Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 12-21-10

Last Update: 12/22/2010 04:29 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
KOREA                      
Seoul Artillery Test Spurs U.N. Session WSJ                    
Kim Jong-un 'Loves Nukes, Computer Games and Johnny Walker' Chosun                    
Market loses 2.8% on peninsular situation Shanghai Daily                    
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
Policymakers have their work cut out as the West remains on life support King X                  
The European debt crisis: Worrisome delusions VOX X                  
George Soros Presents His Solution To The Eurozone Crisis BI X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
Self-righteous Germany must accept a euro-debt union or leave EMU Pritchard X                  
                       
FRANCE                      
France's AAA Grade at Risk as Rating Cuts Spread Bloomberg X                  
                       
UK                      
CBI cuts Q1 growth forecast but sees early rate rise Reuters X                  
Coalition vows to stand firm on cuts FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Moody's downgrades ratings on Irish banks AP X                  
                       
ICELAND                      
Lessons From Iceland - Coming in from the cold Economist X                  
                       
TURKEY                      
IMF urges Turkey to take measures against housing bubble Hürriyet Daily X                  
                       
Morici: Downgrade US Treasurys to junk CNBC     X              
Insanity on the Potomac — Treasury investors recoiling in horror! Weiss     X              
Things I Believe Hussman       X            
Julian Assange Says He Has Enough Material To Make The Bosses Of A Major Bank Resign BI           X        
Wikileaks Tells Followers To Run From Bank Of America After Bank Cuts Off Payments BI           X        
Congress Threatens To Sow The Seeds Of Our Next Banking Crisis BI           X        
Unlikely commercial real estate rebound Barr               X    
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Malpass Says Unemployment Rate in U.S. Will Remain Above 9% Bloomberg   X                
You Can't Buy a Ream of Paper on Minimum Wage Huffington Post   X                
Number of Chinese public offerings soars China Daily             X      
Coal shortage causes power cuts in China: state media AFP             X      
China curbs excessive growth in land price China Daily             X      
Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in U.S. Lowenstein                 X  
Drama needed to jolt Americans into tackling debt FT  Tett                 X  
America's Childlike Desire to Avoid Making Trade-Offs Smith                 X  
Can Washington Tackle Its Sacred Deficit Cows? Time                 X  
                       
REMAINING BI                   24
David Rosenberg- Here's 10 Signs That The Holiday Retail Season Is Going Worse Than People Realize                      
The high price we pay for cheap food CNN                   31
Corn Price Bulls Get Room to Run AG Web                   31
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Quantitative Easing at Least Modestly Successful: Bullard CNBC                    
The Bennie Who Stole Christmas Quinn                    
The era of Bernankeism A Times                    
Mr. Bernanke Goes to War National Interest                    
When Zombies Win NY Times                    
Paleomonetarism Krugman                    
Paul on C-SPAN You Tube                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
12 Glaring Examples Of Conventional Wisdom That Investors Are Subscribing To Right Now Bloomberg                    
Things I Believe Hussman                    
Price And Punishment Grant                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Bears Turn Bulls as U.S. Gains From Roiling Markets Bloomberg                    
Monday Morning Outlook: Modest Weekly Gain Brings DJIA Within View of 11,500 Schaeffers                    
Number of the Week: Cash for Shares WSJ                    
Surprise! The US Economy Is Now Everyone's "Surprise" Pick To Surge In 2011 BI                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

Finance Asia                    
Thailand's currency war VOX                    
Currency tensions: What historical parallels teach us Price                    
Dollar Finds Strength As Global Financial Concerns Continue To Build WSJ                    
The Case Against Floating Currencies Bloomberg                    
South Korea Imposes Bank Levy to Reduce Capital Volatility                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Gold Advances in London on Demand for Alternative to Slumping Euro Value Bloomberg                    
A golden year end for gold? Brimelow                    
Soros Gold Bubble at $1,384 as Miners Push Buttons Bloomberg                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-21-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

KOREA

Seoul Artillery Test Spurs U.N. Session WSJ

 

Kim Jong-un 'Loves Nukes, Computer Games and Johnny Walker' Chosun

 

Market loses 2.8% on peninsular situation Shanghai Daily

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Policymakers have their work cut out as the West remains on life support King

 

The European debt crisis: Worrisome delusions VOX

 

George Soros Presents His Solution To The Eurozone Crisis  BI

 

 

GERMANY

Self-righteous Germany must accept a euro-debt union or leave EMU Pritchard

 FRANCE

France's AAA Grade at Risk as Rating Cuts Spread BL

UK

CBI cuts Q1 growth forecast but sees early rate rise Reuters

The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) downgraded its forecast for growth on Monday to 0.2 percent for the first quarter of 2011 but said it expected interest rates to rise in the first half of the year.

 

The employers group said the Bank of England would begin to "normalise" monetary policy in the spring as inflation picks up.

 

It said that would be followed by a slightly faster stimulus withdrawal over the second half, taking the Bank rate from a record low of 0.5 percent to 2.75 percent by the fourth quarter of 2012.

Coalition vows to stand firm on cuts  FT

IRELAND

Moody's downgrades ratings on Irish banks AP

ICELAND

Lessons From Iceland - Coming in from the cold Economist

TURKEY

IMF urges Turkey to take measures against housing bubble Hürriyet Daily

 

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Morici: Downgrade US Treasurys to junk CNBC

 

Insanity on the Potomac — Treasury investors recoiling in horror! Weiss

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Things I Believe Hussman

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Julian Assange Says He Has Enough Material To Make The Bosses Of A Major Bank Resign  BI

Wikileaks Tells Followers To Run From Bank Of America After Bank Cuts Off Payments  BI

Congress Threatens To Sow The Seeds Of Our Next Banking Crisis  BI

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

Unlikely commercial real estate rebound Barr


9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Malpass Says Unemployment Rate in U.S. Will Remain Above 9% BL

You Can't Buy a Ream of Paper on Minimum Wage HP

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Number of Chinese public offerings soars China Daily

Coal shortage causes power cuts in China: state media AFP

China curbs excessive growth in land price China Daily

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in U.S. Lowenstein

 

Drama needed to jolt Americans into tackling debt FT - Tett
America's Childlike Desire to Avoid Making Trade-Offs Smith
Once it costs $1 trillion just to pay the interest on existing (and rapidly ballooning) debt, then we won't be able to borrow enough to fund the Empire...

Can Washington Tackle Its Sacred Deficit Cows? Time


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

David Rosenberg- Here's 10 Signs That The Holiday Retail Season Is Going Worse Than People Realize  BI

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

The high price we pay for cheap food CNN

 

Corn Price Bulls Get Room to Run AG Web

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Quantitative Easing at Least Modestly Successful: Bullard CNBC

The Bennie Who Stole Christmas JimQ

The era of Bernankeism ATimes

Mr. Bernanke Goes to War National Interest

When Zombies Win NY Times

Paleomonetarism Krugman 

Paul on C-SPAN You Tube


 

 GENERAL INTEREST

12 Glaring Examples Of Conventional Wisdom That Investors Are Subscribing To Right Now  BL

Things I Believe Hussman

 Price And Punishment Grant
Is there a connection between the ideal of an unregulated economy and a large prison population?

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Bears Turn Bulls as U.S. Gains From Roiling Markets BL

Monday Morning Outlook: Modest Weekly Gain Brings DJIA Within View of 11,500 Schaeffers

Number of the Week: Cash for Shares WSJ

Surprise! The US Economy Is Now Everyone's "Surprise" Pick To Surge In 2011  BI

Nomura's 2011 survey of clients suggests investors are suddenly confident in the outlook for the United States, and see it surprising to the upside next year.

 

It's not entirely shocking this would be the result. Recent economic data coming out of the U.S., notably last week's Philly Fed and Empire State surveys, showed strong growth in the economy. Societe Generale now see Q4 2010 outperforming, and Goldman see 2011 looking a lot rosier.

 

Still, the fact that everyone has made the same "surprise" pick means it can't really be a surprise.

Check out more results of the Nomura survey here >

 

CURRENCY WARS

Thailand's currency war Finance Asia

Currency tensions: What historical parallels teach us VOX

Dollar Finds Strength As Global Financial Concerns Continue To Build Price

 

The Case Against Floating Currencies WSJ

South Korea Imposes Bank Levy to Reduce Capital Volatility BL

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Gold Advances in London on Demand for Alternative to Slumping Euro Value BL

 

A golden year end for gold? Brimelow

 

Soros Gold Bubble at $1,384 as Miners Push Buttons BL
Globally, the 10 biggest such funds now hold a combined 2,113 metric tons of gold, more than the reserves accumulated by every country in the world save four...

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Gold as money is incompatible with unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just 'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."  
 
William A Buckler
Publisher: The Privateer


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

12-21-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
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12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.