliterated just like the the Zimbabwe dollar." His strong recommendations are:

  1. Understand the problem,
  2. To importantly, take action,
  3. Be in Productive Assets,
  4. Make sure your money is managed by those who understand the new reality and today's true risks.

Wealth can no longer be stored in paper currency or "paper" claims in a Fiat Currency System.

Price and Value are separating and people forget that price is what you pay, but value is what you get. We soon will see an event where it will be perceived that great wealth is again destroyed. However, what investors MUST fully comprehend is that wealth is not destroyed but rather only transferred.

True wealth is the land, the property, plant & equipment, productive enterprises, raw resources and the people who fashion it all. That is the real wealth. Everything else is nothing more than paper claims on the true wealth. These claims can be made worthless overnight but wealth never is.

 

 

 

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Friday
November 7th
2014

JOHN BUTLER on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

John Butler

 

SPECIAL GUEST: JOHN BUTLER , John Butler is the publisher of the "Amphora Report", Author of "The Golden Revolution" and is Chief Investment Officer at Amphora; Atom Capital

OPEN ACCESS

John Butler has 18 years experience in the global financial industry, having worked for European and US investment banks in London, New York and Germany. Prior to launching the Amphora Commodities Alpha Fund he was Managing Director and Head of the Index Strategies Group at Deutsche Bank in London, where he was responsible for the development and marketing of proprietary, systematic quantitative strategies for global interest rate markets. Prior to joining DB in 2007, John was Managing Director and Head of European Interest Rate Strategy at Lehman Brothers in London, where he and his team were voted #1 in the Institutional Investor research survey. In addition to other research, he publishes the Amphora Report newsletter which appears on several major financial websites. A cum laude graduate of Occidental College in California, John holds a Masters Degree in International Finance and Economics from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, associated with Harvard and Tufts Universities.

Published 11-07-14

25 Minutes

John Butler saw first hand during his years with Deutsche Bank and Lehman Bros (prior to its collapse), mounting evidence of Wall Street's "natural self discipline and internal self regulation of risk taking activity being pushed aside and a huge industry bias towards excessive leverage and risk taking control". He knew it could not end well which led him to become independent of this growing institutional mindset and to search for alternative approaches.

"... valuations versus real assets is the key element of the end game"

He recognized that FINANCIAL REPRESSION was fundamentally about limiting investor choice and to further this institutional direction of increasing risk taking to finance government debt. He has therefore came to define Financial Repression from the standpoint of both a narrow and broad definition:

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

BROAD DEFINITION: "Any Policy that constrains the ability of the financial markets and investor particpants in these markets to take rational actions to invest, diversify and manage the risk of their investment as they would personally prefer to do."

NARROW DEFINITION: "A specific tool kit of policies implemented by government which indirectly confiscate the wealth of the private sector and move it to a combination of the public sector and/or "too large to fail" institutions."

FINANCIAL REPRESSION IS ABOUT LIMITING INVESTMENT CHOICE

"The whole point of financial repression is to make it difficult or impossible for an investor to protect themselves"

John feels Financial Repression "is now extremely broad based (globally) and in fact you have to look very closely to find countries not actively pursuing some mix of Financial Repression policies."

A NEGATIVE SUM GAME

Butler has argued in his Amphora Report that competitive currency debasement is "is not a zero sum game but rather a negative sum game because policy makers don't realize that by trying to devalue against each other, unseen they are undermining the very credibility of unbacked fiat currencies generally."

Increasing the BRICS are "becoming increasingly wary of where all this is going and as a consequence are diversifying not only their fiat currency reserves but are diversifying into gold, oil fields and real assets generally."

HOW INVESTORS PROTECT THEMSELVES

"The only free lunch in economics is DIVERSIFICATION. The problem is that in a world of Financial Repression, the way you diversify yourself is very different than a world where financial represion is not an issue."

"There is no way out but Currency Debasement"

John outlines in this video specifically what the "new diversification" must consist of.

He believes the Fed "will blink" as the US dollar continues to rise as a consequence "of the deflationary pressures which are spreading across the world." He sees evidence of a major trend reversal coming in 2015 and possibly before the end of 2014.

 

 

 

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Friday
October 31st
2014

NICK BARISHEFF on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Nick Barisheff

 

SPECIAL GUEST: NICK BARISHEFF , Nick Barisheff is the president and CEO of Bullion Management Group Inc., a bullion investment company which provides investors with a cost-effective, convenient way to purchase and store physical bullion. Widely recognized as a North American bullion expert, Barisheff has written and been quoted in numerous articles on bullion and current market trends.

OPEN ACCESS

Published 10-31-14

33 Minutes

Nick Barisheff Talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION and the Real Chinese Gold Inventories.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Financial Repression is a massive wealth transfer from the savers to the borrowers, where the borrowers are primarily the government and Wall Street.  It is done so subtly that the vast majority of people are unaware of their loss of purchasing power over the years of true financial repression.

It is simply about real negative interest rates which are worse than most realize if you use John Williams' ShadowStats inflation rate of close to 10% in the US. Presently negative real interest rates are witnessed worldwide in all the heavily indebted developed economies.


These Governments haven’t been able to get out from under too much debt by either: 1- Austerity measures, 2- Taxation policies, 3- Inflation or 4- Economic Growth. The only politically expedient solution left is Financial Repression. The middle class feel this in two ways: 1- Lost interest income and 2- Earned income through wages not keeping up with inflation.

As a gold expert, Nick Barisheff believes gold should be included in investor’s portfolio as insurance. Gold should normally be 10% of assets but presently should be considered strategic and the allocation should be closer to 20%. He cites why but startling lays out the degree to which China is presently acquiring Gold.

THE REAL CHINESE GOLD INVENTORIES?

Nick believes China is closer to 5000 tons of gold than the 1000-1700 currently reported by official sources. He believes China is acquiring physical Gold in its Sovereign Wealth Fund which doesn’t have to report it to anyone. The last time they did the Chinese Central Bank Gold Reserves went from 800 to 1600 tonnes.  They haven’t reported in five years.


During this 5 years Nick argues the gold is coming from Leased Gold. There has been approximately 1500 tonnes per year in net leasing over the last 10 years.

Nick believes when this all becomes properly understood it will send shock waves through the system

GOLD EXPROPRIATION

There is no answer to how governments might react to markets suddenly pushing Gold prices up dramatically. Nick is skeptical of countries expropriating gold from its citizens like the US did in the 30’s but investors need to be prepared for surprise reactions. His view is the best answer is Diversification within the 6 Investment Asset Classes and within the Precious Metals class to be diversified between gold, silver and platinum. There have never been government attacks on Silver and Platinum.

  • Investors should be Diversified
  • Investors must Educate themselves
  • Investors Under Current Conditions should Strategically hold 20% of their

This is a most watch video for anyone interested in Gold Investing.

 

 

 

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Saturday
October 25th
2014

GRANT WILLIAMS on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Grant Williams

 

SPECIAL GUEST: GRANT WILLIAMS , Grant Williams is Portfolio and Strategy Advisor for Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore−a hedge fund running $200 million of largely partners' capital across multiple strategies. Grant has 26 years of experience in finance on the Asian, Australian, European and US markets and has held senior positions at several international investment houses. Grant also writes the popular investment blog 'Things That Make You Go Hmmm...'

OPEN ACCESS

 

Published 10-25-14

38 Minutes

Grant has 26 years of trading experience in Asian equity markets, beginning his career with Robert Fleming in 1986 trading Japanese equities and derivatives in both London and Tokyo. Subsequently he has run Asian equity, convertible bond and ADR/GDR trading desks in New York, Hong Kong, and Singapore as well as spending several years trading Australian equities in Sydney. During that time, he spent 6 years with UBS and a further 9 years with Credit Suisse. Most recently he was Head of Asian Equity Trading for Jefferies in Singapore.

This is a 38 minute video discussion between Grant Williams and Gordon T Long on Financial Repression.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Grant suggests that the dictionary defines repression as essentially about trying to repress true feelings. Financial Repression is the government’s attempt to steer behavior away from true investments and into those that assist the government to pay down its debts.

“The result is essentially outright theft by borrowers from savers. The pool of savings on earth is the last really untapped pool of capital that government has to go after”.

According to Grant the explosion in credit through removal from the Gold Standard, financial engineering and keeping interest rates low has left a differential between Credit Growth and GDP that has forced governments with no choice but to adopt Financial Repression policies. By debasing their currency and through inflation government create the most insidious type of wealth transfer that most people just don't understand.

Grant believes we are in a trap with no way out.

He makes his point crystal clear by pointing out how truly devastating Financial Repression has been to savers in real terms:

WILLIAMS ADVISES INVESTORS

  • Be Flexible
  • Consider Cash (Short Term) on a Risk / Reward Basis
  • Consider Gold as an Insurance Policy

MESSAGE

  • Be Engaged,
  • Understand What is Happening,
  • Question What You Are Being Told,
  • Be Cautious,
  • Avoid Potentially Large Drawdowns

 

 

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Saturday
October 18th
2014

PHASE SHIFT?

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

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PHASE SHIFT?

Does the Current Market Volatility Signal A Trend Change in Sentiment?

Published 10-18-14

31 Minutes, 49 Slides

Gordon T Long poses three questions for debate with John Rubino regarding the current Geo-Political Event Risks and Macro Economics developments:

  1. Are the risks in fact bigger and more serious problems than we were seeing while the market was going up?
  2. Could it actually be a matter that investors are reacting differently because underlying mood / sentiment has changed for some reason?
  3. Are we unknowingly now over focusing on the Geo-Political Event Risks and Macro Economics developments as a result of the market going down (maybe for other reasons like reduced liquidity flows that no one is presently talking about - yet)?

John steps the discussion through risks such as: 1-the Islamic State, 2- Ebola, 3- The Strong $$$, 4- Japan & Europe, 5- Junk Bonds and 6- The"October" problem to illustrate that though the problems are more serious the real shift is in perceptions. He suggests that a phase shift occurs when "new headlines suddenly begin to seem both oppressive and really, really numerous, the public starts to feel that maybe we’re not okay after all!“

John suggests that the public is justified in being both confused and nervous because of the degree of market manipulation going on which has distorted price discovery, the pricing of risk and has allowed malinvestment to be hidden by continued roll-overs of every increasing levels of debt. He feels it will end, but it is impossible to know when - just that it will.

Gordon points out that the Federal Reserve still has more ammunition ready to go. He illustrates this with the recent derivatives contract signed between the Fed and the US option exchanges and well as the $300B Reverse Repo account "locked and loaded" in anticipation of any market correction that might ignite a potential cascading collateral collapse. This has the potential to change sentiment from fear to greed once the much needed bond rotation is complete.

Additionally, Gordon feels that though the central bankers are no doubt nervous they have not reached the dangerous point where they panic and pull out all the stops to protect the implosion of an over indebted and financially repressed system.

With the aid of 49 slides, this 31 minute video covers a lot of ground in an easy to follow dialogue.

 

 

 

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Saturday
Oct 4th,
2014

AMERICA'S TERMINAL POLITICAL DYSFUNCTION

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

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with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

25 Minutes

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long continue their discussion on Crony Capitalism in America.

HOW CRONY CAPITALISM WORKS

 -- Private interests influence government spending and regulations with lobbying and campaign contributions: Governance by the highest bidder.

-- The more successful the cronyism, the more money the corporations have to spend on lobbying, which serves to further protect their profits and share of government spending. This feedback loop rewards crony capitalism and limits classical capitalism’s key features: transparent markets and competition.

– An economy dominated by crony capitalism stagnates as competition is suppressed and government enriches those who are “more equal than others” (to borrow a phrase from Orwell)

SPECIAL INTEREST VETO POWER

-- One key dynamic in America’s political dysfunction is the veto power extended to special interests: any reform that costs them profits and/or impacts their share of Federal funds is vetoed.

-- Reform that doesn’t carry political/financial pain is not real reform

-- When every politically potent entrenched interest can veto unfavorable legislation and regulation, real reform is impossible 

ABSENCE OF REAL REFORM

 -- Without real reform, the system stagnates and manageable problems become crises.

-- Since entrenched interests refuse to accept any pain, problems fester for years beneath the half-measures and toothless “reforms” passed for public-relations purposes.

-- The problems (unfunded liabilities, explosive financial risks buried in the shadow banking system, etc.) then blossom into full-blown crises that cannot be resolved.

-- Crisis management leads to politically expedient Band-Aids that mitigate the symptoms without addressing, much less solving, the underlying political/financial diseases.

THE CRONY TRIBUTE SYSTEM

Gordon argues that Crony Capitalism today closely resembles the Roman "Tribute" System also adopted by the Mafia.Crimes being created today are met with fines. Guilty parties do not go to jail but rather the corporation pays a fine. Billion dollar crimes are assessed Million dollar fines. A percentage that closely mirrors a Tribute System. The government makes money through enforcement but not prevention. Corporations make fortunes with confidence that the government will settle for a piece of the fleecing of the people - and the game continues.

Gordon believe,s as the recent tapes released by Carmen Segarra indicate, the US regulatory system has effectively put the "Fox in charge of the Hen House"

 

 

 

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Tuesday
October 1st
2014

DOUGLAS FRENCH on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Douglas French

 

SPECIAL GUEST: DOUGLAS E. FRENCH , Author, Past President of the Ludwig von Mises Institute and Casey Research Contributor

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Douglas French of Casey Research

on FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Published 09-30-14

28 Minutes

He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, under Murray Rothbard with Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe serving on his thesis committee. He is the former president of the Mises Institute. He is the author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money Supply and Walk Away: The Rise and Fall of the Home-Ownership Myth. Douglas E. French teaches at Troy University and writes for Casey Research.

This is a 28 minute video discussion between Douglas E French and Gordon T Long on Financial Repression.

Douglas French was a banker for 20 years in Las Vegas during its heady days and has many stories including witnessing sale people selling derivative products. "There is nothing like being on the ground. It is very easy to speculate and second guess people about bubbles (how could you do that!) when you are sitting in the Ivory Tower, but it is a lot different when you are on the ground seeing the bubble from inside out".

"The biggest bubble we have is US Treasuries. The believe you can't get hurt is a quality you always see in a bubble. The idea that lending an entity, that is $17T and going to $18T and beyond in debt, and will never be able to pay that back and the idea that you will get 2.5% for 10 years and it is 'return free risk' is certainly bubble territory!"

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

“You have PhD’s at the Fed trying to create economic growth with inflation and low rates. The repression is that people like you and I won’t ever be able to retire because we won't be able to get any return on our money so we can prop up the government and keep it in business."

This is the overall Macro Strategy of the government but central planning has never worked! ..... They are essentially trying to print their way out of a jam! ....... Because of Financial Repression almost ¾ Trillion dollars has gone to the government that should be in private hands!!!"

FRENCH WARNS INVESTORS

  • People should be worried about their pensions,
  • People should be worried about the Fed's Repo market and primary dealer delivery failures. This will likely be the cause of the next crash. Money Managers are playing musical chairs every quarter to keep this game going.
  • People should be concerned about liquidity seizures which need to be closely monitored as money managers currently scramble for collateral.
  • "Collateral through Rehypothecation has been pledged and pledged, over and over again.... the average person is going to extraordinarily shocked by something they never saw coming because it is something that is hard to explain and hard to understand".

 

 

 

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