Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 12-20-10

Last Update: 12/21/2010 04:31 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
KOREA                      
South Korea on ‘high alert’ after exercises FT                    
South Korea Completes Live-Firing Drill as UN Wrangles Bloomberg                    
Firing Drill Increases Korea Tensions WSJ                    
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
The Euro’s Uneven Benefit in Europe Norris X                  
EU must choose its lies wisely Saft X                  
The Euro Brady Bunch HindeSight X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
OECD urges Spain to liberalise markets FT X                  
Spain's Banks Are About To Get Crushed By The Country's Real Estate Mess BI X                  
                       
FRANCE                      
French AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe Bloomberg X                  
                       
UK                      
BOE Forecast to Raise Interest Rate Within Six Months, CBI Says Bloomberg X                  
                       
CANADA                      
Canadian Real Estate Bubble Is Making The Country's Banks Look Anything But Sound BI X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
ECB raises fears over Irish rescue deal FT X                  
                       
USA                      
Q3 2010 Flow of Funds Noland X                  
Consumer, Business Spending Probably Increased Bloomberg X                  
Greenspan Says U.S. Economy May Grow 3.5% in 2011 Bloomberg X                  
                       
When Will Bonds Bottom? Swenlin     X              
Are Higher Treasury Yields Here to Stay? BMO Focus     X              
Build America Boom Set to Bust After Busiest Issuance Week: Muni Credit Bloomberg       X            
Regulators close banks in Ga., Fla., Ark., Minn. AP           X        
New Credit Union Regulations Will Enable Hundreds Of Takeovers By Wall Street BI           X        
Korea and euro tensions leave traders wary FT             X      
The 12 Risks You Must Prepare For In 2011 BI             X      
Here's The Truth About The Supposed "Recovery" In Commercial And Industrial Lending BI               X    
Opening the Bag of Mortgage Tricks NY Times Morgenson                 X  
Does 'Dr. Doom' think housing prices have bottomed? Life                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
A Close Look At The World's Increasing Dependence On China BI       X            
Kicking the Can Down the Road Mauldin                 X  
Estate Tax Will Return Next Year, but Few Will Pay It NY Times                 X  
Shock treatmentA scare is needed to jolt the US into tackling debt FT                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Yields Flatten QE2 Critics With Curve Showing Fed End Bloomberg                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Venezuela assembly gives Chavez decree powers Reuters                    
Explaining the Crisis With Dogma Nocera                    
Next Year - The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle! Harding                    
10 Trends for 2011 Celente                    
Taleb Interview on U.S. Economy, New Book Bloomberg                    
How a Different America Responded to the Great Depression PEW                    
Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in U.S.- Roger Lowenstein Bloomberg                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
South Korea Imposes Bank Levy to Reduce Capital Volatility Bloomberg                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Silver/Gold Ratio Reversion 4 Zeal                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Here's That Must-Watch 60 Minutes Segment On The States' "Day Of Reckoning" CBS                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-20-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

KOREA

South Korea on ‘high alert’ after exercises   FT

China had urged delay amid fears over North Korea’s reaction

 

South Korea Completes Live-Firing Drill as UN Wrangles  BL

 

Firing Drill Increases Korea Tensions  WSJ

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

The Euro’s Uneven Benefit in Europe   Norris

 

EU must choose its lies wisely Saft

 

The Euro Brady Bunch HindeSight

 

SPAIN

OECD urges Spain to liberalise markets  FT

Downbeat survey highlights country’s lack of competitiveness

Spain's Banks Are About To Get Crushed By The Country's Real Estate Mess  BI

FRANCE

French AAA Grade at Risk as Downgrades Sweep Europe  BL

 

UK

BOE Forecast to Raise Interest Rate Within Six Months, CBI Says BL

 

CANADA

Canadian Real Estate Bubble Is Making The Country's Banks Look Anything But Sound  BI

IRELAND

ECB raises fears over Irish rescue deal  FT

 

USA

 

 

Q3 2010 Flow of Funds Noland

 

Consumer, Business Spending Probably Increased   BL

Greenspan Says U.S. Economy May Grow 3.5% in 2011 BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

When Will Bonds Bottom? Swenlin

 

Are Higher Treasury Yields Here to Stay? BMO Focus

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Build America Boom Set to Bust After Busiest Issuance Week: Muni Credit BL

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Regulators close banks in Ga., Fla., Ark., Minn. AP FDIC

New Credit Union Regulations Will Enable Hundreds Of Takeovers By Wall Street  BI

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Korea and euro tensions leave traders wary  FT

 

The 12 Risks You Must Prepare For In 2011  BI

 

Here are the risks, their likelihood and their impact:

 

1. High yield spreads
2. Double dipping
3. Japan's debt mountain
4. Beggar thy neighbour mentality
5. Capital flows too hot to handle
6. Chinese inflation
7. Food riots
8. Is India an accident waiting to happen?
9. European sovereign risk
10. Massive refinancing needs
11. Premature withdrawal of monetary support
12. Israel launching a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

Here's The Truth About The Supposed "Recovery" In Commercial And Industrial Lending  BI
Why adjust for population and inflation? Consider: During the past 59 years, the US population has virtually doubled while the dollar has lost about 88% of its purchasing power to inflation. When we adjust accordingly, the latest commercial and industrial loan activity is about where we were in August 1989

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Opening the Bag of Mortgage Tricks NYT (Morgenson)

 

Does 'Dr. Doom' think housing prices have bottomed? Life


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

A Close Look At The World's Increasing Dependence On China  BI

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Kicking the Can Down the Road Mauldin

 

Estate Tax Will Return Next Year, but Few Will Pay It NYT

 

Shock treatmentA scare is needed to jolt the US into tackling debt  FT



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Yields Flatten QE2 Critics With Curve Showing Fed End  BL

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 Venezuela assembly gives Chavez decree powers Reuters

Explaining the Crisis With Dogma Nocera

Next Year - The Third Year of the Presidential Cycle! Harding

10 Trends for 2011 Celente

Taleb Interview on U.S. Economy, New Book BL

How a Different America Responded to the Great Depression PEW

Debt Pyramid Scheme Now the Norm in U.S.- Roger Lowenstein  BL

MARKET WARNINGS

 

CURRENCY WARS

South Korea Imposes Bank Levy to Reduce Capital Volatility  BL

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Silver/Gold Ratio Reversion 4 ZEAL

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

Here's That Must-Watch 60 Minutes Segment On The States' "Day Of Reckoning"  CBS

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Gold as money is incompatible with unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just 'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."  
 
William A Buckler
Publisher: The Privateer


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

MONDAY

12-20-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.