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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEDNESDAY 12-08-10

Last Update: 12/09/2010 04:46 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
Euro collapse 'possible' amid deepening divisions over bail-out Telegraph X                  
IMF calls for ‘comprehensive’ euro solution FT X                  
Shrinking Euro Union Seen by Creditors Who Cried for Argentina Bloomberg X                  
EU Rules Out Immediate Aid Boost, Banks on ECB to Fight Crisis Bloomberg X                  
Mixed Signals On Euro As Options, Speculative Bets Diverge WSJ X                  
No escape from Europe’s debt crisis FT X                  
A World Without Europe NY Times X                  
Some European Countries Are Bankrupt: Jim Rogers CNBC X                  
Statistics on payment and settlement systems in selected countries BIS X                  
Deleveraging is changing attitudes to sovereign risk FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Ireland's 'morbidly obese cats' and runaway public sector pay Guardian X                  
Ireland to spare no one in austerity drive Reuters X                  
Bank of Ireland ATM and online systems fail BBC X                  
Ireland Must End Its `Trust-Me' Banking Kotlikoff X                  
Ireland is no Island Price X                  
                       
USA                      
Consumer credit jumps by most in more than 2 years AP X                  
                       
Consumer credit jumps by most in more than 2 years AP     X              
Warning: Muni Bond Chaos Imminent Weiss       X            
The Municipal Bond Pitch: 'What You're Giving Me is Pure Bulls**t' Sheehan       X            
Year-End Flood of Muni Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity for U.S. Wealthy Bloomberg       X            
Schwarzenegger Proposes $9.9B In Cuts CBCLA       X            
States Face Budget Gaps in Billions WSJ       X            
Few companies spin results like Bob Kelly's Bank of NY Mellon Cains           X        
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Hiring Plans Pick Up Across Globe WSJ   X                
Manpower Bloomberg   X                
Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages WSJ     X              
China May Raise Interest Rates This Weekend: Report Reuters             X      
China Outstrips Fed With Liquidity Risking 2011 Inflation Spike Bloomberg             X      
IFR-China property developers widen net in scramble for funding Reuters             X      
Growing signs of China crisis Australian             X      
Obama Question You Tube                 X  
                       
REMAINING
Farmland is a Growing Real Estate Asset NBR                   31
Why farmland is skyrocketing Des Moines                   31
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Debunking Bernanke’s Myth Merk                    
Fed’s Lacker Warns QE2 Carries Risks WSJ                    
Sense and nonsense in the quantitative easing debate VOX                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
The Perils of Bailouts Bear's Lair                    
Then and now: Budget cuts during the Great Depression Daily UW                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
10 reasons to shun stocks till banks crash Farrell                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
The Philippines plans second peso global next year Finance Asia                    
Euro Crisis Dims Asian Currency Dream NY Times                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-08-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

Euro collapse 'possible' amid deepening divisions over bail-out Telegraph

"The general consensus is that sooner or later they fail (Currency Unions) for one reason or another – but that doesn't mean to say it always happens."

 

IMF calls for ‘comprehensive’ euro solution  FT

 

Shrinking Euro Union Seen by Creditors Who Cried for Argentina BL

 

EU Rules Out Immediate Aid Boost, Banks on ECB to Fight Crisis BL

 

Mixed Signals On Euro As Options, Speculative Bets Diverge WSJ

 

No escape from Europe’s debt crisis FT

 

A World Without Europe NYT

 

Some European Countries Are Bankrupt: Jim Rogers CNBC

 

Statistics on payment and settlement systems in selected countries BIS

 

Deleveraging is changing attitudes to sovereign risk  FT

IRELAND

Ireland's 'morbidly obese cats' and runaway public sector pay Guardian

Ireland to spare no one in austerity drive Reuters

Bank of Ireland ATM and online systems fail BBC

Ireland Must End Its `Trust-Me' Banking Kotlikoff

Ireland is no Island Price

 

USA

 

 

 

Consumer credit jumps by most in more than 2 years AP FED

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Consumer credit jumps by most in more than 2 years AP FED

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Warning: Muni Bond Chaos Imminent Weiss

 

The Municipal Bond Pitch: 'What You're Giving Me is Pure Bulls**t' Sheehan

 

Year-End Flood of Muni Bonds Creates Buying Opportunity for U.S. Wealthy BL

 

Schwarzenegger Proposes $9.9B In Cuts CBSLA

 

States Face Budget Gaps in Billions  WSJ

 



5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Few companies spin results like Bob Kelly's Bank of NY Mellon Crains

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Hiring Plans Pick Up Across Globe WSJ 

Manpower  BL

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

Fannie, Freddie Pressed on Mortgages  WSJ

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China May Raise Interest Rates This Weekend: Report Reuters

China Outstrips Fed With Liquidity Risking 2011 Inflation Spike BL

IFR-China property developers widen net in scramble for funding Reuters

Growing signs of China crisis Australian


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

Obama Question  You Tube

 

 

 



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Farmland is a Growing Real Estate Asset NBR 

 

Why farmland is skyrocketing Des Moines Register




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Debunking Bernanke’s Myth Merk

Fed’s Lacker Warns QE2 Carries Risks WSJ

Sense and nonsense in the quantitative easing debate VOX

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

The Perils of Bailouts Bear’s Lair


Then and now: Budget cuts during the Great Depression Daily UW

 

MARKET WARNINGS

10 reasons to shun stocks till banks crash Farrell

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

The Philippines plans second peso global next year Finance Asia

 

Euro Crisis Dims Asian Currency Dream NYT

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEDNESDAY

12-08-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.