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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 12-06-10

Last Update: 12/08/2010 09:21 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU SOVEREIGN CRISIS   X                  
Texas, Ireland and Ten Little Indians Mauldin X                  
EU's Bailout Fund May Be Increased, Reynders Says in a Break With Merkel` Bloomberg X                  
Europe’s leaders at odds over bond plan FT X                  
A hopeless Europe, unable to cope Manchau X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
Spain declares 'state of alarm' over air chaos AP X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
Merkel raised question of German euro membership Irish Times X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
In Ireland, There’s an All-Too-Familiar Gloom NY Times X                  
Ireland's economic troubles don't stop at water's edge Seattle Times X                  
Ireland to speed up shrinking of banks FT X                  
                       
JAPAN                      
14 Signs That America Is Turning Into Japan Or WORSE Comstock X                  
                       
USA                      
Was There A Big Recession Warning Buried Inside This Week's ISM BI X                  
                       
Junk Bond Market `Back Open' as Sales Soar, Spreads Shrink: Credit Markets Bloomberg     X              
Bond fund outflows reflect shift in attitudes FT     X              
As Bonds Flag, Stocks Beckon  WSJ WSJ     X              
Friday Showed More Signs Of A Revolution In The Bond Market BI     X              
Mounting State Debts Stoke Fears of a Looming Crisis NY Times       X            
Big Banks Are Stifling Economic Growth And Taxing Consumers BI           X        
Value Sinking Fastest on Homes Priced Low to Start NY Times                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
U.S. Health Care Costs Since 1980 Big Picture X                  
Private equity’s boom may soon fade FT       X            
Tax Deal Within Reach WSJ                 X  
Newt Gingrich On WikiLeaks- 'Obama Admin So Shallow And Amateurish At National Security It Is Dangerous' BI                 X  
BERNANKE- Growing Inequality Is Destroying America BI                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
For All Intents And Purposes, Bernanke Has Now Launched QE3 BI                    
So That’s Where the Money Went NY Times                    
Groenewegen Bloomberg                    
Taleb CNBC                    
Fed Just Creating Asset Bubbles, Not Stimulus: Ross CNBC                    
America Bails Out A Thankless World Investors                    
Bernanke says QE2 could exceed $600bn FT                    
Inflation Risk Is Low, Fed Says WSJ                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
WikiLeaks fights to stay online FT                    
Internet responds to US and UK government attempts to tighten control Computer Weekly                    
Kicking the Can Noland                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Hedge Funds Decline in November Amid Europe Debt Crisis, Stock Market Drop Bloomberg                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
JP Morgan revealed as mystery copper trader in London Telegraph                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

RSS 

COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-06-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

IRAN

 

ISREAL

 

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

Texas, Ireland and Ten Little Indians Mauldin

 

EU's Bailout Fund May Be Increased, Reynders Says in a Break With Merkel BL

 

Europe’s leaders at odds over bond plan  FT

A hopeless Europe, unable to cope  Manchau

SPAIN

Spain declares 'state of alarm' over air chaos AP

GERMANY

Merkel raised question of German euro membership Irish Times

 IRELAND

In Ireland, There’s an All-Too-Familiar Gloom NYT

Ireland's economic troubles don't stop at water's edge Seattle Times

Ireland to speed up shrinking of banks  FT

JAPAN

14 Signs That America Is Turning Into Japan Or WORSE  Comstock

 

 

 

USA

 

 

Was There A Big Recession Warning Buried Inside This Week's ISM  BI

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Junk Bond Market `Back Open' as Sales Soar, Spreads Shrink: Credit Markets BL

 

Bond fund outflows reflect shift in attitudes  FT

 

As Bonds Flag, Stocks Beckon  WSJ

 

Friday Showed More Signs Of A Revolution In The Bond Market  BI

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Mounting State Debts Stoke Fears of a Looming Crisis NYT


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Big Banks Are Stifling Economic Growth And Taxing Consumers  BI

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Value Sinking Fastest on Homes Priced Low to Start NYT (Norris)


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


U.S. Health Care Costs Since 1980 BIG Picture

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Private equity’s boom may soon fade  FT

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Tax Deal Within Reach  WSJ

 

Newt Gingrich On WikiLeaks- 'Obama Admin So Shallow And Amateurish At National Security It Is Dangerous'  BI

 

BERNANKE- Growing Inequality Is Destroying America  BI



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

For All Intents And Purposes, Bernanke Has Now Launched QE3  BI

 

So That’s Where the Money Went NYT (Morgenson)

Groenewegen BL Video Taleb CNBC

Fed Just Creating Asset Bubbles, Not Stimulus: Ross CNBC

America Bails Out A Thankless World Investors

Bernanke says QE2 could exceed $600bn  FT

Inflation Risk Is Low, Fed Says  WSJ

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

WikiLeaks fights to stay online  FT

 

Whistle-blower site switches domain to Switzerland

 

Internet responds to US and UK government attempts to tighten control  Computer Weekly

 

In the latest move against online criminals, US law enforcement authorities seized 82 websites this week, alleging they distributed illegal copyright or counterfeited material. Among the brand names mentioned in the list of seized domain names are Burberry, Louis Vuitton, Nike and Timberland.

 

Some site owners were quick to move their data to servers outside US influence (including domains managed by Verisign), leaving Twitter messages pointing customers to the new domain.

 

Kicking the Can Noland

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Hedge Funds Decline in November Amid Europe Debt Crisis, Stock Market Drop BL

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

JP Morgan revealed as mystery copper trader in London Telegraph

 
“The story is that they're positioning themselves in front of the ETF”

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

MONDAY

12-06-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.