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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundre s  READ MOREE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE


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POSTS:  THURSDAY 10-21-10

 

Last Update: 10/22/2010 06:26 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
France faces more protests as pension vote looms Reuters X                  
French fuel depots forced open, rioting resumes Wash Post X                  
UK government unveils $128bn cuts FT X                  
Britain Details Radical Cuts in Spending, Citing Debt NYT X                  
Chancellor spells out austerity gamble FT X                  
A spending review for a diminished country FT Wolf X                  
The day they took £81bn out of Britain FT X                  
O Canada! Outside the Box X                  
Can Canada afford the oil sands? Rubin X                  
Iceland to Water Down Debt Relief Amid Pension Fund Objections Bloomberg X                  
USA                      
Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell 23,000 Last Week to 452,000 Bloomberg X                  
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase for Third Month Bloomberg X                  
Philadelphia-Area Manufacturing Expanded in October Bloomberg X                  
Pimco Says U.S. Economy Will Disappoint With 1.75% Growth Bloomberg X                  
The Basel Committee's response to the financial crisis: report to the G20 BIS   X                
CEE Credit Monitor: Eastern Europe - Revival of credit? DB Research         X          
U.S. Seeks Global Pact for Banks wsj           X        
Mortgage Applications Slump as Fixed Interest Rates Rise Reuters                 X  
CFTC judge claims colleague issued biased rulings Futures Mag                 X  
Investors and White House press banks over mortgages Reuters                 X  
Mortgage Crisis Set to Kick Into a Higher Gear Fox                 X  
N.Y. Fed: Banks Should Buy Mortgages NY Times                 X  
The Letter The Fed, PIMCO And Others Sent To Bank Of America Over Putbacks BI                 X  
FBI Looking at Financial Industry's Foreclosure Mess AP                 X  
U.S. probe targeting foreclosure documents Wash Post                 X  
U.S. eyes criminal violations in foreclosure crisis CNN                 X  
Something has to give in housing market Australian                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Companies Look to Raise Prices WSJ       X            
China Rate Hike Reflects Property Bubble Concerns GInsights             X      
China Rate Move May Lure Capital, Complicating Inflation Fight Bloomberg             X      
Chinese city has many buildings, but few people NDTV             X      
Lie of the Tiger Foreign Policy             X      
Chinese growth slows to 9.6% FT             X      
China Growth Slows WSJ             X      
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Dollar plummets on talk of $500bn Fed stimulus plan Telegraph                    
Fed Ignores Gold, Targets Higher Inflation And Plays With Fire Forbes                    
U.S. Historical Experience with Deflation FRBSL                    
Nobody at the helm ATimes                    
Harrison: The Fed Is "Pushing Water with a Fork” TTicker                    
Fed eyes flexible approach to stimulus FT                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
Doomsday Capitalism: Revolution in 22 tweets MW                    
FLASH CRASH                      
Tudor’s Jones Says May 6 Plunge Shows Need for Tighter Limits BW                    
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Reality Check Cornerstone                    
The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith                    
Will the markets tank in November? La Monica                    
Equities Edge Toward a Top                      
S&P 500 hesitates at longer-term resistance MW                    
24th Consecutive Outflow From Domestic Stock Mutual Funds Is In The Books ZH                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Mervyn King warning : A 1930s-style trade war would be 'ruinous' Daily Mail                    
Mervyn King Bloomberg                    
Tide of history runs against would-be G20 grand bargain Reuters                    
US-waged war of currencies China Daily                    
Currency war looms over G-20 AFP                    
Geithner's Goal- Rebalanced World Economy WSJ                    
Slim Says `Currency Wars' May Mean `Excessive' Commodities Prices Bloomberg                    
Currency War Can Be Solved With U.S. Austerity, Faber Says BW                    
The currency wars explained- Our interactive guide to the actions of the key countries FT                    
Bric nations grow weary of G20 rhetoric FT                    
U.S. Seeks G-20 Cooperation on Currencies, Pushes China on Yuan Bloomberg                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
Morgan Stanley suffers $91m loss FT                    
Credit Suisse's Net Profit Slumps WSJ                    
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

Click to Enlarge





10-21-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

SPAIN

 

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

France faces more protests as pension vote looms Reuters


French fuel depots forced open, rioting resumes WP

 

UK

 

UK government unveils $128bn cuts  FT

 

Britain Details Radical Cuts in Spending, Citing Debt NYT

 

Chancellor spells out austerity gamble  FT

Osborne should not squeeze for squeezing’s sake

 

A spending review for a diminished country  FT Wolf

 
Details of the package. The big cuts in major spending departments are in support for local government (a cumulative cut of 27 per cent in real terms by 2014-15), in business innovation and skills (down 25 per cent, largely because of cuts in support for teaching in higher education) and in the Home Office and the justice department (both down 23 per cent). In addition to health and development assistance, schools, defence and Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have come out at least relatively unscathed. But pain will be felt everywhere. Even protected health will find this a brutal change from the previous glut.

 

The day they took £81bn out of Britain  FT

 

CANADA

O Canada! Outside The Box

 

Can Canada afford the oil sands? Rubin

 

ICELAND

Iceland to Water Down Debt Relief Amid Pension Fund Objections BL


JAPAN

 

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous

Thursday, Oct. 21
8:30 am Jobless claims 10/17 452,000 450,000 475,000
10 am Leading indicators Sept. 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
10 am Philly Fed Oct. 1.0 1.4 -0.7

 


Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell 23,000 Last Week to 452,000 BL

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase for Third Month BL

Philadelphia-Area Manufacturing Expanded in October BL


Pimco Says U.S. Economy Will Disappoint With 1.75% Growth BL

 

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

The Basel Committee's response to the financial crisis: report to the G20 BIS

 

 

The Basel Committee's response to the financial crisis: report to the G20 describes the measures taken by the Committee and its governing body of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision to strengthen the resilience of banks and the global banking system. The Basel Committee reforms address the identified weaknesses of the pre-crisis banking sector, thus delivering on the G20 mandate given at the Pittsburgh summit to develop a more resilient banking sector.

The new global standards to address both firm-specific and broader, systemic risks have been referred to as "Basel III". Basel III is comprised of the following building blocks, which were agreed and issued by the Committee and its governing body between July 2009 and September 2010:

  • higher quality of capital, with a focus on common equity, and higher levels of capital to ensure banks can better absorb the types of losses like those associated with this past crisis;
  • better coverage of risk, especially for capital market activities;
  • an internationally harmonised leverage ratio to constrain excessive risk taking and to serve as a backstop to the risk-based capital measure, with a view to migrating to a Pillar 1 treatment based on appropriate review and calibration;
  • capital buffers, which should be built up in good times so that they can be drawn down in periods of stress;
  • minimum global liquidity standards to improve banks' resilience to acute short term stress and to improve longer term funding; and
  • stronger standards for supervision, public disclosures and risk management.

The Basel Committee is also contributing to the Financial Stability Board initiative to address the risks of globally systemic banking institutions by developing approaches to identify them and ways to raise their loss absorbing capacity, including work on capital surcharges, contingent capital, and bail-in-able debt.

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 


5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 

CEE Credit Monitor: Eastern Europe - Revival of credit? DB Research

6-BANKING CRISIS II


U.S. Seeks Global Pact for Banks  WSJ

7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

Mortgage Applications Slump as Fixed Interest Rates Rise Reuters

 

CFTC judge claims colleague issued biased rulings Futures Mag  PDF File

 

“On Judge Levine's first week on the job, nearly twenty years ago, he came into my office and stated that he had promised Wendy Gramm, then Chairwoman of the Commission, that we would never rule in a complainant's favor.”

 

Investors and White House press banks over mortgages Reuters


Mortgage Crisis Set to Kick Into a Higher Gear FOX

 
N.Y. Fed: Banks Should Buy Mortgages NYT


The Letter The Fed, PIMCO And Others Sent To Bank Of America Over Putbacks  BI


FBI Looking at Financial Industry's Foreclosure Mess AP


U.S. probe targeting foreclosure documents WP

 

U.S. eyes criminal violations in foreclosure crisis CNN

Something has to give in housing market Australian


10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT



13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

Companies Look to Raise Prices  WSJ

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE


China Rate Hike Reflects Property Bubble Concerns GInsight Pettis

China Rate Move May Lure Capital, Complicating Inflation Fight BL

Chinese city has many buildings, but few people NDTV
People are using real estate as an investment, as a place to store cash — they treat it like gold.  They’re stockpiling empty units. This is going on in cities of virtually every size.”

Lie of the Tiger Foreign Policy

Chinese growth slows to 9.6%  FT

China Growth Slows  WSJ

19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Dollar plummets on talk of $500bn Fed stimulus plan Telegraph

Fed Ignores Gold, Targets Higher Inflation And Plays With Fire Forbes

U.S. Historical Experience with Deflation FRBSL
 
Nobody at the helm ATimes

Harrison: The Fed Is "Pushing Water with a Fork” TTicker  Peel

Fed eyes flexible approach to stimulus  FT
Asset buys would be under constant review

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

Doomsday Capitalism: Revolution in 22 tweets Farrell

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

Tudor’s Jones Says May 6 Plunge Shows Need for Tighter Limits BW

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Reality Check Cornerstone

 

The Stock Market's Long Decline Has Begun Smith


Will the markets tank in November? La Monica


Equities Edge Toward a Top Kass

 

 S&P 500 hesitates at longer-term resistance  MW

 

nvestors' unjustified blind faith in the success of QE2 has increased the US stock market's degree of risk relative to the reward.

 

24th Consecutive Outflow From Domestic Stock Mutual Funds Is In The Books  ZH

 

At this point what is there to say that has not been said already 23 times in a row? ICI reports the latest fund flow data: flows into everything are up... except domestic stocks. The only silver lining: the outflow is declining, and we may just see an inflow next week. Although at $81billion in redemptions YTD, even an uptick eventually would be too little to late. The only marginal buyers continue to be the primary dealers (using POMO cash), desperate pension funds (getting led to the slaughter), and algos which churn stocks a few million times per day, end on a loss, but then collect liquidity rebates from the exchanges and are happy. Aside from these three, there is nobody else.

 

Weekly flows:

 

Cumulative flows:

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Mervyn King warning : A 1930s-style trade war would be 'ruinous' Daily Mail

 

Mervyn King  BL
“The need to act in the collective interest has yet to be recognized, and, unless it is, it will be only a matter of time before one or more countries resort to trade protectionism”

 

Tide of history runs against would-be G20 grand bargain Reuters

 

US-waged war of currencies China Daily

The world's largest debtor is using dollar dominance and debts to suck the wealth from emerging economies

Currency war looms over G-20 AFP

 

Geithner's Goal- Rebalanced World Economy  WSJ
Geithner said he would use weekend meetings of G-20 finance ministers to advance efforts to "rebalance" the world economy so it is less reliant on U.S. consumers.

 

Slim Says `Currency Wars' May Mean `Excessive' Commodities Prices BL

 

Currency War Can Be Solved With U.S. Austerity, Faber Says BW

 

The currency wars explained- Our interactive guide to the actions of the key countries  FT

 

Bric nations grow weary of G20 rhetoric  FT

 

U.S. Seeks G-20 Cooperation on Currencies, Pushes China on Yuan  BL

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

Morgan Stanley suffers $91m loss FT

 

Credit Suisse's Net Profit Slumps  WSJ

 
Credit Suisse said third-quarter net profit shrivelled to $627.8 million on low investment-banking volumes and subdued activity by wealthy private clients.

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

THURSDAY

10-21-10

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31            

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TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.