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COMMENTARY for all articles by Gordon T Long

 

CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundre s  READ MOREE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE


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POSTS:  TUESDAY 10-26-10

Last Update: 10/26/2010 04:53 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Chavez orders expropriation of Owens-Illinois unit in Venezuela AP                    
                       
Greece Likely to Default By 2013 as Debts Remain, El-Erian Says Bloomberg X                  
Economist Slams US Attempts to Curb Germany's Export Strength Spiegel X                  
Business chiefs demand clarity on growth FT X                  
Cameron outlines ‘strategy for growth’ FT X                  
UK economy grows twice as fast as predicted Telegraph X                  
Housing market declines raise fears of double dip Independ. X                  
Japan looks to life with strong yen FT X                  
USA                      
Consumer confidence rises only slightly in October AP X                  
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose Less Than Forecast in August Bloomberg X                  
Pandit and King clash over Basel III FT   X                
Basel risks punishing wrong banks FT   X                
German bankers in attack on regulations FT   X                
Research euro area: Excess liquidity and money market rates Danske   X                
Four Big Banks Should Plan to Bail Out of Europe Lynn   X                
US Treasury sells negative-rate bonds FT     X              
A U.S. State on the Verge of Default: A Simulation - Or Is It? WSJ       X            
Shrinking Bank Revenue Signals Dawn of `Worst' Growth Decade Bloomberg           X        
Home Sales Rise, but So Do Bearish Views WSJ                 X  
Signs of foreclosure paperwork problems were missed, FDIC chief says LA Times                 X  
Global house prices - Floor to ceiling Economist                    
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Radical changes to state pension proposed FT X                  
99 Weeks: When Unemployment Benefits Run Out 60Minutes   X                
Zombie America vs. China’s Zombie-Eaters 2020 Farrell             X      
Commercial properties absorb $11.9b in Q3 Shanghai Daily             X      
Watchdog: Funny math used on AIG bailout CNN                 X  
REMAINING                      
Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highs Guardian                   31
                       
                       
BP OIL                      
Dudley hits out at Gulf spill fear-mongering FT                    
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Bernanke Asset Purchases Risk Unleashing 1970s Inflation Genie Bloomberg                    
Fed Can Provide Support to the Economy: Dudley Reuters                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Markets Put Low Odds on Deflation WSJ                    
With TIPS, heads I win, tails I also win Hulbert                    
An Eight-Legged Table Wells Fargo                    
Why Has America’s Ronomic Recovery Stalled? Project Syndicate                    
Overdrive - Who really rescued General Motors? New Yorker                    
Sex, Drugs, and the Subprime Meltdown Mother Jones                    
The Monster: How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America--and Spawned a Global Crisis Amazon                    
The New Scramble for Africa Asia Sentinel                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Think this economy is bad? Wait for 2012 Wash Post                    
The new Wall Street: No bubble, no profits MW                    
So What Is Insider Trading? Sorkin                    
G20 MEETING                      
Geithner's hidden G-20 agenda Asia Times                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Status quo for dollar as G20 lacks urgency FT                    
What Does a Weak US Dollar Mean for Investors? Schwab                    
Fed up with the peg Finance Asia                    
In Pyongyang, the Dollar Commands Respect BW                    
UBS Posts Profit, Sees Strong Fourth Quarter WSJ                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
UBS hit by investment banking losses FT                    
Swiss urge capital boost for banks FT                    
Capital proposal targets UBS and Credit Suisse FT                    
Devil could lie in the detail FT                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
CFTC's Chilton raises alarm about silver market Bloomberg                    
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-26-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

VENEZUELA

Chavez orders expropriation of Owens-Illinois unit in Venezuela AP


1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

Greece Likely to Default By 2013 as Debts Remain, El-Erian Says BL
“Greek bonds have been under pressure since El-Erian’s comments...”

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

Economist Slams US Attempts to Curb Germany's Export Strength Spiegel

FRANCE

 

UK

Business chiefs demand clarity on growth  FT

Coalition attacked over lack of policy detail

 

Cameron outlines ‘strategy for growth’  FT

 

UK economy grows twice as fast as predicted Telegraph

 

Housing market declines raise fears of double dip Independent

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

Japan looks to life with strong yen  FT

The G20 consensus has not tamed the markets

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Tuesday, Oct. 26
9 am Case-Shiller home prices Aug. -0.2% N/A 0.6%
10 am Consumer confidence Oct. 50.2 50.0 48.6
10 am FHFA home prices Aug. 0.4% N/A -0.7%

 

 

Consumer confidence rises only slightly in October AP CB

 

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Rose Less Than Forecast in August BL S&P

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Pandit and King clash over Basel III  FT

Citi CEO and central banker disagree over reforms

 

Basel risks punishing wrong banks  FT

 

German bankers in attack on regulations  FT

 

Research euro area: Excess liquidity and money market rates Danske

 

Four Big Banks Should Plan to Bail Out of Europe Lynn

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

US Treasury sells negative-rate bonds  FT

Debt sales highlight abnormal conditions

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

A U.S. State on the Verge of Default: A Simulation - Or Is It? WSJ

 

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


Shrinking Bank Revenue Signals Dawn of `Worst' Growth Decade BL


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Home Sales Rise, but So Do Bearish Views WSJ

Homes sales picked up in September, but housing analysts and economists remain bearish about the market's prospects and are pushing back their forecasts for a housing recovery.

 

 

Signs of foreclosure paperwork problems were missed, FDIC chief says LAT

 

Global house prices - Floor to ceiling Economist
Our latest round-up shows that prices are on the rise in most markets

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Radical changes to state pension proposed  FT

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


99 Weeks: When Unemployment Benefits Run Out 60 Minutes

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


Zombie America vs. China’s Zombie-Eaters 2020 Farrell

Commercial properties absorb $11.9b in Q3 Shanhgai Daily


19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

Watchdog: Funny math used on AIG bailout CNN


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

Global food crisis forecast as prices reach record highs Guardian

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 

Dudley hits out at Gulf spill fear-mongering  FT
BP chief criticises ‘media firestorm’ over oil disaster



   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------


Bernanke Asset Purchases Risk Unleashing 1970s Inflation Genie BL

Fed Can Provide Support to the Economy: Dudley Reuters  Speech
“The Fed cannot wave a magic wand and make the problems remaining from the preceding period of excess vanish immediately...”

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

Markets Put Low Odds on Deflation  WSJ

 

With TIPS, heads I win, tails I also win Hulbert 

 

 An Eight-Legged Table Wells Fargo

 

Why Has America’s Ronomic Recovery Stalled? Project Syndicate

 

Overdrive - Who really rescued General Motors? New Yorker

 

Sex, Drugs, and the Subprime Meltdown Mother Jones

 

The Monster: How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America--and Spawned a Global Crisis Amazon

 

The New Scramble for Africa Asia Sentinel

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

Think this economy is bad? Wait for 2012 WP

 

The new Wall Street: No bubble, no profits MW

 

So What Is Insider Trading? Sorkin

G20 MEETING

Geithner's hidden G-20 agenda Asia Times

CURRENCY WARS

Status quo for dollar as G20 lacks urgency   FT

 

What Does a Weak US Dollar Mean for Investors? Schwab

 

Fed up with the peg Finance Asia
Hongkongers are getting sick and tired of the effects of the peg to America’s sinking currency.

 

In Pyongyang, the Dollar Commands Respect BW

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

UBS hit by investment banking losses  FT

Swiss bank sees return to positive net money flows

 

Swiss urge capital boost for banks  FT

 

Capital proposal targets UBS and Credit Suisse FT

 

Devil could lie in the detail  FT

 

UBS Posts Profit, Sees Strong Fourth Quarter   WSJ

UBS swung to a third-quarter net profit from a year-ago loss and struck an optimistic tone for a better fourth quarter, as it reversed two years of heavy outflows from wealthy clients.

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

CFTC's Chilton raises alarm about silver market BL
“There have been fraudulent efforts to persuade and deviously control that price”

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

TUESDAY

10-26-10

S M T W T F S
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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.