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Tuesday
April 29th
2014

It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008

 

Gordon T Long

 

SPECIAL GUEST: Financial Survival Network Radio

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It's Beginning to Look A Lot Like 2008

with Kerry Lutz & Gordon T Long

AUDO ONLY: 26 Minutes

From the Financial Survival Network:

Gordon T. Long joined us today for a discussion about the rapidly growing fissures in the worldwide credit markets. Cars sales are up but so are sub-prime auto loans. People can afford auto lease payments, but they can’t afford to handle the huge repair bill at the end of the warranty period. China’s credit bust is here and you better watch out for what’s next.

 

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Saturday
April 26th
2014

TREACHEROUS MARKETS AHEAD

 

Richard Duncan

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST: RICHARD DUNCAN , Economist, Author & Publisher of RichardDuncanEconomics.com.com

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ABOUT RICHARD DUNCAN

Richard Duncan is the publisher of Macro Watch, a video-newsletter that analyzes trends in credit growth, liquidity and government policy in order to anticipate their impact on asset prices and economic growth.

He is also the author of three books on the global economic crisis.  The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (2003); The Corruption of Capitalism (2009); and, The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (2012).

Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the World Bank in Washington D.C., and headed equity research departments for James Capel Securities and Salomon Brothers in Bangkok.  He also worked as a consultant for the IMF in Thailand during the Asia Crisis.

Richard has appeared frequently on CNBC, CNN, BBC and Bloomberg Television, as well as on BBC World Service Radio.

TREACHEROUS MARKETS AHEAD

The Fed Taper is Presently Too Tight

SPECIAL GUEST:

Richard Duncan

33 Minutes, 34 Slides

According to global economist Richard Duncan, there are treacherous markets ahead in 2nd half 2014 and investors need to be on heightened alert.

TREACHEROUS MARKETS AHEAD

The reasons for caution is that the liquidity drain in 2nd half 2014, due to the Federal Reserve's Policy implementation of Taper, will potentially take the floor out from under US equity markets. Because of this Richard Duncan strongly believes the Fed is highly likely to reverse policy when equity markets inevitably begin weakening.

WHAT NOW MOVES CURRENCY MARKETS

Quantitative Easing within the global fiat currency regime has ushered in a new methodology for determining currency changes that is not fully appreciated.

CHINA'S ECONOMIC CRISIS

Richard is extremely concerned about China and feels its growth model of export-led and investment-driven is now in crisis. He illustrates why the current distortions in gross fixed capital formation and investment are unsustainable and the precarious position it leaves modern China in.

There is a lot to consider in this 33 minute video supported by over 34 originally researched slides.

 

 

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Saturday
April 19th
2014

PART II

What the Technicals Are Telling Us

 

Bert Dohmen

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : BERT DOHMEN , Publisher of The Wellington Letter and President Of Dohmen Capital

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DOHMEN: What the Technicals Tell Us!

Part II

with Bert Dohmen & Gordon T Long

13 Minutes, 22 Slides

Bert called the recent market weakness and sell off on CNBC Asia on March 23rd. He said it was going to be a race between Wall Street getting the backlog of IPO's out and the market caving in. He was very specific in identifying the extreme warning signals in the NASDAQ and Small Cap stocks and the identification of a key reversal on March 21st in the S&P. A key reversal day which he feels is always seen at major tops.

Though Bert feels a near term bounce is likely the week of April 14th he doen't believe it will be sustained. The smart money has been and will continue to take full advantage of any market strength to exit.

Bert had taken full advantage of the prior parabolic run-up with a strategy of buying those stocks with no earnings as he believed those stocks would rise the "fastest and mostest". That period he feels is now over for the year. He exited all long positions on March 24th which is an unusual position for Dohmen Capital to take but they feel so strongly about the degree of risk now at hand.

THREE PEAKS AND A DOMED HOUSE

Last November at a webinar Bert warned of what he referred to as Three Peaks and a Domed House (below). He felt it was eerily similar to 1929.

Join Bert Dohmen and Gordon T Long as they assess the risk presently inherent in the US equity markets.

Bert Dohmen cautions that global government's are not yet finished their attempts to keep assets prices up and therefore investors must be 'on the alert'.

 

 

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Saturday
April 19th
2014

PART I

Baltic Freight, Shipping Credit and China

 

Bert Dohmen

 

 

SPECIAL GUEST : BERT DOHMEN , Publisher of The Wellington Letter and President Of Dohmen Capital

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BALTIC FREIGHT, SHIPPING CREDIT

& CHINA

Part 1

with Bert Dohmen & Gordon T Long

23 Minutes, 37 Slides

Bert Dohmen who recently authored "The Coming China Crisis" is now warning about Chinese shipping credit and what he sees in oversea freight rates. He believes there was a major dividing line that was crossed in June 2013 when overnight bank lending rates abruptly tripled. Though government actions quieted things down on the surface (at least temporarily), below the surface an avalanche of credit issues has ensued.

CHINA

Bert predicted much of what is currently occurring in his book and describes it as China hitting the "Great Wall of Communism". As an export led economy being capital investment driven it is now time for innovative entrepreneurs to take over, but they can't. 41% of Chinese GDP is primarily foreign capital investment which has slowed and new investment from investment savings is not occurring. "It has gone as far as it can go!" according to Bert Dohmen.

The basic reason is mal-investment due to corruption and the unregulated and massive shadow banking system which has taken hold of the Chinese economy. With $21T of loans outstanding the unregulated shadow banking system has funded half of these loans and is now facing escalating levels of default.

Most troubling is the level of corruption and the control that the government owned "SOB" exercise. Only recently has the scale of the corruption began to made visible outside of China.

BALTIC FREIGHT RATE & SHIPPING CREDIT

Chinese government economic numbers are manipulated and therefore shipping levels and their rates are the actual measure of the real global trade which investors need to study.

The Chinese private sector is in recession and has been for some time which can be seen in the 40% decline in one month in the Baltic Freight rates. This was made clear last month when 300 tons of Soybeans could not get a shipping letter of credit. Additionally, financial leverage being employed regarding the use of imported commodities as loan collateral became public.

The shipping credit 'canary' is very reminiscent of exactly what preceded the 2007 global financial collapse.

US ECONOMIC "DEMAND ENGINE" IS STALLED

China's export lead and investment driven economy has been powered by the US consumer. However US and European retail sales and real disposable income is sending an unambiguous message that slowing growth and even contraction lay ahead. US Money velocity has been steadily falling as US businesses continue to resist investment. This does not bode well for for an already tenuous problem in China.

Bert sees turbulent times directly ahead as the realities of slowing global trade come home to roost in China.

 

 

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Saturday
April 15th
2014

THE GOLDEN ERA OF LOW HANGING FRUIT

 

Charles Hugh Smith

 

 

Regular Co-Host: CHARLES HUGH SMITH , Author & Publisher of OfTwoMinds.com

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THE GOLDEN ERA of

LOW HANGING FRUIT

with Charles Hugh Smith & Gordon T Long

26 Minutes, 36 Slides

The US and China may have both passed their Golden Era's where the low hanging fruit of prosperity has been picked. Though very different situations with different challenges, both global industrial powerhouses exhibit some surprising similarities. Also, both face challenges and hurdles that may not be surmountable without great social readjustment.

USA - A Former Export Led and Now Consumption Driven Economy

The 1950s/60s in the US should not be considered as "normal"-- but rather as a one-off, extraordinary anomaly. The era was extremely unique. Unfortunately, many unsustainable assumptions became inculcated into the fabric of American culture based on false expectations. This has subsequently led to massive distortions as a result of futile fiscal and monetary attempts to sustain a society consuming more than it produces.

The distortions are now in plain view as the Wall Street financial engine and its financialization has completely disconnected 'Wall Street' from the realities of 'Main-Street America'.

CHINA - An Export Led but Investment Driven Economy

China's problems may be different but their unprecedented growth of credit is not.

When China's economic (in purchasing power parity (PPP) or nominal dollars) GDP was $500 billion, an expansion of $50 billion equated to 10% a year. Now that China's PPP gross domestic product is around $13 trillion, a 10% growth rate would require an expansion of $1.3 trillion--roughly the entire GDP of Spain or Canada.

Obviously, fast growth is easy when low-hanging fruit was abundant, but becomes progressively more difficult to maintain as the economy expands. This is especially true when you realize that China's GDP has been investment driven. The investment growth now required is no longer mathematically possible as is the rate of moving to a more consumption led growth. The Chinese people are savers, not the consumers that Americans are.

Chinese savers and investors have historically, instead of consuming, invested heavily in housing. Unfortunately, Chinese housing is showing major signs of cracking. Both Charles and Gordon see the Shadow Banking system as the commonality which is being used to sustain the imbalances and distortions - at least temporarily.

It is clear the Chinese and American economies are facing new era's where the low hanging fruit is gone and the 'heavy political lifting' lies ahead.

 

 

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Saturday
April 5th
2014

MARKET DISTORTIONS:

Buybacks & Dividends

 

Lance Roberts

 

Special Guest: LANCE ROBERTS Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation's biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.

OPEN ACCESS

MARKET DISTORTIONS : Buybacks & Dividends

with Lance Roberts & Gordon T Long

23 Minutes, 31 Slides

Corporate stock buybacks and dividends are great strategies to drive up stock prices and rewards shareholders, but there is a dangerous downside when this is primarily the result of temporary cheap money and 'manufactured earnings' from creative accounting magic.

Lance Roberts and Gordon T Long with the aid of 31 charts highlight why this is happening, how reported earnings are disconnected from the underlying economy and the risk to investors that has emerged as a consequence. Lance categorizes this period as the biggest 'reverse Robin Hood effect' in history with wealth over the last 5 years being transferred from the middle class to the upper wealthy class.

Stagnate sales growth in the top line is a direct result of low levels of corporate capital. The capital investments being made are primarily targeted at cost reductions in labor. With labor at historic lows, as a percentage of record profits, corporations may be ill prepared to maintain current levels of earnings, dividends and buybacks.

In this wide ranging conversation on the future of buybacks and dividends, the subjects explored include:

  • Productivity and exploding automation advances in the service sector,
  • A slowing rate of global aggregate demand growth,
  • Shrinking real disposable income levels,
  • Current corporate cash flow levels but falling EBITDA flows,
  • Off balance sheet borrowing for buybacks and dividends,
  • Asset to Debt levels showing the degree of growth in leverage to manufacture earnings.

Consumption doesn’t create a strong economy. Wealth doesn’t come from consumerism.

Wealth is created as a result of capital spending which has plummeted!

Both Lance and Gord believe strongly that more deflation is still ahead before broad based inflation takes hold. Money velocity continues to fall with wage inflation frozen and commodity price inflation showing only in pockets.

The global economic slowdown we are presently seeing will put pressure on corporate earnings and their ability to maintain current buyback and dividend levels.

Lance warns of risk and how important and little appreciated "Loss of Capital" and "Loss of Time" is to most individual investors.

 

NOTE: 24 hours after this show was taped, Trim Tabs announced that new stock buybacks in Q1 2014 fell to $134.4B from $214.4B in Q4 and were the lowest in 5 quarters.

"Corporate actions have turned less supportive of stock prices. The decline in the volume of buybacks is a cautionary sign, as buyback volume and the S&P 500 have a high positive correlation."

TrimTabs Chief Executive David Santschi

 

 

 

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

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Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

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Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.