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Weekend June 14th, 2015

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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS

1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
7- Sovereign Debt Crisis
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar Weakness
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
35 - Corporate Bankruptcies
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
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"BEST OF THE WEEK "

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - June 7th, 2015 - June 13th, 2015      
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2

STUDIES - CENTRAL BANKING RISK

They Mave Have Lost Control

     
06-09-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-10-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-11-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-09-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

TO TOP
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

   
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
06-12-15

THEMES

FLOWS

FLOWS

CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

RETAIL - "Double" Seasonal Adjustments

The Curious Case Of "Strong" Retail Sales: Is The US Already Applying "Double" Seasonal Adjustments 06-12-15 ZH

There was some confusion why following yesterday's stronger than expected retail sales, which broke a 4-month series of disappointing data and which according to most economists were good enough to bring forward the Fed's first rate hike in a trader generation, bond yields tumbled.

Well, in the aftermath of the whole "double seasonal-adjustment" travesty, in which even the BEA admitted any bad economic data (read Q1 GDP) will be "massaged" enough until it becomes good under the "scientific" pretext of "residual seasonality", and following the suggestion of Dynamika Capital's Alexander Giryavets, we decided to take a look at not seasonally adjusted retail sales.

We found something interesting.

The thing about retail sales is that while they are supposed to smooth out month-to-month changes in any given data series, they should be virtually identical on a annual, year-over-year basis. After all the same "seasonal" adjustment that was applicable this May, was applicable last May, the May before it, and so on, unless of course, there was some massive, climatic or otherwise shift to the underlying reality.

To the best of our knowledge there wasn't.

And indeed, when looking at the annual change in headline retail sales data we find that, as expected, the seasonally-adjusted (blue) and unadjusted (red)retail sales series are almost identical...

... but not quite.

If one zooms in on the most recent data, one finds something surprising: a substantial rebound in SA retail sales, which according to the Dept. of Commerce rose 2.7% while unadjusted retail sales rose by just 1.0%,the worst montly print in over two years and hardly inspiring confidence that the economy is strong enough for the Fed to engage in a rate hike.

To isolate the problem we decided to look at only the annual (YoY) change in May data. The chart below shows the surprising finding: while every year for the past 4 years the Unadjusted May data was equal to or stronger than the Adjusted retail sales print, in May of 2015 this was reversed, and quite substantially.

To show just how much of an outlier May 2015 was compared to May in prior years, here is the seasonal "adjustment ratio" for the month of May for every year from 2008 to 2015, by which we define the ratio of "seasonally adjusted" to "unadjusted" retail sales. Spotting the outlier should be easy enough.

So, our question: while we know that the US Department of Truth, err. Commerce, will soon adjust GDP data for all weak quarters higher just so the narrative of a rebounding economy isn't lost when one looks at the actual fact, has this "residual seasonality" adjustment already been applied to retail sales? Because we fail to understand just why the seasonal adjustment to May retail data should be as profound as shown above.

Source: (Double?) Seasonally-Adjusted and Unadjusted retail sales

06-13-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

RETAIL - Why McDonalds Is Ending Monthly Sales Reports

Why McDonalds Is Ending Monthly Sales Reports: Global Sales Drop For 12 Consecutive Months 06-08-15 ZH

Ten days ago we reported with much amusement that the "turnaround story" that is McDonalds has decided to pull the oldest trick in the collapsing business book, and would stop reporting its monthly comparable sales starting with the month of June.

Moments ago MCD reported its May comp store sales which confirmed what we cynically noted is the reason for the data halt, namely that no matter what it does, MCD simply can not "turnaround" its foundering business, and after a drop of -0.6% in April, May global comp sales dropped once again, this time by -0.3%. This was the 12th consecutive month of global comparable store declines. Next month will be the 13th. There won't be a 14th.

The good news for Europe is that with a jump of 2.3% in May comp store sales, the European recovery is clearly taking hold and the tens of millions of unemployed youths can finally afford a 99 cent meal.

But perhaps the biggest irony is that the drop was driven not by Europe or Asia, where one would expect the strong dollar to be wreaking havoc on US-denominated sales, but in the US, where same store sales dropped -2.2%, more than the -1.7% expected.

We wonder if the decline in USD-denominated US sales will also gain be blamed on the strength of the US currency?

Finally, as we have said all along, it really is time for MCD's new boss Steve Easterbrook to start wearing many more pieces of flair or he will join his predecessor Don Thompson in "retiring" prematurely any month now.

 

06-13-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII
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