Gordon T Long

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CURRENCY WARS: Misguided Economic Policy

 

The critical issues in America stem from minimally a blatantly ineffective public policy, but overridingly a failed and destructive Economic Policy. These policy errors are directly responsible for the opening salvos of the Currency War clouds now looming overhead.

 

Don’t be fooled for a minute. The issue of Yuan devaluation is a political distraction from the real issue – a failure of US policy leadership. In my opinion the US Fiscal and Monetary policies are misguided. They are wrong! I wrote a 66 page thesis paper entitled “Extend & Pretend” in the fall of 2009 detailing why the proposed Keynesian policy direction was flawed and why it would fail. I additionally authored a full series of articles from January through August in a broadly published series entitled “Extend & Pretend” detailing the predicted failures as they unfolded. Don’t let anyone tell you that what has happened was not fully predictable!

 

Now after the charade of Extend & Pretend has run out of momentum and more money printing is again required through Quantitative Easing (we predicted QE II was inevitable in March), the responsible US politicos have cleverly ignited the markets with QE II money printing euphoria in the run-up to the mid-term elections. Craftily they are taking political camouflage behind an “undervalued Yuan” as the culprit for US problems. Remember, patriotism is the last bastion of scoundre s  READ MOREE

   

 

PRESERVE & PROTECT: The Jaws of Death

 

The United States is facing both a structural and demand problem - it is not the cyclical recessionary business cycle or the fallout of a credit supply crisis which the Washington spin would have you believe.

 

It is my opinion that the Washington political machine is being forced to take this position, because it simply does not know what to do about the real dilemma associated with the implications of the massive structural debt and deficits facing the US.  This is a politically dangerous predicament because the reality is we are on the cusp of an imminent and significant collapse in the standard of living for most Americans.

 

The politicos’ proven tool of stimulus spending, which has been the silver bullet solution for decades to everything that has even hinted of being a problem, is clearly no longer working. Monetary and Fiscal policy are presently no match for the collapse of the Shadow Banking System. A $2.1 Trillion YTD drop in Shadow Banking Liabilities has become an insurmountable problem for the Federal Reserve without a further and dramatic increase in Quantitative Easing. The fallout from this action will be an intractable problem which we will face for the next five to eight years, resulting in the “Jaws of Death” for the American public.  READ MORE


READER ROADMAP -  2010 TIPPING POINTS aid to positioning COMMENTARY

 

 

 

POSTS:  MONDAY 10-18-10

 

Last Update: 10/19/2010 02:22 AM

SCHEDULE: 1st Pass: 5:30AM EST, 2nd Pass: 8:00 AM, 3rd Pass 10:30 AM. Last Pass 5:30 PM

ARTICLE SOURCE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
                       
Portugal's Growth May Slow to 0.2% in 2011 on Deficit Steps, Ministry Says Bloomberg X                  
UK Think Tank Forecasts 50% Chance Of Economic Contraction BI X                  
Bank of England to Expand Its Stimulus Program by $160 Billion, CEBR Says Bloomberg X                  
Osborne to squeeze welfare budget FT X                  
Hungary's Economic Game Plan Time X                  
An Angry Ireland Calls Out Europe On Its Bullshit Stress Test ZH X                  
A Japanese-Style Recession Could Be The Saving Grace For The US Dollar BI X                  
U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Rose to Four-Month High Bloomberg X                  
Luxury-Goods Sales Seen Highest Since 2007 Bloomberg X                  
Industrial production, Capacity Utilization down in September Federal Reserve X                  
M2 Update- 14th Consecutive Weekly Increase Even As Main Street Accelerates Cash Withdrawal From Banks ZH     X              
Cities Use This Accounting Trick To Hide Massive Unfunded Pension Liabilities BI       X            
How To Strategically Default On Your Mortgage And Make Life Miserable For Your Bank BI                 X  
Here's The Devious Reason Why Banks May Be Releasing A Wave Of Mortgage Modifications BI                 X  
CNBC predicts Congress will retroactively legalize foreclosure fraud Raw Story                 X  
Foreclosure Fraud & $45 Trillion Max Keiser                 X  
The Subprime Debacle: Act 2 Mauldin                 X  
Mortgage Mess Puts Homeowners in Limbo WSJ                 X  
                       
ARTICLE SOURCE 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
                       
Lack of demand blamed for US jobs level FT   X                
                       
                       
CENTRAL BANKING & MONETARY POLICY                      
Federal Reserve urged to act on economy FT                    
Desperate ECB- No Really, We're Going To Keep Printing Euros Like Crazy, Too! BI                    
QE Is Futile -- The US Just Needs To Accept A Lower Standard Of Living For 10 Years BI                    
The dawn of daredevil central bankers MW                    
GENERAL INTEREST                      
                       
MARKET WARNINGS                      
Pension Funds Flee Stocks WSJ                    
A Short History of Stock Dividends dshort                    
Percent Buy Index Versus Bullish Percent Index Swenlin                    
Art Cashin Explains Why The Stock Market Is Broken, Shares More Perspectives On Hyperinflation ZH                    
Goldman Sachs Admits The Truth- "The Economy Is Not The Market And QE2 Is Not A Panacea" ZH                    

CURRENCY WARS

                     
Why the U.S. Has Launched a New Financial World World War Michael Hudson                    
Fed Stance Knocks Down Dollar for 5th Week Newsmax                    
FT in depth- Currency wars FT                    
Controls on currencies ‘doomed’ FT                    
Both China and US are at fault in currency war FT                    
The Last Resort Of A Dying Economic System- From "Beggar Thy Neighbor" To "Beggar Thyself" ZH                    
Q3 EARNINGS                      
MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION                      
Currency War Germany about to lose 66 Percent of its gold reserves Chaos Theorien                    
                       
VIDEO TO WATCH                      
                       

Complete Legend to the Right, Top Items below.
Articles with highlights, graphics and any pertinent analysis found below.

1

         

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY

TODAY'S TIPPING POINTS UPDATE

RED ALERT

AMBER ALERT

ACTIVITY

MONITOR

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10-18-10

 

GEO-POLITICAL TENSIONS - ISRAEL / KOREA / IRAN

 

IRAN

ISREAL

KOREA

 

1- SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

 

SOVEREIGNS

 

 

GREECE

 

PORTUGAL

Portugal's Growth May Slow to 0.2% in 2011 on Deficit Steps, Ministry Says BL

GERMANY

 

FRANCE

 

UK

UK Think Tank Forecasts 50% Chance Of Economic Contraction  BI

 
Given the negative economic effect of spending cuts being pushed in the UK, expect monetary policy to be extremely stimulative as a counter-balance. This means one hundred billion pounds of additional bond buying from the central bank, and no interest rate hike until 'late 2012'. Yet even this may not be enough to stave off an economic contraction:

Bloomberg:

“We expect the authorities to push the monetary policy levers hard in the opposite direction to the fiscal policy levers,” the CEBR said in the statement.

The CEBR’s forecast for economic growth in the first three months of 2011 is 0.1 percent, which implies there is almost a 50 percent chance the economy will contract during the quarter, according to the report.

 

Bank of England to Expand Its Stimulus Program by $160 Billion, CEBR Says BL

 

Osborne to squeeze welfare budget  FT

 

 

HUNGARY

Hungary's Economic Game Plan TIME

 

IRELAND

An Angry Ireland Calls Out Europe On Its Bullshit Stress Test  ZH

 
Remember when the pathetic farce that was the stress test presumably prevented Europe's collapse, and served as the inflection point preventing the EUR from hitting parity with the USD? Well, one of the banks that the "stress test" uncovered to be solvent was the recently insolvent Allied Irish Bank, which earlier this month needed a taxpayer injection of billions to presumably make sure that European creditors (and likely Goldman Sachs, very much like the case in Anglo Irish) never see even one dime lost. And today, an Irish Member of the European Parliament Alan Kelly said he intends to write to the EU Competition Commissioner to discover just how it is that one of Ireland's top banks slipped through the stress test cracks only to require a bail out mere months later. It appears that slowly everyone in Europe is starting to turn against the trillions in German bank liabilities that stand to be impaired, and lead to a systemic collapse, unless local taxpayers dutifully reach into their back pocket and make sure fat bankers continue their worry-free existence.


JAPAN

A Japanese-Style Recession Could Be The Saving Grace For The US Dollar  BI

 

 

As much as this trend is alarming, there is a silver lining in all this.  Japan had near zero interest rates and deflationary pressures for two decades now.  Property prices have never recovered since the boom years of the 80s.  The Stock Market Index is barely 1/4 of it's peak in 1990.  And yet, the Japanese currency has continued to make gains against the US Dollar.

It has also performed remarkably well against other currencies since the financial crisis.  Although this may seem somewhat counter-intuitive, despite near zero interest rates and essentially no return on Japanese denominated assets, the currency has remained strong.

If the US were to follow a similar fate as Japan, it would be a nightmare for property and equity prices.  But there may just be some hope for the US Dollar.  The pressure on the Dollar remains strong, particularly in view of the ever-mounting US debt burden.

 

 

USA

 

time (et) report period Actual Consensus
forecast
previous
MONDAY, Oct. 18
9:15 am Industrial production Sept. -0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
10 am Home builders' index Oct. 16 13 13

 

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Rose to Four-Month High BL

NAHBLuxury-Goods Sales Seen Highest Since 2007 BL

Industrial production, Capacity Utilization down in September FED

 

2- EU BANKING CRISIS

   

 

3- BOND BUBBLE

 

M2 Update- 14th Consecutive Weekly Increase Even As Main Street Accelerates Cash Withdrawal From Banks  ZH
The only thing mirroring the relentless outflow from stocks these days (now in their 23rd week) is the increase in the M2 money supply: the week ending October 4th was the 14th consecutive weekly increase in the broadest money aggregate compiled by the Fed which hit $8,752.4 billion, an increase of $20 billion from the $8,732.8 billion the week before. Curiously, the Fed decided to massively revise all previous numbers (as if the amount of money that goes in and out of a bank, and should be recorded electronically the second it happens is subject to change). Yet the strangest number to come out of the huge revision had to do with with the flow of money in and out of Small Denomination (under $100,000) time deposits, or in other words the place where the bulk of Main Street America parks their money for some pursuit of nominal yield. The kicker - since the beginning of the year there has not been one weekly inflow into small denomination time deposits! (go ahead and check it) It appears either the less than richest Americans need to constantly pull money out of the bank, as they give up yield (and in a Zero Interest Rate environment there is no yield to be given up) in order to pay their bills, or simply have decided to no longer keep their money with the big (and small) banks (as this includes both commercial banks and thrifts). Could the "starve the banks" campaign be working? If Americans succeed in pulling enough money from their banks via deposit redemption, coupled with the stock trading boycott, it will be the end of Wall Street post haste.

 

 

4- STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

 

Cities Use This Accounting Trick To Hide Massive Unfunded Pension Liabilities  BI

 

5- CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE

 


6-BANKING CRISIS II




7- RISK REVERSAL

 

 

8- COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

 

 

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II

 

How To Strategically Default On Your Mortgage And Make Life Miserable For Your Bank  BI

 

 

New research from Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh [PDF] projects a nearly 50% higher level of unfunded pension liabilities than most cities acknowledge.

Most cities use Entry Age Normal accounting, which assumes employees will retire at a normal age and not receive any increase in benefits.

A more accurate system is Present Value of Benefits accounting, which assumes employees will retire at a normal age after receiving typical salary and benefit increases.

 

Here's The Devious Reason Why Banks May Be Releasing A Wave Of Mortgage Modifications  BI

 

What might a banker do if he was sitting on a pile of defaulted mortgages and now the traditional route of foreclosure was blocked? Adding to the problems of the bankers is that there is no assurance that they even have a valid claim to foreclose given that so much of the paperwork is tainted.

One possible response would be to get all troubled borrowers to reaffirm their debt, the second is to get the trouble borrowers back to paying something on the mortgage, even if it were a fraction of what was formerly owed on a monthly basis. A loan modification would achieve both results. When a borrower signs up for a loan mod they sign new papers. A portion of this process will re-establish any loan balance that is due. The language in the mod could have new foreclosure terms that eliminate the banker’s problem with past tainted documentation. Once a borrower makes a few months of new lowered payments they are, in effect, confirming their acceptance of the new terms.

Most Mods go bust in six months. So little is accomplished from the lenders perspective. But what if the lenders motivation for doing a Mod was not to get a borrower to a loan balance and monthly nut that they could pay, but rather the motivation was to circumvent the foreclosure trap the lenders are in? A Mod could legally resolve the problems.

The story I have been hearing is that tens of thousands of Mod letters have been sent by servicers in the past few weeks. Anyone who had an application pending is all of sudden getting the happy news in the mail.

 

CNBC predicts Congress will retroactively legalize foreclosure fraud  Raw Story

 

Congress will pass a bill to "forgive" banks the potentially criminal errors made in foreclosure proceedings, a senior CNBC editor predicts.

In a blog column Friday, John Carney argues that lawmakers in DC won't allow the country's largest issuers of mortgages to suffer financial losses following revelations of numerous mishandled foreclosure proceedings, especially when bailing them out this time "won't cost taxpayers a dime."

Here’s what is going to happen: Congress will pass a law called something like “The Financial Modernization and Stability Act of 2010” that will retroactively grant mortgage pools the rights in the underlying mortgages that people are worried about. All the screwed up paperwork, lost notes, unassigned security interests will be forgiven by a legislative act....

The [foreclosure] crisis is not driven by economics. It is driven by legal rights. And there’s simply zero probability that the politicians in Washington are going to let Bank of America or Citigroup or JP Morgan Chase fail because of a legal issue.

Carney predicts that the lame-duck session of Congress following this November's elections will pass the law. "Every member of Congress ... who has been voted out of office will cast a vote for the bill. And the President will sign it."

 

Foreclosure Fraud & $45 Trillion Max Keiser

 

 

 

The Subprime Debacle: Act 2 Mauldin

 

Mortgage Mess Puts Homeowners in Limbo WSJ

Across the U.S., the mortgage mess is deepening the anxiety and uncertainty swirling around homeowners who are facing foreclosure.

 

10- EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM

 

 

11- PENSION & ENTITLEMENTS CRISIS



12- CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT


Lack of demand blamed for US jobs level  FT

13- GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSURANCE

 

 

14- CORPORATE BANKRUPTCIES

 

 

17- CHINA BUBBLE



19- PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES



 


OTHER TIPPING POINT CATEGORIES NOT LISTED ABOVE

 

24-RETAIL SALES

 

 

26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP

 

 

31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES

 

 

32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS

 




BP - British Petroleum

SULTANS OF SWAP: BP Potentially More Devastating then Lehman!

------------

 






   

CENTRAL BANKING MONETARY POLICIES, ACTIONS & ACTIVITIES

------------

 

Federal Reserve urged to act on economy  FT

Chicago Fed chief warns of ‘liquidity trap’

 

Desperate ECB- No Really, We're Going To Keep Printing Euros Like Crazy, Too!  BI

Euro leaders continue to fret that they're losing the currency war -- with the euro trading still at around $1.40 -- and are desperate to convince the world that they're happy to devalue their currency like everyone else.

Hence ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet is out with new comments rebuking Bundesbank leader Axel Weber, over Weber's call to end bond buying.

Trichet says the program shall continue, and has brought support throughout the ECB Council, contra Weber.

We're guessing though it will take more aggressive language than this to jabber down the euro right now


QE Is Futile -- The US Just Needs To Accept A Lower Standard Of Living For 10 Years  BI

The dawn of daredevil central bankers MW

 

 GENERAL INTEREST

 

 

FLASH CRASH - HFT - DARK POOLS

 

 

MARKET WARNINGS

 

Pension Funds Flee Stocks  WSJ
Corporate pension plans that once had almost 70% of their assets invested in the stock market have reduced that to about 45% as they seek to reduce volatility.

 

          

 

 

A Short History of Stock Dividends  dshort

 

The latest Standard & Poor's earnings spreadsheet (October 6) puts the annualized dividend yield at 1.93% and the indicated rate at 1.99% (The indicated dividend is the estimate for the next four quarters, based on what was paid in the most recent period).

The bottom of the 1982 bear market was a major turning point for stock dividends. For more than a century, the market's dividend yield had averaged nearly 5%. But since 1982 the yield has been virtually cut in half, falling as low as 1.1% in 2000 (first chart). A long-term comparison of the annualized rate of real growth for price and dividends also highlights the difference (second chart).

 

 

What happened? Investors shifted their focus from income streams to price appreciation, and the market was only too happy to accommodate. As a first-wave Baby Boomer, I see this shift as a result of three things:

A New Investor Class
The 401(k) plan was introduced in 1980. The following year the Economic Recovery Tax Act permitted all employees, in addition to those not covered by an employee retirement plan, to contribute to an IRA. The result has been the massive growth of a new investor class with a limited understanding of markets and risk. The bulge of Boomers became a windfall for Wall Street (the oldest having just turned 35 in 1981).

The popularity of tax-deferred savings vehicles reduced the appeal of dividend income. The goal of retirement savings is to grow the nest egg. Thus, the distinction between dividend yield and price appreciation quickly lost relevance. New companies saw little need to pay dividends. Many existing companies reduced their dividends and redirected those earnings to corporate growth (not to mention executive compensation).

The Disappearance of Risk
From the market bottom in 1982 to the peak in 2000, the S&P 500 increased by an astonishing annualized rate of 15% in nominal terms. Investor optimism flourished, and the perception of risk disappeared along with the secular bear that had savaged the market from the mid-1960s to 1982. The crash in 1987, which seemed so terrifying at the time, sparked the shortest bear market in modern history — a mere three months in duration with no accompanying recession.

The Gaming of the Market
With risk in hibernation, these accelerating market gains triggered an appetite for speculation. "Why invest only in my company's plan? I need a brokerage account!" For many people, trading replaced investing, encouraged by the likes of CNBC's Mad Money, Fast Money, and the erstwhile Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge. In taxable trading accounts, dividends became little more than a recordkeeping nuisance. In IRAs, tracking dividends was completely irrelevant. In-the-know investors moved their IRA accounts to online brokerages for easy trading on the Internet.

But, the investment world has undergone a dramatic after the one-two punch of the Tech Crash and Financial Crisis. Risk has returned with a vengeance. Aging Boomers may finally recognize the value of dividend income, especially as their paycheck days draw nearer to a close. Perhaps dividends will someday reemerge as a mainstay of investing. The one certainty is this: it won't happen overnight. But if the flight from equities continues, publicly traded companies may eventually rediscover the power of dividends to coax a risk-adverse generation back to the markets.

There are still some good companies out there with a history of increasing dividends. But these are more the exception than the rule.

 

Percent Buy Index Versus Bullish Percent Index Swenlin

 

Art Cashin Explains Why The Stock Market Is Broken, Shares More Perspectives On Hyperinflation  ZH
In today's interview with King World News, Art Cashin confirms that through its endless meddling, intervention and manipulation over the past two years, the Fed has essentially broken the market: "You used to have markets that were not particularly correlated. The asset classes now seem to be so heavily dominated and in inverse relationship to the dollar, and in direct relationship to the euro... It's frustrating having honed my skills over 50 years to be able to interpret news, and look at a piece of economic data, and try and outwit the rest of the world by figuring out how it would work, and now all you have to do is look and see how the dollar is reacting and know how everything else works. And that huge correlation is not good for people because if everything is correlated in a basket like that, it is very difficult for people to hedge and protect themselves, and therefore when assets move they tend to move altogether." In other words, step aside Value Investor Congress - meet Lack of Value Dollar Correlation Congress. But readers have known that for over three months. Just as they know that lately the biggest concern on Cashin's mind is hyperinflation "the difficulty is while you can get what appears to be nominal benefit out of [hyperinflation], when you try to convert to a hard asset, or even use it to try to buy a needed good, and the perfect example is Zimbabwe. If you were from out of space, and just could get the records of the Zimbabwe stock market you would say, "wow, they are having a pretty good time down there." But they are going up because the assets they hold are going higher and higher in a debased currency." And Cashin on his hyperinflationaty musings from earlier in the week: "My hope is that we don't get anything like that - hyperinflation would be destructive to civilization... But you are right, not only Zero Hedge, I think that was the most emailed comment that day all over the country." He may well be right. And he is certainly right about the Shazam moment: "Money only gets velocity when you lend it or spend it. The difficulty with studying things like the Weimar republic, is that the money supply growing drastically the initial reaction was small. There was very little doing, and it went slowly, until it went suddenly, and when it went suddenly, it went parabolic."

 

Goldman Sachs Admits The Truth- "The Economy Is Not The Market And QE2 Is Not A Panacea"  ZH

 
In a stunning turn of honesty, Goldman's David Kostin does a 180 and renounces everything that the Fed wishes the gullible public would swallow hook line and sinker. But first the facts: while the strategist has no choice but to raise his 12 month S&P forecast (this is a new development for all the headline chasers) from 1,250 to 1,275, which is a token nothing compared to the recent 12 month gold price boost from $1,365 to 1,650. This merely reinforces the Zero Hedge view that gold has now become the natural, higher beta, and unlimited upside short hedge to stocks. Indeed, a 1% boost in the S&P PT, is meager compared to the 20% expected gold appreciation. And digging between the facts, we encounter this stunning admission, that would force all current and former Fed chairmen to spin in their graves, assuming a deceased state is attributed them all: "The economy is not the market and QE2 is not a panacea." Read that again, because this is only the first time in history a sellside advisor, especially one who works for Goldman Sachs, has said this truth so fundamental, that nobody actually dares to admit it, least of all the public or the Fed. Below, we present the latest strategy piece by David Kostin which is probably about the most bearish note released by the traditionally permabullish successor to Abby Cohen.

 

 

 

 

 

CURRENCY WARS

 

Why the U.S. Has Launched a New Financial World World War Michael Hudson

 
What is to stop U.S. banks and their customers from creating $1 trillion, $10 trillion or even $50 trillion on their computer keyboards to buy up all the bonds and stocks in the world, along with all the land and other assets for sale in the hope of making capital gains and pocketing the arbitrage spreads by debt leveraging at less than 1 per cent interest cost? This is the game that is being played today.Finance is the new form of warfare – without the expense of a military overhead and an occupation against unwilling hosts. It is a competition in credit creation to buy foreign resources, real estate, public and privatized infrastructure, bonds and corporate stock ownership. Who needs an army when you can obtain the usual objective (monetary wealth and asset appropriation) simply by financial means? All that is required is for central banks to accept dollar credit of depreciating international value in payment for local assets. Victory promises to go to whatever economy’s banking system can create the most credit, using an army of computer keyboards to appropriate the world’s resources. The key is to persuade foreign central banks to accept this electronic credit.

 

Fed Stance Knocks Down Dollar for 5th Week Newsmax.com

 

FT in depth- Currency wars  FT

 

Controls on currencies ‘doomed’  FT

 

Both China and US are at fault in currency war  FT

 

The Last Resort Of A Dying Economic System- From "Beggar Thy Neighbor" To "Beggar Thyself"  ZH

 
The phrase of the week comes from The Privateer's Bill Buckler, who has coined the one term that best describes the lunacy that has gripped the world: "Beggar Thyself." Unlike the 1930s when the theme of the day was "beggar thy neighbor" and which culminated in World War 2, this time the emerging paradigm is one in which the first to defect wins... if only for a few seconds. Because when the "beggar thyself" process is complete, it will mark the end of not only the central banking regime, and the days of excess wealth accrual to the financiers of the world, but also the termination of the 140 year old Bismarckian "welfare state" which is the primary culprit for the creation of trillions of imaginary wealth out of thin paper. When the fiat system ends, so will end the hallucination that developed societies are capable of providing for their hundreds of millions of existing and future retirees. And with that will come the "social instability" that always marks the closure of a failed monetary regime and the admission of global bankruptcy.

 

Q3 EARNINGS

 

 

MARKET & GOLD MANIPULATION

 

Currency War Germany about to lose 66 Percent of its gold reserves Chaos Theorien

 

AUDIO / VIDEO

 

 

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"The global financial system continues to be unsound in the same way that a Ponzi scheme is unsound: there are not enough cash flows to ultimately service the face value of all the existing obligations over time. A Ponzi scheme may very well be liquid, as long as few people ask for their money back at any given time. But solvency is a different matter - relating to the ability of the assets to satisfy the liabilities."

John Hussman
No Margin of Safety, No Room for Error


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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.ont>

 

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

         

TODAY'S NEWS

MONDAY

10-18-10

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WE HAVE IT ANALYZED & INCLUDED IN OUR LATEST RESEARCH PAPERS!

 

 

ACCEPTING PRE-ORDERS

 

 

 




 

         

TIPPING POINTS

1-SOVEREIGN DEBT & CREDIT CRISIS

2-EU BANKING CRISIS
3-BOND BUBBLE

4-STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT

5-CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE
6-BANKING CRISIS II
7-RISK REVERSAL

8-COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

9-RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE - PHASE II
10-EXPIRATION FINANCIAL CRISIS PROGRAM
11-PENSION CRISIS

12-CHRONIC UNEMPLOYMENT

13-GOVERNMENT BACKSTOP INSUR.
14-CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY
 

15-CREDIT CONTRACTION II

16-US FISCAL IMBALANCES
17-CHINA BUBBLE
18-INTEREST PAYMENTS
19-US PUBLIC POLICY MISCUES
20-JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION SPIRAL
21-US RESERVE CURRENCY.
22-SHRINKING REVENUE GROWTH RATE
23-FINANCE & INSURANCE WRITE-DOWNS
24-RETAIL SALES
25-US DOLLAR WEAKNESS
26-GLOBAL OUTPUT GAP
27-CONFIDENCE - SOCIAL UNREST
28-ENTITLEMENT CRISIS
29-IRAN NUCLEAR THREAT
30-OIL PRICE PRESSURES
31-FOOD PRICE PRESSURES
32-US STOCK MARKET VALUATIONS
33-PANDEMIC
34-S$ RESERVE CURRENCY
35-TERRORIST EVENT
36-NATURAL DISASTER

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Book Review- Five Thumbs Up for Steve Greenhut's Plunder!  Mish

 

 

   

 

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Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, we recommend that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

Copyright and Disclaimer

© Copyright 2010, Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which the Gordon T Long. believes reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that the Gordon T Long. or its principals may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Gordon T Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from us.