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Reading the right books?
We have analyzed & included
"The moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point"
The tipping point is the critical point in an evolving situation that leads to a new and irreversible development. The term is said to have originated in the field of epidemiology when an infectious disease reaches a point beyond any local ability to control it from spreading more widely. A tipping point is often considered to be a turning point. The term is now used in many fields. Journalists apply it to social phenomena, demographic data, and almost any change that is likely to lead to additional consequences. Marketers see it as a threshold that, once reached, will result in additional sales. In some usage, a tipping point is simply an addition or increment that in itself might not seem extraordinary but that unexpectedly is just the amount of additional change that will lead to a big effect. In the butterfly effect of chaos theory , for example, the small flap of the butterfly's wings that in time leads to unexpected and unpredictable results could be considered a tipping point. However, more often, the effects of reaching a tipping point are more immediately evident. A tipping point may simply occur because a critical mass has been reached.
The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference is a book by Malcolm Gladwell, first published by Little Brown in 2000. Gladwell defines a tipping point as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point." The book seeks to explain and describe the "mysterious" sociological changes that mark everyday life. As Gladwell states, "Ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do."
Gladwell describes the "three rules of epidemics" (or the three "agents of change") in the tipping points of epidemics.
PROCESS OF ABSTRACTION
SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS
FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
RICE: Abdolreza Abbassian, at the FAO in Rome, says the price of rice, one of the two most critical staples for global food security, remains below the peaks of 2007-08, providing breathing space for 3bn people in poor countries. Rice prices hit $1,050 a tonne in May 2008, but now trade at about $550 a tonne.
WHEAT: The cost of wheat, the other staple critical for global food security, is rising, but has not yet surpassed the highs of 2007-08. US wheat prices peaked at about $450 a tonne in early 2008. They are now trading just under $300 a tonne.
The surge in the FAO food index is principally on the back of rising costs for corn, sugar, vegetable oil and meat, which are less important than rice and wheat for food-insecure countries such as Ethiopia, Bangladesh and Haiti. At the same time, local prices in poor countries have been subdued by good harvests in Africa and Asia.
US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATES
PIMCO'S NEW NORMAL: According to PIMCO, the coiners of the term, the new normal is also explained as an environment wherein “the snapshot for ‘consensus expectations’ has shifted: from traditional bell-shaped curves – with a high likelihood mean and thin tails (indicating most economists have similar expectations) – to a much flatter distribution of outcomes with fatter tails (where opinion is divided and expectations vary considerably).” That is to say, the distribution of forecasts has become more uniform (as per Exhibit 1).
January 19's S&P 500 decline of just over 1% was the first of its kind since before Thanksgiving. The index held out just long enough to eclipse the 36-trading day period without a 1% decline back in March and April of last year. The 37-day streak that just came to an end was the longest since May 2007. But 37 trading days without a 1% decline is nothing compared to the 94 trading days seen back in 2006. While volatility has dropped quite a bit over the past few months, it's still nothing compared to the quiet trading seen for multiple years in the middle of the last decade.
The "Dirty Dozen"
Volatility has spiked:
And the market is touching its 10-day moving average for the first time in ages.
MUNI BOND OUTFLOWS
NYT: State Bankruptcy Option Is Sought, Quietly.
Basically at the behest of Newt Gingrich, Senators and Congressmen in DC are looking for a new law that would allow states to declare bankruptcy and restructure their debts including to (actually especially to) unionized public workers.