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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  THURSDAY 12-09-10

Last Update: 12/10/2010 04:24 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
For Europe, a crisis too good to waste MW X                  
Deutsche Bank Offers `Plan B' for ECB Crisis Fight- Euro Credit Bloomberg X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Harsh Irish budget fails to stem eurozone debt crisis fears Telegraph X                  
George Osborne to set cap on UK loan to Ireland Guardian X                  
                       
ICELAND                      
Iceland Cuts Main Rate to 4.5% as Stable Krona Cools Inflation Bloomberg X                  
                       
Banks in Europe Fail Stress Tests With No Authority Bloomberg   X                
QE2's days are numbered Grannis     X              
US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off in two years FT     X              
Bond Vigilantes Could Target US: Roubini CNBC     X              
Bond Vigilantes May Thwart Tax Deal Forsyth     X              
Eurozone bond markets face testing run FT     X              
Fate of Build America Bonds in dispute Reuters       X            
Secret GOP plan: Push states to declare bankruptcy and smash unions Pethokoukis       X            
Bank of America Deal in Muni Case May Be `Tip of the Iceberg' Bloomberg       X            
Low Rates Squeeze Financial Industry WSJ           X        
No relief in sight for U.S. housing Reuters                 X  
Toll CEO Sees Nascent Rebound... Bloomberg                 X  
Mortgage Applications Declined Slightly Last Week Reuters                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Tax-Cut Deal Alone Won't Add Enough Jobs El-Erian   X                
Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise WSJ   X                
Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages WSJ     X              
ADB revises China's GDP expansion upward to 10.1% Shanghai Daily             X      
Academy says China's housing prices are 30 pct overpriced Shanghai Daily             X      
China is 'doing right thing' to curb inflation: Jim Rogers Xinhua             X      
Obama facing tough sell in own party on tax deal AP                 X  
U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's: China adviser Reuters                 X  
Rogers: U.S. government inflation data is "a sham" Reuters                 X  
For Obama, Tax Deal Is a Back-Door Stimulus Plan NY Times                 X  
Tax cuts, Oprah-style Salmon                 X  
Democrats not happy with Obama CNN                 X  
The Economic Incompetence Of The Political Class Forbes                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
More Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished Bloomberg                    
Bernanke's 21-Month U-Turn Takes 60 Minutes Baum                    
Folding the Fed: Central bank isn't equipped to save the economy WT                    
Knowing the Limits of Monetary Policy CATO                    
GOP leaders criticize Fed, call for monetary policy debate The Hill                    
Jon Stewart's Takedown Of Ben Bernanke's 'Not Printing Money' Claims BI                    
Is Ben Bernanke driving the QEII or the Titanic? Whalen                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Death of the crisis has been exaggerated Harrison                    
The Perils of Bailouts Bear's Lair                    
Private equity wins, U.S. creditors lose Saft                    
What will 2011 bring? Triple-digit oil Rubin                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
It isn't QE2 that's flooding Asia with Hot Money Asia Sentinel                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
SPDR Gold Trust holdings slip to 1,297.726 tonnes Reuters                    
Gold Declines Bloomberg                    
Gold vs. Silver BeSpoke                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-09-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

For Europe, a crisis too good to waste MW

 

Deutsche Bank Offers `Plan B' for ECB Crisis Fight- Euro Credit  BL

 

The European Central Bank should draft commercial lenders as allies in its fight to stem the euro-region financial crisis by giving them incentives to buy bonds of debt-swamped governments, Deutsche Bank AG says.

 

In his proposed “Plan B,” London-based Deutsche Bank economist Gilles Moec said the ECB would limit collateral for one-year central bank loans to investment-grade sovereign paper rated less than AAA, encouraging purchases of debt sold by Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland. He also suggested a “margin-call holiday,” freeing banks from providing more collateral if the value of the swapped bonds falls.

 

IRELAND

Harsh Irish budget fails to stem eurozone debt crisis fears Telegraph

George Osborne to set cap on UK loan to Ireland Guardian

ICELAND

Iceland Cuts Main Rate to 4.5% as Stable Krona Cools Inflation BL

JAPAN

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Thursday, Dec. 9
8:30 am Jobless claims Dec.4   425,000 436,000
10 am Wholesale inventories Oct.   N/A 1.5%
12 pm Household debt 3Q   N/A -2.3%

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Banks in Europe Fail Stress Tests With No Authority BL


3- BOND BUBBLE

 

QE2's days are numbered  Grannis

 

 

US Treasuries hit by biggest sell-off in two years  FT
Follows soaring borrowing costs for western goverments

 

Bond Vigilantes Could Target US: Roubini CNBC

 

Bond Vigilantes May Thwart Tax Deal Forsyth

 

Eurozone bond markets face testing run  FT

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Fate of Build America Bonds in dispute Reuters

 

Secret GOP plan: Push states to declare bankruptcy and smash unions Pethokoukis

 

Bank of America Deal in Muni Case May Be `Tip of the Iceberg' BL

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Low Rates Squeeze Financial Industry WSJ



At banks with more than $1 billion in assets, net interest margin has fallen to 3.74% as of Sept. 30 from 3.85% in March, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The percentage measures how much banks earn from loans and other assets compared with what is paid to depositors.

 

"We have probably seen the high-water mark for margins in the third quarter," says Mark Fitzgibbon, an analyst at Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP. "In the next several quarters, we will see it move lower."


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

No relief in sight for U.S. housing Reuters 

 

Toll CEO Sees Nascent Rebound...  BL

 

Mortgage Applications Declined Slightly Last Week Reuters


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Tax-Cut Deal Alone Won't Add Enough Jobs El-Erian

Food Stamp Rolls Continue to Rise WSJ

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages WSJ
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee about half of all first-lien mortgages in the U.S., have been highly reluctant to reduce loan balances...

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


ADB revises China's GDP expansion upward to 10.1% Shanghai Daily

Academy says China's housing prices are 30 pct overpriced Shanghai Daily

China is 'doing right thing' to curb inflation: Jim Rogers Xinhua

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Obama facing tough sell in own party on tax deal  AP
If Democrats kill the package, it would mark a stunning defeat for Obama...

 

U.S. fiscal health worse than Europe's: China adviser Reuters

 

Rogers: U.S. government inflation data is "a sham" Reuters

 

For Obama, Tax Deal Is a Back-Door Stimulus Plan NYT (Leonhardt)

 

Tax cuts, Oprah-style Salmon

 

Democrats not happy with Obama CNN

 

The Economic Incompetence Of The Political Class Forbes


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

More Than Half of Americans Want Fed Reined In or Abolished  BL

Bernanke's 21-Month U-Turn Takes 60 Minutes Baum

Folding the Fed: Central bank isn't equipped to save the economy WT

Knowing the Limits of Monetary Policy CATO

GOP leaders criticize Fed, call for monetary policy debate The Hill

Jon Stewart's Takedown Of Ben Bernanke's 'Not Printing Money' Claims BInsider

Is Ben Bernanke driving the QEII or the Titanic? Whalen

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Death of the crisis has been exaggerated Harrison

 

 The Perils of Bailouts Bear’s Lair

 

Private equity wins, U.S. creditors lose Saft

What will 2011 bring? Triple-digit oil Rubin

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

CURRENCY WARS

It isn't QE2 that's flooding Asia with Hot Money Asia Sentinel

 
the data actually given by the ADB suggest that the main cause of upward pressure has been the rise in the current account surpluses of these countries. The only one where such inflows have been very significant is China, which has resisted significant currency appreciation and kept its interest rates at levels which make no sense for an economy growing at 9 percent and experiencing 3-4 percent inflation.

Taking the four main Asean countries together (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines) the ADB data shows that in the first half of 2010 surpluses on the aggregated capital accounts amounted to just 1.2 percent of GDP while current account surpluses were 4.3 percent. “Errors and omissions” showed an outflow of a massive 2.3 percent.

The small net capital inflow was in contrast to 2009 when there was net outflow amounting to 4.5 percent of GDP following a similar outflow for 2008 – which saw inflow in the first half of the year then massive outflow as the global crisis hit.

Looking at the individual countries within this group, it is clear that the two with the lowest current account surpluses, Thailand and Indonesia, have also been the least concerned to prevent their currencies rising more than others in the region. Although they have imposed some controls, they are still more easily accessed than the Malaysian ringgit which, judging by a current surplus now at 15 percent of GDP and above 10 percent for a long period, should have appreciated far more than has been the case.

The story is a little different for the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries – Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore – but again upward currency pressure comes mainly from current account surpluses which totaled 7.7 percent of GDP in the first half of this year while capital inflow was just 1.6 percent. The previous two years saw wild swings in the capital account as money which flooded out in 2008 flooded back in 2009 but on balance saw a small net outflow. Meanwhile current account surpluses have never fallen below 4.3 percent (in the first half of 2008) and hit 8 percent for the whole of 2009.

Korea has surely faced a surge of foreign money this year, much into a bond market offering higher returns than elsewhere as well as the prospect of currency appreciation. But the won has done no more than make up for its steep fall and capital outflow in 2008. Its current account surplus has been rising and clearly justifies a stronger won, at least against the yen.

But Korea is less of an offender than Taiwan, whose current surplus has been rising strongly and is now 8 percent of GDP, yet its currency has appreciated by a mere 5 percent against the dollar over the past year and money growth and inflation are low. Taiwan maintains by far the tightest controls of the NIEs, not a policy designed to win friends overseas.

It is only China which has seen a large net capital inflow – 3.6 percent of GDP – as well as current account surplus – 5 percent of GDP in the first half of this year following a 6 percent current account and 2.9 percent capital account for 2009 as a whole despite its capital controls and closely managed exchange rate.

China has been attempting to tighten controls to prevent this inflow from adding to already too high money growth. But resistance to significant appreciation may be having a more disruptive impact than would allowing the currency to rise another 10-15 percent.

China may be in receipt of some of those US dollars which Bernanke is endeavoring to create. But undervaluation attracts capital like nothing else so it is more than likely that China is attracting surpluses being generated elsewhere in Asia and flowing out. As for money supply growth, China's 19 percent rise in M2 this year contrasts with a US rise of a mere 3.5 percent. So who is really printing money?

For East Asia as a whole there is clearly massive scope for consumption growth in China, Taiwan and to a lesser extent Korea and equally massive scope for investment growth in the ASEAN four – preferably in productive assets not monuments like new skyscrapers in low density Kuala Lumpur.

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

SPDR Gold Trust holdings slip to 1,297.726 tonnes Reuters 

 

Gold Declines BL

 

Gold vs. Silver BeSpoke

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

THURSDAY

12-09-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.