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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Debase, Default, Deny!

 

In September 2008 the US came to a fork in the road. The Public Policy decision to not seize the banks, to not place them in bankruptcy court with the government acting as the Debtor-in-Possession (DIP), to not split them up by selling off the assets to successful and solvent entities, set the world on the path to global currency wars.

 

By lowering interest rates and effectively guaranteeing a weak dollar, the US ignited an almost riskless global US$ Carry Trade and triggered an uncontrolled Currency War with the mercantilist, export driven Asian economies. We are now debasing the US dollar with reckless spending and money printing with the policies of Quantitative Easing (QE) I and the expectations of QE II. Both are nothing more than effectively defaulting on our obligations to sound money policy and a “strong US$”. Meanwhile with a straight face we deny that this is our intention.  

 

Though prior to the 2008 financial crisis our largest banks had become casino like speculators with public money lacking in fiduciary responsibility, our elected officials bailed them out. Our leadership placed America and the world unknowingly (knowingly?) on a preordained destructive path because it was politically expedient and the easiest way out of a difficult predicament. By kicking the can down the road our political leadership, like the banks, avoided their fiduciary responsibility. Similar to a parent wanting to be liked and a friend to their children they avoided the difficult discipline that is required at certain critical moments in life. The discipline to make America swallow a needed pill. The discipline to ask Americans to accept a period of intense adjustment. A period that by now would be starting to show signs of success versus the abyss we now find ourselves staring into.  A future that is now massively worse and with potentially fatal pain still to come. READ MORE

   

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundres  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  THURSDAY 10-28-10

Last Update: 10/29/2010 04:16 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Portugal budget talks collapse, threatening crisis Reuters X                  
Portugal Budget Discussions Break Down, Government Collapse Imminent ZH X                  
Spain's Deficit Cuts Rewarded With Cheaper Funding- Euro Credit Bloomberg X                  
Merkel insists on EU treaty change FT X                  
French Workers Strike in Unions' Stand on Pension Bill Bloomberg X                  
Aussie consumer debt on the rise - study AAP X                  
Anglo Irish bondholders to defy debt exchange FT X                  
Bank of Japan offers QE details FT X                  
Bank of Japan to Buy Lowered-Rated Corporate Debt Bloomberg X                  
Bank Of Japan Accelerates Plan To Buy ETFs And Property As A New Form Of Stimulus BI X                  
USA                      
Credit Suisse joins fund to meet risk rules FT   X                
Basel reforms to hit investment banking arms FT   X                
Santander hit by Spain's bad loan rules FT   X                

CEO Says UniCredit Will Stay the Course

WSJ   X                
Run Turkey, Run Gross     X              
Treasury- No Systemic-Risk Fears WSJ           X        
Michael Lewis- These three words in Dodd-Frank changed everything BI           X        
Foreclosure activity up across most US metro areas AP                 X  
Robert Shiller: End of tax credit could mean big trouble for housing ... and banks TTicker                 X  
Wells Fargo admits foreclosure problems FT                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
US imposes duty on Chinese copper pipe, tube imports China Daily             X      
China official: Dollar printing causing inflation AP             X      
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
The Fed's impending blunder Prichard                    
Fed Instills Uncertainty about Size of QE-2, Defends USD Dorsch                    
Fed Asks Dealers to Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases Bloomberg                    
Mad Fed Should Beware Unquantifiable Outcomes Gilbert                    
A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason ZH                    
QE2 Trashing Trifecta- Peter Orszag Joins Gross and Grantham ZH                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
John Embry - “I Guarantee Hyperinflation” King World                    
JPMorgan inks $6bn Brazil hedge fund deal FT                    
Some Small Firms Raise Prices                      
Straight Talk with Mike Shedlock (aka "Mish") Chris Martenson                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
25th Sequential Stock Fund Outflow, $81 Billion Year To Date ZH                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Currency wars The IMF must take more of an active role FT                    
S Korea considers more capital controls FT                    
Andy Xie- Hot Money Flows Into Emerging Markets Will Go 'From Boiling To Molten' BI                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
JPMorgan, HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-28-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

PORTUGAL

Portugal budget talks collapse, threatening crisis Reuters

 

Portugal Budget Discussions Break Down, Government Collapse Imminent  ZH

As BBC reports, "the minority government of Portugal has failed to gain opposition support for its proposed austerity budget. A failure to pass the budget could plunge the country back into the debt crisis it had seemingly escaped since the summer." And this: "Prime Minister Jose Socrates threatened to quit if the budget fails, while the finance minister ruled out more talks." In other words, the Portuguese government is about to fall, bond sales are to be put on Hiatus, and talk of the ESFS' usage is likely to reemerge, and add Portugal to the list of recipients including Greece and Ireland.

Nielsen's take is just as dire:

If PSD were to vote against the Budget, the Government would resign and early elections would be called.  However, since the elections cannot be held during six months before a presidential election (schedule for January), there would be neither a government not a budget until well into 2011 in this case.  In my opinion, this would imply a worrisome delay in the formulation and implementation of critical budget cuts and reforms.

Simply said, the realization that austerity has failed, following recent endless strikes out of France, is becoming ever more widespread. Basically, the only two alternatives proposed by Keynesian economics: excess spending and thrift, are now in complete failure mode, once again confirming that the sole economic theory used by the world over the past century has been nothing but a lie, providing no viable alternatives in times of real stress.

Next up: the realization that fiat money is a broken system.

Luckily, Bill Gross is ahead of the pack on that one:

"Perhaps, as a vocal contingent suggests, our paper-based foundation of wealth deserves to be buried, making a fresh start from admittedly lower levels."

When that last, most obstinate and intellectually challenged Nobel-prize winning shaman of Keynesianism, Paul Krugman finally espouses this view, that will mark the end of the Fed, and will return gold to its rightful place. Of course, for that to happen, Krugman will need to populate his little pet Op-Ed column: "The Worst Economist In The World" with daily quotations of his own endless drivel.

SPAIN

Spain's Deficit Cuts Rewarded With Cheaper Funding- Euro Credit  BL

 

GERMANY

Merkel insists on EU treaty change  FT

 

FRANCE

French Workers Strike in Unions' Stand on Pension Bill  BL

 

UK

 

AUSTRALIA

Aussie consumer debt on the rise - study AAP

 

IRELAND

Anglo Irish bondholders to defy debt exchange  FT

Ad hoc group of investors to battle against acceptance of tender offer

 

 

JAPAN

Bank of Japan offers QE details  FT

 

Bank of Japan to Buy Lowered-Rated Corporate Debt  BL

 

Bank Of Japan Accelerates Plan To Buy ETFs And Property As A New Form Of Stimulus  BI

Japan's wildest stimulus idea to date, in our view, has been the recent proposal to buy not just government bonds, but also ETFs and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) using freshly printed money from the central bank.

While today the Bank of Japan unveiled plans to buy 3.5 trillion yen of long- and short-term government securities, they oddly accelerated plans to start sopping up ETFs and REITs.

Reuters:

The central bank also said it would bring forward its next policy board meeting to November 4-5 from November 15-16 to make arrangements to start buying exchange-traded funds and J-REITs at an early date.

What's the rush? Perhaps they'll explain later today:

As widely expected, it decided to keep interest rates unchanged at a range of zero to 0.1 percent by a unanimous vote.

The BOJ will issue its twice-yearly report on the economic and price outlook at 3 p.m. (2 a.m. ET). Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will then hold an embargoed news conference, with his comments expected to come out sometime after 4:15 p.m. (3:15 a.m. ET).

Read more here >

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Thursday, Oct. 28
8:30 am Jobless claims 10/23 434,000 450,000 455,000

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Credit Suisse joins fund to meet risk rules  FT

Aid to reducing capital requirement for Basel III

 

Basel reforms to hit investment banking arms  FT

 

Santander hit by Spain's bad loan rules  FT

 

CEO Says UniCredit Will Stay the Course  WSJ

The chief executive of Italy's UniCredit is brushing aside pressure from top Italian shareholders and in an interview said the bank will expand its retail and investment-banking operations in Central and Eastern Europe.

 

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

Run Turkey, Run Gross
Check writing in the trillions is not a bondholder’s friend; it is in fact inflationary, and, if truth be told, somewhat of a Ponzi scheme. Public debt, actually, has always had a Ponzi-like characteristic.

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Treasury- No Systemic-Risk Fears  WSJ

Michael Lewis- These three words in Dodd-Frank changed everything  BI

In his latest piece for Bloomberg, Michael Lewis explains why banks that lobbied so exhaustively to make sure Dodd-Frank wouldn't destroy their prop desks, seem to now be dumping their traders or dispatching them to new homes regardless. The answer is pretty simple according to Lewis. Apparently the banks have zero intention of halting prop trading practices and are simply camoflaging those ventures by renaming the activity. This is something we have long suspected, and we're not the only one ones.  According to Lewis, here's the part of the new law that is going to be walked all over:

Unless otherwise provided in this section, a banking entity shall not --

(A) engage in proprietary trading; or

(B) take or retain any equity, partnership, or other ownership interest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund.

And here's why (from Sec. 989. of Dodd-Frank):

The term `proprietary trading' means the act of a covered entity investing as a principal in securities, commodities, derivatives, hedge funds, private equity firms, or such other financial products or entities as the [Government Accountability Office] may determine.

Lewis' bond trader said that because those three little words - as a prinicipal - get to be defined by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the GAO has no idea what it means either - (“We’re really too early in the process to speak to how we might define it,” said spokeswoman Orice Williams Brown to Lewis) bankers aren't bothering to wait around and have taken it upon themselves to clarify its meaning.

Traders are giddy over the words, says Lewis.

An ex-JP Morganer who used to work for the bank's Chief Investment Office told Lewis that the unit was making huge bets with the bank's capital despite marketing itself as a hedging desk, and would keep carry on doing it irrespective of the Volcker Rule.

Lewis also spoke at length with a former Lehmanite who is writing a thesis on the history of prop trading at NYU. The ex-corporate bond trader has been chatting up other bond salesman who "have been surprisingly open about their intentions to exploit one obvious loophole in the new law."

Basically, "there are a hundred different ways to claim to be acting as an agent or for a customer," the ex-Lehman Brothers trader told Lewis, and that is going to be how commercial bankers will take on propietry positionswithout breaking any rules.

For the full article, go to Bloomberg >



7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Foreclosure activity up across most US metro areas AP

“The epidemic is spreading from the states at the ground zero of the foreclosure problems out into areas that hadn't been previously affected”

Robert Shiller: End of tax credit could mean big trouble for housing ... and banks TTicker

Wells Fargo admits foreclosure problems  FT
Bank to submit additional paperwork on 55,000 foreclosures

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


US imposes duty on Chinese copper pipe, tube imports China Daily

China official: Dollar printing causing inflation AP


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


The Fed's impending blunder Pritchard

It is worth reading “QE2: How Much is Needed?” by Jan Hatzius from Goldman Sachs. His argument – crudely – is that US interest rates at zero are 7pc too high given the Taylor Rule on output gaps, et cetera (not that Professor Taylor himself happens to agree, but let us not quibble). Since rates cannot be minus 7pc, the Fed would need to launch a $4 trillion blitz of fresh bond purchases to fully compensate, such is the mess that America’s leadership has inflicted on the Great Republic. I have over-simplified: Goldman Sachs relies on a “policy gap” concept, which factors in fiscal tightening et al.  This would push the Fed balance sheet to $6.3 trillion, above the $5 trillion pencilled in as the upper limit during the Great Crash.

We are no longer in a systemic financial crisis, and the Fed’s motives have become subtly corrupted. Having argued during the boom that it was not the business of central banks to stop asset bubbles – and specifically that any fall-out could “safely” be cleaned up later – Bernanke now seems to determined to validate this absurd doctrine, bending all the sinews of the US economic and financial system to this end. One error leads to the next.

Simon Ward from Henderson Global Investors said his measure of velocity is rising at a robust rate of 8.7pc. “QE1 was justified during the crisis because monetary velocity was collapsing at that time. But now that velocity is recovering further QE is not needed. In fact it is potentially very dangerous,” he said.

 

“If there is an `imbalance’, it is in the US pretending it can solve structural headwinds, overextended balance sheets, chronic unemployment and a massive housing inventory backlog with untested Fed policy tools,”

Bernanke is refusing to accept that the US must go through the slow painful cure of debt-deleveraging. He is trying to air-brush away the consequences of 20 years of debt creation and Fed error.

The proper role for the Fed from now on  is to steer a narrow course between the Scylla of deflation and the Charybdis of inflation, for year after, for as long as it takes, until America is properly purged. AND THEN NEVER COMMIT SAME IDIOTIC MISTAKE AGAIN.



Fed Instills Uncertainty about Size of QE-2, Defends USD Dorsch

Fed Asks Dealers to Estimate Size, Impact of Debt Purchases BL
The Federal Reserve asked bond dealers and investors for projections of central bank asset purchases over the next six months, along with the likely effect on yields, as it seeks to gauge the possible impact of new efforts to spur growth.

Mad Fed Should Beware Unquantifiable Outcomes Gilbert

A Paralyzed Fed Defers Decision On Monetary Policy To Primary Dealers In An Act That Can Only Be Classified As Treason  ZH

QE2 Trashing Trifecta- Peter Orszag Joins Gross and Grantham  ZH

The president's own former advisor, and now very much outspoken critic, Peter Orszag has joined the cool kids by releasing the following scathing oped in the NYT, whose topic is, drumroll, QE2: "by perpetuating an artificially low 10-year government bond rate, the Fed may be delaying the very fiscal policy action that the nation most needs, while doing little to boost an economy whose principal problem is not high long-term interest rates." The message, for anyone having read the prior two essays, or Zero Hedge, is nothing new. What is, is the massive onslaught by virtually everyone of any political and financial stature on this pretty much inevitable policy decision by Bernanke. The question we have is did Goldman's estimate that QE2 needs to be up to $4 trillion blow the party? Are expectations for future monetary easing so high (and unattainable) now that the market had to be artificially be pushed lower so there is some upside on November 3? Because for all those who believe that the Fed has found religion and thinks a strong dollar is suddenly a policy goal, we have two words: "Wake up."

Sailing the Wrong Way with QE2?, posted in the New York Times

To bolster the economy, we need a three-part shift in policy:

    · more fiscal expansion (read: more stimulus) now;

    · much more deficit reduction, enacted now, to take effect in two to three years; and

    · an improvement in the relationship between business and government (the current antagonism, even if not the primary explanation for slow hiring and sluggish investment, does seem to be affecting hiring and other business behavior).

Unfortunately, the necessary shifts in fiscal policy are extremely unlikely to happen, and the strains between business and government are now so deep that they will take time to address. So we’re left relying on monetary policy — and in particular a much-anticipated second round of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve — which may create more problems than it solves.

As Paul Krugman and others have pointed out, the net effect of “QE2” is similar to having the Treasury sell short-term T-bills and using the proceeds to buy back 10-year bonds. The result is thus that the average maturity of government debt held outside the government falls. (From a debt management perspective and given current interest rates, the Federal government should probably be lengthening the average maturity of debt held by the public rather than reducing it, but let’s not worry about that for now.)

What are the benefits of such a reduction in the average maturity of government debt in the current economic environment?

They’re quite limited for two reasons. First, at the likely scale of the Fed’s purchases, the long bond rate will fall only modestly. And second, a modest reduction in long-term interest rates will not have much effect on economic activity at a time when corporations are flush with cash and worried about the future. (As Alan Blinder recently emphasized, “To attach some illustrative numbers to this concept, suppose the Fed succeeds in trimming government-bond rates by 30 basis points, and that brings down corporate bond rates by 15 basis points. Will that make a big difference to corporate spending?”) Many commentators, including a few presidents of the regional Federal Reserve banks, have noted the risks to the Fed’s credibility from QE2.

Ironically, QE2 could make the right policy mix less likely. In particular, any substantial additional stimulus will probably not (and should not) be enacted without a medium-term deficit reduction package — and that medium-term deficit reduction package is less likely to be enacted when interest rates on long-term government bonds are so low.

In other words, by perpetuating an artificially low 10-year government bond rate, the Fed may be delaying (even if very modestly, given the modest impact of the action on long rates) the very fiscal policy action that the nation most needs, while doing little to boost an economy whose principal problem is not high long-term interest rates.

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

 John Embry - “I Guarantee Hyperinflation” King World

 

JPMorgan inks $6bn Brazil hedge fund deal  FT

 

Some Small Firms Raise Prices  WSJ

While most small-businesses are lowering or holding firm on prices, some are going ahead and raising them, with positive results.

 

Straight Talk with Mike Shedlock (aka "Mish")  Chris Martenson

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

25th Sequential Stock Fund Outflow, $81 Billion Year To Date  ZH

To all those (most Bob Pisani) who hoped last week was going to be the last sequential outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, after a modest decline in redemptions, we have some bad news. Today, ICI reported the 25th outflow in a row. Total YTD money redeemed is now $81 billion. From the market bottom in July, all the way to the current 2010 highs, the market has seen $51 billion in 16 sequential outflows. So to recap: mutual funds are not buying, pensions are not buying, retail is no longer even remotely interested in touching stocks... yet the market surge won't end. Some 2010 market highs money can't buy. For everything else, there's Bernanke Card. It is clear now that in the Fed's pursuit of chasing the "wealth effect" of the 1,000 or so remaining traders, logic will simply not stand in the way.

And even if this eventually turns positive: whether it is next week, next year, or never, what does it matter? Obviously plain vanilla money is no longer relevant to asset flows. In a central planning regime, all asset levels are determined by one person and one alone.

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

Currency wars The IMF must take more of an active role  FT

 

S Korea considers more capital controls FT

 

Andy Xie- Hot Money Flows Into Emerging Markets Will Go 'From Boiling To Molten'  BI

Andy Xie's latest is to urge emerging market nations to throw any notion of free market economics to the wind and simply protect themselves from speculative capital flows at all cost.

Emerging markets have already been swamped by capital, as their asset markets can likely attest. Yet it's just beginning, says Mr. Xie:

Caixin:

Emerging economies need a fresh spray of capital controls and higher interest rates – because hot money inflows are about to go from boiling to molten

...

The Republican Party is likely to win control of the House in the November mid-term elections. With the Democrats in control of the Whitehouse and the Republicans, the House, no meaningful policy can be achieved to address the U.S.'s structural problems. The Fed will come under more pressure to stimulate the economy. As long as inflation remains low in the short term, the Fed has the excuse to stimulate more, even though it's really driven to do so under political pressure.
 
The Fed will soon announce a scaling up of QE 2. The market estimates the range to be between US$ 500 to 1,500 billion. The dollar is expected to be highly volatile up to the Fed's announcement. If the announced figure is over US$ 1 trillion, the dollar is likely to depreciate, and vice versa. While the currency volatility may decline somewhat after the announcement, it will return when the Fed signals more stimulus, because the monetary stimulus won't solve the structural problems.

He's already forecasting a third round of quantitative easing even:

First, emerging economies must stop hot money by any means. Forget about free market dogma. This is literally a life-and-death situation. In three months, the market may start to talk about QE 3 by the Fed. The hot money will likely double or triple from here. Financial markets like to say that government interventions are not effective in the end. This is nonsense. A sovereign country can do whatever it wishes, including throwing people in jail and confiscating foreign investment. The argument against it is that the market would punish you for this in future by denying you funding when you need it. Forget that. Russia gave foreign bondholders a deep haircut a decade ago. They are bending backwards to buy Russian bonds now. Besides, emerging economies don't get money when they need it, like ten years ago, even with high interest rates, and see money flooding in when they don't need it like they do now.

...

Emerging economies, save yourselves!

He speaks more from the angle of economic policy within emerging markets, but for investors we feel there's a practical angle to his words as well -- we could easily have another year of surging demand for emerging market assets should Mr. Xie's concerns be correct.

The enactment of strict capital controls are a risk for asset markets, but one has to gauge which asset markets are most at risk of being hit. Property markets are probably more likely to be targeted, given that affordability plays into governments' considerations, as is happening in Hong Kong right now. Yet stocks? I think we are a very long way from governments in emerging markets being concerned about their stock market prices being too high.

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

JPMorgan, HSBC Accused of Manipulating Silver Futures BL

 

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.