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NEWS DEVELOPMENT UPDATES:
FINANCIAL REPRESSION
FIDUCIARY FAILURE

WHAT WE ARE RESEARCHING

2015 THEMES
SUB-PRIME ECONOMY
PENSION POVERITY
WAR ON CASH
ECHO BOOM
PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX
FLOWS - LIQUIDITY, CREDIT & DEBT
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE - COMING NWO

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(A) Active, (C) Closed

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Q3 '15- Chinese Market Crash (A)
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OUR STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS (SII)

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NEGATIVE-ENERGY SECTOR
NEGATIVE-YEN
NEGATIVE-EURYEN
NEGATIVE-MONOLINES
POSITIVE-US DOLLAR

         

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1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
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8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar Weakness
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
35 - Corporate Bankruptcies
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
38- Government Backstop Insurance
39 - Oil Price Pressures
40 - Natural Physical Disaster

 

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HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS
   
Theme Groupings

We post throughout the day as we do our Investment Research for:

LONGWave - UnderTheLens - Macro Analytics

Scroll TWEETS for LATEST Analysis

 

 

"BEST OF THE WEEK "

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

CREDIT CONTRACTION     16 - Credit Contraction II

 

GLENCORE TIMELINE

 

 

 

HEADLINE DETAILS & LINKS

respectively. Elsewhere, following a strategic leak over the weekend by the Telegraph that Glencore ... On a company specific basis, Glencore (+6.0%) lead Europe higher after talk that the Singapore ... While there is pressure on Glencore’s balance sheet given low commodity prices, the stress doesn’t mean ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 10/05/2015 - 06:54 - 20 comments - 0 attachments

After its biggest daily crash in history on concerns Glencore's (or Glenron as it has been called ... current price), which said it sees real economic value in both of Glencore’s businesses - clearly, hence ... is that "commodity trading" has not lost value at all, but it is Glencore's commodity trading that ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/29/2015 - 09:02 - 38 comments - 0 attachments

Back in July, long before anyone was looking at Glencore (or Asia's largest commodity trader, ... a rhetorical question: Which will be first: Trafigura, Mercuria or Glencore — zerohedge ... we have our answer: for now at least, Glencore, which is now flailing and which Bloomberg reported ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/29/2015 - 20:43 - 135 comments - 0 attachments

best...   And a little context for the Glencore Bounce is required...   ... *  *  * Early weakness overnight in US futures was suddenly well bid as Glencore bounced (in ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/29/2015 - 16:06 - 62 comments - 0 attachments

Now that after long last the market has turned its attention not only to Glencore's mining ... report . But before we get into it, here is a reminder of Glencore's most recent disclosed financial ... breakdown ofGlencore's "fair value" breakdown in Level 1 through 3 assets, which amount to $4 billion in ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/28/2015 - 09:28 - 60 comments - 0 attachments

AsiaPac in the early going. Noble Group (asia&#39;s Glencore) is crashing, down 6.7% at the open. FX ... Glencore, just as we warned... If you like GLEN CDS, you will love NOBLE http://t.co/itRvATiSFf ... worstGlencore since Noble: worst Glencore since Lehman     …  well, he is a famed   ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/28/2015 - 21:20 - 74 comments - 0 attachments

Glencore is in total free-fall across all markets today. Most worrying for systemic risk concerns ... exposures . Forthe first time since 2009, Glencore CDS are being quoted with upfront pricing (something ... (or 14% upfront) to buy protection against a Glencore default (which implies - given standard ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/28/2015 - 11:30 - 27 comments - 0 attachments

carnage in massive commodity group Glencore began to materialize. Glencore CDS is now above 700bps (up ... Cargill will own Glencore Cargill will own Glencore before this is all done............. Ah ...Glencore. It's a private Company and doesn't need to play the Wall Street games. OK but I&#039;ll ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/28/2015 - 08:23 - 23 comments - 0 attachmen

Update: And there it is: GLENCORE DEBT INSURANCE COSTS SURGE TO RECORD HIGH; 5-YR ... Switzerland-based Glencore which just two weeks ago unveiled an unprecedented " doomsday " capital raising and ... commodity prices drop 5%, or even stay where they are, then Glencore's investment grade rating - the most ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/28/2015 - 16:20 - 161 comments - 0 attachments

previously , following a surge in its Credit Default Swaps, the "doomsday" scenario for Glencore is now on the table, because the market suddenly realized that Glencore's most valuable asset, not its mines, or ... "commodity Lehman" scenario for Glencore, which much more than a simple copper miner just happens to be one ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/24/2015 - 23:54 - 138 comments - 0 attachment

Two weeks ago, in a stunning development, Glencore officially folded the towel on not only its ... current recession in commodity prices. As a result, Glencore CEO Ivan Glasenberg unveiled a $10 billion ... blow up currently in progress, tumbled from a level in the mid-400s to 300 bps on hopes Glencore would ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/22/2015 - 11:35 - 34 comments - 0 attachments

on Monday when Glencore's CEO Ivan Glasenberg - formerly a perpetual optimist in all things commodity ... for commodity prices. Glencore's unprecedented action was in direct response to an S&P ... 2.0x target, Glencore's CDS tumbled by nearly a third in the past 4 days. And then, something bad ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/11/2015 - 09:53 - 29 comments - 0 attachments

the end" for Glencore (which just days earlier Bank of America calculated would need a $12 billion ... step for Glencore would indeed be a collateral waterfall-inducing downgrade, one which would have sent ... changed: S&P: GLENCORE TO BBB/NEGATIVE FROM BBB/STABLE As a reminder, Glencore is the ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/07/2015 - 09:37 - 21 comments - 0 attachments

Update: even the rating agencies finally noticed - S&P: GLENCORE TO BBB/NEGATIVE ... Levered) Way To Play The Chinese Credit-Commodity Crunch ?" We were referring to Glencore credit ... Chinese/commodity crash as a result of Glencore massive exposure to the price of copper, which in its own words ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 09/02/2015 - 14:14 - 23 comments - 0 attachments

One month ago we asked: Which will be first: Trafigura, Mercuria or Glencore — ... Glencore may have top-ticked the commodity supercycle with its 2011 IPO, but it's been downhill ever since ... three months, substantially underperforming its peers Rio Tinto (which Glencore once tried to acquire) ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 08/19/2015 - 17:54 - 71 comments - 0 attachments

of what we said 17 months ago in an article laying out Glencore CDS as the best way to trade the ... Glencore has a huge $55 billion of debt, is drastically sensitive to copper (and other commodity) prices, and its CDS remains just off record tights .     Is Glencore the most ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 08/19/2015 - 17:38 - 12 comments - 0 attachment

Glencore, which last year concluded its merger with miner Xstrata creating the world's fourth largest mining ... weak pricing environment ," the company said. Glencore chief Ivan Glasenberg For ... months,Glencore is not only the dominant coal exporter in the global coal market, but one which has ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 11/14/2014 - 22:25 - 182 comments - 0 attachments

none other than Goldman Sachs (and Glencore) have simply incredible waiting times for delivery of the ...   Pacorini Metals is owned by commodity group Glencore Xstrata and Metro International Trade ... the LME will not entirely shock that none other than Goldman Sachs (and Glencore) have simply ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 05/12/2014 - 11:43 - 46 comments - 0 attachment

In what could be the biggest merger news of the year, Bloomberg reports that Glencore and Xstrata could be close to a merger: GLENCORE SAID TO BE NEAR AGREEMENT TO COMBINE WITH XSTRATAGLENCORE, XSTRATA MAY ANNOUNCE DEAL AS SOON AS THIS WEEK COMBINED XSTRATA, GLENCORE MAY BE WORTH $82 ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 02/01/2012 - 23:41 - 48 comments - 0 attachments

little uglier for the biggest IPO of 2011. In just its second day of trading, Glencore has already broken its IPO price. Reuters reports: &quot;Shares in commodities trading group Glencore fell below ... speculators and Glencore would have been the world's largest market cap company already.. Zero ...

Story - Tyler Durden - 05/20/2011 - 12:26 - 36 comments - 0 attachment

 

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - Oct 4th, 2015 - Oct 10th, 2015      
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2
GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

TO TOP
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market Analytics
TECHNICALS & MARKET ANALYTICS

 

   
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

10-05-15 THESIS

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO ANALYTICS w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII
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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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