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OTHERS OF NOTE
IS THE KONDRATIEFF WINTER UPON US?
FIAT OBFUSCATION HIDES FALLING REAL GROWTH
Many studies have shown that human behavior follows predictable cycles with various time frames. The generational Kondratieff Cycle is a well known one. But like a lot of long term generational cycles they have never occurred during Fiat regime era’s such as that which the global economy presently operates within.
A GOLD ANCHORED CYCLE
The Kondratieff Cycle has never occurred within an era of Fiat Currency. This is significant because the distortions caused by not being anchored to Sound Money obscure the previous recognizable cycle pattern.
During the ‘autumn’ of the Kondratieff Cycle we historically can expect to see DIS-Inflation with DEFLATION. During this period debt still rises with economic growth also still evident.
As the cycle progresses into “winter” economic growth contracts, DEFLATION dominates and debt falls.
It is during the winter that mal-investment is corrected and price discovery establishes a basis where new investment can restart based on sound investment expectations.
Flatting Yield Curves, falling Interest Rates and Credit metrics all reliably follow to match the changing realties of the cycle.
A 'FLOATING FIAT' CYCLE
FINANCIAL REPRESSION IS ACCELERATING TO
FIGHT THE POTENTIALLY DEFLATIONARY WINTER
FIAT MISINFORMATION IS OBFUSCATING REAL SHRINKING GROWTH WHICH IS PART OF THE KONDRATIEFF WINTER
HOW GROWTH IS BEING OBFUSCATED
However this is based on a DEFLATOR OF 1.8%??
Below are the Global Inflation Patterns
How can the DEFLATOR BE 1.8% when these market are the following size of the global economy?
BUT IT IS EVEN WORSE THAN ABOVE - Debt is Being Used for Growth!!
- Empirical Proof of the Giant Con 01-07-15
- This is for You Steve Liesman…. Welcome to Economics 12-21-14
- Interest Rates Cannot Rise and Here’s Why… 10-03-14
... HERE ARE THE CURRENT FORECASTS - ON ELEVATED OBFUSCATIONED #'S NO LESS
THE FIRST "FIAT" KONDRATIEFF CYCLE
When we examine prior cycles we see that falling treasury yields have signaled the arrival of autumn.
During the ‘autumn’ of the Kondratieff Cycle we historically can expect to see DIS-Inflation with DEFLATION.
During this period debt still rises with economic growth also still evident as we enter the “winter” period where sustained falling yields match the deleveraging and investment failures associated with the adjustments in mal-investment.
Today we are seeing debt continuing to rise dramatically, while yields have steadily fallen for over 30 years.
Bankruptcy filings are scarcer on the business page than job openings and new hiring!
How can this be with the net number of new firms falling to 70,000 over the last 6 years?
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PUBLIC RELEASE - FEBRUARY 2015
Gordon T Long
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
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