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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

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STRATEGIC MACRO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

MACRO ANALYTICS

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SEE VIDEO: MACRO WATCH: FLOWS & the Liquidity Gauge

Richard Duncan

26 Minutes with 30 Slides

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DollarCollapse.com

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OfTwoMinds.com

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Saturday
March 29th
2014

What Country Will Blow Up Next?

 

Gordon T Long

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Financial Survival Network Radio

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What Country Will Blow Up Next?

with Kerry Lutz & Gordon T Long

AUDO ONLY: 24 Minutes

From the Financial Survival Network:

Gordon T. Long appeared on the show today. We took a trip around the world surveying the vast landscape of malinvestment and insane government policies. So many countries are on the edge that it’s impossible to know which one will implode.

  • In Japan their money printing and demographics are a sure recipe for disaster.
  • The US’s student loan bubble and auto loan craziness can’t end well.
  • The EU is sinking money into US treasuries.
  • Russia is determined to sink the dollar.
  • China is seeing defaults and is now starting to see its first bank runs.

So flip a coin, your guess is as good as ours.

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Saturday
March 22nd
2014

UKRAINE:

Financial Warfare

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

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UKRAINE: Financial Warfare

with John Rubino & Gordon T Long

23Minutes, 50 Slides

Starting with a discussion of the history of the Crimea and with the aid of 50 slides, John Rubino and Gordon T Long show how intractable the problem in the Ukraine really is. As a result the current political actions are highly likely to lead to serious unintended consequences.

ESCALATING & DESTABILIZING SANCTIONS

The globally interconnected financial world is not prepared for a new version of the cold war. An escalating cycle of economic and financial sanctions has unknowable consequences to all parties. Shocks to any part of the global financial system will quickly cascade and lead to unexpected and potentially uncontrollable contagion.

INTENDED / UNINTENDED CYBER WARFARE RISKS

The worrisome wild card in the Ukraine situation is the use of cyber attacks which has already been witnessed. Whether employed by the sovereign powers involved in the conflict, or by disruptive political activist groups, the damage can be dramatic and destabilizing. The "Snake" virus already coursing through the electronic network veins of the Ukraine has left "Denial of Service" as the new replacement acronym for "Shock and Awe!"

DEBT SIZE versus COMPLEXITY & FINANCIAL FRAGILITY

Global debt is now so large that the risks associated with financial fragility leaves the entire global financial system exposed to elements of unknowable complexity.

The Ukraine situation is much more serious than the media is portraying. This is not another Georgia. The Ukraine is an Economic, Energy and Military choke point that financially none of the players can concede nor walk away from.

Russia's very existence may be at stake in this first financial battle of the 21st century.

 

 

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Saturday
March 8th
2014

UKRAINE: Energy, Economic & Military Choke Point

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

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UKRAINE: Energy, Economic &

Military Choke Point

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

22 Minutes, 25 Slides

Gordon T Long and co-host Charles Hugh Smith discuss the current situation in the Ukraine from the perspective of what westerners must understand about the escalating crisis. As usual it is about Power and Money and has little to do with the needs of the Ukraine people. The public must not confuse the needs of sovereign powers with the strategies of the 'elites', or as Charles Hugh Smith refers to as the "Deep State".

AN ETHNIC DIVIDE

The Ukraine area is actually two countries ethnically, with historically the Crimea always been part of Russia. This ended abruptly when in the 50's a reportedly drunken President Nikita Khrushchev (the only Ukrainian Russian President) annexed the Crimea to the Ukraine. As a result of this decree, which was chronicled to have taken less than 15 minutes of consultation, a large Russian population and the Russian Navy's only southern warm water port was annexed to the Russian Ukraine.

When we refer to the Crimea we need to fully apreciate we are talking about a central core of Russia and not a peripheral territory. It is no surprise that the infamous summit at the end of WWII between Roosevelt, Churchill and Stalin was held in Yalta, within the Russian Crimea. From this strategic region the three global leaders planned the future of the post WWII world.

It should therefore be no surprise that any Russian President is not going to allow the Crimea to be controlled through a NATO agreement with the Ukraine.

THE PETRODOLLAR & LNG

Critically and little appreciated is that the US Petrodollar strategy is at stake in this fight. LNG is not oil which the Petrodollar is based on. LNG distribution and pricing in US dollars therefore must be achieved at all cost. This is a central reason for the regime change in Syria. LNG sold only in US dollars from Saudi Arabia / Qatar (and soon also through Africa) will halt Rubble:Euro exchange and instead require the use of the US$.

There is a lot going on below the surface in the Ukraine. It is a choke point from an Energy, Economic and Military perspective.

This is all laid out clearly in a fast paced 22 minutes with 25 detailed slides.

 

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Saturday
March 1st
2014

MACRO WATCH: Flows & the Liquidity Gauge

 

Richard Duncan

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: RICHARD DUNCAN , Economist, Author & Publisher of RichardDuncanEconomics.com.com

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ABOUT RICHARD DUNCAN

Richard Duncan is the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on asset prices and economic growth.

He is also the author of three books on the global economic crisis.  The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003); The Corruption of Capitalism (2009); and, The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (2012).

Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok.  He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.

Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio.

HALTING A US RECESSION

The Fed Taper is Presently Too Tight

SPECIAL GUEST:

Richard Duncan

22 Minutes, 25 Slides

According to global economist Richard Duncan, since 1952 every time Total US Real Credit Growth fell below 2%, the US has experienced a recession. This correlation has been marked on 9 separate occasions. We are now below 2% and as a consequence the Federal Reserve will soon have little choice but to make a course correction in the current "Taper" monetary policy.

$2.3 TRILLION IN TOTAL US Y-o-Y CREDIT GROWTH REQUIRED

Approximately $2.3 Trillion in total Y-o-Y credit growth is required. According to Richard Duncan's very detailed tracking at Macro Watch, the Fed will be between $500 and $1T short.

PROBLEM COMPOUNDING QUICKLY

There are a number of developments that have placed the Federal Reserve and its new Chair Janet Yellen in this awkward policy quandary.

Sub 3% global growth levels have traditionally been a reliable indicator of recessionary economic troubles in the US.  As 25% of the world economy, a US recession has historically been the catalyst for sub 3% world growth. Today with Emerging Markets being more than 50% of the global economy, the reverse may be a new contributing development.

SUB 3% WORLD GDP GROWTH

Another consequential development is falling foreign direct investment. FDI is now at unprecedented Bear Stearns and Lehman lows and getting worse fast!

DRAMATICALLY SLOWING US FOREIGN FLOWS

CONCLUSION

The chart below, taken from a survey of 222 fund managers responsible for a collective $591 billion in assets under management conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch between Feb. 7 and Feb. 13, 2014, shows where investors think we are in the global economic cycle right now. We have overlapped it with our work and sense we are highly likely in the midst of a major inflection point.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.