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IS THE KONDRATIEFF WINTER UPON US?

FIAT OBFUSCATION HIDES FALLING REAL GROWTH

Published 01-10-15

Many studies have shown that human behavior follows predictable cycles with various time frames. The generational Kondratieff Cycle is a well known one. But like a lot of long term generational cycles they have never occurred during Fiat regime era’s such as that which the global economy presently operates within.

A GOLD ANCHORED CYCLE
 

The Kondratieff Cycle has never occurred within an era of Fiat Currency. This is significant because the distortions caused by not being anchored to Sound Money obscure the previous recognizable cycle pattern.

During the ‘autumn’ of the Kondratieff Cycle we historically can expect to see DIS-Inflation with DEFLATION.  During this period debt still rises with economic growth also still evident.

As the cycle progresses into “winter” economic growth contracts, DEFLATION dominates and debt falls.

It is during the winter that mal-investment is corrected and price discovery establishes a basis where new investment can restart based on sound investment expectations.

Flatting Yield Curves, falling Interest Rates and Credit metrics all reliably follow to match the changing realties of the cycle.

A 'FLOATING FIAT' CYCLE

 

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION IS ACCELERATING TO

FIGHT THE POTENTIALLY DEFLATIONARY WINTER

NOTE

FIAT MISINFORMATION IS OBFUSCATING REAL SHRINKING GROWTH WHICH IS PART OF THE KONDRATIEFF WINTER

HOW GROWTH IS BEING OBFUSCATED

However this is based on a DEFLATOR OF 1.8%??

Below are the Global Inflation Patterns

How can the DEFLATOR BE 1.8% when these market are the following size of the global economy?

 

BUT IT IS EVEN WORSE THAN ABOVE - Debt is Being Used for Growth!!

... HERE ARE THE CURRENT FORECASTS - ON ELEVATED OBFUSCATIONED #'S NO LESS

SOMETHING DIFFERENT IS OCCURRING

THE FIRST "FIAT" KONDRATIEFF CYCLE

When we examine prior cycles we see that falling treasury yields have signaled the arrival of autumn.

 

 

During the ‘autumn’ of the Kondratieff Cycle we historically can expect to see DIS-Inflation with DEFLATION. 

During this period debt still rises with economic growth also still evident as we enter the “winter” period where sustained falling yields match the deleveraging and investment failures associated with the adjustments in mal-investment.

Today we are seeing debt continuing to rise dramatically, while yields have steadily fallen for over 30 years.

 

 

 


Bankruptcy filings are scarcer on the business page than job openings and new hiring!

 

How can this be with the net number of new firms falling to 70,000 over the last 6 years?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2013 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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