MONTHLY RESEARCH COMMENTARY - 3-mo FREE trial subscription:  read it now BEFORE you start - click here      
NOW AVAILABLE:  New Audio Discussions - Every Mon, Wed & Fri    

Bookmark and Share       

HOME   ||   Today's Tipping Points   ||  Audio/Video  ||  Presentations   ||   Commentary   ||   Understanding Abstraction   ||  Meet Gordon   ||   Subscriptions

"EXTEND & PRETEND "
Read the Series...

"SULTANS OF SWAP"
Read the series...

archives open in new window
 
ACT I
Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
Read the series...


archives open in new window
 
EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

"UR all PIGS from HELL

FREE COPY...

Current Thesis Advisory:
"EXTEND & PRETEND"

PDF, 62 pages
Published November 2009


Click to view Index

CONTACT US
Use Promo Code: INTRODUCTION
in the Email Subject


Bookmark and Share


"INNOVATION"
Read the series...


archives open in new window
  
INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
Read the series...


archives open in new window
 
PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

SUBSCRIPTION PLAN III
Global Macro Tipping Points

STRATEGIC MACRO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

2016 THESIS:

CRISIS OF TRUST in an ERA OF UNCERTAINTY

NOW AVAILABLE FREE to Trial Subscribers

200 Pages


What Are Tipping Poinits?
Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
Global-Macro in Images:  Understanding the Conclusions

Reading the right books?
No Time?

We have analyzed & included
these in our latest research papers!


Accepting Pre-orders

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up
for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!

 


IMPORTANT NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS:
Adobe Reader Ver 6 or higher is necessary to open these reports.

If you experience any problems opening or viewing these documents, you need to update your Adobe Reader plugin.  You can do this now, for free, by clicking here:   Undate Your Adobe Reader Here

 
Archives - 2015  

DECEMBER

November 30th, 2015

 

 

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Sectional Update - 446 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

GLOBAL SLOWDOWN STEEPENING (Summary Highlights - 98 Page .pdf)
Credit Cycle is Reacting

ALL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ARE WARNING

Governments and central banks risk tipping the world into a fresh financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund has warned, as it called time on a corporate debt binge in the developing world. Emerging market companies have “over-borrowed” by $3 trillion in the last decade, reflecting a quadrupling of private sector debt between 2004 and 2014, found the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report.

This dangerous over-leveraging now threatens to unleash a wave of defaults that will imperil an already weak global economy, said stark findings from the IMF’s twice yearly report.

BIS: Quote or Title (Link)
BIS warns “unrealistic and dangerous to expect that monetary policy can cure all the global economy’s ills”. Warns that recent turmoil is not caused by isolated incidents:

– Debt levels are now so extreme they threaten the financial system,
– Ultra low rates have led to mal-investment and bigger boom/bust cycles,
– Emerging markets vulnerable to deeper crises,
– ECB easy money may juice markets for a while but reckoning is coming,
– BIS acknowledge that central banks rig markets,          
– Gold and silver protect against crises in financial system.

OECD:  OECD Chief Economist Catherine Mann said It's Time To "Temper The Frothiness" In Markets as the head of the OECD, Angel Gurría says spendthrift countries are leaving themselves exposed to next shock.

WB: World Bank's chief economist Kaushik Basu has warned “The world economy is looking so troubled that if the US goes in for a very quick move in the middle of this I feel it is going to affect countries quite badly."

IMF: IMF Fears $3 Trillion Credit Crunch; Lagarde Says "IMF Credibility at Stake", Calls for US to Give China More Voting Power. In its half-yearly update on the health of the world economy, the Washington-based fund predicted expansion of 3.1% in 2015, 0.2 points lower than it was expecting three months ago and the weakest performance since the trough of the downturn in 2009. The IMF is warning that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation after cutting its global economic growth forecast for the fourth successive year.  “Despite considerable differences in country-specific outlooks, the new forecasts mark down expected near-term growth rates marginally, but nearly across the board. Moreover, downside risks to the world economy appear more pronounced than they did just a few months ago.”

DECEMBER

November 26th, 2015

 

DECEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

RISK & TIPPING POINTS SECTIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Risk: Assessment Positional Framework/ Institutional Monitors/ Situational Analysis
11-29-15
207
Risk: Signals Geo-Political Risks
11-30-15
181
Risk: Levels Aggregrated Risk Model
11-28-15
13
Tipping Points Update Tri-Annual Tipping Points
11-28-15
51
 
RISK & TIPPING POINTS Sectional Update

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

11-30-15
446
DB Index - GMTP DECEMBER 2015 (Available on Request - See Full Scribd Index Above) Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
11-30-15
253mb
 
Executive Summary
11-30-15
98

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

DECEMBER 2015

 


DECEMBER VIDEO

GLOBAL SLOWING STEEPENING

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

NOVEMBER

October 26th, 2015

 

 

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Sectional Update - 1029 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

"QE FOR THE PEOPLE" (Summary Highlights - 96 Page .pdf)
Helicopter Money (OMF) Coiming During the Next Drawdown

When a country consumes more than it produces for a sustained period of time, its Fiscal & Monetary choices will steadily decline. We would argue slowly at first, then faster. Correlated with US credit growth it is also exponential!

Because of this we believe the Federal Reserve and other developed economies’ central banks will soon be forced to roll out, or unleash in a coordinated fashion, a number of new policies to stem a potential global economic crisis.

QE IS NOT WORKING - So fully expect authorities to double-down and broaden their ill conceived monetary experiment!

In previous reports we have laid out that easy credit, quantitative easing and ZIRP initially brought demand forward. More importantly, this excess credit fostered a massive global oversupply. Quantitative Easing has stopped bringing demand forward and in fact is now working against this by reducing Pricing Power and unleashing powerful global deflationary pressures. More and more economists are recognizing this and writing about it.

The real possibility of an economic recession is looming. The central bankls will be forced to use new tools to fight this threat

NOVEMBER

October 26th, 2015

 

NOVEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

US ECONOMIC SECTIONAL UPDATE

* Schedule Subject to Change

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
US Macro Overlay
10-21-15
51
Economic Indicators
 

Business Cycle - Analysis

10-21-15
30
  Business Cycle - Jobs
10-21-15
68
  Business Cycle - Sentiment 10-21-15
91
  Business Cycle - Consumption
10-22-15
62
  Business Cycle - Growth
10-22-15
64
Situational Update - Global Slow Down Forces Fed to Hold on Rate Increase
10-24-15
87
Situational Update - Here We Go Again With the Debt Ceiling Charade!
10-23-15
110
US Public Policy Situational Update - Russia & Iran Escalate Syrian Conflict
10-24-15
107

Situational Update -tbd

10-24-15
322
SPECIAL FOCUS

HELICOPTER MONEY TAKES FLIGHT IN THE US

10-25-15
29
SPECIAL SUPPLEMENT RECESSION RUMBLINGS 10-25-15
46
Tri-Annual Sectional Summary   10-26-15
1029
Executive Summary
10-26-15
96

Data File : Full Index (Full Down Loadable File Available on Request)

10-26-15
251MB

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

NOVEMBER 2015

 


NOVEMBER AUDIO

The annual publication schedule calls for NO accompaning AUDIO this month (see Subscribers page) due to the size and scope of the US Economic Update

OCTOBER
September 28th, 2015

 

 

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Sectional Update - 966 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Too Much Supply & Too Many Brands Combine with Too Much Credit

The world faces both broad global economic issues imbalances as well as increasingly dangerous regional problems. Whether these regional dilemmas are:

  • The Syrian refugee problem in Europe,
  • Russia and China placing military assets on Syrian soil,
  • The collapse in commodity prices from oil in the Middle East / Russia to basic materials in Emerging Economies,
  • The collapsing Chinese stock market and China's global export growth,
  • The lack of well paying jobs and growing youth unemployment in the developed economies,
  • The politcal corruption issues in Brazil or a Communist taking the reins of the UK Labor Party,

.. the world is a 'tinderbox' which any conflict can potentially ignite into a global fire.

This month we examine these regional headaches through a broad array of insightful charts.

OCTOBER

September 28th, 2015

 

OCTOBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO - REGIONAL UPDATE

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page).

TRI-ANNUAL: INTERNATIONAL REGIONAL UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages

EU

 

397

  EU: Syrian Refugees a Hugh EU Political Problem 09/27/15
144
  ITALY: Italian Youth Unemployment plus Fleeing Refugees Hit Italy 09/27/15
52
  FRANCE: French Debt Bigger than Most Appreciate with Exposed Banks 09/27/15
50
  GERMANY: Refugee Problem at a Dangerous Tipping Point 09/27/15
45
  UK: Who is Jeremy Corbyn? Why is the UK Worried?

09/27/15

60
  IBERIAN PENINSULA: Recovery is an Illusion 09/27/15
42
ASIAN Update

ASIA

 

   
  CHINA: Yuan Devaluation Rattles FX World 09/26/15
224
  JAPAN: Nothing Seems to be Working As ABEnomics Loses Support! 09/26/15
159

BRAZIL: Economic Recession and Now Political Instability

09/26/15
194
VIDEO
THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS
 
OCTOBER 2015 REPORT
09/28/15
966
Data File: Fully Indexed Master
09/28/15
245mb
Executive Summary
09/28/15
55

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

OCTOBER 2015

September 23rd, 2015


OCTOBER VIDEO

THE COMING GLOBAL AUTO ABYSS

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Global, Macro Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the OCTOBER 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

SEPTEMBER
August 30th, 2015

 

 

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Sectional Update - 916 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

ECHO BOOM - Revisited (Summary Highlights - 55 Page .pdf)
Emerging Markets Feeling the Pain

SEPTEMBER

August 30th, 2015

 

SEPTEMBER 2015 Edition Release Schedule

GLOBAL MACRO UPDATE

Downloadable Individual .pdf
Focus
Available
Pages
Situational Analysis & Analysts Reports
08-28-15
152

Economic Indicators & Metrics

08-28-15
124
Central Bank Developments
08-29-15

285

Monthly Highlights
08-30-15
360
  Emerging Markets Growth, Credit & Forex Problems - Fx Plummet
08-30-15
91
THE ECHO BOOM - Revisted
08-30-15
916
Data File: Fully Indexed Abstraction
08-31-15
143.5
Executive Summary
08-31-15
55

* Schedule Subject to Change - Updated Daily during the production release cycle.

SEPTEMBER 2015

August 26th, 2015


SEPTEMBER VIDEO

THE ECHO BOOM - Revisited

There is an accompaning AUDIO as per the subscription schedule (see Subscribers page) covering Macro, Regional Developments and the US Economy, which is not covered in the written report.

Go to the GMTP VIDEO PAGE as part of the AUGUST 2015 Update >> CLICK HERE

 
HOME  ||  Today's Tipping Points   || Audio/Video  ||  Presentations  ||  Commentary  ||  Understanding Abstraction  ||   Meet Gordon ||  Subscriptions 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

DISCLOSURE  Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.