Investments of any kind involve risk.  Please read our complete risk disclaimer and terms of use below by clicking HERE      
SUBSCRIBER ACCESS - THESIS 2014

Bookmark and Share      

HOME   || Kryptoszene Zeigt, Wie Krypto Wallet Erstellen   || A/V Presentations || Trigger$ ||   Commentary   ||  Understanding Abstraction  ||    Meet Gordon   ||  Subscription Services || SUBSCRIBER ACCESS

JOHN RUBINO'S
LATEST BOOK
Read More
CHARLES HUGH SMITH'S
LATEST BOOK

Read More

NEW SERIES RELEASE

 

"DOW 20,000 "
Read the Series...

 

HELD OVER

Currency Wars

Euro Experiment

Sultans of Swap

Extend & Pretend

Preserve & Protect

Innovation

Showings Below
  

 

 

 


Bookmark and Share


 

"PRESERVE & PROTE

CT"
Read the series...

archives open
in a new window


PRESERVE & PROTECT:  The Jaws of Death

 

 

Weekend June 13th, 2015

Follow Our Updates

on TWITTER

https://twitter.com/GordonTLong

AND FOR EVEN MORE TWITTER COVERAGE

https://twitter.com/sobata416

 

 

 

REPLAY

         
ARCHIVES 
MAY
S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

Today's Tipping Points Page
Complete Archives

KEY TO TIPPING POINTS

1- Bond Bubble
2 - Risk Reversal
3 - Geo-Political Event
4 - China Hard Landing
5 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
6- EU Banking Crisis
 
7- Sovereign Debt Crisis
8 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Stock Market Valuations
11 - Global Governance Failure
12 - Chronic Global Fiscal ImBalances
13 - Growing Social Unrest
14 - Residential Real Estate - Phase II
15 - Commercial Real Estate
16 - Credit Contraction II
17- State & Local Government
18 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
19 - US Reserve Currency
 
20 - US Dollar Weakness
21 - Financial Crisis Programs Expiration
22 - US Banking Crisis II
23 - China - Japan Regional Conflict
24 - Corruption
25 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
26 - Food Price Pressures
27 - Global Output Gap
28 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
29 - Central & Eastern Europe
 
30 - Terrorist Event
31 - Pandemic / Epidemic
32 - Rising Inflation Pressures & Interest Pressures
33 - Resource Shortage
34 - Cyber Attack or Complexity Failure
35 - Corporate Bankruptcies
36 - Iran Nuclear Threat
37- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
38- Government Backstop Insurance
39 - Oil Price Pressures
40 - Natural Physical Disaster

 

Reading the right books?
No Time?

>> Click to Browse <<

We have analyzed & included
these in our latest research papers Macro videos!

OUR MACRO ANALYTIC

CO-HOSTS

John Rubino's Just Released Book

Charles Hugh Smith's Latest Books

 

 

Our Macro Watch Partner

Richard Duncan Latest Books

MACRO ANALYTIC

GUESTS

F William Engdahl

 

 

 

 

 

OTHERS OF NOTE


Book Review- Five Thumbs Up
for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!

 

 

 

pdf Download

Have your own site? Offer free content to your visitors with TRIGGER$ Public Edition!

Sell TRIGGER$ from your site and grow a monthly recurring income!

Contact [email protected] for more information - (free ad space for participating affiliates).


HOTTEST TIPPING POINTS
   
Theme Groupings

We post throughout the day as we do our Investment Research for:

LONGWave - UnderTheLens - Macro

Scroll TWEETS for LATEST Analysis

 

 

"BEST OF THE WEEK "

MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES TODAY

 

   

 

     

RETAIL - "Double" Seasonal Adjustments

The Curious Case Of "Strong" Retail Sales: Is The US Already Applying "Double" Seasonal Adjustments 06-12-15 ZH

There was some confusion why following yesterday's stronger than expected retail sales, which broke a 4-month series of disappointing data and which according to most economists were good enough to bring forward the Fed's first rate hike in a trader generation, bond yields tumbled.

Well, in the aftermath of the whole "double seasonal-adjustment" travesty, in which even the BEA admitted any bad economic data (read Q1 GDP) will be "massaged" enough until it becomes good under the "scientific" pretext of "residual seasonality", and following the suggestion of Dynamika Capital's Alexander Giryavets, we decided to take a look at not seasonally adjusted retail sales.

We found something interesting.

The thing about retail sales is that while they are supposed to smooth out month-to-month changes in any given data series, they should be virtually identical on a annual, year-over-year basis. After all the same "seasonal" adjustment that was applicable this May, was applicable last May, the May before it, and so on, unless of course, there was some massive, climatic or otherwise shift to the underlying reality.

To the best of our knowledge there wasn't.

And indeed, when looking at the annual change in headline retail sales data we find that, as expected, the seasonally-adjusted (blue) and unadjusted (red)retail sales series are almost identical...

... but not quite.

If one zooms in on the most recent data, one finds something surprising: a substantial rebound in SA retail sales, which according to the Dept. of Commerce rose 2.7% while unadjusted retail sales rose by just 1.0%,the worst montly print in over two years and hardly inspiring confidence that the economy is strong enough for the Fed to engage in a rate hike.

To isolate the problem we decided to look at only the annual (YoY) change in May data. The chart below shows the surprising finding: while every year for the past 4 years the Unadjusted May data was equal to or stronger than the Adjusted retail sales print, in May of 2015 this was reversed, and quite substantially.

To show just how much of an outlier May 2015 was compared to May in prior years, here is the seasonal "adjustment ratio" for the month of May for every year from 2008 to 2015, by which we define the ratio of "seasonally adjusted" to "unadjusted" retail sales. Spotting the outlier should be easy enough.

So, our question: while we know that the US Department of Truth, err. Commerce, will soon adjust GDP data for all weak quarters higher just so the narrative of a rebounding economy isn't lost when one looks at the actual fact, has this "residual seasonality" adjustment already been applied to retail sales? Because we fail to understand just why the seasonal adjustment to May retail data should be as profound as shown above.

Source: (Double?) Seasonally-Adjusted and Unadjusted retail sales

06-13-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 

RETAIL - Why McDonalds Is Ending Monthly Sales Reports

Why McDonalds Is Ending Monthly Sales Reports: Global Sales Drop For 12 Consecutive Months 06-08-15 ZH

Ten days ago we reported with much amusement that the "turnaround story" that is McDonalds has decided to pull the oldest trick in the collapsing business book, and would stop reporting its monthly comparable sales starting with the month of June.

Moments ago MCD reported its May comp store sales which confirmed what we cynically noted is the reason for the data halt, namely that no matter what it does, MCD simply can not "turnaround" its foundering business, and after a drop of -0.6% in April, May global comp sales dropped once again, this time by -0.3%. This was the 12th consecutive month of global comparable store declines. Next month will be the 13th. There won't be a 14th.

The good news for Europe is that with a jump of 2.3% in May comp store sales, the European recovery is clearly taking hold and the tens of millions of unemployed youths can finally afford a 99 cent meal.

But perhaps the biggest irony is that the drop was driven not by Europe or Asia, where one would expect the strong dollar to be wreaking havoc on US-denominated sales, but in the US, where same store sales dropped -2.2%, more than the -1.7% expected.

We wonder if the decline in USD-denominated US sales will also gain be blamed on the strength of the US currency?

Finally, as we have said all along, it really is time for MCD's new boss Steve Easterbrook to start wearing many more pieces of flair or he will join his predecessor Don Thompson in "retiring" prematurely any month now.

 

06-13-15

SII

US IND

CONS

 
MOST CRITICAL TIPPING POINT ARTICLES THIS WEEK - June 7th, 2015 - June 13th, 2015      
BOND BUBBLE     1
RISK REVERSAL - WOULD BE MARKED BY: Slowing Momentum, Weakening Earnings, Falling Estimates     2

STUDIES - CENTRAL BANKING RISK

They Mave Have Lost Control

     
06-09-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-10-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-11-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

06-09-15 STUDIES

1- Bond Bubble

2 - Risk Reversal

 

GEO-POLITICAL EVENT     3
CHINA BUBBLE     4
JAPAN - DEBT DEFLATION     5

EU BANKING CRISIS

   

6

TO TOP
MACRO News Items of Importance - This Week

GLOBAL MACRO REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     

US ECONOMIC REPORTS & ANALYSIS

     
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
     
Market
TECHNICALS & MARKET

 

   
COMMODITY CORNER - AGRI-COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
SECURITY-SURVEILANCE COMPLEX   PORTFOLIO  
     
THESIS - Mondays Posts on Financial Repression & Posts on Thursday as Key Updates Occur
2015 - FIDUCIARY FAILURE 2015 THESIS 2015
2014 - GLOBALIZATION TRAP 2014

2013 - STATISM

2013-1H

2013-2H

2012 - FINANCIAL REPRESSION

2012

2013

2014

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

06-08-15  

 

FINANCIAL REPRESSION

 

2011 - BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR -- CURRENCY WARS

2011

2012

2013

2014

2010 - EXTEND & PRETEND

   
THEMES - Normally a Thursday Themes Post & a Friday Flows Post
I - POLITICAL
     
CENTRAL PLANNING - SHIFTING ECONOMIC POWER - STATISM   THEME  

- - CORRUPTION & MALFEASANCE - MORAL DECAY - DESPERATION, SHORTAGES.

  THEME
- - SECURITY-SURVEILLANCE COMPLEX - STATISM M THEME  
- - CATALYSTS - FEAR (POLITICALLY) & GREED (FINANCIALLY) G THEME  
II-ECONOMIC
     
GLOBAL RISK      
- GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMBALANCE - FRAGILITY, COMPLEXITY & INSTABILITY G THEME  
- - SOCIAL UNREST - INEQUALITY & A BROKEN SOCIAL CONTRACT US THEME  
- - ECHO BOOM - PERIPHERAL PROBLEM M THEME  
- -GLOBAL GROWTH & JOBS CRISIS      
- - - PRODUCTIVITY PARADOX - NATURE OF WORK   THEME

MACRO w/ CHS

- - - STANDARD OF LIVING - EMPLOYMENT CRISIS, SUB-PRIME ECONOMY US THEME
MACRO w/ CHS
III-FINANCIAL
     
FLOWS -FRIDAY FLOWS

MATA

RISK ON-OFF

THEME
06-12-15

THEMES

FLOWS

FLOWS

CRACKUP BOOM - ASSET BUBBLE   THEME  
SHADOW BANKING - LIQUIDITY / CREDIT ENGINE M THEME  
GENERAL INTEREST

 

   
STRATEGIC INVESTMENT INSIGHTS - Weekend Coverage

 

RETAIL - CRE

 

 

  SII

 

US DOLLAR

 

 

  SII

 

YEN WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII

 

OIL WEAKNESS

 

 

  SII
TO TOP
 

 

Read More - OUR RESEARCH - Articles Below


Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained
Click on image to enlarge
   
TO TOP

 

 YOUR SOURCE FOR THE LATEST
GLOBAL MACRO ANALYTIC

THINKING & RESEARCH

 

 
 
 
 
   TO TOP
  HOME    ||    Audio   ||  Commentary    ||   Understanding Abstraction   ||   Meet Gordon   ||   Subscriptions  
TERMS OF USE

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

THE CONTENT OF ALL MATERIALS:  SLIDE PRESENTATION AND THEIR ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSIONS, VIDEO PRESENTATIONS, NARRATED SLIDE PRESENTATIONS AND WEBZINES (hereinafter "The Media") ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.

The Media is not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing  can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. The Media is not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Terms of Use Statement is a condition of access to it.  Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility. 

THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

Gordon emperically recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, he  encourages you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.
  

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

Information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.

Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are discussed or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

FAIR USE NOTICE  This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

 

If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.   

COPYRIGHT  © Copyright 2010-2011 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.