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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 12-11-10

Last Update: 12/12/2010 05:16 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
Merkel and Sarkozy call for deeper union FT X                  
Germany Vows Defense of Euro WSJ X                  
                       
FRANCE                      
Germany, France reject bigger safety net and joint bonds Reuters X                  
                       
UK                      
Police braced for more student unrest FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Drastic Cuts and Punitive Interest Rates Spiegel X                  
Ireland proposes 90% bank bonus tax G&M X                  
Ireland Budget Scotia X                  
Irish banks' need for liquidity support grows FT X                  
                       
USA                      
Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Rises to a Six-Month High Bloomberg X                  
U.S. Trade Gap Drops as Exports Rise to Two-Year High Bloomberg X                  
Pimco Raises U.S. Growth Forecast on `Massive' Stimulus Bloomberg X                  
                       
Illinois Seeks Wall Street Cash WSJ       X            
Three indicted in US municipal bid-rigging Reuters       X            
Municipals Calm Down; $1.3 Billion WTC Deal Held Back Dow Jones       X            
World Trade Center bonds postponed FT       X            
Revised Fed Data Raises Doubt on Foreign Appetite for Build America Bonds NY Times       X            
Gensler Says CFTC Needs Funds for Rulemaking, Monitoring Under Dodd-Frank Bloomberg           X        
How Canada avoided housing 'bubble and crash' G&M                 X  
Laundering real estate Dr HB                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Accounting for Public Pensions NY Times - Norris X                  
China raises bank reserves third time in a month Reuters             X      
China's trade surplus hits $22.89b in Nov China Daily             X      
CPI worry flares as China trade soars Dow Jones             X      
China's GDP tops Japan in third quarter China Daily             X      
China Property Prices Rise at Slower Pace After Curbs Bloomberg             X      
China regulators warn of real-estate trust risk Caixin             X      
Obamas Hostage Deal Krugman                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front' Bloomberg                    
Treasury Fall Poses Long-Term Dilemma for Fed Balance Sheet WSJ                    
Fed to bond vigilantes: Read my yields MW                    
Bernanke Interview an Infomercial, Loeb Says Dealbook                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid Casey                    
'This is the biggest fraud in the history of the capital markets' Wash. Post                    
Why we have to live with low interest rates FT  Wolf                    
                       
FLASH CRASH                      
CFTCS Chilton Urges Position Limits, High-Frequency Trade Curbs Bloomberg                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

RSS 

COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a strong US$. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Dont be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled Extend & Pretend in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled Extend & Pretend detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Dont let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an undervalued Yuan as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-11-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

Merkel and Sarkozy call for deeper union  FT

 

Germany Vows Defense of Euro  WSJ

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schuble vowed that Berlin and other euro-zone governments would do whatever it takes to defend the common European currency.

 

FRANCEGermany, France reject bigger safety net and joint bonds Reuters

UK

Police braced for more student unrest  FT

 

IRELAND

Drastic Cuts and Punitive Interest Rates Spiegel
The EU Is Pushing Ireland to the Brink of Ruin

Ireland proposes 90% bank bonus tax G&M

 Ireland Budget ScotiaIrish banks' need for liquidity support grows   FT


JAPAN

 

USA

 

 

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Rises to a Six-Month High BL

 

U.S. Trade Gap Drops as Exports Rise to Two-Year High BL

 

Pimco Raises U.S. Growth Forecast on `Massive' Stimulus BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Illinois Seeks Wall Street Cash  WSJ

 
Illinois is courting hedge funds and other investors to help finance about $2.5 billion it owes its vendors. Here is how one scenario in a recent pilot program would work, involving a vendor owed $100 million

 

 

Three indicted in US municipal bid-rigging Reuters

 

Municipals Calm Down; $1.3 Billion WTC Deal Held Back Dow Jones

 

World Trade Center bonds postponed FT

 

Revised Fed Data Raises Doubt on Foreign Appetite for Build America Bonds NYT

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Gensler Says CFTC Needs Funds for Rulemaking, Monitoring Under Dodd-Frank BL

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

How Canada avoided housing 'bubble and crash' G&M


Laundering real estate Dr.  HB

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Accounting for Public Pensions NYT (Norris)

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China raises bank reserves third time in a month Reuters

China's trade surplus hits $22.89b in Nov China Daily

CPI worry flares as China trade soars Dow Jones

China's GDP tops Japan in third quarter China Daily

China Property Prices Rise at Slower Pace After Curbs BL

China regulators warn of real-estate trust risk Caixin

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Obamas Hostage Deal Krugman



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Rep. Ron Paul Says He Won't Push for End to Fed `Up Front' BL

Treasury Fall Poses Long-Term Dilemma for Fed Balance Sheet  WSJ

Fed to bond vigilantes: Read my yields MW

Bernanke Interview an Infomercial, Loeb Says Dealbook

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid Casey 

 

'This is the biggest fraud in the history of the capital markets' WP

 

Why we have to live with low interest rates FT (Wolf)

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

CFTCS Chilton Urges Position Limits, High-Frequency Trade Curbs BL

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEEKEND

12-11-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.