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CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

List

POSTS:  FRIDAY 10-29-10

Last Update: 10/30/2010 02:46 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
EU leaders back limited treaty change FT X                  
EU Leaders Agree to Plan Permanent Bailout Fund WSJ X                  
The Euro Is Sliding And PIIGS CDS Are Blowing Out Again BI X                  
Irish, Spanish Banks Fail to Reduce Dependence on ECB Funding- Euro Credit Bloomberg X                  
EU Bows to Germany's Call for Permanent Debt Mechanism, Snubs Vote Curbs Bloomberg X                  
Martin Wolf Britain has gone climbing without a rope FT Wolf X                  
Japanese industrial output slumps FT X                  
Japan Output Slide, Deeper Deflation Are `Negative Surprise' for Economy Bloomberg X                  
Japan 'Totally Behind' in Fighting Deflation as Fed Gears Up Bloomberg X                  
Bank of Japan hot on the Fed's heels Barr X                  
USA                      
                       
EU 'haircut' plans rattle bondholders Prichard   X                
This Is The Emerging Market Bond Bubble BI     X              

The scary actual U.S. government debt

G&M     X              
Investors in Riskier Bonds May Not be Coming Back WSJ     X              
Chicago debt rating downgraded FT       X            
College Tuition Goes Parabolic BI       X            
Volcker on His 'Rule'- Keep It Broad WSJ           X        
Bond Investors to Complain Over Bearing Costs of Robo-Signing Bloomberg                 X  
Managing U.S. Mortgages Makes Desoer Besieged at Bank of America Bloomberg                 X  
Foreclosure Freeze Cuts Sales, Supply in Hardest-Hit U.S. States Bloomberg                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Warning- Retirement Disaster Ahead WSJ X                  
Roach calls U.S. China-bashing 'pathetic' Fortune             X      
Bonds Suggest China Central Bank's Inflation Battle to Heat Up Bloomberg             X      
A presidency heading for a fiscal train wreck Roubini                 X  
U.S. Midterm Elections, Obama and Iran Stratfor                 X  
Upcoming Elections Wells Fargo                 X  
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
Halliburton and BP knew risk before spill FT                    
Investigators pose uncomfortable questions FT                    
Contractor's Work on BP Rig Faulted WSJ                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Is More QE in Sight? FRBSL                    
Employment is Main Focus of Fed Policy N Trust                    
The Federal Reserve Stirs Poltergeist Of Hyperinflation, Weimar Collapse Forbes                    
Buck stops with Bernanke in QE2 debate FT                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
What Would Ludwig von Mises Do? EPJ                    
317 years old and still going strong Hulbert                    
Foreclosures, capital and sickening cures Saft                    
Buy & Sell: The recovery illusion Financia Post                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
This Level Of Bullishness Is Horrible For Stocks, Unless BI                    
G20 MEETING                      
G-20 Urges IMF to Offer Loans to Ailing Regions WSJ                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Currencies to Dominate Asia Summit WSJ                    
Gold Will Outlive Dollar Once Slaughter Comes Hathaway                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
Nomura's Quarterly Net Plunges as Commissions, Trading Decline Bloomberg                    
Microsoft's Profit Jumps 51% WSJ                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
'Inside Job': A damning indictment of greed in the financial meltdown Philly                    
Silver Short Position Could Cost JP Morgan Billions in Losses NIA                    
JPMorgan, HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
‘Fault Lines’ wins the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year 2010 FT                    
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

 

 

 

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-29-10

 

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

EU leaders back limited treaty change  FT

Summit stops short of Merkel’s more sweeping proposals

 

EU Leaders Agree to Plan Permanent Bailout Fund  WSJ

 

The Euro Is Sliding And PIIGS CDS Are Blowing Out Again  BI

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

Irish, Spanish Banks Fail to Reduce Dependence on ECB Funding- Euro Credit  BL

 

GERMANY

EU Bows to Germany's Call for Permanent Debt Mechanism, Snubs Vote Curbs BL

German Chancellor Angela Merkel won European Union backing for a rewrite of EU treaties to create a permanent debt-crisis mechanism by 2013 to prevent a repeat of the Greece-led shock that jolted the euro.

 

FRANCE

 

UK

Martin Wolf Britain has gone climbing without a rope FT Wolf

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

Japanese industrial output slumps  FT

 

Japan Output Slide, Deeper Deflation Are `Negative Surprise' for Economy BL

 

Japan 'Totally Behind' in Fighting Deflation as Fed Gears Up  BL

 

Bank of Japan hot on the Fed's heels Barr

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

FRIDAY, Oct. 29
8:30 am GDP 3Q   2.1% 1.7%
8:30 am Employment cost index 3Q   0.5% 0.5%
9:45 am Chicago PMI Oct.   57.0% 60.4%
10 am Consumer sentiment Oct.   68.5 67.9

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

EU 'haircut' plans rattle bondholders Pritchard


3- BOND BUBBLE

 

This Is The Emerging Market Bond Bubble  BI

This chart doesn't need much explanation. It's the amount of assets held by emerging market bond funds.  As Bank of America put it in a presentation on quantitative easing and the hunt for yield, this is one of the "Unintended Consequences" of QE. It's a stark visualization of the mad dash to lend money to anyone that will pay you one iota of yield.  Presenting, the emerging market bond bubble. Hope your hunt for extra yield goes better than every other time folks have pursued the same strategy.

 

 

The scary actual U.S. government debt G&M

Investors in Riskier Bonds May Not be Coming Back WSJ


4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Chicago debt rating downgraded FT

 

College Tuition Goes Parabolic   BI

The college education bubble may be one of the few asset bubbles left in the United States unscathed by the recession. It is, in many ways, an interesting bubble, because the underlying asset is human capital. But you can't foreclose on a human, and that human also can't declare bankruptcy on their student loans. But the value of that human can plummet in an unemployment crisis (earnings) or if their career is in decline (real estate developer).  But, like the real estate bubble before it, easy capital from the U.S. government is spurring it forward. Access to government loans and low interest rates make the high up front costs of education seem plausible.

But all of that easy money is driving up the cost of education across the country, as colleges and universities pile it into professor salaries, new construction, football coaches, and land grabs Tuition continues to rise, according to the College Board's latest survey, even though the country is in its deepest downturn since the great depression.

Check out the full College Board presentation here

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Volcker on His 'Rule'- Keep It Broad  WSJ

Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker is telling administration officials they should avoid writing narrow regulations that banks can seek to exploit or evade.


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Bond Investors to Complain Over Bearing Costs of Robo-Signing BL

 

Managing U.S. Mortgages Makes Desoer Besieged at Bank of America BL

 

Foreclosure Freeze Cuts Sales, Supply in Hardest-Hit U.S. States  BL

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Warning- Retirement Disaster Ahead  WSJ

Don't let the rally in the stock and bond markets fool you. Many Americans are still hurtling towards a retirement disaster. Few realize it. Even many of those running the big pension funds don't know.

That's the conclusion of John West and Rob Arnott at Research Affiliates, an investment management firm, in Newport Beach, Calif. In their latest report, "Hope Is Not A Strategy," they have some numbers to back it up.


12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Roach calls U.S. China-bashing 'pathetic' Fortune

Bonds Suggest China Central Bank's Inflation Battle to Heat Up  BL

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

A presidency heading for a fiscal train wreck FT (Roubini)

 

U.S. Midterm Elections, Obama and Iran Stratfor

 

Upcoming Elections Wells Fargo



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------


Halliburton and BP knew risk before spill FT
Gulf of Mexico well had ‘unstable’ cement

Investigators pose uncomfortable questions  FT

Contractor's Work on BP Rig Faulted  WSJ

Halliburton found repeated problems with the cement it was planning to install in BP's doomed oil well but used it anyway.


   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Is More QE in Sight? FRBSL

Employment is Main Focus of Fed Policy NTrust

The Federal Reserve Stirs Poltergeist Of Hyperinflation, Weimar Collapse Forbes

Buck stops with Bernanke in QE2 debate  FT

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

What Would Ludwig von Mises Do? EPJ

 

317 years old and still going strong Hulbert

 

Foreclosures, capital and sickening cures Saft

 

Buy & Sell: The recovery illusion Financial Post
The hedge fund manager believes the United States, Japan, most of Europe, and potentially even Canada will go back into recession in the next three to six months.

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

This Level Of Bullishness Is Horrible For Stocks, Unless  BI

 
Unless it's 2003 (i.e. a real recovery year) all over again. See, earlier we noted that the AAII sentiment index is officially in uber-bull territory, with optimism hitting a two-year high. This is of concern to BTIG's Mike O'Rourke, who has been turning cautious everytime this sentiment index jumps. 

But.. Despite the flat performance of the Equity market, it was truly a mixed day.  One key negative  was the 70.34% Bullish reading on the AAII sentiment survey.  After the very pessimistic reading  in early July, we noted that we expected the July 1st low to be the equity market low for 2010.   We frequently mention that we think very highly of this indicator and that a reading above 70%  Bullish is a “sell signal.”  This is the first such sell signal since February 23, 2007.  This reading is  not enough to shift us out of the Bullish camp, but it makes us cautious.  As we have noted in  the past, 2003 serves is the caveat for adhering to the sell signal when economic data begins to  show signs of improvement (chart below).  If economic data begins to exhibit signs of recovery  as it did throughout 2003, the market can continue to rally despite AAII being in sell territory  most of the year.  That leads into the positive news of the day, which was the Initial Jobless  Claims report.  Today’s reading of 434,000 claims was the second lowest of 2010, and you have  to go back to the summer of 2008 to see consistently lower readings.  As we have advised since  August, if we continue to follow similar patterns to last year, there is a high likelihood that Initial  Claims will break below 400,000 before year end.

 

 

G20

G-20 Urges IMF to Offer Loans to Ailing Regions  WSJ

The Group of 20 leaders are likely to ask the International Monetary Fund to devise new ways to lend to countries in distress during a financial meltdown.

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Currencies to Dominate Asia Summit  WSJ

 

 

Asia's sharply rising currencies and an upcoming election in military-run Myanmar are set to dominate an annual regional summit in Vietnam this weekend, with Southeast Asian nations already pushing for fresh efforts to prevent sudden foreign-exchange swings from undermining their export-driven economies.

Analysts say countries such as Thailand and the Philippines will find it difficult to convince China to let its closely controlled yuan rise more freely, a move they hope would relieve some of the upward pressure on their currencies, which have been driven higher in recent months by a surge of global investment flows away from dollar-denominated assets.

 

Gold Will Outlive Dollar Once Slaughter Comes BL (Hathaway)
The world’s monetary system is in the process of melting down

 

Q3 EARNINGS

Nomura's Quarterly Net Plunges as Commissions, Trading Decline  BL

 

Microsoft's Profit Jumps 51%  WSJ

Microsoft's quarterly profit climbed 51% as it benefited from a strong demand for its Windows 7 operating system and Office 2010, despite concerns about consumer demand for computers.

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

'Inside Job': A damning indictment of greed in the financial meltdown Philly

 

Silver Short Position Could Cost JP Morgan Billions in Losses NIA

 

JPMorgan, HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures BL

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

‘Fault Lines’ wins the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year 2010  FT
One of the few economists to see the financial crisis coming has won the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award. Raghuram Rajan collected the £30,000 prize for 'Fault Lines' in New York on Wednesday, and afterwards talked to Andrew Hill, City Editor, about who's to blame for the financial crisis and how the financial system remains fractured.

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

FRIDAY

10-29-10

S M T W T F S
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24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31            

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.