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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

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MACRO ANALYTICS

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SEE VIDEO: MACRO WATCH: FLOWS & the Liquidity Gauge

Richard Duncan

26 Minutes with 30 Slides

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DollarCollapse.com

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OfTwoMinds.com

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ROUND TABLE

Saturday
October 26th
2013

DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000... and when?

PART II

Lance Roberts

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

ROUND TABLE:

Special Guest: LANCE ROBERTS Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation's biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

 

OPEN ACCESS

DOW 20,000?

with Special Guest LANCE ROBERTS

Principal of STA Wealth Management

& Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

24 Minutes, 32 Slides

In Part II of this multi part series we ask Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long whether they see DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000 ahead, and when?

CHARLES HUGH SMITH

Charles sees the US economy facing a Willie E Coyote moment! The markets are no longer a 'Buy & Hold" investment as he expects volatility while the markets complete a Megaphone Top. If the markets reach 20,000 it is not a legitimate top, but rather a false one. As the megaphone pattern suggests, the markets will just as likely be followed by DOW 5,000, as excessive mal-investment and mispricing is wrung out of the markets.

Charles Hugh Smith argues through supporting charts that:

1- CORPORATE EARNINGS & DEBT: Corporate Debt has been growing at a much larger rate than Corporate EBITDA for sometime now. Earnings need to be growing faster than debt for a DOW 20,000 to be legitimate.

2- FULL TIME EMPLOYMENT versus SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFICIARIES: Full Time Employment has not been growing as fast as Social Security Beneficiaries. This is unsustainable. The solution will require higher taxes or cuts in benefits. Both will reduce household disposable income in a 70% consumption based economy. How do corporations further increase profits from record levels while facing such a secular shift?

3- PRODUCTIVITY: US productivity has increased 58% since the mid 90's. Meanwhile government spending is up 300% and financial markets have doubled. This makes rising markets unsustainable.

Without these three metrics being dramatically reversed, any DOW 20,000 is not legitimate. Though in nominal termsthe market may reach these lofty levels, in real terms this will be quite a different matter.

GORDON T LONG

Gordon T Long looks at the question from a Macro perspective and argues that we need to analyze the Wiemar Germany of the 20's by considering what would have been different if:

1- Germany had been the world's reserve currency?

2- If the rest of the world had not been on the gold standard but were all fiat currencies?

The answer suggests the road we are currently on is a modified form of the von Mises Crack-up Boom.

Gordon's market charts will leave you with a different perspective.

 

Listen to Part I - Lance Roberts. In the upcoming Part III John Rubino shares his outlook.

.

 

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ROUND TABLE

Saturday
October 19th
2013

DOW 20,000?

PART I

Lance Roberts

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

ROUND TABLE:

Special Guest: LANCE ROBERTS Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation's biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

 

OPEN ACCESS

DOW 20,000?

with Special Guest LANCE ROBERTS

Principal of STA Wealth Management

& Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

20 Minutes, 25 Slides

In Part I of this multi part series we ask Lance Roberts whether he sees DOW 20,000 or DOW 5,000 ahead, and when?

The economics and fundamentals overwhelmingly suggest the US equity market is now being driven solely by Federal Reserve liquidity injections.

The only way Lance can see DOW 20,000 is to see the market as being in stage 3 of a classic 'blowoff' market cycle:

  • Phase 1:  What Bull Market?  Just A Bounce Before The Next Crash.
  • Phase 2:  I Missed The Bottom So I Will Wait For A Pullback.
  • Phase 3:  Market Is Going Up Forever, Just Get On And Ride.

He argues convincingly that Bull Markets don't start from these levels and with these market metrics. His Economic Output Composite Index supports this view.

Listen as Lance kicks-off this discussion with Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long, who share their views as the three go around the table outlining out their respective views (Part II - Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long).

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Saturday
October 12th
2013

THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

PART II

Coming Collateral Contagion

Michael Snyder

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: MICHAEL SNYDER, Author & Publisher of TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

 

OPEN ACCESS

 

PART II

Coming Collateral Contagion

(Credit Freeze II)

SPECIAL GUEST: MICHAEL SNYDER

18 Minutes, 29 Slides

We are marching steadily towards the first Global Liquidity Trap. The evidence is clear when the facts are thoughtfully analyzed.

With the clear thinking of a trained lawyer, Michael Snyder in four articles in Part I points out the startling realities of what is shaping our world. In Part II Michael ties these together with his views and interpretations. His conclusions fit very well within the Globalization Trap Model developed by GordonTLong.com.

TIME FOR PRUDENT PREPARATION & ECONOMIC INSURANCE

The framework outlined allowed both participants to draw important conclusions on what investors should be doing to prepare for this high probability eventuality.

 

 

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Tuesday
October 8th
2013

THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

PART I

Four Points of Evidence

Michael Snyder

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: MICHAEL SNYDER, Author & Publisher of TheEconomicCollapseBlog.com

 

OPEN ACCESS

 

PART I

Four Points of Evidence

SPECIAL GUEST: MICHAEL SNYDER

24 Minutes, 29 Slides

We are marching steadily towards the first ever Global Liquidity Trap. The evidence is clear when the facts are thoughtfully analyzed.

With the clear thinking of a trained lawyer, Michael Snyder in four articles points out the startling realities of what is shaping our world.

TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENT

  • A Fundamental Economic Transformation,
  • Job Losses the New Norm,
  • 56,000 Manufacturing Facilities Have Left America,
  • Global Labor Arbitrage,
  • Technology Now Directly Replacing Labor,
  • Shrinking Cost of Technology Reducing Breakeven.

“47% Of ALL US Jobs Could Be Automated Within The Next 20 Years!”

A GUTTED MIDDLE CLASS

  • Economic Dispair
  • Two Americas:
    • Wall Street, Washington DC, Silicon Valley …. HAVES
    • Small Towns, Rust Belt, Detroit …. HAVE NOTS
  • Jobs Are Part Time with no Benefits,
  • Insufficient Disposable Income to Live a Middle Class Life

NEW MODELS & TEMPLATES TO CONFISCATE WEALTH

  • Cyprus is a Precedent – “Trial Balloon”
    • Got Away With It
  • New Model In Different Forms
    • Poland’s Pension Confiscation
  • EU Finance Ministers
    • Regime of Bank “Bail-Ins”

THE TELLTALES OF ANOTHER "WEIMAR" GLOBAL CURRENCY EVENT

The facts are clear.

 

 

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Saturday
October 5th
2013

THE FED SHOCKER

PART II

The Consequences

John Rubino

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

 

OPEN ACCESS

The Fed Shocker

PART II

The Consequences

Gordon T Long & John Rubino

20 Minutes, 32 Slides

The Fed shocked the markets with its reversal on the expected September initiative of a "Taper" Policy. What are the consequences of this apparent "delay"?

There are immediate ramification and there are others associated with Moral Hazard and (Un)intended Consequences due to a protracted period of what can only be termed Monetary Malpractice. These and the following are discussed in this video by Gordon T Long and John Rubino.

CLEARLY EVIDENT

  • With economy decelerating and interest rates already rising, Fed can’t end QE.
  • Massive infusions of new dollars for as far as the eye can see.
  • Rising danger of instability.
  • Hot money flows back into emerging markets, destabilizing them AGAIN.
  • Weaker dollar?
  • Rising precious metals?
  • Stock market? Technically ready for a major correction, but all that new money…
  • Bonds? Fed will keep trying to force long rates down. Will they succeed?

NOT SO EVIDENT

  • A Glimpse At What Will Be a Much Larger Problem - The Fed Was Caught Off Guard in June!
  • We have Past the Event Horizon and a Return Near Impossible without a Crisis - Credibility Shaken.
  • We Now Have Global “Abe-nomics”
  • Serious Shortage of Risk Free Collateral - The TBAC Warning Left Unheeded
  • Mispricing & Mal-Investment
  • Elements of Moral Hazard and Unintended
  • Currency Wars Return - Now “Risk-On” with Hot Money Flows

The question John & Gordon grapple with is whether the Fed has now intentionally or unintentionally placed the world on the road to a Von Mises Crackup Boom?

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.