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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  FRIDAY 12-03-10

Last Update: 12/04/2010 04:04 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
KOREA                      
North Korea May Shell South Before Year-End: Report CNBC                    
                       
EU SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS                      
Trichet to outline ECB response to crisis FT X                  
ECB Extends Special Crisis Measures AP X                  
ECB to keep unlimited liquidity, may hint on bond buys Reuters X                  
Euro gains breathing space but crisis goes on Independ. X                  
IMF head says condition in Europe 'serious Reuters X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
A Spanish Inquisition Forbes X                  
Spain and Ireland turn to privatisation Telegraph X                  
                       
GERMANY                      
German Economy Minister Says Liquidity Not a Cure-All Reuters X                  
German imbalance and European tensions VOX X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Iceland's Bankruptcy-to-Recovery a Model Ireland Won't Follow Bloomberg X                  
                       
Unemployment Rises to 9.8% as U.S. Adds Just 39,00 Jobs Bloomberg X                  
Bank bailout guarantees and public debt VOX   X                
Romania Extends Slump With EU’s 2nd-Biggest GDP Drop BW         X          
Stiglitz on American banks: Undermining the rule of law Economist           X        
Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise a Record 10% Bloomberg                 X  
Distressed Homes in U.S. Sell at Biggest Discount in Five Years Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
U.S. Jobless Claims Increased 26,000 Last Week to 436,000 Bloomberg   X                
High jobless rate streak could break '80s record USAT   X                
Credit Squeeze Threatens to Swell March to Bankruptcy WSJ       X            
`Wave of Defaults' Expected in 2012 as Rates Rise, S&P Says Bloomberg       X            
Senator Conrad NPR                 X  
Simpson Scotsman                 X  
The Moment of Truth Document F-Comm.                 X  
Dead Before Departure Yahoo                 X  
USAT F-Comm.                 X  
Commission breaks charter F-Comm.                 X  
                       
REMAINING                      
Retailers report strong November sales AP                   24
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fed Withholds Collateral Data for $885 Billion in Financial-Crisis Loans Bloomberg                    
Fed May Be `Central Bank of the World' After UBS, Barclays Aid Bloomberg                    
RBS repaid Fed, no longer using Fed schemes Reuters                    
Canadian banks tapped into U.S. emergency loans during meltdown G&M                    
Fed Wealth Grows While Others Drown In Debt Chapman                    
Bailouts for Banks Huffington Post                    
Wall Street Gets Diluted Version of WikiLeaks Baum                    
Fed bails out British banks, but world’s banks bail out US I&B                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Allentown PIMCO                    
Too Big to Succeed Hoenig                    
America's debt is greatest threat to security Telegraph                    
                       
FLASH CRASH                      
Stock market 'flash' crashes now predictable, thanks to Cornell-developed metric Cornell                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
AAII: Small investors pouring into stocks Prag Cap                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
The Day the Dollar Died You Tube                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-03-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

KOREA

 

North Korea May Shell South Before Year-End: Report Reuters


1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

 

Trichet to outline ECB response to crisis  FT

 

ECB Extends Special Crisis Measures AP

 

ECB to keep unlimited liquidity, may hint on bond buys Reuters

 

Euro gains breathing space but crisis goes on Independent

 

IMF head says condition in Europe 'serious Reuters

SPAIN

A Spanish Inquisition Forbes

 

Spain and Ireland turn to privatisation Telegraph

 

GERMANY

German Economy Minister Says Liquidity Not a Cure-All Reuters

 

German imbalance and European tensions VOX

IRELAND

Iceland's Bankruptcy-to-Recovery a Model Ireland Won't Follow BL
“Senior bondholders in some countries must accept that they may have to take haircuts or participate in restructurings. It just doesn’t add up otherwise; senior bondholders will need to participate. There is no avoiding it.”

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

FRIDAY, Dec. 3
8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Nov. 39,000 155,000 172,000
8:30 am Unemployment rate Nov. 9.8% 9.6% 9.6%
8:30 am Average hourly earnings Nov. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
10am ISM nonmanufacturing Nov. 55.0% 55.0% 54.3%
10 am Factory orders Oct. -0.9% -1% 3%

 

 

Unemployment Rises to 9.8% as U.S. Adds Just 39,00 Jobs BL BLS

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Bank bailout guarantees and public debt VOX

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

Romania Extends Slump With EU’s 2nd-Biggest GDP Drop BW

6-BANKING CRISIS II


Stiglitz on American banks: Undermining the rule of law Economist

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Rise a Record 10% BL NAR

 

Distressed Homes in U.S. Sell at Biggest Discount in Five Years BL

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


U.S. Jobless Claims Increased 26,000 Last Week to 436,000 BL

High jobless rate streak could break '80s record USAT

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Credit Squeeze Threatens to Swell March to Bankruptcy WSJ

 

`Wave of Defaults' Expected in 2012 as Rates Rise, S&P Says BL

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Senator Conrad  NPR

 
“We are borrowing 40 cents of every dollar that we spend in this country. That is not sustainable.”

 

Simpson

 

“Debt denial has gone the way of the dodo"

The Moment of Truth Document F-Commission

 

Dead Before Departure

 

USAT

“They almost certainly won't get the needed votes...”

 

Commission breaks charter Fiscal Commission

“A vote on the approval of a final report is required not later than December 1, 2010.”



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

Retailers report strong November sales AP

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Fed Withholds Collateral Data for $885 Billion in Financial-Crisis Loans BL
“The spirit of Dodd-Frank was not respected, and they used the vagueness in the wording of the law to weasel out of fulfilling their duty to the American people.”

Fed May Be `Central Bank of the World' After UBS, Barclays Aid BL
“We’re talking about huge sums of money going to bail out large foreign banks”

RBS repaid Fed, no longer using Fed schemes Reuters

Canadian banks tapped into U.S. emergency loans during meltdown G&M

Fed Wealth Grows While Others Drown In Debt Chapman 

Bailouts for Banks  Huffington Post

Wall Street Gets Diluted Version of WikiLeaks Baum

Fed bails out British banks, but world’s banks bail out US I&B

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Allentown PIMCO (Gross)

 

Too Big to Succeed Hoenig

 

 America's debt is greatest threat to security Telegraph

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

Stock market 'flash' crashes now predictable, thanks to Cornell-developed metric Cornell

 

MARKET WARNINGS

AAII: Small investors pouring into stocks via PragCap

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

The Day the Dollar Died YouTube

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

12-03-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.