Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

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POSTS:  WEDNESDAY 12-15-10

Last Update: 12/16/2010 08:21 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
Belgium And Austria Are Now Targets As Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis Spreads BI X                  
Brace for Change as the Global Economic Order Crumbles YALE X                  
Euro Trashed Weekly Standard X                  
OECD warns eurozone over debt despite its slow recovery DW X                  
                       
GREECE                      
Greeks walk off the job G&M X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
Spain faces fresh Moody’s downgrade FT X                  
Spanish Debt Watch FT Alpha X                  
Spanish debt yields near euro-era high FT X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
Call to Merkel on eurozone bonds FT X                  
                       
BELGIUM                      
Belgium faces S&P downgrade I Times X                  
                       
CANADA                      
Canadians With More Debt Than U.S. Spark Policy Makers' Warning Bloomberg X                  
Canadian Central Banker Warns of ‘Death Grip’ on U.S. Dollar WSJ X                  
                       
UK                      
UK inflation hits six-month high, seen as nail in coffin for more QE Telegraph X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Ireland blocks Allied Irish from paying bonuses Telegraph X                  
Irish Bank 'Relieved' CNBC X                  
                       
USA                      
U.S. business inventories rise 0.7% for October MW X                  
Producer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.8% in November; Core Up 0.3% Bloomberg X                  
Confidence at U.S. Small Companies Increases to Three-Year High Bloomberg X                  
Economic Indicators Review NB Financial X                  
                       
Europe should rescue banks before states Soros   X                
Why rates are rising worldwide TTicker     X              
Is the "Growth Scare" a Bond-Buying Opportunity? Forsyth     X              
Rising rates are a move back to normality FT     X              
Junk turns to goldHigh yield’s high returns and record issues FT     X              
Munis Crushed... Again BI       X            
A Post-Crisis Look at Bank Loans: Got Yield? Pimco           X        
Asian moves to boost transparency in derivatives markets Reuters           X        
The Risk Tsunami Project Syndicate             X      
Seized U.S. Home Sellers Luring Currency-Rich Australians Bloomberg                 X  
Mortgage-Bond Slump ‘Won’t Be Fun’ BW                 X  
Foreclosure Prevention... Bloomberg                 X  
Pixie Dust Loses Magic as Foreclosures Slam Utopian Disney Town Bloomberg                 X  
Housing bust batters some, spares others Baltimore Sun                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Public Pensions Face Underfunding Crisis ABC X                  
Yahoo preparing to lay off 600 to 700 workers AP   X                
Reid threatens to keep Congress into next year Wash. Post                 X  
Obama is a hostage, but not to the GOP Farrell                 X  
Moody's May Cut US Rating on Tax Package Reuters                 X  
Obama vows to fight Republicans -- next year USAT                 X  
Summers Warns Against Permanent Tax Cuts WSJ                 X  
Obama and CEOs: The great thaw CNN                 X  
Recession Lasting Until 2018 Worth Exploring Pesek                 X  
                       
REMAINING                      
U.S. Retail Sales Rise Above Forecast as Consumers Recover Bloomberg                   24
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fed Meets as Market Fights Its Moves CNBC                    
Fed Retains $600 Billion Bond-Buying Plan to Boost Economy Bloomberg                    
U.S. Money Growth Perks Up With Inflation Worries Haver                    
The Fed, Quantitative Easing and Private Sector Debt Smithers                    
Fed’s Contrarian Has a Wary Eye on the Past NY Times                    
Bernanke Options May Be Limited Amid Republican Scrutiny Bloomberg                    
Fed independence is the worst solution except for all the others Economist                    
Central bankers will not be able to hold the line for much longer Warner                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
A World in Upheaval Ackerman                    
Vatican Bank 'allowed clergy to act as front for Mafia' Independ.                    
Dr. Copper? Saut                    
Is deleveraging just a delusion? Barr                    
Energy bankers may be 2011’s hottest commodity Reuters                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Asset bubbles are underway Financial Post                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
U.S. Senators Push For China Currency Bill Reuters                    
Offshore Yuan Trading Takes Off WSJ                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Still More Hype Regarding Silver; Just the Math Maam Mish                    
JP Morgan Admits... ZH                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
9 TRILLION Dollars Missing from Federal Reserve,Fed Inspector General Can't Explain You Tube                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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12-15-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Belgium And Austria Are Now Targets As Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis Spreads  BI

 

Brace for Change as the Global Economic Order Crumbles YALE
Nations, balking at global governance, may be shocked into cooperation by future chaos

 

Euro Trashed Weekly Standard

 
Europe’s rendezvous with monetary destiny

OECD warns eurozone over debt despite its slow recovery DW

GREECE

Greeks walk off the job G&M

 

SPAIN

Spain faces fresh Moody’s downgrade  FT
Ratings agency highlights Madrid’s 2011 funding requirements

 

Spanish Debt Watch  FT Alphaville

Spanish debt yields near euro-era high   FT


GERMANY

Call to Merkel on eurozone bonds  FT
SPD urges taking lead in pressing for closer integration

 

BELGIUM

Belgium faces S&P downgrade ITimes

CANADA

Canadians With More Debt Than U.S. Spark Policy Makers' Warning BL

Canadian Central Banker Warns of ‘Death Grip’ on U.S. Dollar WSJ

UK

UK inflation hits six-month high, seen as nail in coffin for more QE Telegraph

 

IRELAND

Ireland blocks Allied Irish from paying bonuses Telegraph 

Irish Bank 'Relieved'  CNBC

 

USA

 

 

 

U.S. business inventories rise 0.7% for October MW

 

Producer Prices in U.S. Rose 0.8% in November; Core Up 0.3% BL PPI

 

Confidence at U.S. Small Companies Increases to Three-Year High BL

 

Economic Indicators Review NB Financial

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Europe should rescue banks before states Soros

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Why rates are rising worldwide TTicker

 

Is the "Growth Scare" a Bond-Buying Opportunity? Forsyth

 

Rising rates are a move back to normality  FT  Wolf

 

Junk turns to goldHigh yield’s high returns and record issues  FT

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

 

Munis Crushed... Again  BI

 

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


A Post-Crisis Look at Bank Loans: Got Yield? PIMCO

Asian moves to boost transparency in derivatives markets Reuters


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

The Risk Tsunami Project-Syndicate


8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Seized U.S. Home Sellers Luring Currency-Rich Australians BL

 

Mortgage-Bond Slump ‘Won’t Be Fun’ BW

 

Foreclosure Prevention...  BL

 

Pixie Dust Loses Magic as Foreclosures Slam Utopian Disney Town BL

“A lot of people bought homes in Celebration thinking Tinker Bell had sprinkled the town with pixie dust”

 

Housing bust batters some, spares others Baltimore Sun


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Public Pensions Face Underfunding Crisis ABC
Report: Philadelphia, New York, Chicago and Boston Top List of Cash-Starved Plans

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Yahoo preparing to lay off 600 to 700 workers AP

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Reid threatens to keep Congress into next year WP
New spending bill totals $575.13 million per page

 

Obama is a hostage, but not to the GOP Farrell

 

Moody's May Cut US Rating on Tax Package Reuters

 

Obama vows to fight Republicans -- next year USAT

 

Summers Warns Against Permanent Tax Cuts WSJ

 

Obama and CEOs: The great thaw CNN

 

Recession Lasting Until 2018 Worth Exploring Pesek



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

U.S. Retail Sales Rise Above Forecast as Consumers Recover BL Census

 




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Fed Meets as Market Fights Its Moves CNBC

 

It's possible the Fed could give a nod to the economic improvement...

 

Fed Retains $600 Billion Bond-Buying Plan to Boost Economy BL FED

U.S. Money Growth Perks Up With Inflation Worries HAVER

The Fed, Quantitative Easing and Private Sector Debt Smithers

Fed’s Contrarian Has a Wary Eye on the Past NYT
To him, Bernanke’s plan is “a dangerous gamble” and “a bargain with the devil”

Bernanke Options May Be Limited Amid Republican Scrutiny BL

Fed independence is the worst solution except for all the others Economist

Central bankers will not be able to hold the line for much longer Warner

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 A World in Upheaval Ackerman


So let’s recap. Bonds may well be headed for the trash heap. With rates on the rise, cash is a loser, buying power erodes, resource speculators rule, and stocks are expected to plunge momentarily. We cannot invest safely for the long term in Europe, Japan or China while politics, debt default, credit bubble concerns and currency issues weigh variously on those regions and all of their satellites.  I suppose there will always be canned goods, roasted gopher with mint sauce, and buckshot, but something tells me the problems we will confront are much bigger than that, and there is nowhere to run.  We are all in this mess together, and we need solutions now. Do we have a “Plan B” if The System actually crashes?  In fact, we are trying to live in a world community that cannot even agree on the basics of banking — a world where small minds scuttle every good idea, and true leadership is in extremely short supply. If ever there were a time for serious discussions between nations, it is now. We need a back-up plan, and quickly. The System could unravel at any moment.

 

Vatican Bank 'allowed clergy to act as front for Mafia' Independent

Dr. Copper? Saut

Is deleveraging just a delusion? Barr

Energy bankers may be 2011’s hottest commodity Reuters

MARKET WARNINGS

Asset bubbles are underway Financial Post

 

CURRENCY WARS

U.S. Senators Push For China Currency Bill Reuters

 

Offshore Yuan Trading Takes Off WSJ

 
“This is the beginning of a new era. This is a step moving to full convertibility of the yuan, and is a major change of the international financial landscape.”

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Still More Hype Regarding Silver; Just the Math Maam Mish

 

JP Morgan Admits... ZHedge

AUDIO / VIDEO

9 TRILLION Dollars Missing from Federal Reserve,Fed Inspector General Can't Explain You Tube

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Gold as money is incompatible with unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just 'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."  
 
William A Buckler
Publisher: The Privateer


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEDNESDAY

12-15-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
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5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.