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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 11-20-10

Last Update: 11/22/2010 04:23 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario for European Debt CNBC                    
Special Report: Greece 2011 Budget Scotia                    
As Ireland Nears Bailout, Portugal Waits in Wings NY Times                    
Analysis - No end in sight for Spanish bank pain Reuters                    
                       
IRELAND                      
Ireland takes hardline stance on corporation tax as bailout talks begin Guardian                    
Ireland paves the way for bail-out FT                    
Ireland aid plan due next week as spread fears persist Reuters                    
The Texas Fix Is Unlikely for Ireland NY Times                    
Ireland nears bailout deal, but EU debt woes persist G&M                    
Ireland's economy - Threadbare Economist                    
Ireland- A punt too far FT                    
Anglo Irish bondholders agree new terms FT                    
Ireland Crisis May Give China Break It Seeks Simon Johnson                    
USA                      
                       
California Sells Build America Bonds at Yields Higher Than Some Corporates Bloomberg       X            
Pimco Said to Seek $1 Billion to Buy Troubled Assets From Banks Bloomberg           X        
Prime Mortgage Foreclosures Hit Record as Unemployment Hurts Finances Bloomberg                 X  
Housing will remain depressed despite what government tries to Barrons                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
House fails to extend unemployment benefits CNN   X                
Few New Businesses, With Even Fewer Jobs WSJ   X                
What happens if Chinese growth slows? Pettis             X      
China to Raise Reserve Ratio by 50 Basis Points From Nov. 29 Bloomberg             X      
Chinese consumers blame US as prices spiral up AFP             X      
Inside China's housing bubble Leonard             X      
REMAINING                      
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Remarks by Chairman Bernanke on emerging from the crisis FED                    
                       
BERNANKE 'REBALANCING' SPEECH                      
Speech by Chairman Bernanke on rebalancing the global recovery FED                    
Bernanke Translated WSJ                    
                       
Bernanke Steps Up Stimulus Defense... Bloomberg                    
Fed takes wrong course Washington Times                    
The Federal Reserve and the Pathology of Power Smith                    
Confidence in Fed has rarely been higher Nutting                    
Fed’s Plosser: QE2 Benefits May Not Outweigh Costs WSJ                    
A Look Inside the Fed’s Balance Sheet WSJ                    
Geithner Warns Republicans Against Politicizing the Fed Bloomberg                    
The Fed's Bipolar Mandate WSJ                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST                      
As things fell apart, nobody paid much attention Jim Q                    
Tea Party, Bond Vigilantes, Revolt AgainstFed's QE-2 Plot Dorsch                    
Analyst to rival Moody’s and S&P with own rating agency FT                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Why The Stock Market Is Vulnerable Comstock                    
Bullish Sentiment Sees Largest Drop in Nearly Two Years BeSpoke                    
Faber Says U.S. Stocks Won't Reach New High in Near Term Faber                    
Stocks: Cheaper than March-09? Ticker Sense                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
China blasts US congressional report on currency Reuters                    
                       
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
It's Not Just The West Buying Gold US Funds                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

RSS 

COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





11-20-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario for European Debt CNBC

 

GREECE

Special Report: Greece 2011 Budget Scotia

 

PORTUGAL

As Ireland Nears Bailout, Portugal Waits in Wings NYT

SPAIN

Analysis - No end in sight for Spanish bank pain Reuters

 

IRELAND

Ireland takes hardline stance on corporation tax as bailout talks begin Guardian
Dublin tells EU and IMF that lowest rate in any major European economy is 'non-negotiable'

Ireland paves the way for bail-out  FT
EU/IMF rescue to involve €15bn of cuts and tax increases

Ireland aid plan due next week as spread fears persist Reuters

The Texas Fix Is Unlikely for Ireland NYT (Norris)

Ireland nears bailout deal, but EU debt woes persist G&M

Ireland's economy - Threadbare Economist

Ireland- A punt too far  FT

Anglo Irish bondholders agree new terms  FT

Debt exchange offer requires creditors to share rescue pain

Ireland Crisis May Give China Break It Seeks Simon Johnson

JAPAN

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT


California Sells Build America Bonds at Yields Higher Than Some Corporates  BL 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Pimco Said to Seek $1 Billion to Buy Troubled Assets From Banks BL

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 
Prime Mortgage Foreclosures Hit Record as Unemployment Hurts Finances BL

 

Housing will remain depressed despite what government tries to Barrons

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


House fails to extend unemployment benefits CNN

Few New Businesses, With Even Fewer Jobs  WSJ

Fewer new businesses are getting off the ground in the U.S., available data suggest, a development that could cloud the prospects for job growth and innovation.




13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


What happens if Chinese growth slows? Pettis

China to Raise Reserve Ratio by 50 Basis Points From Nov. 29 BL

Chinese consumers blame US as prices spiral up AFP

Inside China's housing bubble Leonard

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Remarks by Chairman Bernanke on emerging from the crisis FED

BERNANKE "REBALANCING" SPEECH

Speech by Chairman Bernanke on rebalancing the global recovery FED
“As currently constituted, the international monetary system has a structural flaw”

Bernanke Translated WSJ 

Bernanke Steps Up Stimulus Defense... BL

Fed takes wrong course Washington Times

The Federal Reserve and the Pathology of Power Smith

Confidence in Fed has rarely been higher Nutting

Fed’s Plosser: QE2 Benefits May Not Outweigh Costs WSJ

A Look Inside the Fed’s Balance Sheet WSJ

Geithner Warns Republicans Against Politicizing the Fed   BL

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner warned Republicans against politicizing the Federal Reserve and said the Obama administration would oppose any effort to strip the central bank of its mandate to pursue full employment.


The Fed's Bipolar Mandate  WSJ

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

As things fell apart, nobody paid much attention JimQ

 

Tea Party, Bond Vigilantes, Revolt AgainstFed's QE-2 Plot Dorsch

 

Analyst to rival Moody’s and S&P with own rating agency FT (Complete via Google)
“We’re in the process of applying for an NRSRO licence with the intention of being a formal competitor to S&P and Moody’s”
 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Why The Stock Market Is Vulnerable Comstock

Bullish Sentiment Sees Largest Drop in Nearly Two Years BeSpoke

Faber Says U.S. Stocks Won't Reach New High in Near Term Faber

Stocks: Cheaper than March-09? Ticker Sense

G20 MEETING

 

CURRENCY WARS

China blasts US congressional report on currency Reuters
“We urge this so-called commission to stop interfering in China's internal affairs..”

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

It's Not Just The West Buying Gold U.S. Funds PDF File

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion”
Volcker

“We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar or none of this would work"
Volcker


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEEKEND

11-20-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.