Gordon T Long

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Hitting the Maturity Wall

 

An Accounting Driven Market Recovery

 


 

 

 

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SULTANS OF SWAP: Explaining $605 Trillion in Derivatives!

 

SULTANS OF SWAP: Fearing the Gearing!

 

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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundre s  READ MOREE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE


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POSTS:  WEEKEND 10-23-10

Last Update: 10/31/2010 05:22 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Weekly Peak- Austerity Versus Stimulus By The Buck, Euro And Pound Peak Theory Research X                  
French Senate passes pension overhaul AP X                  
Are China and Japan on a collision course? Japan Times X                  
The EU Debt Crisis - Why Europe's Avoidance of Automatic Penalties Is a Mistake Spiegel   X                
A Trenchant Tale Of Two States IBD       X            
Global systemic crisis LEAP             X      
Christopher Caldwell Mandelbrot and market risk FT             X      
Banks Fight Two-Front War Over Flawed Mortgages With Investors, Homeowners Bloomberg                 X  
Dirty (Paper) Work: Foreclosure Mess Gets Messier Sonders                 X  
How Joseph Lents Dodged Foreclosure for Eight Years and Started a Movement Bloomberg                 X  
Big Problem for Banks: Due Process Nocera                 X  
The long shadow over Canada's housing market G&M                 X  
Plosser Says Fed in `Difficult Spot' on Mortgage-Debt Buybacks Bloomberg                 X  
Hey banks, buy back these crappy loans CNN                 X  
Plunging Mortgage Refinancing Rates Aid the Thrifty NYT                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
China: Are Fears Of An Overheating Economy Just Hot Air? NTrust             X      
Price surge fuels talk of 1 more rise in rates Shanghai Daily             X      
China and Inflation Asia Sentinel             X      
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
The Yen and the Misguided Policies of the Federal Reserve Smithers                    
Monetary Watch October 2010, Banks printing money again, QE II in November? Pollaro                    
Is The Fed Sorry It Promised QE2? Harding                    
Daly of the SF Fed: We are at Risk of a Long period of Sustained Disinflation Economist View                    
Committee for Monetary Research and Education Speech Hinde Capital                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Letter to CFTC (Below)                      
FLASH CRASH                      
LiveDeal Flash Smash Sends Stock Up 365%, Nukes Shorts ZH                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Market Is Facing Major Headwinds Comstock                    
Shunning of the Bulls BMO Focus                    

G20 MEETING

                     
G-20 Communique on Currencies, Financial Supervision, IMF Board: Full Text Bloomberg                    
G20 officials pour cold water on US proposals Reuters                    
Rebalancing the World Noland                    
US-China conflict may be central at G20 summit China Daily                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Geithner Said He Won't Let Dollar Fall, Mantega Says Bloomberg                    
Will the US Treasury Defend the US-Dollar? Dorsch                    
Brazil: Let's Try Some Old-Fashioned "Capital Control" First NTrust                    
QE: The Numberless Oblivion Xie                    
Can Central Banks Still Influence Exchange Rates? Project Syndicate                    
Global trade wars: China turns up the heat CNN                    
China Fear of Echoing Post-Plaza Japan Limits `Hyundai Accord' Bloomberg                    
Emerging economies get more power at IMF Yahoo Finance                    
Strauss-Kahn: `Biggest Reform Ever' of IMF Bloomberg                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
                       
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Returning to the old normal Hulbert                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-23-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

Weekly Peak- Austerity Versus Stimulus By The Buck, Euro And Pound Peak Theory Research
In the wake of the sovereign debt crisis, Europe has chosen to respond with measures of austerity as various euro-zone countries pledge to cut spending dramatically in order to bring their respective budget deficits down to a few percentage points of GDP apiece. These measures also come in the much bigger wake of the credit crisis of 2008. Even more severe is the United Kingdom’s recently revealed plan to cut £81 billion or a sum equivalent to 4.5% of projected GDP and characterized by the FT as “the most drastic budget cuts in living memory, outstripping measures taken by other advanced economies which are also under pressure to sharply reduce spending.” In fact, the UK’s public sector will lose 500,000 jobs as a result of these cuts. The United States, on the other hand, is favoring stimulus to austerity by maintaining near-zero rates and planning another round of quantitative easing or the buying of longer-term Treasury securities to flood the system with liquidity. The exact amount and timing of QE2 is unknown, but it comes on top of the $1.7 trillion pushed into the system by the Fed starting in 2009.

 

Peak Theory Research

The Weekly Peak - October 22, 2010  

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

French Senate passes pension overhaul AP

 

UK

 

IRELAND


JAPAN

 

Are China and Japan on a collision course? Japan Times

 

USA

 

 

 

 

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

The EU Debt Crisis - Why Europe's Avoidance of Automatic Penalties Is a Mistake Spiegel


3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

A Trenchant Tale Of Two States IBD

 
In Texas, the payroll count is back to pre-recession levels. California is nearly 1.5 million jobs in the hole. Why such a difference? Chalk it up to taxes, regulation and attitude.

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II



7- RISK REVERSAL

 

Global systemic crisis LEAP

 

Christopher Caldwell Mandelbrot and market risk  FT

 

Mandelbrot was not the only analyst to warn that our financial system was headed for a reckoning. However he zeroed in with unusual specificity on the besetting flaw – models that understated risk – and his conclusions grew out of rich and varied work in the natural sciences. After a career at IBM, Mandelbrot taught at Harvard, Yale and the École Polytechnique. He invented the science of “fractals”, geometric shapes that, if submitted to a simple mathematical operation, generate ever smaller, related shapes and a pattern of increasing complexity. Fractals were just as fruitful in generating metaphors and analogies. In the 1960s, Mandelbrot showed Britain’s coastline could never be measured in a way that would produce a consensus on its length. An inch-long stretch was not necessarily less complex and jagged than the coastline as a whole – it just looked that way. As your instruments got more sophisticated and measured more crannies, the coastline got longer and longer.

When Mandelbrot began writing about markets half a century ago, he was struck by self-similarity, there, too. Markets “scaled”. Studying the history of cotton prices, he formed an impression, shared with many physicists and economists, that “all charts look alike”. Without the legends, you can’t tell whether you are looking at a century’s worth of data or a day’s. If anything, scalability was more pronounced in money than in science. All such charts were hard to read, because of the way chance creates “spurious patterns and pseudo-cycles”.

This work led Mandelbrot to study the maths that financial analysts used to build day-to-day positions. Eugene Fama, developer of the efficient market hypothesis, was one of his students, but Mandelbrot grew less impressed with such theories as years went on. The capital asset pricing model developed by several analysts in the 1960s, Harry Markowitz’s modern portfolio theory, the Black-Scholes equation for pricing options – all of these came in for Mandelbrot’s scorn.

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Banks Fight Two-Front War Over Flawed Mortgages With Investors, Homeowners BL
“It’s going to be trench warfare with years of lawyering.  The banks can’t afford to lose.”

 

Dirty (Paper) Work: Foreclosure Mess Gets Messier Sonders

 

How Joseph Lents Dodged Foreclosure for Eight Years and Started a Movement BL

 

Big Problem for Banks: Due Process NYT (Nocera)

The long shadow over Canada's housing market G&M

Plosser Says Fed in `Difficult Spot' on Mortgage-Debt Buybacks BL

The Federal Reserve’s effort to recover taxpayer money used in bailouts while also ensuring the stability of the financial system puts it in a “difficult spot,” said Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed.

The New York Fed, which acquired mortgage debt in the 2008 rescues of Bear Stearns Cos. and American International Group Inc., has joined a bondholder group that aims to force Bank of America Corp. to buy back some bad home loans packaged into $47 billion of securities.

On the one hand, the Fed has “a duty to the taxpayer to try to collect on behalf of the taxpayer on these mortgages,” Plosser said today at an event in Philadelphia.

“At the same time, as a regulator, and as someone who’s trying to preserve financial stability and manage the oversight of banks and financial institutions, we’ve got another hat that we wear that says, ‘Should we be in the business of suing the financial institutions that we are in fact responsible for supervising?’”

 

Hey banks, buy back these crappy loans CNN

Plunging Mortgage Refinancing Rates Aid the Thrifty NYT


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China: Are Fears Of An Overheating Economy Just Hot Air? NTrust

Price surge fuels talk of 1 more rise in rates Shanghai Daily

China and Inflation Asia Sentinel

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

The Yen and the Misguided Policies of the Federal Reserve Smithers

Monetary Watch October 2010, Banks printing money again, QE II in November? Pollaro

Is The Fed Sorry It Promised QE2? Harding

Daly of the SF Fed: We are at Risk of a Long period of Sustained Disinflation Economist’s View

Committee for Monetary Research and Education Speech Hinde Capital

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

LiveDeal Flash Smash Sends Stock Up 365%, Nukes Shorts ZHedge

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Market Is Facing Major Headwinds Comstock

 

The current market rally is not based on a self-sustained typical economic recovery, but on blind faith that the Fed can pull out a magic wand and cure everything with another round of quantitative easing (QE2).  As we pointed out last week, this a desperate attempt by the Fed to try non-conventional means to get the economy going again after a massive dose of conventional measures resulted in failure.  The members of the FOMC know this, but with further fiscal measures off the table, they are aware that they are the only game in town.  The Fed's acknowledgement that the economy is in trouble is again highlighted by the latest Beige Book released yesterday.  The following are some excerpts from the report:

"National economic activity continued to rise, albeit at a modest pace..consumer spending was steady to up slightly, but consumers remained price-sensitive, and purchases were mostly limited to necessities and non-discretionary items..Housing markets remained weak..Most reports suggested overall home sales were sluggish or declining..Home inventories were elevated or rising..Conditions in the commercial real estate market were subdued, and construction was expected to remain weak.Reports suggested that rental rates continued to decline for most commercial property types..industry contacts appeared to believe that the commercial real estate and construction sectors would remain weak for some time..Hiring remained limited, with many firms reluctant to add to permanent payrolls, given economic softness..Future capital spending plans appeared to be limited"

So there you have an outline of the anemic economic picture in the Fed's own words.  To be sure, they indicated some strong points as well.   But the weakness in consumer spending, housing, capital expenditures, commercial real estate and employment pretty much accounts for some 85% of the overall economy.

In addition some of the major problems that worried the market earlier have not really gone away.  The sovereign debt problems of the weaker EU nations have been papered over without being solved and are still lingering just beneath the surface.  The looming currency wars that were shoved down the road by the recent G-20 meeting are also a major threat to the global economy. 

Furthermore the Chinese housing bubble previously highlighted by bearish investor Jim Chanos and others has now appeared on the front page of the New York Times.  A new district of the city of Ordos, China, covering 12 square miles and consisting of tens of thousands of houses and dozens of office buildings remains a virtual ghost town, cited as "proof of a speculative real estate bubble that will soon pop, sending shock waves through the banking system of a country that..has been the prime engine of global growth."  According to the article there are as much as a dozen other ghost towns similar to Ordos.

Another looming crisis that will not go away anytime soon is the recently revealed mess with mortgage foreclosure paper work.  This is no mere technicality that some would have you believe.  Due to the complications introduced by securitized mortgages and the slicing and dicing of mortgages into various tranches, it appears that large numbers of mortgage proceedings were brought by parties with no legal right to do so. 

The gravity of the situation is highlighted by the fact that the New York Federal reserve bank and Freddie Mac along with giant investment houses such as Pimco, Blackrock, Neuberger Berman and Met Life, sued Bank of America to take back securitized mortgages that they bought from the bank or its Countrywide subsidiary.  Other leading banks may subsequently be sued as well, and other purchasers are likely to join the fray.   In addition the situation is being investigated by the FBI, various federal regulatory agencies and most of the states' attorney-generals.  With the huge sums of money involved, it does not take much imagination to realize that this could turn out to be another big threat to the financial system.

All in all it seems to us that the market rally is based on the shaky assumption that the Fed can now solve all the above problems with unproven, non-conventional monetary measures that couldn't be solved by the massive stimulus provided by either conventional monetary or fiscal tools.  With the prospect of QE2 already baked in the cake, we think the market is highly vulnerable in the period ahead.

 

Shunning of the Bulls BMO Focus

 
“One can hardly fault investors for losing patience with stocks. The total return of the S&P 500 including re-invested dividends has been a dismal -0.2% per year over the past decade...”

 

G20 MEETING

 

G-20 Communique on Currencies, Financial Supervision, IMF Board: Full Text BL

 

G20 pledges action on currencies  FT

Finance ministers fail to set specific target on imbalances

 

G20 officials pour cold water on US proposals Reuters

 

GYEONGJU, South Korea (Reuters) - The United States sought to corral reluctant finance leaders into a deal that would commit emerging markets to cut their current account surpluses and allow their currencies to rise at a meeting on Friday.

G20 finance officials started their formal meetings on Friday with nations from the developing world and Japan dismissing the U.S. proposals which it says are aimed at defusing tensions that economists fear could trigger trade wars.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in a letter to finance leaders that was seen by Reuters, said "countries with persistent surpluses should undertake structural, fiscal and exchange rate policies to boost domestic sources of growth".

In return, countries such as the United States that are running big budget and trade deficits would adopt "sustainable medium-term fiscal targets".

Geithner's overtures have already been rejected by countries as diverse as India and Japan and markets are sceptical of a universal deal that would address global economic imbalances and tackle attempts by many emerging economies and others to weaken their currencies.

While the G20 won praise for coordination of stimulus packages during the global financial crisis, its sense of unity has gradually evaporated in the face of strains resulting from unprecedented efforts to revive global growth.

"There is an action plan, but there is an awful lot of complaints, proposals," Russian finance official Andrey Bokarev said ahead of the meetings.

A financial source who met with Geithner in South Korea said that the U.S. official had asked countries to limit their current account surpluses or deficits to 4 percent of gross domestic product, something that few G20 members felt able to accept.

China, India, Saudi Arabia and Russia are all running substantial surpluses while the U.S. is in deficit.

"We need to talk about it first, but numerical targets are unrealistic," Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said.

The issue of addressing "undervalued" currencies will also tax leaders, although Canadian policymakers said that China had agreed in principle to move towards more foreign exchange flexibility.

The U.S. dollar was down 0.27 percent against a basket of six major currencies , near a low for the year struck last Friday and currency strategists said there would be further weakness if the G20 disappointed.

CURRENCY ISSUE REMAINS UNANSWERED

Geithner's letter made no reference to the anticipated language of the final communique on foreign exchange arrangements.

He did state that G20 countries "should commit to refrain from exchange rate policies designed to achieve competitive advantage by either weakening their currency or preventing the appreciation of an undervalued currency".

The best the meeting could hope for, other officials said, was a statement on avoiding competitive currency undervaluation and some indicated there would not be any significant hardening of rhetoric.

"The reference to avoiding 'competitive currency undervaluation' as a goal between big economies is not new but appeared in a previous G20 meeting in the UK. It will likely appear again in the communique this time," a senior G20 negotiator who spoke on condition of anonymity told Reuters.

Many emerging market policymakers are loath to allow their currencies to rise substantially and blame the United States for financial mismanagement that led to the global financial crisis and accuse it of engaging in its own devaluation by flooding markets with liquidity from its quantitative easing policies.

That has had the effect of pushing a wall of money into emerging markets like Brazil, spurring them into action to stem capital flows which have boosted their currencies and asset prices and complicated fiscal and monetary policy.

The language of the last G20 summit stressed the need to "refrain from competitive devaluations" and anything stronger would mark a significant move from countries like China and host South Korea , said Credit Suisse currency strategist Olivier Desbarres.

"You would have to commit to allowing your currency to appreciate," he said.

 

Rebalancing the World Noland

 

US-China conflict may be central at G20 summit China Daily

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Geithner Said He Won't Let Dollar Fall, Mantega Says BL

 

Will the US Treasury Defend the US-Dollar? Dorsch


The Fed has engineered the devaluation of the US-dollar, by issuing a steady drumbeat of threats to unleash QE-2, upon the world money markets. Bond dealers reckon the Fed could print a minimum of $500-billion in the months ahead, or it might decide to monetize the entire US-budget deficit for this fiscal year, projected at $1.2-trillion. Also greasing the skids under the US-dollar has been the steady slide of US Treasury yields compared to German bund yields.

US-lawmakers and President Obama have seized upon America's widening trade deficit, which reached -$49.7-billion in June 2010, to take aim against the Chinese yuan. Over the last 12-months, the US-trade deficit with China reached $257-billion, and is running 21% above the pace from a year earlier. The deficit with China as a share of America's balance of payments is now over 40%, compared to just 20% in 2001. Year-to-date imports from China are $229-billion, while exports are only $55.8-billion, leaving the ratio of imports to exports at 4.9.The average for all nations' imports-to-exports with the United States is a ratio of 1.6.

Beijing intervenes regularly in its foreign exchange market to rig the value of the yuan, and it's acquired a massive $2.65-trillion in FX reserves, while keeping the Chinese yuan undervalued by 40% against the US-dollar, on a trade weighted basis. Democrats and Republicans in the US-Congress aren't willing to wait for Beijing to revalue the yuan at a snail's pace over the next several years. In Hong Kong, the 12-month yuan forward contract is trading at 6.4425 /dollar indicating that traders figure that Beijing would only allow the yuan to rise by a paltry +3.2% rise against the dollar over the next 12-months.

US-lawmakers aim to level the playing filed in one fell swoop. On Sept 29th, the US-House passed legislation by an overwhelming margin, 348-79, to allow the Commerce department to apply tariffs on Chinese goods entering the United States. In the past, the Senate has pushed for tariffs of 25% on Chinese imports. "There is no question that China manipulates its currency in order to subsidize Chinese exports," said Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama. "The only question is: Why is the administration protecting China by refusing to designate it as a currency manipulator?" he asked.

On October 16th, Treasury chief Geithner backed away from a showdown with Beijing over the value of the yuan, by delaying a much-anticipated decision on whether to label China as a currency manipulator until after the Group-of-20 summit on November 11th. "Since September 2, 2010, the pace of the yuan's appreciation has accelerated to a rate of more than 1% per month. If sustained over time, this would correct a significantly undervalued currency," the Treasury said.

On October 16th, Treasury chief Geithner backed away from a showdown with Beijing over the value of the yuan, by delaying a much-anticipated decision on whether to label China as a currency manipulator until after the Group-of-20 summit on November 11th. "Since September 2, 2010, the pace of the yuan's appreciation has accelerated to a rate of more than 1% per month. If sustained over time, this would correct a significantly undervalued currency," the Treasury said.

 

Brazil: Let's Try Some Old-Fashioned "Capital Control" First NTrust

 

QE: The Numberless Oblivion Xie

 
"If you print a trillion, I'll print a trillion" – and other instances of behavior leading the world toward high inflation and political instability

Can Central Banks Still Influence Exchange Rates? Project-Syndicate

 

Global trade wars: China turns up the heat CNN

 

China Fear of Echoing Post-Plaza Japan Limits `Hyundai Accord' BL

 

Emerging economies get more power at IMF Yahoo Finance 

 

Strauss-Kahn: `Biggest Reform Ever' of IMF  BL

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

Returning to the old normal Hulbert

Gold and stocks this week have gone separate ways

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.