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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 40 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

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Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

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Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  WEEKEND 11-13-10

Last Update: 11/15/2010 08:50 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Eurozone debt crisis fears ease  FT                   
Brazil's Lula Says World Headed For 'Bankruptcy'...  AFP                   
                       
IRELAND                       
Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis  Bloomberg                   
IMF Ready to Help Ireland, If It Makes Request for Aid, Strauss-Kahn Says  Bloomberg                   
Ireland Stirs Specter of EU Default  WSJ                   
Irish Crisis Demands New EU Response: El-Erian  FT                   
European Ministers Hold Ireland Debt Crisis Talks at G-20  Bloomberg                   
Ireland bailout likely before end-2011: poll  Reuters                   
Germany blamed for Irish debt soar  Telegraph                   
Hope fades for Ireland's fight to keep financial independence  Independ.                   
                       
USA                       
Consumer Sentiment Rises in Early November  Reuters                   
Bullish Sentiment Soars Through The Roof  Prag. Cap.                   
Municipal Bonds Get Crushed  BeSpoke                   
California Muni Bond Fund Shellacking  Ritholtz                   
Three More Banks Fail  WSJ                   
Regional Banks to Get Hit By New Regulations: Whitney  CNBC                   
Home Prices Fall in Nearly Half of U.S. Metro Areas  WSJ                   
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
The Employment Numbers Are A Lot Weaker Than You Think Comstock   X                
China buys up the world Economist             X      
Being eaten by the dragon Economist             X      
Internationalising the RMB or world denomination Finance Asia             X      
China reportedly limiting foreign property buys MW             X      
The Hijacked Commission                    
                       
REMAINING                      
About the coming large rise in food prices Fabius Maximus                   31
Turkey Prices Hit Record Before Thanksgiving on Feed Costs Bloomberg                   31
BP OIL                      
BP Has Paid U.S. More Than $500 Million for Gulf Spill Responses Bloomberg                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Investors Walk Out as the Fed Buys In WSJ                    
QE II Bet Starts to Unravel Mish                    
Fed Efforts to Revive Economy Find Critics NY Times                    
Crossing the Rubicon into the World of QE-2 Dorsch                    
Bernanke's worst nightmare: Ron Paul CNN                    
Littman: Police the Fed Det News                    
easuring the Success of Bernanke's QE II "Virtuous Circle" Mish                    
Alert: QE II Has Lit the Fuse Martenson                    
Media Spins Illusion of Hope and Change Ackerman                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Commodity super-cycle seems to be a runner again FT                    
 Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments Niall Ferguson                    
Recession Shadows America's Middle Class Spiegel                    
Secret Walmart Survey Shows Inflation Already Here CNBC                    
Geopolitical Journey, Part I: The Traveler Stratfor                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Shanghai Composite tumbles 5.2% on rate hike fears MW                    
Metals hammered MW                    
How to invest for the next bubble Jubak                    
Why Dow 11,000 Is Worth a Lot Less Now Than in 2001 Smith                    

G20 MEETING

                     
G20 shuns US on trade and currencies FT                    
U.S. Gets Rebuffed at Divided Summit WSJ                    
Obama Tries to Repair Damage WSJ                    
G-20 Refuses to Back US Push on China's Currency AP                    
China's Hu Urges Responsibility from US Sinchew                    
China's Hu resists pressure from Obama on yuan revaluation WSJ                    
QE2 may have 'catastrophic consequences' for global economy China Daily                    
Bickering Likely to Lame G-20 Summit Spiegel                    
Frenemies? U.S.-China Relations Carnegie                    
Obama Says Fed Move Not an Issue During Talks MW Video                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
The Dollar: Every Man For Himself Merk                    
QE2 may accelerate wane of U.S. dollar as world's reserve currency Xinhua                    
Forex Forecasts EW                    
Geithner Takes A Shot At Greenspan On The Strength Of The Dollar Huffington Post                    
Cash flood may trigger new Asia crisis: HK chief AFP                    
The ‘dollar era’ coming to an end? Voice of Russia                    
Gold: The Market's Global Currency Mises                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
Cisco’s blood is running in the streets Hulbert                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
Quantitative Easing Explained You Tube                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





11-13-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Eurozone debt crisis fears ease  FT

Irish bond market surges after finance ministers reassure investors

 

Brazil's Lula Says World Headed For 'Bankruptcy'... AFP
 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

 

IRELAND

Ireland Urged to Take Aid by Officials Amid Debt Crisis  BL

Ireland is being urged by European policy makers to take emergency aid to contain a debt crisis rattling their markets, according to a person briefed on the discussions.

 

IMF Ready to Help Ireland, If It Makes Request for Aid, Strauss-Kahn Says  BL
The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, its managing director said, as market concern about the country’s debt crisis continues

 

Ireland Stirs Specter of EU Default  WSJ

European leaders' pledge that current bondholders will be spared bailout costs briefly eased fears that Ireland's financial malaise will soon spread to the continent's other weak economies.


Irish Crisis Demands New EU Response: El-Erian FT

European Ministers Hold Ireland Debt Crisis Talks at G-20 BL

Ireland bailout likely before end-2011: poll Reuters

Germany blamed for Irish debt soar Telegraph

Hope fades for Ireland's fight to keep financial independence Independent
The first refinancing of that debt... will not be viable unless yields fall markedly 


JAPAN

 

USA

 

Consumer Sentiment Rises in Early November Reuters

 Bullish Sentiment Soars Through The Roof PragCap
 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Municipal Bonds Get Crushed  BeSpoke

Couple the increased likelihood of an extension of the Bush tax cuts with a new Congress that has at the least put on a front of opposing further bailouts, and you get the kind of municipal bond performance we've seen in recent days.  After drifting lower from late August to early November, the National Municipal Bond ETF (MUB) has tanked this week.  The California Municipal Bond ETF (CMF) has tanked as well.   So far the investment world hasn't paid much attention to this big move lower in the muni-bond market, but it's likely to get coverage soon if the declines continue.

 

 

 California Muni Bond Fund Shellacking  Ritholtz
All Aboard! Munis and California joining Ireland on the default train. Even the general Muni funds have lots of California Exposure







4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Three More Banks Fail  WSJ

Regulators seized two small banks in Georgia and one in Arizona, bringing the total number of bank failures to 146 so far in 2010.


Regional Banks to Get Hit By New Regulations: Whitney CNBC

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Home Prices Fall in Nearly Half of U.S. Metro Areas  WSJ

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


The Employment Numbers Are A Lot Weaker Than You Think Comstock

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China buys up the world Economist 

Being eaten by the dragon Economist

Internationalising the RMB or world denomination Finance Asia

China reportedly limiting foreign property buys MW

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

T

he Hijacked Commission Krugman



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

About the coming large rise in food prices Fabius Maximus
 Rising food prices might be one of the most important geopolitical trends of the decade.

What result do you expect from this combination of factors?

  1. 1- Rising demand for the product.
  2. 2- Inability to increase the key inputs.  All that can be done is investment more into equipment and technology.
  3. 3- Low stockpiles
  4. 4- Low prices (near record low real prices)
  5. 5- Adverse production environment (bad external factors)
  6. 6- Now square the circle:  What will balance supply and demand?

The subject is food, growing crops.  The answer to the question in bullet #6:  rising prices.    Managing this almost  inevitable trend might be one of the major challenges during the next decade.

See the reference page Food – articles about this global crisis.  See these posts about food:

  1. Important news about the global food crisis!, 1 April 2008
  2. A view from Indonesia of the food crisis, 3 April 2008
  3. Stratfor warns about the global food crisis, 18 April 2008
  4. What you probably do not know about China’s food crisis, 21 April 2008
  5. Higher food prices, riots, shortages – what is going on?, 29 April 2008
  6. A modest proposal for solving the global food crisis, 30 April 2008
  7. Weekend reading about the Food Crisis, 17 May 2008
  8. Teach a man to fish, and you understand what we have done wrong in Haiti, 23 May 2008
  9. “Food scares are exaggerated, but good copy for the media”, 28 May 2008
  10. Is global food production peaking?, 13 January 2010
  11. Fertilizer overuse destroying Chinese soil, 18 February 2010
 

Turkey Prices Hit Record Before Thanksgiving on Feed Costs BL
 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 


BP Has Paid U.S. More Than $500 Million for Gulf Spill Responses  BL


   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Investors Walk Out as the Fed Buys In  WSJ

As the Fed began its "QE2" stimulus buying, investors sold off everything from stocks to Treasury bonds and gold. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 2.2% for the week. The Treasury note's yield was pushed up more than 0.20 percentage point for the week.


QE II Bet Starts to Unravel  Mish
A representative of Curve Watchers Anonymous said "I have never seen action like this before. The middle part of the curve is blowing up even as the long bond rallies. The action indicates that everyone who front-ran the Fed purchases is now unloading to the Fed. "

The 5-year is off 14 basis points while the 30-year is up 8. This is quite unusual to say the least.

Fed Efforts to Revive Economy Find Critics NYT (Norris)

Crossing the Rubicon into the World of QE-2 Dorsch

Bernanke's worst nightmare: Ron Paul CNN

Littman: Police the Fed DetNews

easuring the Success of Bernanke's QE II "Virtuous Circle" Mish

Alert: QE II Has Lit the Fuse Martenson

Media Spins Illusion of Hope and Change
Ackerman

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

Commodity super-cycle seems to be a runner again  FT

 

 Fiscal Crises and Imperial Collapses: Historical Perspective on Current Predicaments Niall Ferguson

 

Recession Shadows America's Middle Class Spiegel

 

Secret Walmart Survey Shows Inflation Already Here CNBC

 

Geopolitical Journey, Part I: The Traveler Stratfor

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Shanghai Composite tumbles 5.2% on rate hike fears MW

Metals hammered MW

METALS

GRAINS

How to invest for the next bubble Jubak

 

Why Dow 11,000 Is Worth a Lot Less Now Than in 2001 Smith  Smith 2

G20 MEETING

G20 shuns US on trade and currencies  FT

World leaders set loose timetable and ‘indicative guidelines’

 

U.S. Gets Rebuffed at Divided Summit  WSJ

 

Obama Tries to Repair Damage  WSJ

G-20 Refuses to Back US Push on China's Currency AP

 

China's Hu Urges Responsibility from US  Sinchew

“Major reserve-currency economies must carry out responsible policies and keep their exchange rates relatively stable”

 

China's Hu resists pressure from Obama on yuan revaluation WSJ

That China was emboldened to lecture the US on its currency underscores how it and other countries have emerged from the global economic crisis faster and more strongly than the US. 

 

QE2 may have 'catastrophic consequences' for global economy China D

 

Bickering Likely to Lame G-20 Summit Spiegel

 

Frenemies? U.S.-China Relations Carnegie

 

Obama Says Fed Move Not an Issue During Talks MW Video
 

CURRENCY WARS

The Dollar: Every Man For Himself Merk

QE2 may accelerate wane of U.S. dollar as world's reserve currency Xinhua

 

Forex Forecasts EW

 

Geithner Takes A Shot At Greenspan On The Strength Of The Dollar HP

 

Cash flood may trigger new Asia crisis: HK chief AFP

 

The ‘dollar era’ coming to an end? Voice or Russia

 

Gold: The Market's Global Currency Mises

 

Q3 EARNINGS

Cisco’s blood is running in the streets Hulbert
 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

AUDIO / VIDEO

Quantitative Easing Explained You Tube

 

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"It could unfold very, very quickly. Because deflation is a swing of poverty feedback, it can take awhile to build up. If you try to explain to people what's coming, because it doesn't happen instantly, they tend to go back to sleep. The thing they need to understand, however, is that when it does hit a tipping point, a kind of critical mass, then it can unfold exceptionally quickly. Then it's very much like having the rug pulled out from under your feet. So I tell people all the time, prepare now because it's better to be two years too early than five minutes too late. You can't play with this sort of thing. In September, 2008, we came within a few hours of the banking system seizing up, and that could easily happen again. People wouldn't get a lot of notice. For anyone who's not in the meeting room-it will be too late by the time they find out. My worry is that if there are an enormous number of people who just had the rug pulled out from under their feet, they're going to run around like headless chickens, and the human over-reaction to events will be really responsible for a large percentage of the impact. “

Automatic Earth

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

WEEKEND

11-13-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.