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Currency Wars

Euro Experiment

Sultans of Swap

Extend & Pretend

Preserve & Protect

Innovation

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"Extend & Pretend" Read the Series...

"SULTANS OF SWAP"
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ACT I
Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
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EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?

"UR all PIGS from HELL

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Current Thesis Advisory:
"EXTEND & PRETEND"

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Published November 2009


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"INNOVATION"
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INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
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PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

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2014 THESIS: GLOBALIZATION TRAP

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2015 ROADMAP TO CRISIS

A Fiduciary Failure

Published 01-17-15

Previous Annual Thesis Reports:

  1. 2000 - Extend & Pretend
  2. 2011 - Currency Wars – ‘Beggar-thy-Neighbor’
  3. 2012 - Financial Repression
  4. 2013 - Statism
  5. 2014 - Globalization Trap
  6. 2015 - Fiduciary Failure(see free sign-up below)

ABSTRACTION

SPRING BOARDING FROM LAST YEARS ‘GLOBALIZATION TRAP’

EXPANSIVE CREDIT CREATES EXCESS SUPPLY & DEMAND
WHICH EVENTUALLY REACHES AN EQUILIBRIUM
(If rate of expansion is not increased further)

  1. BRINGS FORWARD DEMAND, WHICH LEAVES A POTENTIAL DEMAND RATE VACUUM
  2. MEANWHILE INFLATION REDUCES REAL DISPOSABLE INCOME WHICH REDUCES RATE OF DEMAND GROWTH

SHRINKING AGGREGATE DEMAND THEN REDUCES COMMODITY PRICES WHICH LEADS TO COLLAPSING COLLATERAL VALUES SUPPORTING CREDIT EXPANSION


 

How Central Banks Unknowingly Create Their Achilles Heel: Deflation


THE OIL SHOCK IS ONLY YOUR FIRST SIGN!

Central Banks by creating 'Excessive' INFLATION actually sow their eventual destruction by creating DEFLATION

 

 

 

  1. 'EXCESS' INFLATION: This is considered Inflation creation when the business cycle needs to contract. I.e. 2% targets during a period of systemic deleveraging.
    1. ‘Excess Inflation’ occurs because a prime ‘unwritten’ directive of all central banks is to ensure its sovereign government debt can be serviced.
    2. ‘Excess inflation’ results from central banks being forced to push negative real interest rates too low (to protect debt holders) relative to real economic expansion and capital wealth creation.
  2. DEFLATION: Can more understandably be defined as "any increase in the purchasing power of nominal wages".
    1. The rise of software, robotics and global wage arbitrage is resulting in wages not rising along with prices. As a result, everyone who depends on earned income is getting poorer.
    2. For the actual real-world the result of central banks easing, money pumping and zero interest rates is actually Deflation of real wages over a longer period of time.
    3. Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) fuel over-capacity which leads to declining prices: deflation with a capital D.
    4. Central bank easing and zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) additionally fuels malinvestment which leads to overvalued collateral and an eventual collateral collapse as NPL (non-performing loans) debt cannot to "rolled" (i.e. no one no longer wants to accept the realistic financing risk).
  3. PURCHASING POWER: The store of Purchasing Power is true WEALTH which governments are effectively transferring from savers to the sovereign Treasury as issuer of new money & credit.

All the phantom collateral constructed with mal-invested free money for financiers will eventfully implode.

Here are the roadmaps to this inevitability.

PRIOR ROADMAPS - UPDATED

Marching Towards a Global Fiat Currency Crisis by the End of the Decade

Look for the next Crisis to be; 1-Global, 2 Politically Initiated and 3- Implode from the Unregulated $700T SWAPS / $72T Shadow Banking Complexity

 

Signup for your FREE copy of the GordonTLong.com 2015 THESIS PAPER

184 Pages of Charts & Facts on where the "Fiduciary Failure" crisis will lead in 2015-2016


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 PUBLIC RELEASE - FEBRUARY 2015

 

Gordon T Long    
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2013 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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