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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 12-14-10

Last Update: 12/15/2010 05:17 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
The eurozone is in bad need of an undertaker Pritchard X                  
Fringe nations face huge cuts to living standards Independ. X                  
A European Economic Tsunami? NY Times  Lachman X                  
How a mini fiscal union could end instability Munchau X                  
Eurozone crisis: Structural reforms and country risk VOX X                  
                       
PORTUGAL                      
Portugal PM pushes to reassure investors FT X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
BIS, EIB say Germany aggravated euro crisis Reuters X                  
                       
ITALY                      
Italy: Roman showdown FT X                  
Berlusconi Warns of Crisis Ahead of Crucial Vote Reuters X                  
                       
UK                      
What is Plan B-Philip Stephens on UK economy doubts FT X                  
Lenders want to charge for accounts FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Irish Debt Default Would Be Far From Armageddon Hassett X                  
                       
ECB bond buying hits highest level since June FT   X                
10-Year Yield Jumps; Futures Imply 2012 Rate Hike Reuters     X              
Say goodbye to the bond bull market MSN Fleck     X              
Market alarm as US fails to control biggest ever debt Telegraph     X              
Expect Bankruptcy, Massive Municipal Bond Turmoil in 2011 Mish       X            
Yields on US munis highest for year FT       X            
BIS Quarterly Review, December 2010 BIS           X        
Barnier accuses bankers of ‘blackmail’ FT           X        
2011 risks Keenan             X      
Matt Taibbi's Great Squid Hunt The Nation             X      
Fewer Homes `Underwater' Last Quarter as Foreclosures Rose Bloomberg                 X  
More housing-market pain coming in 2011 MW                 X  
Housing Shaky as Lenders Tighten WSJ                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Number of the Week: 1.6 Million Put Off Retirement WSJ X                  
Filing bankruptcy in retirement may not be such a bad idea USAT X                  
Grocery Store Chain A&P Files for Bankruptcy Protection Reuters       X            
China vows more policies to curb inflation China Daily             X      
As China Rolls Ahead, Fear Follows NY Times             X      
If China Blows Up, So Will Every Other Market Lenzner             X      
Where will the world's liquidity head to next? China Post             X      
Investment speculators enter market in bigger numbers China Daily             X      
50% housing bubble looms over 7 major Chinese cities People's Daily             X      
Hong Kong Home Prices Entering Bubble, JPMorgan Says BW             X      
China's real estate bubble economy is in big trouble: Chanos IB Times             X      
China’s era of easy growth gone? CNN             X      
Default Swaps Jump Most Among BRICs as Inflation Breaches 5% Bloomberg             X      
Jim Rogers Bets on China's Renminbi TheStreet             X      
Senate nears vote on Obama tax package MSNBC                 X  
Federal Judge to Rule on Health Law's Constitutionality WSJ                 X  
Judge Rejects Key Part of Obama Healthcare Law Reuters                 X  
U.S. Officials Don't Get It, We're At Economic War With China BI                    
                      24
OTHER Bloomberg                    
Reviving Consumers Snap Up Tiffany Keys, Blue Nile Pearls                      
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fed remains in the hot seat CNN                    
In Fed We Trust, Sometimes Newsweek                    
This Is The Ship Bernanke Is Desperate To Turn Around, And We'll Soon Learn If He Pulled It Off BI                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Warning: An Updated Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Hussman                    
In search of real money Price                    
No New Normal for 2011 in Forecasts for 11% S&P 500 Gain Bloomberg                    
Block Those Metaphors Krugman                    
Wall Street Sees Record Revenue in '09-10 Recovery From Bailout Bloomberg                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Adens: “Huge” stock market decline coming, but not yet Brimelow                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Currency exchangeThe Chinese renminbi is going global FT                    
Capital inflows to Turkey spur rate cut plan FT                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
JPMorgan cuts back on US silver futures FT                    
HK gold exchange to launch renminbi contract FT                    
All about gold with John Hathaway, Peter Munk, & James Grant Rose                    
Gold May Beat Silver, Lifting Ratio by as Much as 20% Bloomberg                    
SPDR Gold Trust holdings fall by 3.95 tonnes Reuters                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-14-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

The eurozone is in bad need of an undertaker Pritchard

 
Spain and Portugal will be left nakedly exposed before their funding crunch in January.

 

Fringe nations face huge cuts to living standards Independent
It puts the chances of the single currency surviving at just one in five.

 

A European Economic Tsunami? NYT (Lachman)

 

How a mini fiscal union could end instability Wolfgang Münchau

 

Eurozone crisis: Structural reforms and country risk VOX

 

PORTUGAL

Portugal PM pushes to reassure investors  FT

 

GERMANY

BIS, EIB say Germany aggravated euro crisis Reuters

 

ITALY

Italy: Roman showdown FT

 

Berlusconi Warns of Crisis Ahead of Crucial Vote Reuters

UK

What is Plan B-Philip Stephens on UK economy doubts  FT

 

Lenders want to charge for accounts  FT

 

IRELAND

Irish Debt Default Would Be Far From Armageddon Hassett

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

ECB bond buying hits highest level since June   FT

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

10-Year Yield Jumps; Futures Imply 2012 Rate Hike Reuters

 

“Many investors are now saddled with unrealized losses, which points to strong pressure for more selling”

 

Say goodbye to the bond bull market MSN (Fleck)

 

Market alarm as US fails to control biggest ever debt Telegraph
US Treasuries last week suffered their biggest two-day sell-off since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Expect Bankruptcy, Massive Municipal Bond Turmoil in 2011 Mish

 
Yields on US munis highest for year   FT


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


BIS Quarterly Review, December 2010 BIS

Barnier accuses bankers of ‘blackmail’  FT

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

2011 risks Keenan

 

Matt Taibbi's Great Squid Hunt TheNation 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Fewer Homes `Underwater' Last Quarter as Foreclosures Rose BL

 

More housing-market pain coming in 2011 MW

 

Housing Shaky as Lenders Tighten WSJ


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Number of the Week: 1.6 Million Put Off Retirement WSJ

Filing bankruptcy in retirement may not be such a bad idea USAT


12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Grocery Store Chain A&P Files for Bankruptcy Protection Reuters


17- CHINA BUBBLE


China vows more policies to curb inflation China Daily 

As China Rolls Ahead, Fear Follows NYT

If China Blows Up, So Will Every Other Market Lenzner

Where will the world's liquidity head to next? China Post

Investment speculators enter market in bigger numbers China Daily

50% housing bubble looms over 7 major Chinese cities People’s Daily

Hong Kong Home Prices Entering Bubble, JPMorgan Says BW

China's real estate bubble economy is in big trouble: Chanos IBTimes

China’s era of easy growth gone? CNN

Default Swaps Jump Most Among BRICs as Inflation Breaches 5% BL

Jim Rogers Bets on China's Renminbi TheStreet


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Senate nears vote on Obama tax package MSNBC

 

Federal Judge to Rule on Health Law's Constitutionality WSJ

 

Judge Rejects Key Part of Obama Healthcare Law Reuters

 

U.S. Officials Don't Get It, We're At Economic War With China  BI

 

 

OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

Reviving Consumers Snap Up Tiffany Keys, Blue Nile Pearls BL

 

 




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Fed remains in the hot seat CNN  

In Fed We Trust, Sometimes Newsweek

This Is The Ship Bernanke Is Desperate To Turn Around, And We'll Soon Learn If He Pulled It Off  BI




 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 Warning: An Updated Who's Who of Awful Times to Invest Hussman

 

In search of real money Price

No New Normal for 2011 in Forecasts for 11% S&P 500 Gain BL

Block Those Metaphors Krugman

Wall Street Sees Record Revenue in '09-10 Recovery From Bailout BL

MARKET WARNINGS

Adens: “Huge” stock market decline coming, but not yet Brimelow

 

CURRENCY WARS

Currency exchangeThe Chinese renminbi is going global  FT

Capital inflows to Turkey spur rate cut plan   FT

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

JPMorgan cuts back on US silver futures  FT

HK gold exchange to launch renminbi contract FT

 

All about gold with John Hathaway, Peter Munk, & James Grant Rose

 

Gold May Beat Silver, Lifting Ratio by as Much as 20% BL

 

SPDR Gold Trust holdings fall by 3.95 tonnes Reuters

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Gold as money is incompatible with unlimited majority rule and scoffs at the idea that money is just 'credit'. It negates any rationale, however farfetched, for the existence of central banks. It precludes 'fractional reserve banking' or any other method of debasing its utility as a medium of exchange. Last and most important, it SEVERELY curbs the power of government to interfere in the lives of its citizens. No assembly of national “leaders” brought together to “modernize” a financial system will ever agree to its use as money. But let one nation anywhere implement it, and the lid blows off."  
 
William A Buckler
Publisher: The Privateer


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

12-14-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.