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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  FRIDAY 12-10-10

Last Update: 12/11/2010 04:02 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT                      
Global bond rout deepens on US fiscal worries Pritchard X                  
The ECB's bad poker China Daily X                  
                       
UK RIOTING                      
Check Out Photos Of The Insane Student Riots Happening In London BI X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Fitch slashes Ireland to BBB+ on bank restructure Reuters X                  
                       
USA                      
U.S. households continue to cut their debts MW X                  
Flow of Funds Federal Reserve X                  
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rose 1.9% in October, Sales Up 2.2% Bloomberg X                  
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 17,000 to 421,000 Last Week Bloomberg X                  
                       
Markets Defy Fed's Bond-Buying Push WSJ     X              
Four Charts That Will Make Bond Vigilantes Shriek In Terror BI     X              
Firms, Funds Feel Squeeze of Low Rates WSJ           X        
Bank of Canada warns risks to financial system rise on family debt, euro woe G&M             X      
Mortgage rates hit 4.61 pct.; refi's could slow AP                 X  
U.S. Home Values May Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year Bloomberg                 X  
Wall Street Sees New Profits In Homeowner Distress Huffington Post                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
The 10 worst states for retirees MW X                  
About 6 Million Didn’t Work at All Last Year WSJ   X                
Two Chinese firms dazzle in U.S. market debuts AP             X      
Chinese IPO Frenzy BeSpoke             X      
House Democrats Reject Tax Plan Unless Changed ABC                 X  
Larry Summers says tax cut deal must pass soon to avoid 'double dip' Wash. Post                 X  
Deficit commission's leader knocks tax cut plan AP                 X  
Why the Obama tax deal with Republicans is insane Corrente                    
The Madness of Obamanomics Spectator                 X  
Quantifying the second stimulus Salmon                 X  
Cities see a new spike in property bubble China Daily                 X  
Special Report: The Chinese consumer awakens Reuters                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
The Federal Reserve's $3.3 Trillion Insider Loans Follow a History of Corrupt Practices Auerback                    
Majority of Americans Say Fed Should Be Reined In or Abolished Bloomberg                    
The Era of Turbulence Xie                    
Fed's QE Ponzi Scheme Begins To Backfire Dorsch                    
Ron Paul Prepared to Subpoena Fed Mish                    
Fed Emails Are Sought WSJ                    
Why Ben Is Addicted To Failure Forbes                    
The Fed: From Central Banking to Central Planning Minyanville                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
How west can reverse a decade of decline Gordon Brown                    
                       
FLASH CRASH                      
Is a stock-buying panic possible? MW                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Demand for U.S. Cash Surges WSJ                    
Who gains from a revaluation of China’s currency? VOX                    
Brazil ready for more currency warfare FT                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Why 'smart money' is betting on gold... and housing TTicker                    
GCC urged to boost gold reserves National                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-10-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Global bond rout deepens on US fiscal worries Pritchard

 

The ECB's bad poker China Daily

 

UK

Check Out Photos Of The Insane Student Riots Happening In London  BI

 

 

IRELAND

Fitch slashes Ireland to BBB+ on bank restructure Reuters

 

USA

 

 

 

U.S. households continue to cut their debts MW
Net wealth rises slightly in 3rd quarter; businesses still hoard cash

 

Flow of Funds Federal Reserve

 

U.S. Wholesale Inventories Rose 1.9% in October, Sales Up 2.2% BL

 

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fell 17,000 to 421,000 Last Week BL

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Markets Defy Fed's Bond-Buying Push  FT

 

 

A Federal Reserve Bank of Boston study estimates that through 2012 the bond purchases will result in 700,000 jobs that wouldn't otherwise be created, a big number, yet a fraction of the 8.3 million jobs wiped out in the recession. In a December Wall Street Journal survey of private economists, 42 of 52 called the estimate too optimistic.

 

Four Charts That Will Make Bond Vigilantes Shriek In Terror  BI

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


U.S. nonfinancial businesses increased their liquid assets $1.932 trillion in the third quarter, a jump of $243 billion from a year earlier, according to the Fed. Banks' commercial and industrial loans outstanding in November were down 7.2% from a year ago; their holdings of low-risk Treasurys were up nearly 17%.


Firms, Funds Feel Squeeze of Low Rates WSJ

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Bank of Canada warns risks to financial system rise on family debt, euro woe G&M

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

About 11 million homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, making refinancing practically impossible.

 

About 70% of U.S. mortgage holders were paying at least one percentage point more than the going interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in October, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from research firm LPS Applied Analytics.

 

Mortgage rates hit 4.61 pct.; refi's could slow AP


U.S. Home Values May Drop by $1.7 Trillion This Year BL

Wall Street Sees New Profits In Homeowner Distress HP

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


The 10 worst states for retirees MW

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


About 6 Million Didn’t Work at All Last Year WSJ

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

At Ford Motor Co., "We've got to get debt down," Neil Schloss, the company's treasurer, said in an interview last week. Although Ford's car-finance unit tapped bond markets in September as interest rates fell—and although Ford on Thursday said it would invest $600 million in a Louisville plant—executives are averse to doing much borrowing because they want to win back an investment-grade credit rating. Ford's overall borrowing is down by $15 billion from a year ago.

 

While companies are grabbing cheap credit, many are investing and hiring outside the U.S. Chemical company Huntsman Corp. leapt at the chance to refinance $530 million of long-term debt in September and November. This reduced interest costs and pushed out repayment dates, helping Huntsman to invest in its business, according to its chief financial officer, Kimo Esplin. But the Texas company's biggest investment plans, which could result in roughly $400 million of spending in 2011, are for fast-growing economies in Asia. "Companies like Huntsman have easy access to capital markets, but they're taking that capital and they're funding growth outside the U.S.," Mr. Esplin said.

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Two Chinese firms dazzle in U.S. market debuts AP
The impressive initial public offerings kick off a week that will see about half a dozen Chinese companies go public.

Chinese IPO Frenzy BeSpoke

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

House Democrats Reject Tax Plan Unless Changed ABC

 

Larry Summers says tax cut deal must pass soon to avoid 'double dip' WP

 

Deficit commission's leader knocks tax cut plan AP

 

Why the Obama tax deal with Republicans is insane Corrente

 

The Madness of Obamanomics Spectator

 

Quantifying the second stimulus Salmon

 

Cities see a new spike in property bubble China Daily

 

Special Report: The Chinese consumer awakens Reuters


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

The Federal Reserve's $3.3 Trillion Insider Loans Follow a History of Corrupt Practices Auerback

Majority of Americans Say Fed Should Be Reined In or Abolished BL Video

The Era of Turbulence Xie
Old monetary policy tricks have lost their magic in today's increasingly global economy

Fed's QE Ponzi Scheme Begins To Backfire Dorsch

Ron Paul Prepared to Subpoena Fed Mish

Fed Emails Are Sought WSJ

Why Ben Is Addicted To Failure Forbes

The Fed: From Central Banking to Central Planning Minyanville

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

How west can reverse a decade of decline Gordon Brown

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

Is a stock-buying panic possible? MW

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

CURRENCY WARS

Demand for U.S. Cash Surges WSJ

 
The world-wide interest in holding cold, hard dollars is driven substantially by fear.

 

Who gains from a revaluation of China’s currency? VOX

Brazil ready for more currency warfare  FT

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Why 'smart money' is betting on gold... and housing TTicker

 

GCC urged to boost gold reserves National

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

12-10-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.