Commentary   ||   Reader Roadmap    ||   Swap Sentinel   ||   Today's Tipping Points

TIPPING POINTS

 
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Bookstore

Bookmark and Share 

 

"Extend & Pretend" Read the Series...



Stage 1 Comes to an End!
A Matter of National Security
A Guide to the Road Ahead 
Confirming the Flash Crash Omen
It's Either RICO Act or Control Fraud
Shifting Risk to the Innocent
Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!
Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?
Gaming the US Tax Payer
Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up
Hitting the Maturity Wall
An Accounting Driven
Market Recovery

For upcoming show times...
See
Reader Roadmap

"SULTANS OF SWAP"
Read the series...

 

"EURO EXPERIMENT"
Read the series...

"UR all PIGS from HELL

For upcoming show times...
See
Reader Roadmap

FREE COPY...

Current Thesis Advisory:
"EXTEND & PRETEND"

PDF, 62 pages
Published November 2009


Click to view Index

CONTACT US
Use Promo Code: INTRODUCTION
in the Email Subject


Bookmark and Share

"INNOVATION"
Read the series...

For upcoming show times...
See
Reader Roadmap

 

"PRESERVE & PROTECT"
Read the series...

For upcoming show times...
See
Reader Roadmap

 

 


POSTS: New Years Weekend , 01-01-2010
Last update:  01/03/2011 4:10 AM Postings begin at 5:30am EST
and updated throughout the day
Latest Research Publications RSS 
 
External Articles Articles open in new window
ARTICLE Mouse
Over
Source Tipping
Point
   
EU SOVERIGN DEBT CRISIS     1
Simon Johnson 1
Northern Trust 1
Mish 1
       
GREECE     1
Bloomberg 1
GERMANY     1
Reuters 1
JAPAN     1
Barron's 1
       
  NY Times 2
Bespoke 4
Saft 5
  FT 7
Reuters 8
     
     
Foreign Affairs 13
  Forbes 13
     
     
  China Daily 22
  Shanghai Daily 22
  Shanghai Daily 22
  Bloomberg 22
  Barr 23
  Yahoo Finance 24
  BI 24
  CNN 30
       
Other Tipping Point Categories not listed above
CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES      
Economist Ties Gold Bet to Bernanke Resignation   CNBC  
2011 OUTLOOKS      
A bearish perspective on the market in 2011   Economist  
SocGen on 2011   Bloomberg  
Keep Ahead of the Herd in 2011   EW  
Partying like it is 1999 again   The Leaf Chronicle  
Before You Uncork The Champagne: David Rosenberg's 10 Themes For 2011   Rosenberg  
7 Predictions For The Year 2011 From 1931 Visionaries   BI  
CURRENCY WARS      
Venezuela Devalues Bolivar For Imported `Essential Goods,' Unifying Rates   Bloomberg  
More than 82 tril. yen in banknotes kept at households, businesses   AP  
Princeton’s Kenen: No Plausible Alternative to Dollar Now   WSJ  
Canadian Dollar Strengthens   Bloomberg  
Currency to soar with commodities boom   Couriermail  
COMMODITY CORNER      
Corn, Soybeans Rise, Cap Best Second-Half Rally in Five Decades   Bloomberg  
Gold Poised for Tenth Annual Gain as Investors Seek Protection   Bloomberg  
A “Long” Car Ride with a Gold Bug   Black Swan  
Everything Gold Is New Again   Newsweek  
MARKET WARNINGS      
Rising Bond Yields Spark Concerns for Stock Market   CNBC  
Bloom comes off international stock funds   MW  
2010 IN REVIEW      
Happy New Year! Here Are The Numbers On What Turned Out To Be A Very Good 2010   BI  
10 years that shook America's finances   Bank Rate  
GENERAL INTEREST      
If We Close Our Eyes, The Monster Will Go Away Charles Hugh Smith  
Ultimate Cost of 0% Money   Jim Willie  
JP Morgan Chase sued over Petters Ponzi scheme   Yahoo Finance  
     
Featured Audio / Video
  Bloomberg Video  
  Real News  
  Hunt - Stansberry  
  Hunt - Stansberry  
     
Briefs
     
     
READER ROADMAP & GUIDE:   2010 Tipping Points and commentary


 
Tipping Points Life Cycle - Explained

Click on image to enlarge

   

Quote Of The Week

“An optimist stays up until midnight to see the new year in. A pessimist stays up to make sure the old year leaves.” – Bill Vaugh

  BUY ANY BOOK
Get a 2-Month Subscription to
...

Monthly Market Commentary
Promotion Details   

 

 

 

 

FAIR USE NOTICE

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

COPYRIGHT & DISCLAIMER

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

EMAIL US

  

Fractal Research  ||  Secrets of the Pyramids  ||  Φ Research  ||  Platonic Solids   ||  6T Development Site

 

  
         

ARCHIVES 

DECEMBER
S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  
  
Complete Archives
 
  
TIPPING POINTS
1 - Sovereign Debt & Credit Crisis
2 - EU Banking Crisis
3 - Bond Bubble
4 - State & Local Government
5 - Risk Reversal
 
6 - Residential Real Estate -
Phase II
7 - Commercial Real Estate
8 - Central & Eastern Europe
9 - Chronic Unemployment
10 - US Banking Crisis II
11 - Pension - Entitlement Crisis
12 - North & South Korea
 
13 - Public Policy MIscues
14 - Rising Interest Pressures
15 - Food Price Pressures
16 -US Stock Market Valuations
17- Finance & Insurance Balance Sheet Write-Offs
18 - Japan Debt Deflation Spiral
19 -Cedit Contraction II
 
20 - US Reserve Currency
21 - US Fiscal, Trade and Account ImBalances
22 - China Bubble
23- Government Backstop Insurance
24 - Corporate Bankruptcies
25 - Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales
26 - Public Sentiment & Confidence
27 - Shrinking Revenue Growth Rate
28 - US Dollar Weakness
29 -Global Output Gap
30 - Oil Price Pressures
31 -Natural Disaster
32 - Pandemic
33 - Iran Nuclear Threat
34 - Crisis Programs Expiration
35 - Terrorist Event

Reading the right books?
No TIme?

We have analyzed & included
these in our latest research papers!


Accepting Pre-orders

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!

 

 

 

The extra yield investors demand to hold Greek 10-year government bonds instead of German bunds, Europe's benchmark government securities, surged to a euro-era record of 973 basis points on May 7, and was at 953 basis points today. It started the year at 239 basis points. The difference in yield, or spread, between German bonds and 10-year debt from Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy also reached euro-era records.

Sovereign Debt Spread to Germany
Country Jan 01 May 07 Dec 30
Belgium 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
France
0.2% 0.4% 0.4%
Greece 2.4% 9.7% 9.5%
Ireland 1.4% 3.1% 6.0%
Italy 0.3% 1.5% 1.8%
Portugal 0.7% 3.5% 3.6%
Spain 0.6% 1.6% 2.5%

 

 

 

The more we cling to our deranged dependence on:

1- systemic fraud,

2- exponential expansion of credit,

3- corporate cartels/political Plutocracy,

4- Central State largesse,

5- corporate-media propaganda and

6- a financial system that breathes misrepresentation of risk,

.... the stronger the Monster becomes.

Fed chairman Bernanke, Treasury Secretary Geitner, President Obama and Congress are all ordering the band to play spritely tunes of rising holiday spending, endless borrowing, and the carefully crafted propaganda of Fed manipulation, statistical legerdemain and happy-talk about how the Monster will be gone when we open our eyes.

If we insist--childlike, petulant, resentful of reality--on keeping our eyes closed in 2011, then we are dooming ourselves to facing a much fiercer and more powerful Monster in 2012. We can't escape the confrontation, and the longer we put it off, hiding under our bed, wishing it all away, the more likely our panicky collapse when reality forces our eyes open.

The euro zone needs to, and eventually will, take three steps:

Step 1: Agree on greater fiscal integration for a core set of countries. This will not be full fiscal union but some greater sharing of responsibilities for each other’s debts. There is much room for ambiguity in government accounting and great guile at the top of the European political elite, so do not expect something completely clear to emerge.

But Germany will end up underwriting more liabilities for the European core; its opposition Social Democratic Party and the Greens are pushing Chancellor Angela Merkel in this direction, calling her “un-European.”

Step 2: For the core countries, the European Central Bank will receive greater authority to buy up government bonds as needed. Speculators in these securities will be badly burned as necessary. The wild card is whether the Bundesbank president, Axel Weber, will get to take over the central bank in fall 2011 – as expected and as apparently required by Ms. Merkel.

Mr. Weber has been vociferously opposed to exactly this bond-buying course of action. So the immovable Mr. Weber will meet the unstoppable logic of economic events. Good luck, Mr. Weber.

Step 3: One or more weaker countries will drop out of the euro zone, probably becoming rather like Montenegro, which uses the euro as its currency but does not have access to the European Central Bank-run credit system. Greece is probably the flashpoint; when it misses a payment on government debt, why should the central bank continue to accept Greek banks’ bonds, backed at that point by a sovereign entity in default?

The maelstrom will probably sweep aside Portugal and perhaps even Ireland; Spain and Italy will be threatened.

The unfortunate truth is that despite its supposed return to pre-eminence and the renewed swagger of its senior officials, the I.M.F. remains weak and of limited value. It is an effective lender to small European countries under intense pressure — Latvia, Iceland, Greece and so on. But the I.M.F. does not have the resources or the legitimacy to save the bigger countries.

Our leading bankers looted the state, plunged the world into deep recession and cost the United States eight million jobs. Now many of them stand by with sharpened knives and enhanced bonuses – willing to suggest how the salaries and jobs of others can be further cut. Consider the morality of that. Will no one think hard about what this means for our budget and our political system until it is too late? .

The very titans of global finance whose misadventures brought about the financial meltdown, got richer. And not just a little bit richer; a lot richer. In 2009, the average income of the top five percent of earners went up, while on average everyone else's income went down. This was not an anomaly but rather a continuation of a 40-year trend of ballooning incomes at the very top and stagnant incomes in the middle and at the bottom. The share of total income going to the top one percent has increased from roughly eight percent in the 1960s to more than 20 percent today.

This is what the political scientists Jacob Hacker and Paul Pierson call the "winner-take-all economy." It is not a picture of a healthy society.

Such a level of economic inequality, not seen in the United States since the eve of the Great Depression, bespeaks a political economy in which the financial rewards are increasingly concentrated among a tiny elite and whose risks are borne by an increasingly exposed and unprotected middle class.

Income inequality in the United States is higher than in any other advanced industrial democracy and by conventional measures comparable to that in countries such as Ghana, Nicaragua, and Turkmenistan.

It breeds political polarization, mistrust, and resentment between the haves and the have-nots and tends to distort the workings of a democratic political system in which money increasingly confers political voice and power.

The dramatic growth of inequality, then, is the result not of the "natural" workings of the market but of four decades' worth of deliberate political choices. Hacker and Pierson amass a great deal of evidence for this proposition, which leads them to the crux of their argument: that not just the U.S. economy but also the entire U.S. political system has devolved into a winner-take-all sport. They portray American politics not as a democratic game of majority rule but rather as a field of "organized combat" -- a struggle to the death among competing organized groups seeking to influence the policymaking process. Moreover, they suggest, business and the wealthy have all but vanquished the middle class and have thus been able to dominate policymaking for the better part of 40 years with little opposition.

The task of restoring some sense of proportion and balance to the winner-take-all political economy is essential if the American body politic is to recover from its current diseased condition.

Metrics to assess indebtedness of nations are classified as solvency and liquidity measures.

SOLVENCY

 

The defining element in determining the risk of debt is the issuer’s solvency – its ability to pay what it owes. The widest definition of government liabilities (owes) – gross public debt – captures all principal and interest payments due. As is true of all metrics, the gross public debt ratio (debt to GDP) provides only a partial indicator of sovereign solvency – a crude indicator of long-term national solvency. However, it does not consider debt relative to actual government revenues (the capacity to repay), or the amount and quality of public assets (the capacity to offset debt). Net public debt is gross public debt minus the assets held by the government (calculations differ slightly from government to government). The assets can include debt securities (national, regional or provincial) held by the government, other agency bonds, and cash, but do not account for non-financial assets.

External debt is particularly important when assessing the debt stocks in Latin America, Africa and other emerging economies where a history of poor credibility precluded countries from issuing international debt in their home currency. As countries develop their capital markets they are dependent on borrowing from outside sources, and currency risk becomes one of the most important factors weighing on overall external debt ratios.

While euro-denominated Euro-zone debts were once assumed to be free of currency risk within the ‘zone, it is dawning on investors that risks vary significantly across the Euro-zone. German debt and Greek debt, while issued in the same currency and from the same economic bloc, each possess distinct risk factors. Complicating the Euro-zone situation is very significant levels of cross-border holding of sovereign and banking debt by Euro-zone and wider-EU banks. According to the Institute of International Finance (IIF), for most of the sixteen Euro-zone sovereigns, non-domestic investors hold more than 50% of the outstanding government debt. Some 65% of Greek government debt is held by non-residents in the rest of the Euro-zone and, according to Bureau of International Statistics data, the largest creditors to Irish public- and private-sector debt are banks based in the UK and Germany.

LIQUIDITY

While solvency addressed the broader concept of a country’s ability to service its debts, liquidity targets the more immediate cost of funds to retire or roll-over its obligations.