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"Extend & Pretend"
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"SULTANS OF SWAP"
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ACT I
Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
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EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

"UR all PIGS from HELL

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Current Thesis Advisory:
"EXTEND & PRETEND"

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Published November 2009


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"INNOVATION"
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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

MAY 2011

2011 Thesis - Section III to be released May 31st, 2011to non-subscribers
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What Are Tipping Poinits?
Understanding Abstraction & Synthesis
Global-Macro in Images:  Understanding the Conclusions


AUDIO ARCHIVES
  GLOBAL INSIGHTS - MAY 2011
Featuring Gordon T. Long, Publisher and Editor of GordonTLong.com and Tipping Points Commentary and Ty Andros of TraderView.com and Author of Tedbits Newsletter.

Friday
May 27th
2011

WEEKLY WRAP

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

G-8 Chiefs Say Strengthening Economies to Prompt Focus Shift to Debt Cuts Bloomberg

 
Greece's Exit From the Euro is "On the Table" International Business Times  
Privatization plan finally passed ekathimerini  
The Greek Privatization Agency will be managed from Brussels, foreigners will supervise the key ministries GR Reporter  
Here's What's For Sale In The Great Greek Yard Sale Business Insider  
How Long Before Greek People Demand Default? CNBC  
Greece risks 'return to drachma' Telegraph  
It's ever more obvious, Greece must leave the euro Telegraph  
   
 
 

Wednesday
May 25th
2011

BOND OR
BOMB MARKET?

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

ECB's Balance Sheet Contains Massive Risks  Spiegel

 
Eurozone: Frankfurt’s Dilemma  Financial Times  
 

Monday
May 23rd
2011

POT POURRI

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

As Spain's Socialists Lose Local Elections, The Bond Vigilantes Stir  ZH

 
Italian CDS, 10 year Bond and Italian Stock Market this AM - Gordon T Long
What happens when Greece defaults   Telegraph   
Merkel's Party Suffers Worst Defeat Since 1959   Business Insider  
US-Iran Escalation: Iran Arrests 30 US Spies As It Builds Venezuelan  Missile Base; America Sends A Third Aircraft Carrier To Persian Gulf   ZH
Sultans of Swap - Part III - The Getaway!  Gordon T Long  
 

Friday
May 20th
2011

WEEKLY WRAP

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

Spain Vote Threatens to Uncover Debt  WSJ

 
Pain in Spain drives young people’s protest Financial Times  
What's Developing In Spain Right Now Business Insider  
Sultans of Swap - Part III - The Getaway! Gordon T Long  
 

TY GETS A LITTLE EXCITED ABOUT OBAMA'S POLICIES THIS MORNING

Wednesday
May 18th
2011

GREECE

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

A colour-coded guide to the Greek crisis   Financial Times - Alphaville

Kicking the Can to the End of the Road   John Mauldin
Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds   Michael Lewis  
Why I Don't Support Europe's Bailouts Timo Soini
 

Monday
May 16th
2011

POT POURRI

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn Charged With Attempted Rape Bloomberg

Dominique Strauss-Kahn accused of sex attack on maid - French socialist's career in question following dramatic arrest at JFK airport and furore over lifestyle   Guardian
May 2011: MONTHLY MARKET COMMENTARY   Long  
What If the U.S. Treasury Defaults?   WSJ (Druckenmiller)  
Why Growth is Dead Chris Martenson

Friday
May 13th
2011

NO SESSION
  

There is no session today ....

Wednesday
May 11th
2011

REAL ESTATE
UPDATE

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

Why I Don't Support Europe's Bailouts WSJ

 
Merkel Backs Draghi to head ECB Financial Times  
 

Monday
May 9th
2011

POT POURRI

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll Headline Number Looks Good, Beneath the Surface, Awful Mike Shedlock

 
TO TOP AUDIO ARCHIVES

Friday
May 6th
2011

WEEKLY WRAP

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

May 2011: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS   Gordon T Long- Audio Listeners Only Password: 0511begins

   

 

Wednesday
May 4th
2011

JOBS & PROFITS

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warns on interest rate rise

   
Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over PDF- Jeremy Grantham
May 2011: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gordon T Long
 
Margin Reduction Chart
 
Millions Set to Lose Unemployment Benefits.
 

Monday
May 2nd
2011

POT POURRI

 

 

 

 

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Supporting Materials

The Keynesian Growth Discount

 
The Fed's Dual Mandate: Lessons of the 1970s
 
Growth in Irish economy for 2011 cut by half in latest forecast
 
Most Americans say U.S. in recession despite data: poll
 
One Million Exhausted Jobless Benefits in Past Year
 

TO TOP AUDIO ARCHIVES
  GLOBAL INSIGHTS FOCUS - MAY 2011
Gordon interviews guests on global-macro economic topics to support his research themes and add value to his subscription service writings and thesis.

Thursday
May 26th
2011

JOHN RUBINO
DollarCollapse.com
  

w/John Rubino:  GEO-POLITICS OF THE US DOLLAR

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Thursday
May 19th
2011

JOHN RUBINO
DollarCollapse.com
  

w/John Rubino:  US DOLLAR OUTLOOK

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AUDIO
ARCHIVES

 

 

 

 

Go To Archives

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DISCLOSURE  Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 
   

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

 

 

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

  

   

   

     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

IRISH FINANCIAL CRISIS

UPDATE

Growth in economy for 2011 cut by half in latest forecast Irish Times

Ireland cuts growth forecast but questions remain Reuters

KEYNESIAN GROWTH DISCOUNT

The results of our three-year economic experiment are in..

For three long years, the U.S. has been undertaking an experiment in economic policy. Could record levels of government spending, waves of new regulation and political credit allocation, and unprecedented monetary stimulus re-ignite growth? The results have been rolling in, and they represent what increasingly looks like an historic mistake that deserves to be called the Keynesian growth discount.

SOURCE: The Keynesian Growth Discount WSJ

JOBLESS versus PRODUCTIVITY

SOURCE: Federal Reserve Study

Roughly 1 million people in the U.S. were unable to find work after exhausting their unemployment benefits over the past year, Labor Department data released Thursday suggest. Economists said the back-of-the-envelope calculation is yet another sign that the labor market remains weak.

GALLUP SURVEY - April 20-23, 2011

More than half of Americans say the U.S. economy is in a recession or a depression despite official data that show a moderate recovery, according to a poll released on Thursday.

SOURCE: Millions Set to Lose Unemployment Benefits.WSJ

 

 

SOURCE: May 2011: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gordon T Long

 

SOURCE: May 2011: MARKET ANALYTICS & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gordon T Long

HIGHLIGHTS - What You Need to Know

The market action since March 2009 is a bear market counter rally that is presently nearing a final end in a classic ending diagonal pattern. The Bear Market which started in 2000 will resume in full force by late spring of 2011.

We presently have the early beginnings of a 'rolling top'. We are seeing broad based weakening analytics and cascading warning signals. This behavior is typically seen near major tops.  This is all part of a final topping formation and a long term right shoulder technical construction pattern.

The ending diagonal or wedge patterns are extremely difficult to trade as trading reversals are significant and frequent. This adds to the confusion about market direction. This market behavior should be viewed as the market forces in the process of systemically changing balance. It is very typically of major reversals.

Highlight examples of weakening analytics and warning signals continue to be the following:

- Rising Termination Wedge pattern in the Industrials and S&P 500 since the July 2010 lows.
- Elliott Wave, Gann and Weekly/Monthly Full Stochastic confirm ending rally highs near at hand.
- Asian & World Market Weakness which is leading the US Market.

- Over 80% of the S&P 500 stocks are above the 50 DMA and over 90% above their 200 DMA.
- Investors Intelligence is once again at an extreme reading of 54.2%
- Consumer Sentiment is suddenly plunged from 77.5 in February to 67.8 in April as consumers feel the pinch of inflation in food and energy.
- We have a major divergence between the S&P 500 rise and the Smart Money Index falling. This signals a significant reversal lies ahead.
- We have divergence between the S&P 500 and the NYSE Overbought / Oversold indicator. A decay pattern suggests a termination of this condition in the May-June 2011 timeframe.
- The OEX Open Interest (PUT/CALLS) suggests a topping pattern to this cyclical counter rally which will require a period of time to unfold similar to that in 2007. Expect a rounded topping formation.
- We are presently experiencing Margin Debt falling off significantly. This is highly unusual and a strong precursor of "risk off' beginning to creep into the market. The last time this occurred to such a degree was in early 2000 prior to the dot.com bubble implosion and in early fall 2007 prior to the financial crisis hitting. Something is seriously amiss here.
- The gap between the 10 Year Note Yield and the Forward Earnings Yield is excessive by any historical measure. It must and will be closed with i) a significant rise in bond yields, ii) a drop in stock earnings, iii) and increase in stock prices, iv) a combination of all these.

CURRENT MACRO EXPECTATIONS

 

OUR CURRENT MACRO EXPECTATIONS FOR FINANCIAL EQUITY MARKETS
The following schematic best represents the US S&P 500 Stock Index

 

 

SOURCE: BLS Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payroll Headline Number Looks Good, Beneath the Surface, Awful Mish

Birth Death Model (as reported in January)

937 - 427 = 510 (Overstated by 46%)

Birth Death Model Revisions 2010 (as reported February)


Compare Revised Monthly Numbers

Difference Totals

47+23+16+44+24+36-10+24+18 = 242 (Further Adjustment of 26%)

Final = 937 - 427-242 = 268 (Overstated by 70%)

REFERENCE: Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn Charged With Attempted Rape Bloomberg

FACTS

IMF

FRENCH POLITICS

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: Dominique Strauss-Kahn accused of sex attack on maid Guardian

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: Why Growth is Dead Chris Martenson

REFERENCE: Tipping Points  

SOURCE: A colour-coded guide to the Greek crisis FT Alphaville

From Ralf Preusser and Sphia Salim at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, the analysts reckon the ‘muddling through’ options are most likely:

REFERENCE: Tipping Points 

SOURCE: Kicking the Can to the End of the Road John Mauldin

GREECE

IRELAND

KICK THE CAN TO THE END OF THE ROAD

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: Why I Don't Support Europe's Bailouts Timo Soini

When I had the honor of leading the True Finn Party to electoral victory in April, we made a solemn promise to oppose the bailouts of euro-zone member states. Europe is suffering from the economic gangrene of insolvency—both public and private. Unless we amputate that which cannot be saved, we risk poisoning the whole body.

To understand the real nature and purpose of the bailouts, we first have to understand who really benefits from them.

At the risk of being accused of populism, we'll begin with the obvious: It is not the little guy who benefits. He is being milked and lied to in order to keep the insolvent system running. He is paid less and taxed more to provide the money needed to keep this Ponzi scheme going. Meanwhile, a symbiosis has developed between politicians and banks: Our political leaders borrow ever more money to pay off the banks, which return the favor by lending ever more money back to our governments.

In a true market economy, bad choices get penalized. Instead of accepting losses on unsound investments—which would have led to the probable collapse of some banks—it was decided to transfer the losses to taxpayers via loans, guarantees and opaque constructs such as the European Financial Stability Fund.

The money did not go to help indebted economies. It flowed through the European Central Bank and recipient states to the coffers of big banks and investment funds.

Further contrary to the official wisdom, the recipient states did not want such "help," not this way. The natural option for them was to admit insolvency and let failed private lenders, wherever they were based, eat their losses.

That was not to be. Ireland was forced to take the money. The same happened to Portugal.

Why did the Brussels-Frankfurt extortion racket force these countries to accept the money along with "recovery" plans that would inevitably fail? Because they needed to please the tax-guzzling banks, which might otherwise refuse to turn up at the next Spanish, Belgian, Italian or even French bond auction.

Unfortunately for this financial and political cartel, their plan isn't working. Already under this scheme, Greece, Ireland and Portugal are ruined. They will never be able to save and grow fast enough to pay back the debts with which Brussels has saddled them in the name of saving them.

Setting up the European Stability Mechanism is no solution. It would institutionalize the system of wealth transfers from private citizens to compromised politicians and failed bankers, creating a huge moral hazard and destroying what remains of Europe's competitive banking landscape.

Fortunately, it is not too late to stop the rot. For the banks, we need honest, serious stress tests. Stop the current politically inspired farce. Instead, have parallel assessments done by regulators and independent groups including stakeholders and academics. Trust, but verify.

Insolvent banks and financial institutions must be shut down, purging insolvency from the system. We must restore the market principle of freedom to fail.

If some banks are recapitalized with taxpayer money, taxpayers should get ownership stakes in return, and the entire board should be kicked out. But before any such taxpayer participation can be contemplated, it is essential to first apply big haircuts to bondholders.

For sovereign debt, the freedom to fail is again key. Significant restructuring is needed for genuine recovery. Yes, markets will punish defaulting states, but they are also quick to forgive. Current plans are destroying the real economies of Europe through elevated taxes and transfers of wealth from ordinary families to the coffers of insolvent states and banks. A restructuring that left a country's debt burden at a manageable level and encouraged a return to growth-oriented policies could lead to a swift return to international debt markets.

This is not just about economics. People feel betrayed. In Ireland, the incoming parties to the new government promised to hold senior bondholders responsible, but under pressure they succumbed, leaving their voters with a sense of disenfranchisement. The elites in Brussels have said that Finland must honor its commitments to its European partners, but Brussels is silent on whether national politicians should honor their commitments to their own voters.

I was raised to know that genocidal war must never again be visited on our continent and I came to understand the values and principles that originally motivated the establishment of what became the European Union. This Europe, this vision, was one that offered the people of Finland and all of Europe the gift of peace founded on democracy, freedom and justice. This is a Europe worth having, so it is with great distress that I see this project being put in jeopardy by a political elite who would sacrifice the interests of Europe's ordinary people in order to protect certain corporate interests.

Mr. Soini is chairman of the True Finn Party in Finland.

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: US-Iran Escalation: Iran Arrests 30 US Spies As It Builds Venezuelan Missile Base; America Sends A Third Aircraft Carrier To Persian Gulf Zero Hedge

A week ago Die Welt reported that, in what may soon be a repeat of the Cuban missile crisis,

US arch-enemy Iran, following a secret agreement signed on October 19, 2010 of strategic cooperation, Venezuela has allowed Iran to commence construction of a missile base on Venezuelan soil.

The base, which will be located on the northernmost peninsula de Paraguana, 120 kilometers from the Colombian border, has recently been visited by a group of leading engineers from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard-owned construction company Khatam al-Anbia, is unofficially designed "to help develop an infrastructure to protect against air attack. Also planned is the construction of a command and control station, residential areas, watchtowers, and bunkers, in which warheads, missile fuel and other items can be stored.

In cooperation with its Venezuelan partners, Iran also intends to build missile silos at a depth of about 61 ft." The project appears to be funded by Iran: "Information gathered by Die Welt also suggests that on their visit to Venezuela, members of the Iranian delegation carried cash in their luggage for the project’s initial funding.

Western security circles suspect that this involved tens of millions of dollars siphoned off from Iran’s burgeoning oil profits." But most importantly is the discovery that while presumably defensive, Venezuela has told Iran, that it will be granted use of the base when completed: "According to the secret agreement between the two countries, Venezuela pledged to Iran that it will be able to strike its enemies from the joint missile base. Iran is attempting to boost its strategic threat to the U.S., similar to the Soviet strategy in Cuba during the 1960s." And while skeptics may say that the base located about 2,400 miles from DC has no chance in striking the US capitol, the reality is that the Iranian long-range ballistic missiles Shahab 5 and 6, are rumored to be a three-stage system, which has a range of anywhere between 3,000 and 10,000 miles. So with missile base supplies most likely to come by sea (Venezuela is a few hundred miles away from Cuba), is a recreation of the 1961 Cuban missile crisis the next big political diversion?

Location of the base per Die Welt:

A move that is sure to tip the scales to an outright confrontation even more, is the just announced by Al Arabiya arrest of 30 suspected US spies: a move which will certainly lead to executions, and the complete collapse of any diplomatic ties between the two countries.

Iran has arrested 30 people it said were spying for the United States.

“Due to the massive intelligence and counter-intelligence work by Iranian agents, a complex espionage and sabotage network linked to America’s spy organization was uncovered and dismantled,” an intelligence ministry statement read out Saturday on the television said.

“Elite agents of the intelligence ministry in their confrontation with the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) elements were able to arrest 30 America-linked spies through numerous intelligence and counter-intelligence operations,” it added.

According to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, the suspects had passed information to US officials at embassies and consulates in third countries, including Malaysia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

It said Iran had identified 42 US intelligence officers in such countries, saying: “They engage in collection of information regarding Iran’s nuclear, aerospace defense and bio-technology fields,” among other areas.

Spying in Iran usually carries the death penalty, often implemented without a full trial.

The announcement of the arrests comes two days after US President Barack Obama made a speech on the Middle East, reiterating Washington’s view that Tehran sponsors terrorism and is developing nuclear weapons, charges that Iran vehemently denies.

REFERENCE: Tipping Points  Audio - Global Insights 

 

ITALIAN CDS SPREADS HEADING HIGHER

ITALIAN 10 YEAR BOND SPREADS BREAKOUT - BOND SELLING ACCELERATES

 

ITALIAN STOCK MARKET BREAKS CRITICAL SUPPORT

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights 

SOURCE: Exclusive: China to clean up billions worth of local debt Reuters

CLEANING

REFERENCE: Tipping Points Audio - Global Insights