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1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
7- Sovereign Debt Crisis
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar Weakness
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
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"BEST OF THE WEEK "

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

THE CORE TENETS OF THE AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

FRA Co-Founder, Gordon T. Long interviewed Robert Blumen, noted follower of the Austrian School of Economics, on the Core Tenets of the Austrian School and the Key Elements for investing in an Era of Financial Repression.

CORE TENETS

1. All economic understanding must be based on individual action
2. Subjective valuation drives prices
3. Marginal utility
4. Entrepreneurship
5. Time preference as the basis of interest and profit
6. The role of capital in production
7. Savings is required to create capital
8. Price Theory:  – prices determine costs, not the other way around
9. Money as an evolutionary solution the problem of barter
10. Precious metals as an evolutionary solution to the choice of the best money
11. The purchasing power of money as a price that balances money supply and money demand
12. Non-neutrality of money  (Cantillon effects)
13. The importance of money prices
14. Money is a good, and like any good, money does not have constant purchasing power.   Stable money does not mean stable prices.
15. Mises’ “critique of intervention”:  one thing leads to another
16. The “impossibility” of socialism (central planning)
17. Macro-Economics must be founded on micro economics
18. Macro-economics is based on Say’s law.
19. The rejection of the Keynesian revolution in macro.
20. Money and money substitutes (bank deposits, bank notes).
21. Banking with 100% gold reserves
22. Fractional reserve banking.  The Austrian critique of fractional reserve banking
23. Central banking.  The Austrian critique of central banking.

24. Austrian business cycle theory – the theory of unsustainable booms drive by fractional reserve banking and central banking.

a.    Inflation is not just rising prices, it distorts production as well.
b.    Distortions are unsustainable
c.     The “crack up bust” as one possible ending to the unsustainable boom

25. Deflation:

a.     Deflation has been demonized by the Keynesians.
b.    Natural slow deflation is the result of increasing production.
c.     Deflation is the correction process from inflation.
d.    Deflation is not a mouse trap that the economy gets stuck in and cannot escape.

26. An Austrian understanding of recessions and depressions through Say’s Law, entrepreneurship, and market price theory

 

KEY ELEMENTS IN AN ERA OF FINANCIAL REPRESSION

1. Entrepreneurs create wealth by employing scarce resources in production within the context of the price system.

    This requires real markets with real prices.

2. Central planning can not replace market prices.

3. Central bankers have it backwards.  Counter-cyclical policies create the business cycle.

4. Interest is not a number you can set to anything you like for “policy” reasons.  It is a price and it cannot be zero.

5. Attempting to keep interest rates at zero creates unsustainable distortions in the productive part of the economy. 

6. Something that is unsustainable must stop  - at some point.

7. In the end there are two choices – market prices or destruction of the monetary system

8. Investors think in terms of money, but money itself is unstable.

9. The path from fake prices to real prices will be difficult.

 

LINK HERE to the VIDEO

 

2012

2013

2014

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Nov. 8th, 2015 - Nov 14th, 2015      
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates 10-29-15 GLOBAL RISK SIGNALS 2
GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

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MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

   
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
STANDARD OF LIVING - SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
 
CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

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US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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