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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  FRIDAY 11-19-10

Last Update: 11/20/2010 03:36 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
OECD Reduces World Economic Forecast as Governments Start to Withdraw Aid Bloomberg X                  
European Austerity - Cutting Back WSJ X                  
Massive restructuring of eurozone debt now inevitable Warner X                  
                       
IRELAND                      
Irish Central Banker Sees 'Substantial' EU/IMF Loan Reuters X                  
Ireland set to tap 80bn loan as it opens door to IMF mission Telegraph X                  
Economic crash to drive 100,000 out of Ireland Independ. X                  
Ireland's defiant stand against a bailout shames the bullies in the eurozone Independ. X                  
'Tens of Billions' Seen for Ireland WSJ X                  
EU Plan for Ireland Takes Shape WSJ X                  
Corporate tax threat to Irish industrial policy WSJ X                  
One in 20 Irish mortgages in arrears FT X                  
                       
Japan: Prolonged Stagnation: 2010-12 Economic Outlook Morgan Stanley                    
Crisis looming in US municipal debt market? Whitney   X                
Whalen: California Will Default On Its Debt, Says Tech Ticker   X                
Budget crisis: A timeline SF Gate   X                
California plans to sell almost $14 billion just as the municipal bond market gets pummeled MW   X                
For California, a New Month, a New Deficit Ocala   X                
Mark-to-Make-Believe Perfumes Rotten Loans Weil           X        
Rust Belt Cities Demolish Homes as Defaults Blight Neighborhoods Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
                       
                       
REMAINING                      
Vilsack- Food Costs Won't Surge WSJ                   31
After food, China faces bigger inflation challenge AP                   31
Food Inflation: Less than Meets the Eye Morgan Stanley                   31
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Bernanke Seeks to Reassure Senators WSJ                    
Bernanke not the only one printing money Pollaro                    
Fed’s course calls all hands on deck Markman                    
Fed's jobs goal means misery A Times                    
Bernanke in Big Trouble North                    
S.F. Fed official expects recovery to be a slog SF Chronicle                    
                       
GENERAL INTEREST kasriel                    
I Wonder What Milton Friedman and Karl Brunner Would Say About Allan Meltzer iTulip                    
Door Number Two Revisited ­ Part I: Re-inflation theory and practice Fabius Maximus                    
Regions diverging, tearing the world apart. Birth pangs for a new geopolitical order Smith                    
Wall Street's "Recovery" Leaves Main Street Mugged in the Gutter LA Times                    
Financial crisis panel delays report until January                      
MARKET WARNINGS                      
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
No room for boom as money gushes: RBA Dow Jones                    
The Overvalued Yuan Caixin                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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11-19-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

OECD Reduces World Economic Forecast as Governments Start to Withdraw Aid BL OECD

 

European Austerity - Cutting Back  WSJ

 
AUSTERITY LOOKS BY COUNTRY - VIDEOS OF EACH COUNTRY

 

 

 

Massive restructuring of eurozone debt now inevitable Warner

 

IRELAND

Irish Central Banker Sees 'Substantial' EU/IMF Loan Reuters

Ireland set to tap 80bn loan as it opens door to IMF mission Telegraph

Economic crash to drive 100,000 out of Ireland Independent

Ireland's defiant stand against a bailout shames the bullies in the eurozone Inde

'Tens of Billions' Seen for Ireland  WSJ

A loan of "tens of billions" of euros will be made to Ireland by its European Union counterparts said Patrick Honohan, member of the European Central Bank's governing council and governor of the Central Bank of Ireland.

 

Banks will use any IMF/ECB money as contingent funding which can be shown to investors that Ireland has the "firepower" to deal with its problems, but not necessarily used, and noted that there have been substantial outflows of deposits from Irish banks since April.

 

EU Plan for Ireland Takes Shape  WSJ

Ireland already has said it will commit as much as €50 billion ($67 billion) to put new capital into five wounded banks. Those funds replace money devoured by losses on bad property lending. Ireland says that is enough, but European officials—including some at the European Central Bank—aren't so sure, according to people familiar with the matter.

 

Germany, France and other euro-zone governments have been pressing Ireland to accept help because they fear that the longer Ireland's crisis festers, the greater the risk that investors will also flee the bonds and banks of Portugal and Spain.

 

Dublin is worried that the price of budgetary aid would be a surrender of taxation policy to the IMF and the EU, which has made clear it thinks Ireland's ultra-low corporate tax rate should be raised.

 

Ireland needs to improve the underlying balance of its budget, excluding debt-service costs, by about 12 percentage points of GDP—a turnaround even bigger than Greece needs to achieve in the next few years, according to David Mackie, economist at J.P. Morgan in London. "The Irish journey looks to be the most challenging" of all the euro members which need to repair their budgets, Mr. Mackie wrote in a research note.

 

Corporate tax threat to Irish industrial policy  WSJ

 

No measures would damage Irish self-image more than if an Irish government were forced, by its EU partners, to abandon the country’s long-standing policy of keeping taxes on business low. France, Germany and other nations with higher corporate tax rates have always disliked Ireland’s low-tax regime, but they have been unable to change it because taxation, under EU law, remains a matter of national responsibility.

 

Now, with Ireland expected to receive international financial aid because of the desperate condition of its banks, some EU governments sniff an opportunity to extract concessions from Dublin on corporate tax. For Ireland’s Fianna Fáil-led government, as well as for opposition parties, this is a non-starter. The low corporation tax rate of 12.5 per cent is universally regarded as a cornerstone of Irish industrial policy. Even Sinn Féin, the hardline nationalist party with a leftwing economic line, felt obliged during Ireland’s 2007 election campaign to exclude from its platform its previous commitment to raising corporate taxation.

 

The reasons for Ireland’s diehard defence of low business taxes are not purely economic. When Irish voters backed the EU’s Lisbon treaty on institutional reform in an October 2009 referendum, they did so partly because their government had won a cast-iron promise from other EU governments that the treaty left intact Ireland’s sovereignty in matters of taxation.

 

This promise was instrumental in converting Ireland’s rejection of the treaty in a 2008 referendum, by a margin of 53.4 to 46.6 per cent, into an overwhelming Yes vote of 67.1 to 32.9 per cent. It was not the only guarantee of sovereignty that Ireland negotiated with its EU partners – others covered neutrality, family law and the right to retain a European Commission seat – but it played its part in deflating the “No” campaign in 2009.

 

External pressure to raise corporation tax would therefore be politically explosive in Ireland.

One in 20 Irish mortgages in arrears  FT

JAPAN

Japan: Prolonged Stagnation: 2010-12 Economic Outlook Morgan Stanley

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

FRIDAY, Nov. 19
  None scheduled        

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Crisis looming in US municipal debt market? Whitney

 

 

Whalen: California Will Default On Its Debt, Says Tech Ticker 

 

Budget crisis: A timeline SF Gate

 

California plans to sell almost $14 billion just as the municipal bond market gets pummeled  MW

 

For California, a New Month, a New Deficit Ocala

 

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Mark-to-Make-Believe Perfumes Rotten Loans Weil
Just when it looked like U.S. banks were starting to reveal the true values of their loans, it turns out there’s an accounting loophole they can exploit to keep bad news buried.

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Rust Belt Cities Demolish Homes as Defaults Blight Neighborhoods BL

 

 10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Vilsack- Food Costs Won't Surge  WSJ

 

After food, China faces bigger inflation challenge AP

 

Food Inflation: Less than Meets the Eye Morgan Stanley

 

Commodity food prices are soaring and will soon start to push up food costs for consumers; many commodity quotes are up 20-65% over the past six months. But we estimate that the translation from commodity to retail price hikes will only be about 2-3%, and that the direct impact on overall inflation will amount to just 0.2-0.3%.

...

From farm to table: Much smaller increases: Four factors typically mute the translation of commodity to finished food prices: raw material costs are a fraction of the price of finished foods; sellers partially absorb commodity costs in their margins; when feedgrain quotes jump, meat prices plunge as herds are slaughtered; and consumers will substitute cheaper foods for more expensive ones.

Modest upside risks to food and overall inflation: A weaker dollar and increased excess demand would hike food quotes further. In turn, further commodity price hikes likely will sustain higher inflation expectations, perhaps pushing up overall inflation by more than we expect. But we see little chance that rising food quotes will soon contribute to an upside breakout.

Eating more processed food actually insulates America from price volatility.

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Bernanke Seeks to Reassure Senators WSJ
According to Shelby, Bernanke told the group the bond-purchase program would create between 700,000 and 1 million jobs over the next two years.

Bernanke not the only one printing money Pollaro

Fed’s course calls all hands on deck Markman

Fed's jobs goal means misery ATimes 

Bernanke in Big Trouble North

S.F. Fed official expects recovery to be a slog SF Chronicle

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

I Wonder What Milton Friedman and Karl Brunner Would Say About Allan Meltzer Kasriel

 

Door Number Two Revisited ­ Part I: Re-inflation theory and practice iTulip

 

Regions diverging, tearing the world apart. Birth pangs for a new geopolitical order FMaximus

 

Wall Street's "Recovery" Leaves Main Street Mugged in the Gutter   Smith

 

Financial crisis panel delays report until January LAT

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

G20 MEETING

 

CURRENCY WARS

No room for boom as money gushes: RBA Dow Jones

 

The Overvalued Yuan Caixin

 

Comparison between U.S. and China from January 2008 to June 2010

In China,M2money growth was 61 percent from January 2008 to June 2010. And M2 of the dollar grew at 14 percent during the same period. Why should a currency appreciate when it is being printed in faster speed than another one? It is true that China'sGDPgrew faster than the U.S. GDP.

 

But even after adjusting for GDP growth, the spread between M2 growth and GDP in China was 42 percent, versus the spread of 19 percent in US. Using this measure, shouldn't the yuan be devalued by 23 percent relative to the dollar?

 

Let me present two examples that tell a different story:

● The average BMW 3 series sells for US$ 45,000, and for 480,000 yuan in Beijing. The fair exchange rate is 480K/45K=11 yuan/dollar. On this basis, the yuan is 55 percent over-valued based on a BMW car!

● One pint of Ben & Jerry's chocolate ice cream sells for 60 yuan in Beijing, and US$ 3.89 in New York. Nominal exchange rates are 60/3.89=15 yuan/dollar. Versus the nominal exchange rate of 6.85, the yuan is 150 percent of over-valued based on ice cream!

Many identical goods and services are more expensive in Beijing than in New York.

Besides ice cream and cars, the calculating the real exchange rate would require the inclusion of many other types of goods and services. But the items that are included in the basket, and how the sampling is drawn – can all be easily contested. The calculation of a fair exchange rate based on a PPP that economists from both sides of the Pacific can agree upon is really anyone's game.

 

Government interventions bring unnecessary deadlock on an issue that could easily be solved in the marketplace. The best mechanism to determine exchange rate policy is for the market to decide by supply and demand.

 

However, in an era of greater regulation and intervention, it seems we will only have to sit through more squabbling between various governments.

 

 

 

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion”
Volcker

“We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar or none of this would work"
Volcker


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

11-19-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
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7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.