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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 12-07-10

Last Update: 12/12/2010 05:29 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
EU Rules Out Immediate Aid Boost, Banks on ECB to Fight Crisis Bloomberg X                  
Merkel- No Need to Expand Rescue Fund WSJ X                  
Merkel rejects debt crisis proposals FT X                  
Eurozone ministers set for crisis talks FT X                  
Euro plunges before eurozone ministers' meeting AFP X                  
European Officials Split Over Bailout Fund Increase, EU Bond Bloomberg X                  
IMF urges EU to boost 500bn bail-out fund to stem crisis Telegraph X                  
Default, delusion and deceit - springing the debt trap Bootle X                  
Big bang or endless crisis? Arguments for a big-bang solution to Eurozone problems VOX X                  
Kenneth Rogoff Says Europe `In Denial' on Debt Restructuring Bloomberg X                  
Gideon RachmanNo escape from Europe’s debt crisis FT X                  
                       
ITALY                      
Draghi says Italy needs faster growth FT X                  
                       
VENEZUELA                      
Venezuela's Chavez blames capitalism for deluges Reuters X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Ireland Relies on `Sugar Daddy' for Budget Support: Euro Credit Bloomberg X                  
Irish banks to be forced to sell billions worth of loans Reuters X                  
The roof falls in on Ireland's Millionaires Row Observer X                  
                       
Moody's Cuts Hungary's Credit by Two Grades on Budget Policy Bloomberg         X          
Dimon Profile Misses The Point: Trusting Bankers Is Too Stupid To Try Again Huffington Post           X        
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Companies are making profits faster than they are hiring workers Economist   X                
A Frightening Look At The Labor Market Recovery Huffington Post   X                
The Problem with Men: A Look at Long-term Employment Trends Brookings   X                
China's credit bubble on borrowed time Pritchard             X      
China expands yuan cross-border settlement trial AFP             X      
China triples holding of S Korean government bonds China Daily             X      
China signals year of tightening MW             X      
New IMF White Paper Says Talk of Housing Bubble Overblown China Briefing             X      
Banker warns of bubbles Standard             X      
China Clones, Sells Russian Fighter Jets WSJ                    
The US economy requires realism to beat the slump – not quick fixes King                 X  
Obama, GOP Reach Deal on Taxes WSJ                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fed Chairman Bernanke On The Economy 60 Minutes                    
Fed Avoiding Deflation May Depend on Canadian CPI Experiments Bloomberg                    
The double speak of central bankers MW                    
In Bernanke We Trust? Kass                    
Bernanke 1, inflation hawks 0 Barr                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
WikiLeaks Ready to Release Giant 'Insurance' File if Shut Down Fox                    
The the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order Fabius Maximus                    
The Fed Has a $110 Billion Problem with New Benjamins CNBC                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Jim Rickards- At Least One Swiss Bank Has Started Refusing To Hand Over Physical Gold To Clients BI                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

RSS 

COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-07-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

IRAN

 

ISREAL

 

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

 

EU Rules Out Immediate Aid Boost, Banks on ECB to Fight Crisis  BL

 
European finance ministers ruled out immediate aid for Portugal and Spain or an increase in the 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) crisis fund, counting on European Central Bank bond purchases to calm debt-spooked markets.

 

Merkel- No Need to Expand Rescue Fund WSJ

 

Merkel rejects debt crisis proposals   FT

 

  Eurozone ministers set for crisis talks   FTBrussels meeting comes amid growing signs of discord

 

Euro plunges before eurozone ministers' meeting AFP

 

European Officials Split Over Bailout Fund Increase, EU Bond BL

 

 IMF urges EU to boost 500bn bail-out fund to stem crisis Telegraph

 

Default, delusion and deceit - springing the debt trap Bootle

 

Big bang or endless crisis? Arguments for a big-bang solution to Eurozone problems VOX

 

Kenneth Rogoff Says Europe `In Denial' on Debt Restructuring BL

 

Gideon RachmanNo escape from Europe’s debt crisis  FT

 

ITALY

Draghi says Italy needs faster growth  FT

FRANCE

 

UK

 

VENEZUELA

Venezuela's Chavez blames capitalism for deluges Reuters

IRELAND

Ireland Relies on `Sugar Daddy' for Budget Support: Euro Credit BL

Irish banks to be forced to sell billions worth of loans Reuters

The roof falls in on Ireland's Millionaires Row Observer

JAPAN

 

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

Moody's Cuts Hungary's Credit by Two Grades on Budget Policy BL

6-BANKING CRISIS II


Dimon Profile Misses The Point: Trusting Bankers Is Too Stupid To Try Again HP

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Companies are making profits faster than they are hiring workers Economist

A Frightening Look At The Labor Market Recovery HP

The Problem with Men: A Look at Long-term Employment Trends Brookings

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China's credit bubble on borrowed time Pritchard

China expands yuan cross-border settlement trial AFP

China triples holding of S Korean government bonds China Daily

China signals year of tightening MW

New IMF White Paper Says Talk of Housing Bubble Overblown China Briefing

Banker warns of bubbles Standard

China Clones, Sells Russian Fighter Jets WSJ

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

The US economy requires realism to beat the slump – not quick fixes King

 

Obama, GOP Reach Deal on Taxes  WSJ

 

Obama reached agreement with Republican leaders in Congress on a broad tax package that would extend the Bush-era income tax cuts for two years, reduce worker payroll taxes for one year and give more favorable treatment to business investments.



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

WikiLeaks Ready to Release Giant 'Insurance' File if Shut Down FOX

 

The the future arrives, forcing us to build a new world order Fabiux Maximus

 

The Fed Has a $110 Billion Problem with New Benjamins CNBC

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Jim Rickards- At Least One Swiss Bank Has Started Refusing To Hand Over Physical Gold To Clients  BI

 

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

12-07-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.