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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

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STRATEGIC MACRO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS

MACRO ANALYTICS

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SEE VIDEO: MACRO WATCH: FLOWS & the Liquidity Gauge

Richard Duncan

26 Minutes with 30 Slides

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Saturday
February 22nd
2014

WHAT BLOWS UP FIRST?

Part II

China? A Wealth Confiscation Shock Wave?

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

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WHAT WILL BLOW UP FIRST?

Part II

China? A Wealth Confiscation Shock Wave?

with John Rubino & Gordon T Long

17 Minutes, 20 Slides

In Part II of this two part series John & Gord continue on their around the globe review in assessing what is most likely to blow up first. The problems in China dominates the discussion as does what can only be described as a Wealth Confiscation Shock Wave.

CHINA?

The Shadow Banking which was central to the 2008 Financial Crisis is now orders of magnitude larger in China with even less regulatory oversight.

As a consequence Non Performing Loans (NPL) are now skyrocketing.

Despite attempts by China to bring some control to the Shadow Banking activities it appears to be too little, too late.

WEALTH CONFISCATION SHOCK WAVE ?

What Should Individuals Do?

  • Monetary Expansion is Currency Debasement

Nothing More Than Wealth Confiscation to Finance Excess Debts

  • Macro-Prudential Strategy of Financial Repression

Accelerating Government Wealth Confiscation

 

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Saturday
February 22nd
2014

WHAT BLOWS UP FIRST?

Part I

Europe?, Japan?, Emerging Markets?

 

John Rubino

 

SPECIAL GUEST HOST: JOHN RUBINO, Author & Publisher of DollarCollapse.com

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WHAT WILL BLOW UP FIRST?

Part I

Europe?, Japan?, Emerging Markets?

with John Rubino & Gordon T Long

20 Minutes, 30 Slides

In Part I of this two part series John & Gord takes us an around the globe review in assessing what is most likely to blow up first. There was no shortage of troubling destinations!

EUROPE?

It is clear that Europe is headed for yet another recession unless the ECB adopts its version of Quantitative Easing - FAST! The Bundesbank's surprising capitulation on ECB sterilization is indicative of the seriousness of the accelerating problem.

JAPAN?

Japan has been running huge public sector deficits for two decades and now has more debt as a percent of GDP – 220% – than any other major country. Possibly more than any major country ever. Japan then decided in 2013 to inflate away its debt by forcing the Bank of Japan to engineer an inflation rate of at least two percent

ABENOMICS is not working:

    • Growth is slowing
    • Trade deficit high and rising
    • 43% of this year’s federal budget will be borrowed
    • Debt-service will consume 24% of federal budget

IMPLICATIONS: A currency crisis waiting to happen.

EMERGING MARKETS - SUB-PRIME COUNTRIES?

Hot money from developed world debt monetization caused asset bubbles and excessive borrowing in India, Thailand, Turkey, Brazil, etc. Now the how money is flowing back out, removing support from artificially-inflated asset prices. Emerging market currencies plunged, forcing most of them to impose capital controls and/or raise interest rates.

Brazil’s overnight rate now 10.5%, Turkey’s 12.5%. Emerging markets are the sub-prime borrowers of this cycle, the first to lose access to cheap credit in a crisis.

Developed world banks are on the hook for hundreds of billions to these countries. If they implode, it will be another “Lehman Moment,” forcing the Fed, ECB and BOJ to choose between bailing out everyone in sight or presiding over the death of the global financial system.

GLOBALIZATION TRAP

Gord additionally illustrates how these scenarios fit within the work conducted at GordonTLong.com regarding the GLOBALIZATION TRAP outlined in their Free Thesis 2014 report.

 

    • Part 1 - Europe, Japan & Emerging Markets
    • Part 2 - China and The Wealth Confiscation Shock Wave
 

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Saturday
February 15th
2014

EDUCATION: The USA's Problem & Its Solution

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

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EDUCATION: The USA's Problem & Its Solution

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

25 Minutes, 27 Slides

Charles Hugh Smith discusses his latest book "The Nearly Free University &The Emerging Economy" with Gordon T Long. Charles describes his book as a critique of the US higher education system.

A CRITIQUE OF THE US HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM

The Current System of Higher Education is in Crisis:

  • Rising Cost of Higher Education,
  • No Jobs For the Investment of Time and Money,
  • A Declining Yield

We MUST therefore urgently reconnect higher education with the EMERGING ECONOMY and those parts of the economy that are growing and flourishing

THE LEGACY SYSTEM IS OBSOLETE

  • Media and knowledge are no longer scarce—both are essentially free,
  • Students no longer need to be congregated in classrooms to hear oral lectures; the lectures can be distributed at almost no cost via the Internet,
  • The factory model of teaching the same texts and curriculum no longer makes sense; every digital device is a library and a display for oral lectures,
  • Lessons and methodologies of learning can now be tailored to individual students (adaptive learning) via interactive software,
  • The need for live oral lectures as the primary (and presumed to be best) mode of teaching has vanished.

THE DIMINISHING RETURN PROBLEM

THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE CHANGED

  • Colleges must separate Research and Educational funding,
  • Education versus Occupational Training must be differentiated,
  • Internships versus Apprenticeship must be understood and why corporations are no longer training,
  • "Time is the New Competitive Dimension" and the educational systems needs to understand what this means,
  • The New Economy as a consequence requires Soft Skills such as Collaboration, Life Time Learning, Innovation and Entrepreneurial.

FOUR CENTRAL STRUCTURAL PROBLEMS

Gord overlays four arguments regarding the USA's central structural problems which supports Charles' book:

  • The Education System MODEL is wrong,
  • The US CULTURE  regarding educational expectations is wrong,
  • Educational FUNDING for specifically training is inappropriate and wrong,
  • The FINANCING infrastructure is on a path towards collapse as $100Bs of student loans will soon begin to default in waves. Which is obviously also wrong!

Enjoy this fast moving 25 minute video supported by 29 slides.

 

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Saturday
February 1st
2014

MACRO WATCH: Flows & the Liquidity Gauge

 

Richard Duncan

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: RICHARD DUNCAN , Economist, Author & Publisher of RichardDuncanEconomics.com.com

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ABOUT RICHARD DUNCAN

Richard Duncan is the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on asset prices and economic growth.

He is also the author of three books on the global economic crisis.  The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003); The Corruption of Capitalism (2009); and, The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (2012).

Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok.  He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.

Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio.

MACRO WATCH: Flows & the Liquidity Gauge

SPECIAL GUEST:

Richard Duncan

26 Minutes, 25 Slides

Richard believes we no longer have Capitalism driving economic growth but rather Creditism. In the past, economic growth was driven by saving and investment. It doesn’t work that way any more. Now, the economy is driven by credit creation and consumption. Capitalism has evolved into Creditism! As a result credit growth today drives economic growth, liquidity determines the direction of asset prices and the government attempts to control both to make sure that the economy continues to grow.

Understanding this new dynamic is critical to making investment decisions within the current Fiat Currency regime environment. In this video Richard Duncan outlines what he believes the Federal Reserve will be forced to do in 2014 and 2014 to avoid as US and potential global recession. More Quantitative Easing is on the horizon.

THE 2% CREDIT GROWTH FLOOR

Since the end of WWII, every time the US has fallen below 2% credit growth the US experienced a recession and prompted a shift in Monetary Policy. The tenuous global economic environment couldn't handle a US recession and the Federal Reserve is acutely aware of this and will do everything in its power to forestall such a possibility.

THE MACRO WATCH LIQUIDITY GAUGE

$2.3 TRILLION IN LIQUIDITY REQUIRED

Richard analytically illustrates why the Federal Reserve must add an additional $500B to $1T in liquidity over current "Taper" estimates. Investors shouldn't bet on QE Ending in 2014!

Based on the current Fed Taper schedule, Liquidity will become tight in the third quarter of 2014 and there will be a significant liquidity drain beginning in the fourth quarter. If the Fed sticks with this schedule, interest rates are likely to rise by mid-2014. Higher interest rates would cause a fall in property prices, stock prices and net worth, which would cause the economy to fall back into recession. To prevent that, the Fed is likely to create more fiat money through QE than its taper schedule suggests.

This is must listening for serious investors.

 

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Saturday
February 1st
2014

THE RETAIL CRE DOMINO

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

 

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THE RETAIL CRE DOMINO

 

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

28 Minutes, 27 Slides

Gordon T Long and Charles Hugh Smith lay out the looming domino they see in the US Retail CRE (Commercial Real Estate) space due to the advancement of online and robotic technologies. The rapidly advancing ramifications are both startling and alarming.

EXAMPLES DISCUSSED

    1. Store Replacements: Redbox Model
    2. Instore Kiosks
    3. Applebee's "Waiter Terminator"
    4. Smoothies "Automated Dispensers"
    5. McDonalds's "Smart Restaurant"
    6. The "Brown Truck" Store

AN 'OVER-STORED' AMERICA

The Retail building boom in America has created yet another bubble - The Stealth Retail CRE Bubble.

SHADOW BANK FINANCING

Gordon outlines how the Shadow Banking system has 'morphed' since the 2008 financial crisis. He explains why Commercial Real Estate financing is presently seriously exposed to a crisis in short term funding disruptions, in a similar fashion to Residential Real Estate prior to the 2008 crisis. He shows the new instruments that are now being used and why they will be the new acronyms of the next financial crisis.

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.