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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundre s  READ MOREE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 10-25-10

Last Update: 10/26/2010 02:54 PM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
French Protests Inflict Over Half A Billion Dollars Of Economic Damage PER DAY BI X                  
Pound forecast to tumble on 'insane' spending cuts Telegraph X                  
Cameron outlines ‘strategy for growth’ FT X                  
Japan, U.S. in new tiff with China over renminbi Asahi X                  
USA                      
Overseas demand lifts US manufacturers FT X                  
Bankers 'caused credit crisis for kicks' Telegraph   X                
7 banks closed in Fla., Ga., Ill., Kan., Ariz. AP           X        
The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2 Mauldin                 X  
Maine law set foreclosure crisis in motion Stateline                 X  
US foreclosure pipeline slows FT                 X  
Foreclosures spawn new attitude to ownership FT                 X  
Foreclosure pressure on banks grows FT                 X  
Wells Fargo defends its foreclosures FT                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Radical changes to state pension proposed FT X                  
China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers Janszen             X      
Manias and Meddlers: Secret Past of Chinese Stock Market WSJ             X      
Greenspan's Bubbles to Lose Air in Frothy China Pesek             X      
Wang and US finance chief hold meeting Shanghai Daily             X      
Key Tax Breaks at Risk as Panel Looks at Cuts WSJ                 X  
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap Hussman                    
Fischer `in a Bind' as Investors Bet Inflation May Accelerate Bloomberg                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
The Rules Of the Game and Economic Recovery Shales                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
The US Equity Market Is Dead And Only The Taxpayer Is Still Buying Smith                    
˜Head & shoulders’ and ‘double-dips’ Hulbert                    
Richard Clarida's retrospective on the financial crisis Econbrowser                    
Falling Into the Chasm Krugman                    
G20 FINANCE MINISTERS                      
G20 pledges action on currencies FT                    
Germany And Brazil Torpedo Currency Deal At The G20 BI                    
Imbalancing act as G20 ministers still fail to deliver King                    
Trade imbalance targets elude G20 FT                    
Traders snap up stocks and commodities as dollar slumps FT                    
G-20 Sketches Out Currency Steps WSJ                    
IMF REFORMS                      
G20 reaches deal on reform of IMF FT                    
IMF Says G-20 Agreed on ‘Biggest Reform Ever’ (Update1) Bloomberg                    
Accord on IMF board masks lack of progress FT                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
                       
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Advisers Try to Tame Investors' Appetite for Gold WSJ                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-25-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

French Protests Inflict Over Half A Billion Dollars Of Economic Damage PER DAY BI

 

Strikes are costing the France 200 - 400 million euros per day ($560 million) according to Finance Minister Christine Lagarde.

I tweeted this thought last week, but now it seems even more relevant -- Might it be possible for France to tank its own economic recovery with protests?

It would surely make budget challenges far worse, but one wonders if it would at the same time galvanized public support against protesters.

Hopefully it won't get to that point, as the French Senate passed pension reform last Friday, with final approval expected by the end of this week according to the AP.

 

UK

Pound forecast to tumble on 'insane' spending cuts Telegraph

 

Cameron outlines ‘strategy for growth’  FT

PM looks to private sector to fill gap left by retreating state

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

Japan, U.S. in new tiff with China over renminbi Asahi

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous
MONDAY, Oct. 25
10 am Existing-home sales Sept. 4.53 mln 4.39 mln 4.12 mln



Overseas demand lifts US manufacturers  FT

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

Bankers 'caused credit crisis for kicks' Telegraph

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II


7 banks closed in Fla., Ga., Ill., Kan., Ariz. AP FDIC


7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2 Mauldin

 

Maine law set foreclosure crisis in motion Stateline

 

US foreclosure pipeline slows  FT

More borrowers stay in homes after defaults

 

Foreclosures spawn new attitude to ownership  FT

Foreclosure pressure on banks grows  FT

 

Wells Fargo defends its foreclosures  FT

 

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS


Radical changes to state pension proposed  FT
Move to simplify arrangements and reduce means-testing

12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China Crash 2011 - Part I: The repetition compulsion of central bankers Janszen

Manias and Meddlers: Secret Past of Chinese Stock Market WSJ
Amid the almost irresistible excitement over China's explosive growth, it is important to understand that the Asian giant has run this exact race before—several times—and the results weren't pretty.

Greenspan's Bubbles to Lose Air in Frothy China Pesek

Wang and US finance chief hold meeting Shanghai Daily

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES

 

 

Key Tax Breaks at Risk as Panel Looks at Cuts WSJ


 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Bernanke Leaps into a Liquidity Trap Hussman
The Fed is pushing on a string.

Fischer `in a Bind' as Investors Bet Inflation May Accelerate BL

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

The Rules Of the Game and Economic Recovery Shales

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

The US Equity Market Is Dead And Only The Taxpayer Is Still Buying Smith

 

˜Head & shoulders’ and ‘double-dips’ Hulbert

Richard Clarida's retrospective on the financial crisis Econbrowser

 

Falling Into the Chasm Krugman

 

G20 FINANCE MINISTERS

 

G20 pledges action on currencies  FT

 
In their final communique on Saturday, the finance ministers said they would “move towards market-determined exchange rate systems that reflect market fundamentals and refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies.” It will work to avoid a “currency war” but has failed to set a specific target on restraining groaning current account imbalances.

The ministers ultimately concluded that the IMF would be given a close supervisory role in ensuring that countries with “persistently large imbalances” were subject to a mutual assessment programme. This would pile peer pressure on countries seen to be running too deeply into surplus or deficit. At future meetings, the G20 members would have to agree on “indicative guidelines” on trade balances, the communique said.     

SURPRIZING ANNOUNCEMENT
The group also reached a surprisingly robust agreement to shift power in the International Monetary Fund away from EU nations, which will lose two seats on the executive board, and boost quota shares to major emerging nations. 

G20 finance ministers, meeting in the South Korean city of Gyeongju, made their first joint pledge not to engineer weak currencies to support exporters, a charge levelled against China by the US.

In their final communique on Saturday, the finance ministers said they would “move towards market-determined exchange rate systems that reflect market fundamentals and refrain from competitive devaluation of currencies.” 

In an attempt to set more concrete targets on the underlying factors behind exchange rates, South Korea and the United States pushed G20 countries to strike a deal under which surpluses and deficits should remain within 4 per cent of gross domestic product. 

South Korean G20 officials said there had been broad sympathy for combatting imbalances in current accounts, even from China which has acknowledged a 4 per cent target chimed with its own forecasts. But an EU official disagreed, saying Chinese officials had met German counterparts to discuss resistance to the US and Korean proposal. All parties agreed the most vocal opponents to a definite target had been Germany, Japan and Brazil, supported by major commodity exporters.

Despite such frictions, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, suggested China and the US were edging towards common ground on the current account, saying that opposition came chiefly from “smaller” nations, such as oil exporters, and observing that China was on track to meet the 4 per cent target.

Despite no agreement in Gyeongju on specific current account targets, the ministers ultimately concluded that the IMF would be given a close supervisory role in ensuring that countries with “persistently large imbalances” were subject to a mutual assessment programme. This would pile peer pressure on countries seen to be running too deeply into surplus or deficit.

At future meetings, the G20 members would have to agree on “indicative guidelines” on trade balances, the communique said.     

George Osborne, Britain’s finance minister, said it was “within the realms of possibility” to strike a more comprehensive deal on the imbalances at a G20 leaders’ summit in Seoul on November 11, arguing the key to a breakthrough would be agreeing targets on a more tailor-made basis.

“We should have something more country specific. Just having a single target risks being too broad a tool,” he told reporters.  

The US has hoped to steer the G20 debate with China away from a narrow focus on currency to the broader root causes of the weak renminbi. When asked about this new approach in addressing the global imbalances, Timothy Geithner, US treasury secretary, praised Beijing for a “very constructive and pragmatic role.”

“China recognises that it cannot afford to rely like it did in the past on such an export-dependent model for growth and, as part of that, it is now starting to allow its exchange rate to rise in response to market forces, and I think that is very promising.”

 

Germany And Brazil Torpedo Currency Deal At The G20  BI

 

Imbalancing act as G20 ministers still fail to deliver King

 

Trade imbalance targets elude G20  FT

Ministerial meeting can only set framework policy

 

Traders snap up stocks and commodities as dollar slumps  FT
G20 conclusion a green light for more selling

 

G-20 Sketches Out Currency Steps  WSJ
The Group of 20 nations are pursuing an accord to end battles over currencies that relies on goodwill and peer pressure to persuade countries to comply with internationally agreed norms, rather than enforceable sanctions.

 

 

IMF REFORM

 

G20 reaches deal on reform of IMF  FT

 

IMF Says G-20 Agreed on ‘Biggest Reform Ever’ (Update1)  BL

Group of 20 nations agreed on an overhaul of the International Monetary Fund that gives a larger voice to emerging market nations, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said.

More than 6 percent of voting rights will be reallocated to underrepresented emerging-market nations and Europe will give up two board seats in the “biggest reform ever in the governance of the institution,” Strauss-Kahn told reporters today in Gyeongju, South Korea. The G-20 also agreed on the structure for a “financial safety net” to stop nascent financial crises before they speed out of control, he said.

The IMF’s board may approve the package in the first week in November, and it will probably take a year for the changes to be put in place, Strauss-Kahn said. The package includes a shift in the composition of the IMF’s executive board and the fund’s 10 biggest shareholders.

Strauss-Kahn called the deal a “historical agreement” as the Washington-based lender takes on a larger role in monitoring the world’s economies, currencies and capital flows. South Korea, the host of this weekend’s meeting of G-20 financial chiefs, proposed the safety net.

G-20 officials also prepared an agreement to avoid competitive devaluations and give the IMF greater sway in assessing economic imbalances among nations.

All-Elected Board

The IMF will move to an all-elected executive board of directors and Europe will give up two seats. Earlier today, a G- 20 official said that the Group of Seven, Brazil, Russia, India and China settled on the plan after a disagreement between the U.S. and Europe over how to increase the role of emerging-market countries on the fund’s board.

Group of 20 leaders pledged last year to increase the voting power of China and others and planned to settle on details before G-20 leaders meet in Seoul in November. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner has cited this plan in his campaign for China to allow its currency, the yuan, to appreciate against the dollar.

Strauss-Kahn said the changes will give the IMF a “totally legitimate board.” European nations will be able to take advantage of the implementation period to work out exactly how the shift in board seats will take place, he said.

After the changes take effect, the fund’s 10 biggest shareholders will comprise the U.S., Japan, four major European economies and Brazil, Russia, India and China.

 

Accord on IMF board masks lack of progress FT

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

Advisers Try to Tame Investors' Appetite for Gold  WSJ

 

To clients who walk in the door craving gold, he makes two arguments. For one, long-term gold prices merely keep pace with inflation, and investors should concentrate instead on their broader goals like what kind of income they would like to generate. For those that won't be swayed, he points toward SPDR Gold Trust, but he keeps the exchange-traded fund at no more than 5% of their overall portfolios.

 

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

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© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.