Current Thesis Advisory:
2013 Thesis - RELEASED Jaunary 14th, 2013 to our Regular and Trial subscribers
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The Beginning is Near!
When water turns to ice, or vapor turns to water, we have what is referred to as a Phase Equilibria change. It can be slow or it can be instantaneous. Whichever occurs, a new and completely different state of reality then exists.
The markets are about to transition through such a Phase Equilibria. We have reached the End of the Beginning and a New Beginning is Near! Unfortunately the new beginning is the Beginning of the End of the Secular Bear Market Counter Rally. It isn't imminent, but it is near!
Once complete, the Bear Market that started in 2000 in real terms, will resume even in nominal terms. The End of the Beginning of the Secular Bear Market has arrived and now the truly ugly part of the bear market emerges.
OLD PHASE: Recovery & Hope
Since the financial crisis of 2008 the US and world have been in the "Recovery and Hope" phase. This phase normally starts with Triage to "stop the bleeding", then moves to Operations "to fix the problem", then finally to the Recovery or " convalescence " stage. All perfectly normal, if the diagnosis of the problem was correct, the operation successful and there are no complications during the recovery.
Unfortunately, through monetary malpractice the doctors screwed things up!!
Every metric of good health and success is flashing that a dead economic body is being kept artificially alive, except for one measure... the stock and bond markets. These measures, which are now the financially engineered creations of 33 Liberty Street and modern Goldman Sachs algo computers, are no longer a measure of the health of the economy, nor main street America. Unfortunately, the perception is that they are and that the omnipotent doctors at the Federal Reserve have things under control.
The stark reality of the gravity of the situation, the serious of the malpractice, is about to realized.
NEW PHASE: Reality & Fear
When Reality sets in, Hope Turns to Fear!
QUANTITATIVE EASING - Inceasingly exhausting its impact and showing diminishing returns:
It may seem like a rhetorical question but may the Fed be pushing a bit too aggressively at this stage? The chart below from Citi shows monetary policy (defined as the funds rate and the Fed's balance sheet) vs. a "market health" index comprised of economic factors, systemic risk metrics, and valuation metrics. Historically the two have tracked well, but not recently. The health index is firming, but policy is getting easier, not tighter. Is the Fed out of its depth here, or do they know something we don't?
The market reaction to QE4 was surprisingly lethargic. It is likely that the near term action is only the normal post election euphoria we normally see along with a weak Santa Claus rally.
The above chart is not a picture of a bull market! In a bull market, the opposite happens. Volume should be going up during the entire period, and it should be declining every time the market corrects. But we're getting exactly the opposite situation. People have started ignoring volume because bears have been talking about declining volume ever since 2010. But it is extremely important. Volume overall has been shrinking ever since the market's low of March 2009. Volume is a critically important momentum indicator that many are ignoring.
TRANSITION: The "Oh SH#&T Moment!"
TRANSITION - These are the kind of things you will here in the ABRUPT TRANSITION PHASE:
An "OH SH#&T MOMENT" is likely ahead if history is any guide.
We have endless "divergences" that must be closed if history and trend are any indication. The following is only a short list. It is the NUMBER and the DEGREE of divergence which creates the "Oh SH#&T Moment".
THE SET-UP FOR AN 'OH SH#&T' MOMENT - Is likely between Option Expiration in January and Quadruple Witch in March
APPLE and HY (High Yield) is telling us something, if we care to listen.
LONG WEDGES ARE GOOD INDICATORS FOR A PHASE CHANGE IN ATTITUDE
Rising SYSTEMIC FRAGILITY increases odds of “unexpected” breakdowns
MARKET EXAMPLE: 1987 Crash
I chose 1987 to the right, but almost every major "shock" I have witnessed, in watching the markets for decades, demonstrates a protracted rising wedge or ending diagonal characteristic.
BEGINNING IS NEAR: A RIGHT SHOULDER (Head & Shoulders)
A UNIQUE PATTERN - There is a lot of technical information in the following pattern.
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Gordon T Long
Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
© Copyright 2012 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or suggestions you receive from him.