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Sunday
January 25th
2015

CHAOTIC TURMOIL: Its Actually Logical If You look Closely!

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

OPEN ACCESS

 

CHAOTIC TURMOIL: Its Actually Logical

If You Look Closely!

Published 01-26-15

30 Minutes

John Rubino feels "the economic policy around the world is not sustainable. They only have one tool which is easy money which they must do more and more of it over time to maintain normality in the world. At some point they run out of the ability to create more currency and monetize more debt. The debt that is required becomes overwhelming and the system spins out of control We are seeing the early stages of that now with all sorts of crazy volatility springing up in places around the world where no one suspected."

"The Central Banks of the World are Beginning to lose control of the process!"

MAKING SENSE OF IT ALL

John tries to make sense of what appears to be unrelated chaotic events. He tackles the most recent four:

1)  ECB & Quantitative Easing Announcement

2)  SNB Abruptly Unpegging the Franc

3)  The Global Energy Shocker

4)  Gold's Sudden Movement

 

 

ECB & QUANTITATIVE EASING ANNOUNCEMENT

"The Eurozone is in danger of breaking apart and falling into deflation which is a disaster for an over indebted economy!"

SNB ABRUPTLY UNPEGGING THE FRANC

"Switzerland is a very small country but a very big story. This is the first central bank to opt-out of the currency war! Basically, they surrendered but it yet has to be determined if you can surrender in these currency wars?"

THE GLOBAL ENERGY PRICE SHOCKER

"The US employment gains associated with the Shale Oil boom are gong to be reversed out... as are the junk bonds which will be the 'sub-prime mortgages' of this bubble ... on balance the US is gong to be hurt more by falling oil prices"

GOLD'S SUDDEN MOVEMENT

"The point is coming where everyone figures this out and doesn't want to hold the currencies anymore. You are seeing this in the behavior of gold in the crisis economies .. Russia and Euros"

WHAT IS OCCURRING

A SHAKEN BELIEF IN THE OMNIPOTENCE OF THE CENTRAL BANKS BEING ALL POWERFUL AND THAT THEY CAN BE TRUSTED!

 

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Saturday
January 24th,
2015

CHARLES BIDERMAN talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Charles Biderman

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : Charles Biderman is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc., an independent investment research firm based in Sausalito, CA that specializes in publishing detailed daily coverage of stock market liquidity. He is interviewed regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and is quoted frequently in the financial media, including Barron's Magazine, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and Investor's Business Daily. He is the author ofTrimTabs Investing: Using Liquidity Theory to Beat the Stock Market (John Wiley & Sons, 2005). He holds a B.A. from Brooklyn College and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.

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30 Minutes

A seasoned professional, Charles Biderman points out that when you create money, you create debt. When that debt goes to front run demand you will face the problems we are now facing in the energy industry with supply or ghost cities in China. Zero interest rates has brought forward demand which is now resulting in commodity deflation. "There is now no relationship between the economy and the stock market because of zero interest rate policies!".

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"The markets are rigged by the central bank policy of zero interest rates. To the extent the markets are rigged we don't have free markets. That would be Financial Repression!"

A 'NO GROWTH' WORLD

"We are in a no growth world. We have governments in the US, Europe,Japan and China that are anti-growth, anti-free market growth. On the other hand we have central banks that are committed to creating as much money as is necessary to keep stock markets as high as they can be even though we have a total disconnect between the economy and the markets. The only reason the markets are doing as well as they are doing (both equity and bonds) is because of zero interest rates. In essence free money from the central banks!"

"The zero interest rate policy of the global central banks is creating a global recession, not a global recovery!"

"Remember, this whole free money binge was to be a bridge over the downturn so the economy would recover. But when you have no-growth, anti-growth policies in place prohibiting real economic growth you are going to have no growth and higher prices."

NO-GROWTH, ANTI-GROWTH POLICIES

  POPULATION GROWTH NEW JOB GROWTH %  
Clinton
75%
 
Bush
25%
 
Obama
16M
2M
12.5%
* Mostly Part Time Jobs

The US needs to grow at close to 10% a year to fund the current debt and entitlement obligations. Charles feels it is obvious that his is not going to happen. "The US is bankrupt! .... like Vallejo, CA we will be forced to restructure!"

"The central banks have no clue what they are doing .. at some point the people will realize the emperor has no clothes and the US debt is not worth the paper it is written on!"

 

 

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Thursday
January 22nd
2015

JOIN THE STUDENT LOAND DEBT JUBILEE

 

Gordon T Long

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Financial Survival Network Radio

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JOIN THE STUDENT LOAN DEBT JUBILEE

with Kerry Lutz & Gordon T Long

AUDO ONLY: 24 Minutes

From the Financial Survival Network:

Gordon T. Long  joined us today. In our last discussion, we talked about the continued decline in credit quality across the nation and the world. Now Gordon has uncovered a new wrinkle in student loan debt. Much of it is being deferred or forebearanced under various government programs, all under the radar screen. We also discussed the reason that QE failed in the US, Japan and elsewhere, and why it will fail in the EU. QE cannot create new demand, it can only move up future demand to the present. Also discussed the buck, the Euro, the Franc the peg and more.

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Monday
January 19th,
2015

Steve Keen talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Steve Keen

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : STEVE KEEN is an Australian economist and author. He was formerly an associate professor of economics at University of Western Sydney. Currently, he is a Fellow at the Centre for Policy Development, and Professor and Head of the School of Economics, History and Politics at Kingston University in London.

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30 Minutes

THE ART OF GETTING AN EDUCATION IN ECONOMICS

Professor Steve Keen has found that top flight universities are dominated by very narrow, doctrinaire teaching. This stylized view has resulted in critics of this view only getting jobs in low ranking university. With pride Steve Keen puts his latest university in that camp. "If you want a good education in Economics, you don't go to a good university. The wider range of thought and diverse analytics is found at the lower ranking university. Kingston University is one of those classic university!"

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

He does not consider himself an Austrian Economist though he sees it has a number of key tenets that 85% of the economist aren't aware.

He sees Financial Repression as more about the size of the debt burden within an economy which drives the behavior of central banks. It is about the excess weight of private debt crushing the economy. Everything else is a result of this."

The results include the "badly thought out Quantitative Easing response to a crisis which they caused by effectively ignoring the growth in private sector debt, but aren't even aware that this is the cause of the crisis." "Very few banks have any real clue of what they are doing. If you doubt this, all you have to do is read the minutes of the Federal Reserve. They wouldn't dare make them up because it makes them look like a bunch of fools who have no idea what is happening."

Obviously this sort of view does not make Professor Keen popular with the establishment, seeking prestigious and lucrative government and teaching positions.

QE IS NOT MONEY PRINTING!

Irving Fishers explanation of where the Great Depression evolved from was the level and growth of private debt along with too low a rate of inflation. Prof Keen is of this school in which reducing this debt will only result in further falling economic growth. Former Fed Chairman and expert on the Great Depression did not believe this. Professor Keen considers Bernanke's argument against this a "load of waffle!". "It is completely naive to the role of banks in the economy!"

Professor lays out why he was able to warn of the coming 2008 Financial Crisis an why he does not feel the current "revival' can last anymore than 5 years before the same sort of thing occurs.

MODERN DEBT JUBILEE

This interview is worth listening to simply for Professor Keens concept of Modern Debt Jubilee and the Syrian history of successfully doing this every 49 years. You may not agree with his view but it an interesting history lesson of how this worked prior to the advent of central banking.

Many may also agree with his views and the discussion on why the Euro was always a mistake as will be Draghi's expected upcoming QE announcment. Few will likely also disagree with Professor Keen that moden central banking do not properly understand the role of banks, money, debt and capitalism.

Steve's closing advise: "Don't trust the economists!!"

 

 

 

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Friday
January 16th,
2015

Martin Armstrong talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Martin Armstrong

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : Martin Arthur Armstrong is the former Chairman of Princeton Economics International Ltd. He is best known for his economic predictions based on the Economic Confidence Model, which he developed. In September 1999, Armstrong faced prosecution by the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for fraud. During the trial, Armstrong was imprisoned for over seven years for civil contempt of court, one of the longest-running cases of civil contempt in American legal history. In August 2006, Armstrong pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy to commit fraud, and began a five-year sentence.

 

OPEN ACCESS

28 Minutes

With a history of being primarily a currency forecasting consultant to institutions such as government and large corporations, Martin Armstrong has been advising since the 1974 recession (which was caused by currency) and every crisis since.

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

"What it really is, is a power struggle where we go through cycles where people have confidence in the people, then government. It oscillates back and forth and now we are in a phase we can call the 'Private Sector Phase', where people are questioning government."

"Repression comes in when it is about whatever it takes to maintain power! Largely it is about the fact they are going broke because they have promised all sorts of pensions, and these sorts of things, but they have not funded them!"

GOVERNMENT COMPETENCE

"There is no conspiracy .. it is much worse .. it is really the 'Keystone Cops'! ... government creates the illusion it is in control, but it isn't in control!"

"People give government and politicians way too much credit. They assume they actually know what they are doing! ... what people don't understand about governments is that we have academics advising and primarily lawyers running the government, with few with any experience or understanding of economics. We should hire traders who at least have some experience!"

"They just don't understand. There is no design. Everything has been very 'ad hoc. Its really about the spoils.... giving it to family and friends!"

"If you look at the debt since 1950, you will see that 70% of the national debt is accumulated interest. It didn't go to provide schools and roads and things of this nature. The whole socialist idea is complete nonsense!"

'NO PEG HAS EVER LASTED'

The EU, EURO and the recent removal of the Swiss Franc Euro peg are examples of the fundamental problems with government. Martin has consulted to various EU and Swiss authorities since 1998. He is miffed at what he has witnessed but it is no different than has sees everywhere else.

WE ARE IN A DEBT BUBBLE

"We are not facing a stock market crash, we are facing a bond market crash! That is far worse"

"What people don't realize is that the US Great Depression was a sovereign debt crisis. All of Europe defaulted and went into a moratorium, South America defaulted for about the fourth time and China defaulted. You halt capital formation and that is what a bond crash does. In the great Depression everyone lost. That is what we are facing!"

"We are in a period where on a global scale, capital doesn't know where to go and the culprit is government. We are in period where there is going to be more confidence to buy bonds such as General Motors than that of any government! There is a substantial difference between Private and Public Debt"

RISING TAXES ARE DEFLATIONARY

Martin believes there is an extremely serious tax problem, especially at the municipal level due to unfunded pensions and obligations. Because wages are not rising in the USA, this is now acting in a deflationary fashion.

 

 

 

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Saturday
January 10th,
2015

Robert Wenzel talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Robert Wenzel

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : ROBERT WENZEL  is editor & publisher of EconomicPolicyJournal.com and of Target Liberty. He also hosts the weekly podcast The Robert Wenzel Show. His guests on the show have included, Jesse VenturaRoger Stone, James AltucherDavid StockmanGuy Kawasaki,Oliver StoneJudge Andrew NapolitanoSteve ForbesPeter Schiff and Gary Johnson.

He is author of The Fed Flunks: My Speech at the New York Federal Reserve Bank and the soon to be published, Always Fighting for Freedom: The Early Wenzel.

 

OPEN ACCESS

39 Minutes

Long time Austrian School Economist and Libertarian with a professional background in Wall Street Finance, Robert Wenzel warned of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis in his book: The Fed Flunks: My Speech at the New York Federal Reserve Bank and was subsequently asked to Washington and the Federal Reserve to detail how he knew where "I really gave it to them!!"

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

He sees the central banks of the world and the Federal Reserve as manipulating the economy through interest rates and flows of funds which makes it very difficult for the individual to make money consistently which represses everyone but gives a major advantage to Wall Street. Much of this is done through restrictive regulations where the "devil is in the details". Very few really understand the significance of the "details".

Active in Silicon Valley, Robert Wenzel has seen closeup how the 'regulatory details' offer major advantage which give staggering advantage and financial gain to the few, but disadvantage or competitively impede many in their business enterprise. Though Robert Wenzel does not use the term he describes the workings of Crony Capitalism which Macro Analytics has chronicled in many previous videos.

"It is a rigged system where they simply write regulations when things go off the rails for them!"

What this means is it is now making it almost impossible for the average person and small business entrepreneur to survive and prosper.

"THE WORST GET TO THE TOP"

When asked how informed politicians are of what is going on, Wenzel is reminded of Nobel Laureate Economist, Fredrich von Hayeks writings in the "Road to Serfdom" that:

"The worse get to the top"

They are willing to say and do anything to get to the top. These are the ones that know what is going on. A lot of elected politicians simply don't know what is going on and are marginalized. As in the world of finance, "bad money forces out good money".

"INFLATION & INTEREST RATE SURPRISES AHEAD"

Wenzel believes the Fed's stated inflation target of 2% is in actuality 3%. Until this level is achieved the Fed is not going to let up. Unfortunately because of the economic lags and distortions in the signals, Wenzel sees it getting out of control resulting in inflation levels not seen since the late 1970's. Having presented at the Federal Reserve, Wenzel says:

"The Fed is surprisingly unaware of anything outside of money printing! ... It is stunning how off the page they are and how they have no clue, as evident in the Fed minutes where they don't even mention the money supply!"

 

 

 

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Friday
January 9th,
2015

Dominic Frisby talks FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

Dominic Frisby

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : DOMINIC FRISBY , Comedian & Financial Author.

A comedian 
ʻViciously funny and inventive,ʼ The Guardian; ʻMasterful,ʼ Evening Standard; ʻGreat comedy talent,ʼChortle. I am resident MC at Londonʼs oldest comedy venue, Downstairs At The Kingʼs Head, and have performed many full-length shows – both straight stand-up and character comedy. (Read some reviews).

A writer...
His book, Life After The State, (‘Extraordinary’, James Harding, director of BBC News; ‘Incredibly thought-provoking,’ Al Murray; ‘Brilliant,’ Steve Baker, MP) has nothing to do with comedy. It is a deadly serious dismantling of the way society is run. I am currently working on a second – Bitcoin – the Future of Money?

Dominic co-wrote and narrated the acclaimed documentary about the global financial crisis, The Four Horsemen – 1.25 million hits and counting(‘Excellent writing and narration from DF’ Front Row). I write a weekly investment column for Moneyweek about gold and finance

OPEN ACCESS

27 Minutes

Now 45 years old and having been a comedian since his mid twenties, Dominic Frisby got interested in Economics and Finance in 2005 prior to the Financial Crisis. He subsequently became a devout Gold Bug and follower of Austrian Economics and Sound Money when he decided he needed to manage his money himself.

He concluded that:

"Money should be independent. The role of money is to be a medium of exchange, a store of wealth and a unit of account. But instead Money has become a political tool. The mixing of money and politics is very dangerous!"

Dominic feels strongly that many of our basic daily terminologies such as inflation, capitalism and socialism have become corrupted in their meaning and usage. The same is true for "money". "All of this has distorted people's behavior in an almost corrupt way" which he describes as only a comedian can.

 

DEBT BOMB - The Global Financial Crisis Stripped Bare by Dominic Frisby

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

Dominic Frisby defines Financial Repression as:

"The Government manipulation of money in order to achieve a specific goal. The current goal is to bailout the financial system for the excesses it created in the lead up to the 2008 Financial Crisis and also to bailout themselves."

"Governments have spend way more than they have earned and now have debt that is unpayable and the way they are paying it back is through manipulation, which other people call Financial Repression."

WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS

"This will go on for my life time and my children's life time .... until something else happens". Frisby says "don't shot the messenger but our leaders have gotten away with it so far and history shows leaders have always played tricks with money and debt". "Financial Repression will always exist as long as we have leaders, just like sinning will always exist - you just have to accept it!".

SOCIAL GOVERNMENT ENTITLEMENTS

The government according to Dominic Frisby, who has spent his life within the UK's social entitlement program, should have nothing to do with Healthcare, Education and Welfare. "All of this doesn't need to be as expensive as it is!"

"We need less state, more market and more ... 'people'!"

CONCLUSION

"We need to question everything, including the questioners questions and their dogma"

 

 

 

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Wednesday
January 7th,
2015

2015 GLOBAL THEMES - Achilles Heel of Deflation

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

OPEN ACCESS

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

27 Minutes - 32 Slides

Charles Hugh Smith and Gordon T Long discuss the Achilles Heel of Central Bank Policy: Deflation. They feel it will be a central theme in 2015 and will foster new central policy initiatives which the financial markets will react violently to.

DEFLATION

Charles Hugh Smith defines Deflation in a different manner than most which leads to some very interesting perspectives and conclusions.

"Any increase in the purchasing power of nominal wages".

  • The rise of software, robotics and global wage arbitrage is resulting in wages not rising along with prices. As a result, everyone who depends on earned income is getting poorer.
  • For the actual real-world the result of central banks easing, money pumping and zero interest rates is Deflation.
  • Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) fuel over-capacity which leads to declining prices: deflation with a capital D.
  • Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) additionally fuels malinvestment which leads to over valued collateral and an eventual collateral collapse as NPL (non-performing loans) debt cannot to "rolled" (i.e. no one no longer wants to risk financing)

EXCESS INFLATION

Inflation creation when the business cycle needs to contract.

i.e. 2% targets during systemic deleveraging.

  • This is because the Prime Directive of central banks is to make it ever easier to service yesterday's debt.
  • Excessive inflation results from central banks being forced to push negative real interest rates too low (to protect debt holders) relative to real economic expansion and capital wealth creation.

PURCHASING POWER

The store of Purchasing Power is true WEALTH which governments are transferring.

  • All the phantom collateral constructed with mal-invested free money for financiers will eventually implode.

Easy Credit Creates Excess Supply & Demand Which Eventually Reaches Equilibrium

  • BROUGHT FORWARD DEMAND WHICH THEN LEAVES A DEMAND RATE VACUUM
  • INFLATION REDUCES REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME WHICH FURTHER REDUCES DEMAND

== > THE GLOBALIZATION TRAP

 

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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