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Tue. June 28th, 2016

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KEY TO TIPPING POINTS

1 - Risk Reversal
2 - China Hard Landing
3- EU Banking Crisis
4- Bond Bubble
5 - Geo-Political Event
6 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
7 - US Stock Market Valuations
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Credit Contraction II
10 - US Dollar
 
NEW Stagflation - Slow Growth & Personal Inflation
11 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
12- Sovereign Debt Crisis
13 - Global Governance Failure
14 - Chronic Unemployment
15 - Growing Social Unrest
16 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
17 - Terrorist Event
18 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
19 - Commercial Real Estate
20- State & Local Government
21 - US Reserve Currency
 
22 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
23 - Poorly Regulated Corruption
24 - Food Price Pressures
25 - US Banking Crisis II
26 - Global Output Gap
27 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
28 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
29 - Corporate Bankruptcies
 
30 - Central & Eastern Europe
31 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
32 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
33 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
34 - Pandemic / Epidemic
35 - Resource Shortage
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
38- Government Backstop Insurance
39 - Oil Price Pressures
40 - Natural Physical Disaster

 

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MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

TIPPING POINTS, STUDIES, THESIS, THEMES & SII

COVERAGE THIS WEEK PREVIOUSLY POSTED - (BELOW)

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - June 26th, 2016 to July 2nd, 2016      
TIPPING POINTS - This Week - Normally a Tuesday Focus
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     1
CHINA BUBBLE     2

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

3

BOND BUBBLE     4
GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     5
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     6
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS     7
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE     8
CREDIT CONTRACTION II     9
US DOLLAR STRENGTH     10
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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics - WEDNESDAY STUDIES
STUDIES - MACRO pdf      

TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

   
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX      
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur

2016 - CRISIS OF TRUST

  • LOSS OF CONFIDENCE & TRUST - People No Longer Believe in the System
  • DEMONIZATION OF OPINION & EXPRESSION - Era of "Controlling the Narrative"
  • ERA OF UNCERTIANTY - A World of Increasing Uncertainty & Risk
  • CASUALTIES OF UNCERTAINTY - Individualism, Risk Taking, Capitalism & Economic Growth
2016 THESIS 2016
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Posts Normally on Thursday OR as Key Updates Occur
I - POLITICAL
     

CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM

MACRO MAP - EVOLVING ERA OF CENTRAL PLANNING

 

G THEME  
- - CRISIS OF TRUST - Era of Uncertainty G THEME  

CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION - RESENTMENT.

US THEME PAGE
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM G THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
 
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MA w/ CHS

 
III-FINANCIAL
     

FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

FLOWS - Capital, Liqudity & Credit Flows

LIQUIDITY: Central Bank Liquidity Increases has slowed or Stopped

>> CREDIT: Cycle has turned

DEBT: Defaults/ Bankruptcies Will Emerge

 

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME

w/ R Duncan

CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE 12-31-15 THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage
     

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

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