Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

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POSTS:  FRIDAY 12-17-10

Last Update: 12/18/2010 05:53 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Iraq: Al Qaeda Planning Holiday Attacks in West CBS                    
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
EU Debt Crisis Is 'Systemic,' According To Official's Warning Reuters X                  
Europe Staggers as Critical Summit Looms NY Times X                  
Buiter: ‘European sovereign debt kerfuffle’ FTA X                  
A red lineEurope cannot default its way back to health FT X                  
EU leaders back new bail-out system FT X                  
                       
GREECE                      
Greek Riots Mish X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
Spanish debt auction pushes borrowing costs to decade high Tele. X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
Germany defiant as Europe suffers Pritchard X                  
Merkel CNBC X                  
                       
UK                      
Safe sales soar as worried bank customers keep money at home Indep. X                  
Barnier accuses bankers of ‘blackmail’ FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Moody’s slashes Ireland’s credit rating FT X                  
                       
USA                      
“Sorkin says U.S. also faces 'lost decade' Kyodo News X                  
Philadelphia Factory Index Rises to Highest Since April 2005 Bloomberg X                  
Current-Account Gap in U.S. Widened in Third Quarter on Imports Bloomberg X                  
Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to 420,000 Last Week Bloomberg X                  
                       
Banks urged to use profits as a buffer FT   X                
Why I’m still a bull on bonds Rosenberg     X              
Bond investors brace for rise in interest rates FT     X              
California will suffer as the U.S. grows, forecast says LA Times       X            
Nothing Left To Cut: One Michigan Town's Budget Nightmare Huffington Post       X            
Basel Rules Would Have Cost Banks $797 Billion This Year Bloomberg           X        
Banks won't lead way on fixing debt problem: TD's Clark G&M           X        
Derivatives trading brought into public view FT           X        
U.S. Housing Starts Rise for First Time Since August Bloomberg                 X  
Bank of America in Setttlement Talks Over Mortgages WSJ                 X  
Homeowner Perks Under Fire WSJ                 X  
Number of homes taken back by lenders tumbles AP                 X  
Hearing on Foreclosure Crisis C-Span                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
FedEx Profit Trails Estimates as Shipment Growth Slows Bloomberg       X            
General Mills Profit Misses Estimates on Raw-Material Costs Bloomberg       X            
Taiwan Wrestles With Burgeoning Housing Bubble MW             X      
Nomura Says China, India to Account for Half of World Growth Bloomberg             X      
PBOC Commentary: Big Yuan Move Would Hurt China’s Economic Stability WSJ             X      
S&P Raises China’s Long-Term Sovereign Rating CNBC             X      
Fear and face dictate what China does with its money Finance Asia             X      
When Will the U.S. Become Greece? Bear's Lair                 X  
100% GDP to public debt... My Budget                 X  
CFTC admits will miss deadline on position limits Reuters                 X  
Obama meets with CEOs to urge them to start hiring USAT                 X  
Wall Street Blame Rift May Blunt Impact of U.S. Crisis Panel Bloomberg                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Ron Paul vs. the Fed CNBC                    
Tax Deal Could Be Fed’s Savior WSJ                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Economists Disagree on Future Path of Inflation WSJ                    
Rating agencies in a bind as pressures mount FT                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
No Emerging-Market Bears Unsettles Investors Shunning Conformity Bloomberg                    
Color Me More Bearish Kass                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Latin America: 2011 Currency Outlook Morgan Stanley                    
The IMF is on a fool’s errand Lachman                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Gold prices plummet on profit-taking TheStreet                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

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AMBER ALERT

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12-17-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

Iraq: Al Qaeda Planning Holiday Attacks in West CBS

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

EU Debt Crisis Is 'Systemic,' According To Official's Warning Reuters

 

Europe Staggers as Critical Summit Looms NYT

 

Buiter: ‘European sovereign debt kerfuffle’ FTA

 

A red lineEurope cannot default its way back to health  FT

EU leaders back new bail-out system  FT

GREECE

Greek Riots  Mish

 

SPAIN

Spanish debt auction pushes borrowing costs to decade high Tele

 

GERMANY

Germany defiant as Europe suffers Pritchard

Merkel  CNBC
“Jean-Claude Juncker and I had a long telephone conversation and cleared up the issue a while ago”

UK

Safe sales soar as worried bank customers keep money at home Independent

Barnier accuses bankers of ‘blackmail’ FT

IRELAND

Moody’s slashes Ireland’s credit rating  FT

 

USA

 

 

“Sorkin says U.S. also faces 'lost decade' Kyodo News

 

Philadelphia Factory Index Rises to Highest Since April 2005 BL

 

Current-Account Gap in U.S. Widened in Third Quarter on Imports BL

 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Unexpectedly Fell to 420,000 Last Week BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Banks urged to use profits as a buffer  FT

BoE stability report warns of wider eurozone crisis threat

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Why I’m still a bull on bonds Rosenberg

 

Bond investors brace for rise in interest rates  FT


4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

California will suffer as the U.S. grows, forecast says LAT

 

Nothing Left To Cut: One Michigan Town's Budget Nightmare HP

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Basel Rules Would Have Cost Banks $797 Billion This Year BL

Banks won't lead way on fixing debt problem: TD's Clark G&M

Derivatives trading brought into public view  FT

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

U.S. Housing Starts Rise for First Time Since August BL

 

Bank of America in Setttlement Talks Over Mortgages WSJ

 

Homeowner Perks Under Fire WSJ

The real-estate industry is warning that any policy changes could be disastrous for the fragile housing market

 

Number of homes taken back by lenders tumbles AP

 

Hearing on Foreclosure Crisis  C-Span

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

FedEx Profit Trails Estimates as Shipment Growth Slows BL

 

General Mills Profit Misses Estimates on Raw-Material Costs BL

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Taiwan Wrestles With Burgeoning Housing Bubble MW

Nomura Says China, India to Account for Half of World Growth BL

PBOC Commentary: Big Yuan Move Would Hurt China’s Economic Stability WSJ

S&P Raises China’s Long-Term Sovereign Rating CNBC

Fear and face dictate what China does with its money Finance Asia

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

When Will the U.S. Become Greece? Bear’s Lair

 

100% GDP to public debt... MyBudget

 

CFTC admits will miss deadline on position limits Reuters

 

Obama meets with CEOs to urge them to start hiring USAT

 

Wall Street Blame Rift May Blunt Impact of U.S. Crisis Panel BL

 



CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Ron Paul vs. the Fed CNBC

Tax Deal Could Be Fed’s Savior
WSJ

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Economists Disagree on Future Path of Inflation WSJ

Rating agencies in a bind as pressures mount  FT

MARKET WARNINGS

No Emerging-Market Bears Unsettles Investors Shunning Conformity BL

 
The last time investors were this bullish, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sank 11 percent in three months

 

Color Me More Bearish Kass

 

CURRENCY WARS

Latin America: 2011 Currency Outlook Morgan Stanley

 

 The IMF is on a fool’s errand Lachman

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Gold prices plummet on profit-taking TheStreet

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"Gold as money is incompatible with unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just 'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."  
 
William A Buckler
Publisher: The Privateer


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

12-17-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
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5 6 7 8 9 10 11
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26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.