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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

62 pages

 

Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 11-15-10

Last Update: 11/16/2010 05:19 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Europe stumbles blindly towards its 1931 moment Prichard X                  
McDonald's and PepsiCo to help write UK health policy Guardian X                  
Irish Eyes Are Not Smiling! Mauldin X                  
Ireland denies €60bn bail-out talk as EU puts on pressure Telegraph X                  
IMF Says Ireland Can Manage on Its Own Reuters X                  
Strauss-Kahn: IMF ready to help Ireland if asked MW X                  
Ireland's young flee abroad as economic meltdown looms Observer X                  
                       
USA                      
Inventories at U.S. Companies Increase 0.9%, More Than Forecast Bloomberg X                  
Retail Sales Gains Indicate Economy Showing Some Life Reuters X                  
Manufacturing Growth in New York Region Contracts in November Bloomberg X                  
Small Business Accelerates as New Jobs Precede Fed's Easy Money Bloomberg X                  
                       
Credit Fears, Elections Prompt Muni Selloff WSJ     X              
Municipal Bond Market Shudders NY Times     X              
At Ambac, Haves and Have-Nots NY Times     X              
Regulators close 2 Georgia banks, 1 in Arizona AP           X        
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
First, Let's Lower the Bar Mauldin   X                
Chanos: China's treadmill to hell CNN Video             X      
Is China a bargain or a bubble? Independ.             X      
                       
REMAINING                      
Land Becomes Cash Crop in Farm Belt WSJ                   31
Farm Economy Heading for Record Driving Surge in U.S. Cropland Bloomberg                   31
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
The Official Start of QE2 Noland                    
Five myths about the Federal Reserve Wash. Post                    
They Just Don't Get It Kasriel                    
Bernanke, Fed might not be out of their minds after all D&C                    
QE Impact to Permeate 49th Parallel BMO                    
Palin has U.S. central bank in her crosshairs G&M                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Losses double for U.S. Postal Service CNN                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Rydex Cash Flow Ratio Shows Investor Reluctance Swenlin                    
"A New Wall of Worry...." Harding                    
Gary Shilling Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months Bloomberg                    

G20 MEETING

                     
Sarkozy Takes Over G-20 Aiming to `Update' Monetary System Bloomberg                    
U.S. Gets Rebuffed at Divided Summit WSJ                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
How to Make the Dollar Sound Again NYT (Grant)                    
Chinese Renminbi is Going Down not UP! Mauldin                    
China Pledges `Steady' Currency Reform After Obama's Criticism at G-20 Bloomberg                    
Changes aimed at cooling the flow of 'hot money' China Daily                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Why gold is a bad investment MW                    
What Is the Bullion Market Trying to Tell Us? FT                    
Why You Must Own Gold CNBC                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





11-15-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

IRAN

 

ISREAL

 

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Europe stumbles blindly towards its 1931 moment Prichard
It is the European Central Bank that should be printing money on a mass scale to purchase government debt, not the US Federal Reserve.

 

UK

McDonald's and PepsiCo to help write UK health policy Guardian

 

IRELAND

Irish Eyes Are Not Smiling! Mauldin

After noting the rise in suicides and calls to suicide hotlines due to economic pressures on farmers (who are caught in a drought) and foreclosures,  Greg Weldon writes:

 

"... the Irish Central Bank determined that Ireland's financial institutions needed MORE capital, essentially DOUBLING the cost of the original bailout, and obliterating ANY chance for cutting the Budget Deficit in 2010. In fact, according to "The Economist", if we were to include the cost of the financial system bailout, and, consider the decline in GDP ... Ireland's Deficit-to-GDP Ratio, already FOUR TIMES the EU's (allegedly) 'hard-ceiling' of 3%, as just under 12% ... would EXPLODE, to 32% !!!!

"Subsequently, on October 6th Fitch cut their sovereign debt 'rating' for Ireland, to AA-, from A+, in order to ... 'reflect the exceptional and greater-than-expected cost of the nation's bailout of its banking system.'

 

"Then note the 'projected' Deficit when we include the government's increasingly large bailout of the country's financial institutions. Irish eyes are no longer smiling ... rather, Irish eyes are crying.

 

 

"During a debate on Tuesday in the Parliament, Prime Minister Cowen said ...

 

" '... If this country and this parliament fails to make the necessary adjustments, then we put at risk the funding of the State after July of next year and what will happen then is that we will be faced with a situation where we will only be able to spend EUR 31 billion. The State could not go on spending EUR 50 billion a year, when it was only taking in EUR 31 billion. Being only able to spend EUR 31 billion would involve a serious adjustment in the level of (government) services that could be provided. No responsible government, therefore, could contemplate that approach.'

 

"Say what ... no responsible government could contemplate spending what they take in?? Indeed, herein lies the core of the crisis ... to cut spending by the amount needed to 'fix' the fiscal mess that European countries now find themselves facing ... would be so dramatic as to cause INTENSE economic PAIN, enough so to drive even more Irish farmers, policemen, realtors, and plumbers ... to suicide."

 

I have been writing for years that much of Europe was in far worse shape than the US, and we are not in a good way. Irish 5-year bonds now cost 8.44%, up from below 4% in August, just three months ago. Ireland is going to have to finance debt of almost 40% of GDP this year and 20% next year. As they roll over that debt, interest-rate costs are going to skyrocket, making those budget cuts even harder.

 

And the same goes for Greece, Portugal, and Spain. With German Chancellor Angela Merkel having to face elections, she says her goal is to "enforce fiscal discipline in the euro area and avoid putting German taxpayer money on the line in any future bailout." She noted at the G-20 meeting yesterday:

 

"There may be a conflict here between the interests of the financial world and the interests of politicians... We can't constantly explain to our voters that taxpayers have to be on the hook for certain risks rather than those who make a lot of money taking those risks."

 

This is not going to be easy. I expect it to end in tears for some of the more troubled countries. It is all so very sad.

 
Ireland denies €60bn bail-out talk as EU puts on pressure Telegraph

IMF Says Ireland Can Manage on Its Own Reuters

Strauss-Kahn: IMF ready to help Ireland if asked MW

Ireland's young flee abroad as economic meltdown looms Observer

Many young people are seeking to emigrate rather than face a life of hardship as the republic lurches towards financial collapse

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous
MONDAY, Nov. 15
8:30 am Retail sales Oct. 1.2% 0.7% 0.7%
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos Oct. 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
8:30 am Empire state index Nov. -11.1 15.0 15.7
10 am Inventories Sept. 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%

 

Inventories at U.S. Companies Increase 0.9%, More Than Forecast BL Census

Retail Sales Gains Indicate Economy Showing Some Life Reuters  PDF

Manufacturing Growth in New York Region Contracts in November BL

Small Business Accelerates as New Jobs Precede Fed's Easy Money BL

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Credit Fears, Elections Prompt Muni Selloff  WSJ

Investors sold off long-term municipal bonds in the past week, sending a shiver through a normally stable market.

 

WHY: Mid-Term Election Results of  a 'Fiscal Austerity' Voter Mandate

1- Mounting fears about the stability of municipalities' finances,

2- The fate of the Build America Bond program*, and

3- Effects of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying efforts (intent not to buy 30Y UST).

 

*BUILD AMERICA BOND (BAB) PROGRAM

The program was designed as part of the Obama administration's effort to help states, cities and other local government entities borrow in the bond markets and lower financing costs by offering a federal subsidy.

 

The program has been popular. The cheaper borrowing costs on taxable Build America Bonds, or BABs, have meant some borrowers chose to issue BABs instead of their traditional long-term tax exempt municipal bonds. That has cut down on supply of longer-term tax-exempt munis, driving prices higher and yields lower.

 

"It's been absorbing most of the long supply in the muni market," said George Friedlander, managing director and senior municipal market strategist at Citigroup, of the Build America Bond program.

 

The gains for Republicans in this month's midterm elections, market participants say, makes reauthorization of the program less likely.

 

"The threat is if that [the BABs program is] not authorized than all that volume comes back to the tax exempt side," Mr. Friedlander said.

 

 

Municipal Bond Market Shudders NYT

 

At Ambac, Haves and Have-Nots NYT (Morgenson)

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II

 

Regulators close 2 Georgia banks, 1 in Arizona AP FDIC


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


First, Let's Lower the Bar Mauldin

 I follow a few people who are pretty good at predicting the employment numbers (like Philippa Dunne of The Liscio Report). Most were expecting numbers in the 60,000 range. Most unusual for there to be such a big miss from these guys. I read the press release and saw nothing to raise my eyebrows. And then Alan Abelson in Barron's gave us the following, after reciting the headline number:

 

"Happily, the always astute Stephanie Pomboy of MacroMavens provided a quickie explanation:
" 'The seasonal bar which the payroll data must jump was (inexplicably and dramatically) lowered from prior Octobers.
" 'Thus, in October 2009, the BLS set the bar at 870,000 jobs, similar to the 840,000 it anticipated in October 2008. This year, by contrast, it lowered the bar to 768,000. Mumbo, jumbo, payrolls presented "an upside surprise" of 100,000.'
"According to John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, the BLS' fiddling with the figures via what he calls 'seasonal-factor games' actually created 200,000 phantom jobs last month. John cites such finagling as the reason his prediction of an October decline and a rise in the jobless rate was wrong. It also explains why seasonally adjusted payrolls were revised upward by 110,000 in September, including 56,000 in August."

In the opinion of your humble analyst, if they are going to make such changes, they should be announced up-front or noted prominently in the press release. People (foolishly) trade on these numbers and money is made and lost. This is serious stuff.



If there is one thing we know in economics (and there are admittedly distressingly few of them), it is that people respond to incentives, whether intended or unintended. I don't think the writers of the health-care bill intended to increase part-time employees, keep payrolls under 50 employees, or encourage businesses to dump their health insurance or move to outsourcing, etc. But if you are a business person facing budget and sales shortfalls, rising prices, and fierce competition (is there any other kind?), saving $2-3,000 per employee is going to be tempting. When two part-time employees cost $3-6000 a year less than one full-time? What do you choose when the boss is breathing down your neck about expenses? The recent employment data tells me that already businesses are opting for more part-time workers. It doesn't work for every business, but it will for a lot of them. I hope that is not going to be the case, but I want policies that encourage and reward good corporate behavior.



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Chanos: China's treadmill to hell CNN Video

Is China a bargain or a bubble? Independent


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Land Becomes Cash Crop in Farm Belt WSJ

 

Cropland prices jumped in the third quarter in the western Farm Belt amid booming demand for U.S. crops around the world.

 

U.S. farmland prices has +58% since 2000 (inflation-adjusted)

 

LAND PRICES ACCELERATING ON LARGER NUMBERS (Y-o-Y)

 

Irrigated Cropland +9.6%

Non Irrigated Farmland + 6.4%

Ranchland +4.3%

 

US Net Farm Income (Profitablility)  +24% (77.1B)


CROP GROWTH Y-O-Y COMMENTS
Cotton 119% US Cotton Exports +31% - Primarily Chinese Mills
Draining Reserves to 1925 levels
Corn 49%  
Wheat 39% Black Sea Drought
42% more US Wheat Exports
Soybeans 35% Protein Hungary Chinese Middle Class
Chinese taking 1/3 of US Soybean Crop

Result: US Needs to plant +10M Additional Acres (+4%)

 

Farm Economy Heading for Record Driving Surge in U.S. Cropland  BL

While the 17 percent rise in the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials since the end of June reflects higher prices for all commodities, agriculture led the biggest rally since 1972. Cotton prices surged 76 percent to a record, wheat jumped 48 percent and corn reached a two-year high.

 

At a time when the U.S. jobless rate is 9.6 percent and home prices are weakening, this year’s farm income may top the $87.3 billion reached in 2004, while cropland values will rise as much as 10 percent, said Neil Harl, an agricultural economist at Iowa State University and former adviser to the governments of Ukraine and the Czech Republic.

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


The Official Start of QE2 Noland

Five myths about the Federal Reserve WP (Ip)

They Just Don't Get It Kasriel

Bernanke, Fed might not be out of their minds after all D&C

QE Impact to Permeate 49th Parallel BMO

Palin has U.S. central bank in her crosshairs G&M

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Losses double for U.S. Postal Service CNN

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Rydex Cash Flow Ratio Shows Investor Reluctance Swenlin

 

"A New Wall of Worry...." Harding

The bricks in the new wall of worry include:

         Concerns that the Fed’s additional stimulus may cause new problems rather than help the economy by encouraging home purchases or providing new jobs.

         Worries that commodity prices had spiked up into bubbles which may burst, a worry that struck Friday with the big $40 an ounce (3%) plunge in the price of gold, and equally large declines in the price of oil and other important commodities.

         Apprehensions about the activities of the Chinese government, including talk that it might hike interest rates to dramatically slow its globally important economy and ward off threatening excessive inflation in China.

         Anxiety about a potential currency or trade war if the decline in the U.S. dollar continues.

�         Via technical analysis there is also the U.S. market’s intermediate-term overbought condition above 20-week moving averages, and the high level of investor bullishness (which is at levels of complacency often seen at market tops).

�         The uncertainties have even extended to U.S. Treasury bonds, which investors have piled into as a perceived safe haven over the last two years. The safe haven over the last two months has actually been a bet against U.S. Treasury bonds. For instance, the ‘inverse’ ProShares Short 20-year bond etf, symbol TBF, designed to move up when bonds move down, has gained 11% since early September, while bonds have declined 11%.    

 

Gary Shilling Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months BL

G20 MEETING

Sarkozy Takes Over G-20 Aiming to `Update' Monetary System BL

 

U.S. Gets Rebuffed at Divided Summit WSJ

 

CURRENCY WARS

How to Make the Dollar Sound Again NYT (Grant)
Let the economists gasp: The classical gold standard, the one that was in place from 1880 to 1914, is what the world needs now.

 

Chinese Renminbi is Going Down not UP! Mauldin

 


Notice that of China's main trading partners, the US is the only one against whose currency the yuan has risen over the last three months. If you are in the eurozone, you have seen an almost 4% rise.

 

Now look at the next chart. We are comparing the Chinese yuan against the dollar and then against the trade-weighted Chinese yuan. Notice that for the last 18 months the trade-weighted yuan has dropped well over 10%! In terms of real trade with China's real trading partners, the yuan has fallen in value! That is extraodinary.




Expect more calls from around the world for China to allow its currency to rise. And as China has to deal with inflation, it may be in their interest. We will see. But it does make you go "hmmm."

 

China Pledges `Steady' Currency Reform After Obama's Criticism at G-20 BL

 

Changes aimed at cooling the flow of 'hot money' China Daily

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Why gold is a bad investment MW

 

What Is the Bullion Market Trying to Tell Us? FT

 

Why You Must Own Gold CNBC

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“The thought that you can create a prosperous economy by inflating is an illusion”
Volcker

“We sure have to maintain some confidence in the dollar or none of this would work"
Volcker


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

MONDAY

11-15-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

 

 

   

 

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