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"Extend & Pretend" Read the Series...



Stage 1 Comes to an End!
A Matter of National Security
A Guide to the Road Ahead 
Confirming the Flash Crash Omen
It's Either RICO Act or Control Fraud
Shifting Risk to the Innocent
Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!
Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?
Gaming the US Tax Payer
Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up
Hitting the Maturity Wall
An Accounting Driven
Market Recovery

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"EURO EXPERIMENT"
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"UR all PIGS from HELL

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"INNOVATION"
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"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
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POSTS: Weekend, 01-08-2011
Last update:  01/09/2011 4:04 PM Postings begin at 5:30am EST
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TIPPING POINTS

Research Process

Process of Abstraction

1 - Sovereign Debt & Credit Crisis
2 - EU Banking Crisis
3 - Bond Bubble
4 - State & Local Government
5 - Risk Reversal
 
6 - Residential Real Estate -
Phase II
7 - Commercial Real Estate
8 - Central & Eastern Europe
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Banking Crisis II
11 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
12 - North & South Korea
 
13 - Public Policy MIscues
14 - Rising Interest Pressures
15 - Food Price Pressures
16 -US Stock Market Valuations
17- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
18 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
19 -Cedit Contraction II
 
20 - US Reserve Currency
21 - US Fiscal, Trade and Account ImBalances
22 - China Bubble
23- Government Backstop Insurance
24 - Corporate Bankruptcies
25 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
26 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
27 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
28 - US Dollar Weakness
29 -Global Output Gap
30 - Oil Price Pressures
31 -Natural Disaster
32 - Pandemic
33 - Iran Nuclear Threat
34 - Crisis Programs Expiration
35 - Terrorist Event

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Italy has a cool 2 Trillion EUR in debt and has much worse debt statistics than Spain. Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio is 118% (2009). Greece got in trouble at 116%. Italy's deficit is smaller and has a high savings ratio. However, nobody focuses on that as Spain is in the limelight with a debt-to-GDP ratio under 60%. Should austerity measures result in a nominal GDP contraction in Italy, its debt stats will worsen very rapidly.

Italy is the elephant in the room not Spain.

 

 

 

We’ve taken many longer term looks at the markets (See, for example, this, this, this or this) but the following chart from UBS Technical Analyst Peter Lee really tickled my fancy

Source:
2011 Technical Market Outlook
Peter Lee – Chief Technical Strategist
Wealth Management Research
December 201

 

With more and more money pouring into emerging markets, pushing up the value of domestic currencies, more and more countries are trying to slow down the influx through taxes and regulations. The Institute of International Finance, a trade association of global banks, put together a handy scorecard of what’s occurring internationally. The group list a) the measures taken; b) “quantitative indicators” of the pressure on various currencies and c) what’s likely to happen next.

The three indicators are

1) A currency’s current deviation, in percentage terms, from the 15-year average real effective exchange rate.

2) The change in value of a particular currency against the U.S. dollar over the past three months.

3) The current difference, in basis points, in key policy rates with the U.S. Fed funds rate (For instance, Brazil’s Selic rate is currently 10.75% vs. Fed funds at 0.25%, which produces a difference of 1,050bp).

You can’t tell the players without a scorecard:  See the pdf that will appear in an upcoming edition of the IIF’s “Capital Markets Monitor.”