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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

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Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 11-16-10

Last Update: 11/17/2010 05:58 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Eurozone members pressed on debt plans FT X                  
Europe’s Monetary Cordon Sanitaire Project Syndicate X                  
Greece's budget deficit worsens BBC X                  
Portuguese hint at euro exit as cost of debt soars Irish Independent X                  
Portugal warns on bail-out risk FT X                  
IMF Says More Time Is Needed to Gauge Iceland Debt-Relief Impact Bloomberg X                  
Thomson Says Irish Bailout Will Lead to `Domino Effect' Bloomberg X                  
Ireland Talks With EU as Germany Pushes It to Take Bailout Bloomberg X                  
Ireland mull asking for money for banks, not state - report Reuters X                  
The slaying of the Celtic Tiger G&M X                  
Dublin warned over ECB liquidity FT X                  
                       
USA                      
U.S. Producer Prices Rose 0.4% in October; Core Rate Fell 0.6% Bloomberg X                  
U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index Increased to 16 in November Bloomberg X                  
Industrial production was unchanged in October... Fed X                  
                       
European bond market meltdown Mish   X                
Greenspan: High deficits could spark bond crisis Reuters     X              
Treasury yields rise alongside dollar FT     X              
Bad timing: California seeks bond buyers amid rout in muni market LA Times       X            
iShares S&P Municipal Bond ETF StockCharts       X            
George Gilder- California's Destructive Green Jobs Lobby WSJ       X            
Bank of America Is in Deep Trouble, and There May Be Financial Disaster on the Horizon AlterNet           X        
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
The Fannie Mae Republicans WSJ     X              
Low yields lure blue chips to US corporate bond market FT       X            
China May Surpass U.S. by 2020 in `Super Cycle,' Standard Chartered Says Bloomberg             X      
Banks halt credit for property firms Shanghai Daily             X      
China's 'State Capitalism' Sparks Global Backlash               X      
Pigs Fly as Washington Faces Up to Deficit Hassett                 X  
We Must Work to Avoid Greek Scenario: Rep. Ryan CNBC                 X  
Federal Workers Making Over $180,000 Increase By 2,000% In Past Five Years ZH                 X  
Summers- China Is 'Central Challenge' WSJ                 X  
                       
REMAINING                      
More about rising food prices... Fabius Maximus                   31
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Fresh Attack on Fed Move WSJ                    
Who needs dollars when we have gold? MSN (Fleck)                    
QE2 and Last Rites for the World's Reserve Currency Whitney                    
Why the Fed Cannot Regulate ‘Systemic Risk’ Pollock                    
QE Working? Bloomberg                    
In Defense of Ben Bernanke Binder                    
Lacker: Fed May Need to Increase Rates... Bloomberg                    
Of Course The Fed's Plan Won't Work -- We're Deleveraging! Shilling                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Viene la tormenta, part II Price                    
Experts weigh in: Can the economy be saved? LA Times                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
The Cliff Hussman                    
Stocks Beat Junk by Most Since 1999 Amid Fund Flight Bloomberg                    

G20 MEETING

                     
G-20 flops as Europe and China panic Minyanville                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
The Plaza Accord Worked! Asia Sentinel                    
Taiwan’s Blunt FX Interventions WSJ                    
Asia-Pacific leaders promise to refrain from competitive currency devaluation Kyodo                    
                       
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Fraud and complicity are now the lifeblood of the status quo ZH                    
It's the "great bank robbery" Washington Blog                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
David Icke - We Have The Power to Bring Down The Pyramid! Economic Edge                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





11-16-10

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Eurozone members pressed on debt plans  FT

Finance ministers turn spotlight on Ireland and Portugal

 

Europe’s Monetary Cordon Sanitaire Project Syndicate

 

GREECE

Greece's budget deficit worsens BBC

 

PORTUGAL

Portuguese hint at euro exit as cost of debt soars Irish Independent
Portugal may confront "a scenario of exit from the euro-zone"

 

Portugal warns on bail-out risk  FT

 

ICELAND

IMF Says More Time Is Needed to Gauge Iceland Debt-Relief Impact BL

IRELAND

Thomson Says Irish Bailout Will Lead to `Domino Effect'  BL

Ireland Talks With EU as Germany Pushes It to Take Bailout BL

Ireland mull asking for money for banks, not state - report Reuters

The slaying of the Celtic Tiger G&M

Dublin warned over ECB liquidity FT

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Tuesday, Nov. 16
8:30 am Producer price index Oct. 0.4% 0.7% 0.4%
8:30 am Core PPI Oct. -0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
9:15 am Industrial production Oct. 0.0% 0.2% -0.2%
10 am Home builders' index Nov. 16 16 15

 

 

U.S. Producer Prices Rose 0.4% in October; Core Rate Fell 0.6% BL BLS

 

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index Increased to 16 in November BL

Industrial production was unchanged in October... FED

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

European bond market meltdown – Mish

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Greenspan: High deficits could spark bond crisis Reuters
“We've got to resolve this issue before it gets forced upon us”

 

Treasury yields rise alongside dollar  FT

Biggest jump in ten-year yields since August

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Bad timing: California seeks bond buyers amid rout in muni market  LA Times

 

Yet another way the California Legislature has stuck it to taxpayers: The long delay on a budget agreement this year also delayed the state’s plans to raise cash in the municipal bond market.

 

Now, Treasurer Bill Lockyer is trying to get investors to buy $14 billion in debt amid a broad sell-off in the bond market overall, and the worst sell-off in many tax-free muni bonds since the financial crash of late-2008.

 

That will mean higher interest rates on the debt than the state would have paid two months ago.

 

Lockyer on Monday launched the biggest portion of the debt sale: a $10-billion offering of short-term revenue anticipation notes, or RANs. The two series of notes, one maturing May 25, 2011 and the other June 28, will raise cash for the state to tide it over until tax revenue arrives in winter and spring

 

The surge in long-term bond yields in general over the last week is certain to boost what the state pays on its bonds compared with what the market was demanding earlier this fall.

 

iShares S&P Municipal Bond ETF StockCharts

 


 

George Gilder- California's Destructive Green Jobs Lobby  WSJ

 

California officials acknowledged last Thursday that the state faces $20 billion deficits every year from now to 2016. At the same time, California's state Treasurer entered bond markets to sell some $14 billion in "revenue anticipation notes" over the next two weeks. Worst of all, economic sanity lost out in what may have been the most important election on Nov. 2—and, no, I'm not talking about the gubernatorial or senate races.

 

This was the California referendum to repeal Assembly Bill 32, the so-called Global Warming Solutions Act, which ratchets the state's economy back to 1990 levels of greenhouse gases by 2020. That's a 30% drop followed by a mandated 80% overall drop by 2050. Together with a $500 billion public-pension overhang, the new energy cap dooms the state to bankruptcy.

 

Many of these green companies, behaving like the public-service unions they resemble, diverted some of their government subsidies into the AB 32 campaign for more subsidies. Virtually every new venture investment proposal harbors a "green" angle that turns it from a potential economic asset into a government dependent.

 

Republicans may delude themselves that the U.S. can undertake a costly, inefficient and disruptive transformation of the energy economy, estimated by the International Energy Agency to cost some $45 trillion over 40 years, while meeting our global military challenges and huge debt overhang. But the green campaign wastes scarce and precious technological and entrepreneurial resources indispensable to the nation's future.


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Bank of America Is in Deep Trouble, and There May Be Financial Disaster on the Horizon  AlterNet

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT




13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

The Fannie Mae Republicans WSJ

 

A major task for the next Congress will be rewriting the laws governing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and House Republicans have now won a seat at that table. Which makes it all the more important that their seat not be occupied by Members who were once powerful defenders of the toxic mortgage twins.

 

These days, everyone—even Barney Frank—claims to want to reform Fannie and Freddie. Most Republicans now sound like these columns did for more than a decade, assailing the companies for their systemic risk to the financial system after taxpayers have had to put up $150 billion, and counting, to maintain them as the walking dead.

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Low yields lure blue chips to US corporate bond market  FT

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China May Surpass U.S. by 2020 in `Super Cycle,' Standard Chartered Says BL

Banks halt credit for property firms Shanghai Daily
China’s four biggest banks have stopped extending new credit to developers for the rest of the year...

China's 'State Capitalism' Sparks Global Backlash WSJ

Since the end of the Cold War, the world's powers have generally agreed on the wisdom of letting market competition—more than government planning—shape economic outcomes. China's national economic strategy is disrupting that consensus.

 

Western anger with China has focused on Beijing's cheap-currency policy; President Obama blasted the practice at the G-20 summit in Seoul last weekend. Mr. Zhu's sprint to the top points to a deeper issue: China's national economic strategy is detailed and multifaceted, and it is challenging the U.S. and other powers on a number of fronts.

 

Central to China's approach are policies that champion state-owned firms and other so-called national champions, seek aggressively to obtain advanced technology, and manage its exchange rate to benefit exporters. It leverages state control of the financial system to channel low-cost capital to domestic industries—and to resource-rich foreign nations whose oil and minerals China needs to maintain rapid growth.

 

"The Chinese have shown that if they have the ability to kill your model and take your profits, they will," says Ian Bremmer, president of New York-based consultancy Eurasia Group. His book, "The End of the Free Market," argues that a rising tide of "state capitalism" led by China threatens to erode the competitive edge of the U.S.

 

According to China's Ministry of Finance, assets of all state enterprises in 2008 totaled about $6 trillion, equal to 133% of annual economic output that year. By comparison, total assets of the agency that controls government enterprises in France, whose dirigiste policies give it one of the biggest state sectors among major Western economies, were €539 billion ($686 billion) in 2008, about 28% of the size of France's economy.





19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Pigs Fly as Washington Faces Up to Deficit Hassett

 

We Must Work to Avoid Greek Scenario: Rep. Ryan CNBC

 

Federal Workers Making Over $180,000 Increase By 2,000% In Past Five Years  ZH

 

 

Summers- China Is 'Central Challenge'  WSJ

White House National Economic Council Director Larry Summers said the U.S. relationship with China will be the "central American challenge" in redeveloping the U.S. economy.




 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

More about rising food prices... Fabius Maximus

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Fresh Attack on Fed Move WSJ
GOP Economists, Lawmakers Call for Abandoning $600 Billion Bond Purchase

Who needs dollars when we have gold? MSN (Fleck)

QE2 and Last Rites for the World's Reserve Currency Whitney

Why the Fed Cannot Regulate ‘Systemic Risk’ Pollock 

QE Working? BL

In Defense of Ben Bernanke Binder

Lacker: Fed May Need to Increase Rates... B Speech

Of Course The Fed's Plan Won't Work -- We're Deleveraging! Shilling

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Viene la tormenta, part II Price

 

 Experts weigh in: Can the economy be saved? LA Times

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

The Cliff Hussman

 

Stocks Beat Junk by Most Since 1999 Amid Fund Flight BL

 

G20 MEETING

G-20 flops as Europe and China panic – Minyanville

 

CURRENCY WARS

The Plaza Accord Worked! Asia Sentinel

 
The US cannot of course dictate to the world as it did in 1972, nor cook up a deal with Europe and Japan as it did with the Plaza Accord. But...

 

Taiwan’s Blunt FX Interventions WSJ

 

Asia-Pacific leaders promise to refrain from competitive currency devaluation Kyodo

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Fraud and complicity are now the lifeblood of the status quo – Zero Hedge

 

It's the "great bank robbery" – Washington's Blog

 

AUDIO / VIDEODavid Icke - We Have The Power to Bring Down The Pyramid! Economic Edge


 
Politicians are now talking austerity for America – adios home mortgage deduction! What is that going to do to the home market and to prices? What will that mean for what’s left of America’s middle class?

Is it necessary? Absolutely not! The national debt does not even need to exist in any form whatsoever, we have been controlled to believe that we owe banks for the use of our own money system! It’s a brainwashing and in this short video David Icke spells it out as to where the power really lies.

The power rests with us!

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion”
Volcker

“We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar or none of this would work"
Volcker


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

11-16-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.