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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  THURSDAY 12-02-10

Last Update: 12/02/2010 08:01 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Europe's Crisis Widens WSJ X                  
US Ready to Back Bigger EU Stability Fund: Official CNBC X                  
U.S. Treasury: No talks now on bigger EU fund MW X                  
Euro crisis worries spread, U.S. to send envoy Reuters X                  
PIGS CDS Maoxian X                  
EMU requires 'nuclear response' Telegraph X                  
Why European debt defaults are necessary Salmon X                  
Euro Crisis Threatens Financial Armageddon III IB Times X                  
                       
PORTUGAL                      
Portugal banks face 'intolerable' risk unless austerity measures are implemented Telegraph X                  
Portugal May Be Cut by S&P... Bloomberg X                  
                       
SPAIN                      
Only one of the PIIGS matters. S is for Spain Monica X                  
Spain to Sell Stake in State Lottery, Eliminate Jobless Benefit Bloomberg X                  
Spain to sell stake in lucrative state lottery FT X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Irish, Greek defaults will reshape Europe Rubin X                  
Ireland's debt servitude Pritchard X                  
The Irish Banking Crisis: A Parable Harvard X                  
Animated Video Huffington Post X                  
                       
USA                      
U.S. May See a Double-Dip Recession, 10% Unemployment Next Year, UN Says Bloomberg X                  
Eight million consumers stop using credit cards CNN X                  
                       
Eurozone bail-out fund to issue bonds FT   X                
US States Face More Financial Stress: Official Report AP       X            
Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbs on Residential Projects Bloomberg                 X  
2nd Leg of Home Price Declines Underway Zacks                 X  
House Prices - Tip of Iceberg of Housing Market Woes N Trust                 X  
Foreclosures: Still in Limbo Global Insightts                 X  
The Foreclosure Pileup: More Bad News for the US Economy Huffington Post                 X  
                       
                       
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Employers in U.S. Announce Most Job Cuts in Eight Months, Challenger Says Bloomberg   X                
Bernanke worries slow economy limiting job growth AP   X                
Unemployment checks to 2 million to stop by the end of December USAT   X                
State Street to cut 1,400 jobs in reorganization AP   X                
BarCap to cut hundreds of jobs as revenues fall FT   X                
Smaller Firms Still Hesitant to Hire WSJ   X                
Tax Cuts Likely to Be Extended Temporarily WSJ                 X  
In Tax Cuts, the Options Run Short NY Times                 X  
Obama debt panel delays final vote CNN                 X  
Is Congress making money off advance economic knowledge? WT                 X  
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
European banks took big slice of Fed aid FT                    
Fed reveals global extent of its backing FT                    
Fed loan details FT                    
Federal Reserve documents FT                    
Fed Names Recipients of $3.3 Trillion in Aid During Crisis Bloomberg                    
Fed To Release Details On Lending Programs Wednesday - Senator Dow Jones                    
Fed Survey: Growth Picks up in Most Places AP                    
IMF Expects to Double Lending Capacity WSJ                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Sunspot Analyst' Sees Major Military Conflict in 2012 CNN                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Commodities daily- Falling shipping rates mask truth FT                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Dollar Proves Best-Returning Asset in November, Defies Skeptics Bloomberg                    
Volcker Says Dollar's Role in Danger as U.S. Influence Declines Bloomberg                    
Overseas money floods Chinese property market China Daily                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
The Day the Dollar Died You Tube                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





12-02-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Europe's Crisis Widens WSJ

 
A paradox of the debt crisis is that the 16-nation euro zone, as a whole, has a budget deficit of around 6% of GDP and total public debts of around 84% of GDP. While not exactly low...that is healthier than in the U.S., which is running a budget deficit of over 11% and has total debts of around 92% of GDP.

 

US Ready to Back Bigger EU Stability Fund: Official CNBC

 

U.S. Treasury: No talks now on bigger EU fund MW

 

Euro crisis worries spread, U.S. to send envoy Reuters

 

PIGS CDS Maoxian

 

Click to Enlarge

 

EMU requires 'nuclear response'  Telegraph

 
“Once Spain needs assistance, the support of the ECB will be critical.”

 

Why European debt defaults are necessary Salmon Default Fears

 

Euro Crisis Threatens Financial Armageddon III IBTimes

 

PORTUGAL

Portugal banks face 'intolerable' risk unless austerity measures are implemented Tele  

Portugal May Be Cut by S&P... BL

SPAIN

Only one of the PIIGS matters. S is for Spain La Monica

 

Spain to Sell Stake in State Lottery, Eliminate Jobless Benefit BL

 Spain to sell stake in lucrative state lottery FT

 

IRELAND

Irish, Greek defaults will reshape Europe Rubin

Ireland's debt servitude Pritchard

The Irish Banking Crisis: A Parable Harvard

 Animated Video  Huffington Post

JAPAN

 

 

USA

 

 

 

U.S. May See a Double-Dip Recession, 10% Unemployment Next Year, UN Says BL

 

Eight million consumers stop using credit cards CNN

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Eurozone bail-out fund to issue bonds  FT

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

US States Face More Financial Stress: Official Report AP NASBO


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II



7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Construction Spending in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbs on Residential Projects BL

 

2nd Leg of Home Price Declines Underway Zacks

 

House Prices - Tip of Iceberg of Housing Market Woes NTrust

 

Foreclosures: Still in Limbo Global Insight

 

The Foreclosure Pileup: More Bad News for the US Economy HP


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Employers in U.S. Announce Most Job Cuts in Eight Months, Challenger Says BL

Bernanke worries slow economy limiting job growth AP

Unemployment checks to 2 million to stop by the end of December USAT

State Street to cut 1,400 jobs in reorganization   AP

BarCap to cut hundreds of jobs as revenues fall  FT

Smaller Firms Still Hesitant to Hire  WSJ

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Tax Cuts Likely to Be Extended Temporarily  WSJ

 

In Tax Cuts, the Options Run Short NYT (Leonhardt)

 

Obama debt panel delays final vote CNN

 

Is Congress making money off advance economic knowledge? WT



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

European banks took big slice of Fed aid  FT

 

Fed reveals global extent of its backing  FT

 

Fed loan details  FT

 

Federal Reserve documents  FT


Fed Names Recipients of $3.3 Trillion in Aid During Crisis BL FED

Fed To Release Details On Lending Programs Wednesday - Senator Dow Jones

Fed Survey: Growth Picks up in Most Places AP BBook

IMF Expects to Double Lending Capacity  WSJ

The IMF expects to double its lending capacity to $450 billion over the next few months, giving it additional firepower to deal with the sovereign-debt crisis engulfing Europe.


 

 GENERAL INTEREST

'Sunspot Analyst' Sees Major Military Conflict in 2012 CNN

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Commodities daily- Falling shipping rates mask truth  FT

 

CURRENCY WARS

Dollar Proves Best-Returning Asset in November, Defies Skeptics BL

Volcker Says Dollar's Role in Danger as U.S. Influence Declines BL

 

Overseas money floods Chinese property market China Daily

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

The Day the Dollar Died YouTube

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK



"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself. This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

 Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


"We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts"

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble before Bundestag
EU rescue costs start to threaten Germany itself - Telegraph


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

THURSDAY

12-02-10

DECEMBER

S M T W T F S
      1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31  

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.