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Weekend May 31st, 2015

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1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
7- Sovereign Debt Crisis
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar Weakness
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
35 - Corporate Bankruptcies
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
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38- Government Backstop Insurance
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40 - Natural Physical Disaster

 

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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - May 24th, 2015 - May. 30th, 2015      
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STUDIES - MISPRICING SIGNALS      
05-27-15

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2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

CORPORATOCRACY - CRONY CAPITALISM

The Banks: How The Six Largest US Financial Holding Companies Make Money 

This week Macro Watch takes a close look at the six largest US Financial Holding Companies: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

 In 2014, these six institutions held $9.9 trillion in assets, earned $64 billion in profits and employed more than 1 million people. They also paid a record $33 billion in legal settlements related to a series of financial scandals. Nevertheless, at year-end, their market value exceeded $1 trillion.

In this video we examine their income statements and balance sheets to learn how they make their money.   How much do they earn from lending? How much from investing? And how will their profits be impacted by The Volcker Rule - which bans proprietary trading - when it takes effect this July?

  • Have they become less risky in the years following their near-systemic collapse in 2008?
  • Should we be concerned that their over-the-counter derivatives activity is measured in hundred of TRILLIONS of dollars?
  • How will they be impacted by reforms designed to force all standardized derivatives to trade through exchanges?
  • Which of these banks were involved in the LIBOR and Foreign Exchange manipulation scandals?
  • How are their share prices performing?

 Finally, what about bank regulation? Is the government regulating the banks or - as many believe - are the banks regulating the government?

These are some of the questions considered in this crash course on the six institutions that dominate American finance.

If you are a Macro Watch member, log in now and watch "The Banks".


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05-28-15 THEME

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
05-29-15 THEMES

FLOWS

CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

RETAIL - McDonalds

 

What do you do when month after month you have nothing but bad data to report, such as in this case McDonalds with its weekly comparable store sales shown on the ugly charts below?

Simple: you have two choice - you either seasonally adjust the data (or in the case of US GDP, double-seasonally adjust it), or if that is not possible since unlike US GDP, your numbers are at least somewhat indicative of underlying reality, you stop reporting them altogether.

That's what McDonalds just did.

  • MCDONALD'S LAST REPORTING OF MONTHLY COMPS WILL BE FOR JUNE
  • MCDONALD'S SAYS JUNE SAME-STORE SALES WILL BE REPORTED WITH 2Q

From Bloomberg:

McDonald’s Corp. plans to stop reporting monthly same-store sales results. The company will provide same-store sales for June with its second-quarter earnings report, then cease providing the data, Heidi Barker, a spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

And to think the new boss - who we hope did not promise the board anything about "transparency and accountability" - could have avoided all of this if, as we suggested, he had worn at least 37 piece of flair.

 
05-3015

SII

US IND

CONS

 

RETAIL - Gaming

"What is the worst that could happen? [Gaming] stocks go down before they go up. But they will go up. We are preparing for a 100 percent increase in shares within the next three years."

05-23-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

RETAIL - WalMart

Walmart Sales, Comps Miss; Operating Income Tumbles; Runs Out Of Scapegoats 05-19-15 Zero Hedge

05-23-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

RETAIL - Consumer Recession

The Recovery Itself Unravels; Consumer Recession 05-13-15 Alhambra

05-23-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII
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