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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - August 09th, 2015 - August 15th, 2015      
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2
GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
08-11-15 CHINA 4 - China Hard Landing

Devaluation Promises to Boost Exports, But Adds Stability Risk

China's central bank has signaled a new stage in the management of the yuan and opened the door to depreciation to support export competitiveness. The People's Bank of China adjusted the yuan central parity — the daily fixing used to guide the market — down 1.9 percent today, the largest drop on record. The central bank also said that, going forward, the central parity will closely reflect the market price.

That marks a significant shift in policy, as the central bank ends its eight-month resistance to market pressure for yuan depreciation. The direction of travel from the market is clear. At 6 a.m. New York time, the spot price had already fallen to 6.3250 to the dollar, from 6.2097 at Monday's close.

The PBOC's move reflects the depth of concern about China's growth, which threatens to fall below the government's 7 percent target for the year. Exports contracted 8.9 percent year on year in July as a 14 percent annual appreciation in the real effective exchange rate choked off demand.

The timing likely also reflects concern that as the Fed moves toward a first rate hike, a peg to a rising dollar would mean continued appreciation of the yuan against the currency of trade rivals.

Reviving flagging exports will require a significantly larger depreciation. Exports year to date have been flat from a year ago. Based on our calculations, a 10 percent depreciation against the dollar would take export growth back to 10 percent year on year, all else being equal.

The risk is that depreciation triggers capital flight, dealing a blow to the stability of China's financial system. Our estimate is that a 1 percent yuan depreciation against the dollar would trigger about $40 billion in capital flight.

The calculation from China's leaders is likely that, with $3.6 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, substantial bank deposits stashed in reserve at the PBOC, and controls on cross-border flows, they can manage any risks. Assuming a 10 Spot Price, Central Parity and Trading Band See this story on the Bloomberg terminal with additional charts here. percent depreciation triggered $400 billion in capital flight, they would still be left with FX reserves in excess of $3 trillion.

Years of yuan appreciation increased the appeal of investment in China and had a broad positive impact on asset prices. Yuan depreciation will have the reverse effect. That's a negative for the struggling equity market and the nascent recovery in real estate — where speculative demand plays a major role.

Depreciation will deal a blow to China's hopes for yuan inclusion in the IMF's SDR basket. It will decrease international investors' willingness to hold yuan, and will likely irk the IMF — which has only recently shifted away from its characterization of the currency as undervalued.

There are also political economy considerations. President Xi Jinping is set to meet with President Obama in September. Competitive depreciation of the yuan will not make that conversation any easier. Neither will it improve Beijing's relations with regional rivals Tokyo and Seoul, who fear any gain for China's exporters comes at the expense of lower sales for their own firms.

China likely views any international protests as a manageable second-order consideration. That's especially true as they can legitimately present depreciation as driven by the market, and other major central banks have adopted policies that promote exchange-rate depreciation.

In terms of China's longer-term rebalancing agenda, we give the central bank credit for finding a policy that combines stimulus and reform. A weaker yuan will provide a boost to growth. A more market-set exchange rate is in line with the direction of travel set at the Third Plenum, and will promote more efficient allocation of productive resources.

Looking at the historical data as a guide to the possible extent of coming moves, the biggest three-month yuan move on record was a 4.2 percent appreciation at the start of 2008. It would take a 14 depreciation to take the yuan back to mid-2014 levels, when its latest period of appreciation in real effective terms started.

 

JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

   
08-12-15 CANARIES
ANALYTICS
 
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

   

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

 

08-15-15

SII

ENERGY

 

 

 

Recall crude oil’s dramatic 2008 price collapse. The high that year was in July at $147.50 a barrel. By December, the price had plummeted to $30.28

This chart shows how Elliott Wave Theorist subscribers were warned ahead of time.
 
 
 
It was a few weeks before the top when the Theorist said, “Crude Oil: One of the greatest commodity tops of all time is due very soon.”
 
Eventually oil did climb back above $100 a barrel. But it took two-plus years, and even then prices remained far below the July 2008 high.
 
Crude traded roughly sideways through June 2014. Then came another nosedive, and about nine months later crude was trading below $44 a barrel.
 
Once again, subscribers were warned weeks ahead of time. Here’s what the May 2014 Theorist said:
 
“The multi-year outlook is for much lower prices.”
 
After oil’s relentless multi-month decline, the January 2015 Theorist said that “now that bearish conviction has crystallized, oil is likely to rally.”
 
By May 5, oil’s price climbed to just above $60 a barrel. Yet as our long-term analysis suggested, the bounce was relatively short-lived:
 
“US oil settles at a six-year low of $43.08 a barrel” (CNBC, Aug. 11).
 
Where are oil prices headed?
 
Well, one prominent financial observer has been consistent with his outlook for oil.
 
“Gary Shilling thinks the price of oil is going way lower. The economist and financial analyst wrote an op-ed for Bloomberg View discussing the various reasons why he thinks the price could get down to $10-20 per barrel” (Business Insider, Feb. 17).
 
Shilling is a deflationist. In an Aug. 3 tweet he reiterated his oil forecast: “Prices will drop even further.”
 
As always, there are voices saying the glass is half full: The founder of a financial firm recently told CNBC that “Oil does not have much more of a downside left.”
 
Time will tell which of these forecasts is correct.
 
Consider the bigger picture – namely the downtrend in other commodities (like copper). Think about the economic weakness in Europe and now China. Consider the record levels of global debt. Reflect on the ineffective stimulus efforts of central banks around the world. And finally, consider this excerpt from the July Theorist:
 
People who are afraid that deflation will lead to economic contraction are correct. That’s why the subtitle of Conquer the Crash includes both words: Deflationary Depression. But the trip to the finish line is a zigzag path. Results don’t show up overnight. What’s happening now is nothing compared to what’s coming.
 
"Peak Oil" -- And Other Ways Crude Oil Fooled Almost Everyone
Remember "Peak Oil"? About ten years ago, it was a hugely popular theory "explaining" why oil prices would only go higher. They didn't. These excerpts from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist highlight the flaws in the conventional approach to forecasting oil prices and show you a better method -- a method that has done a remarkable job forecasting the future path of oil prices.

 

 

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