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NOVEMBER ISSUE - 61 PAGES

Integrating Macro Research

& Technical Analytics

Gordon T Long

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READ ALL THE

"EXTEND & PRETEND" SERIES

 

 

Stage I Comes to an End!

 

A Matter of National Security

 

A Guide to the Road Ahead

 

Confirming the Flash Crash Omen

 

Its either RICO Act or Control Fraud

 

Shifting Risk to the Innocent

 

Uncle Sam, You Sly Devil!

 

Is the US Facing a Cash Crunch?

 

Gaming the US Tax Payer

 

Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up

 

Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER 


 

 

 


 

READ ALL THE

"SULTANS OF SWAP"

 

ACT I

Sultans of Swap: Smoking Guns!

 

ACT II

Sultans of Swap: The Sting!

 

ACT III

Sultans of Swap: The Get Away!

 

 

ALSO

SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Gold Swaps Signal the Roadmap Ahead

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"EURO EXPERIMENT" SERIES

 

 

 

EURO EXPERIMENT: German Steel or Schmucks?!

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

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Current Thesis Advisory

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Published November 2009

 

EXTEND & PRETEND

 

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READ ALL THE

"INNOVATION" SERIES

 

Innovate or Die

 

INNOVATION: America has a Structural Problem!

 

INNOVATION: What Made America Great is now Killing Her!

 

America - Innovate or Die!

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 


 

 

 

READ ALL THE

"PRESERVE & PROTECT" SERIES

 

 

 

 

FOR UPCOMING SHOW TIMES SEE: COMMENTARY READER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

POSTS:  TUESDAY 11-09-10

Last Update: 11/10/2010 05:43 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM
ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Progress to fix European debt crisis slows - U.S. official Reuters X                  
Merkel warns on protectionism FT X                  
Cameron seeks to double trade with China FT X                  
Decline in house prices gathers pace FT X                  
Canadian mortgage debt tops $1-trillion for first time G&M X                  
Irish banks sink as EU eyes nation's survival plan AP X                  
If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until... Irish Times X                  
Irish Fight to End Bond `Buyers Strike' as EU Examines Budget Bloomberg X                  
Irish Debt Woes Revive Concern About Europe NY Times X                  
Church in Ireland suffered huge losses in bank crisis Irish Central X                  
USA                      
Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit Shows Continued Decline in Consumer Debt NYFRB X                  
'Huge' Bubble Brewing in Bond Market CNBC     X              
Paying the Lowest Yield on Company Debt NY Times     X              
Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing WSJ     X              
Way Too Big To Fail New Republic           X        
Citigroup debt funds probed by SEC WSJ           X        
Junk-Bond Sellers Find Risk Too High WSJ             X      
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Ambac files for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 AP       X            
The Chinese will have to change their tune eventually Bootle             X      
Shortage of diesel expected to continue in cities Shanghai Daily             X      
New Push to Ban Earmarks in Senate WSJ                 X  
Obama sidesteps question on Fed monetary policy Reuters                 X  
Bush steps out of shadows to tell it his way in memoir FT                 X  
                       
OBAMA'S ASIAN STATE VISITS & SUMMITS                      
Obama calls for top India role at UN FT                 X  
Obama to push greater US ties with Indonesia FT                 X  
Obama Returns to Indonesia to Chase Trade, Not Chickens Bloomberg                 X  
Stephens- Obama's Best Speech WSJ                 X  
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
BP cleared of cutting corners                      
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
The New Malaise and How to End It Warsh                    
Fed Backlash Grows WSJ                    
Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... Hussman                    
America will survive the errors of Ben Bernanke's trigger-happy Federal Reserve Prichard                    
Helicopter Ben to the rescue MW                    
Dependency, The Fed and the Market Smith                    
Alan Reynolds- Ben Bernanke's Impossible Dream  WSJ WSJ                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits in Bull Signal for S&P 500 Bloomberg                    
Buffett's Buyout Search Aided by Biggest Cash Hoard Since 2008 Bloomberg                    
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
'Dumb money' returns to stocks WSJ                    
Be afraid Price                    
Commodity funds 'may be next financial bubble' Telegraph                    
                       

G20 MEETING

                     
China's stiff upper hand Wash. Post.                    
G-20 Spat Risk Eases as U.S. Eschews Pushing Targets Bloomberg                    
The G20 must look beyond Bretton Woods FT                    
Zoellick seeks new gold standard debate - report Reuters                    
Zoellick's call on gold standard dismissed FT                    
APEC debates becoming body that can forge FTA AP                    
Gideon RachmanThe G20’s seven pillars of friction FT                    
Keep the faith- the G20 can stop the war FT                    
                       

CURRENCY WARS

                     
China central bank chief: Ready for QE2 hot money Caixin                    
World Bank Says Asia May Need Capital Controls to Curb Bubbles Bloomberg                    
China to Tighten Control on Inflows of Overseas Funds Bloomberg                    
Straight out of Mad Men: US markets import protection as export promotion VOX                    
US easing ignites forex war fears Standard                    
Hong Kong markets under QE2 pressure MW                    
Bernanke’s inflationary binge could spark a currency war and ruin the dollar Jackson                    
Our Banana Republic Kristof                    
The Search for a New Currency System WSJ                    
                       
Q3 EARNINGS                      
Barclays’ third-quarter profit tumbles FT                    
Barclays Profit Declines 76% as Investment Bank Posts Loss Bloomberg                    
Commerzbank falls short in third quarter FT                    
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Comex Gold Ends Higher, Hits Fresh All-Time High Kitco                    
World Bank Chief Sparks Gold Standard Debate FT                    
Not just inflation fears boosting gold Brimelow                    
Gold and silver on a tear CNN                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

                    LATEST RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS

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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


  BRIEFS  

Obama's 'Hail Mary' Export Strategy
   
     

 READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





11-09-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

 

IRAN

 

ISREAL

 

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Progress to fix European debt crisis slows - U.S. official Reuters

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

Merkel warns on protectionism  FT
Chancellor urges steps to ensure ‘genuinely free trade’

 

FRANCE

 

UK

Cameron seeks to double trade with China   FT

Decline in house prices gathers pace  FT
Increasing number of real-estate professionals reporting falling prices

CANADA

Canadian mortgage debt tops $1-trillion for first time G&M

IRELAND

Irish banks sink as EU eyes nation's survival plan AP

If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until... Irish Times
Ireland is effectively insolvent – the next crisis will be mass mortgage default

 

Irish Fight to End Bond `Buyers Strike' as EU Examines Budget BL

Irish Debt Woes Revive Concern About Europe NYT

Church in Ireland suffered huge losses in bank crisis Irish Central

JAPAN

 

USA

 

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Tuesday, Nov. 9
7:30 am NFIB small business index Oct. 91.7 N/A 89.0
10 am Job openings Sept. 2.93 million N/A 3.09 mln
10 am Wholesale inventories Sept. 1.5% N/A 1.2%

Q3 Report on Household Debt and Credit Shows Continued Decline in Consumer Debt FRBNY

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

'Huge' Bubble Brewing in Bond Market  CNBC

 

  Paying the Lowest Yield on Company Debt NYT
Coke and Colgate almost make Wal-Mart, which borrowed at 1.5 percent, look as though it is overpaying
Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing WSJ

 


 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Way Too Big To Fail New Republic
Financial reform has a terrifying loophole—and the banks found it.

Citigroup debt funds probed by SEC WSJ

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Junk-Bond Sellers Find Risk Too High  WSJ

 

A growing number of hedge funds and other professional investors are getting out of junk bonds and buying assets like mortgage debt and stocks instead.

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Ambac files for bankruptcy under Chapter 11 AP

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


The Chinese will have to change their tune eventually Bootle

Shortage of diesel expected to continue in cities Shanghai Daily


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

New Push to Ban Earmarks in Senate  WSJ

Lawmakers aligned with the tea party are moving quickly to show their strength by trying to ban budget earmarking in the Senate, where support is still strong for the practice critics deride as pork-barrel spending.

 

Obama sidesteps question on Fed monetary policy   Reuters
The Fed "doesn't take orders from the White House”

Bush steps out of shadows to tell it his way in memoir  FT
‘No one was more shocked or angry than I was when we didn’t find [Iraq’s] weapons’

 

OBAMA'S ASIAN STATE VISITS & SUMMITS

 
Obama calls for top India role at UN   FT
Dramatic finale to US three-day diplomatic charm offensive

 

Obama to push greater US ties with Indonesia  FT

 

Obama Returns to Indonesia to Chase Trade, Not Chickens BL

 

Stephens- Obama's Best Speech  WSJ

 


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

BP cleared of cutting corners  FT
No compromises on Gulf of Mexico safety




   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

The New Malaise and How to End It  Wall Street Journal - Kevin M. Warsh - Bio

 

Attacks US Fiscal Policy

 

Policy makers should be skeptical of the long-term benefits of temporary fixes to do the hard work of resurrecting the world's great economic power. Since early 2008, the fiscal authorities have sought to fill the hole left by the falloff in demand through:

 

1- large, temporary stimulus

2- checks in the mail to spur consumption,

3- temporary housing rebates to raise demand,

4- one-time cash-for-clunkers to move inventory, and

5- temporary business tax credits to spur investment.

 

Pro-growth policies include:

 

1-  Reform of the tax code to make it simpler, more transparent and more conducive to long-term investment.

2- These policies also include real regulatory reform so that firms—financial and otherwise—know the rules, and then succeed or fail. Regulators should be hostile to rent-seeking by the established, and hospitable to the companies whose names we do not know.

3- Finally, the creep of trade protectionism is anathema to pro-growth policies. The U.S. should signal to the world that it is ready to resume leadership on trade.


Fed Backlash Grows  WSJ

Global controversy mounted over the Fed's decision to pump billions of dollars into the U.S. economy, with President Barack Obama defending the move as China, Russia and the euro zone added to a chorus of criticism.


Bubble, Crash, Bubble, Crash, Bubble... Hussman
“These are undoubtedly among the most ignorant remarks ever made by a central banker.”

America will survive the errors of Ben Bernanke's trigger-happy Federal Reserve Pritchard
The storm will blow over just as it did after President Nixon closed the gold window in 1971, smashed the Bretton Woods system, and let the dollar go to hell.
 
Helicopter Ben to the rescue   MW

Dependency, The Fed and the Market Smith



Alan Reynolds- Ben Bernanke's Impossible Dream  WSJ


 

 GENERAL INTEREST

CEOs Most Optimistic on U.S. Profits in Bull Signal for S&P 500 BL

 

Buffett's Buyout Search Aided by Biggest Cash Hoard Since 2008 BL

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

MARKET WARNINGS

'Dumb money' returns to stocks WSJ

 

Be afraid Price

 

Commodity funds 'may be next financial bubble' Telegraph

 

G20 MEETING

China's stiff upper hand WP

 

G-20 Spat Risk Eases as U.S. Eschews Pushing Targets BL

 

The G20 must look beyond Bretton Woods By Robert Zoellick (Complete via Google)

 

Zoellick seeks new gold standard debate - report Reuters

 

Zoellick's call on gold standard dismissed  FT

 

APEC debates becoming body that can forge FTA AP

 

Gideon RachmanThe G20’s seven pillars of friction  FT

 

Keep the faith- the G20 can stop the war  FT

 

CURRENCY WARS

China central bank chief: Ready for QE2 hot money Caixin
“We will collect and put this money into a pool so that it will not affect the economy”

World Bank Says Asia May Need Capital Controls to Curb Bubbles  BL

China to Tighten Control on Inflows of Overseas Funds  BL

Straight out of Mad Men: US markets import protection as export promotion VOX

 US easing ignites forex war fears Standard

Hong Kong markets under QE2 pressure MW

Bernanke’s inflationary binge could spark a currency war and ruin the dollar Jackson

 

Our Banana Republic Kristof

 

The Search for a New Currency System  WSJ

 

Q3 EARNINGS

Barclays’ third-quarter profit tumbles  FT

 

Barclays Profit Declines 76% as Investment Bank Posts Loss  BL

Barclays Plc, Britain’s third-largest bank, said quarterly profit declined 76 percent as the investment banking unit run by Chief Executive Officer-designate Robert Diamond posted a loss on falling revenue and the revaluation of debt.

 

Commerzbank falls short in third quarter  FT

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

Comex Gold Ends Higher, Hits Fresh All-Time High Kitco

 

World Bank Chief Sparks Gold Standard Debate FT

 

Not just inflation fears boosting gold Brimelow

 

Gold and silver on a tear CNN

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"It could unfold very, very quickly. Because deflation is a swing of poverty feedback, it can take awhile to build up. If you try to explain to people what's coming, because it doesn't happen instantly, they tend to go back to sleep. The thing they need to understand, however, is that when it does hit a tipping point, a kind of critical mass, then it can unfold exceptionally quickly. Then it's very much like having the rug pulled out from under your feet. So I tell people all the time, prepare now because it's better to be two years too early than five minutes too late. You can't play with this sort of thing. In September, 2008, we came within a few hours of the banking system seizing up, and that could easily happen again. People wouldn't get a lot of notice. For anyone who's not in the meeting room-it will be too late by the time they find out. My worry is that if there are an enormous number of people who just had the rug pulled out from under their feet, they're going to run around like headless chickens, and the human over-reaction to events will be really responsible for a large percentage of the impact. “

Automatic Earth


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

11-09-10

NOVEMBER

S M T W T F S
  1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30        

ARCHIVAL

 

 


 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


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Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.